SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's Severe Weather threat for this afternoon and evening highlights an ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT for portions of the TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS with possible LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS, SOME HAIL, and a COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES ... A MARGINAL RISK is in place for this region through the mid to late evening ... Be on the alert and watch for the forecast and weather alerts ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL ATLANTIC: INVEST 94L Current Trend and Future Forecast from the National Hurricane Center: A weak, non-tropical area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly well to the northeast and southeast of the low. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit any subtropical or tropical cyclone development during the next couple of days while the system meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Stewart NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a weakening frontal boundary that is pushing southward throughout the Southern Plains with the leading edge continuing to push on eastward across the Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic .. With this in mind, heavy rains will be the focus primarily along the boundary near the Western Gulf Coastal Regions ... The increasing risk for Flash Flooding is apparent as well .. Heavy snowfall in the forecast, some of this isolated, in the Central Rockies will be a thing to watch closely as well ... A deep, upper-level low progressing northeastward through Wednesday .. Upper-level energy over the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley is expected to progress eastward around this upper-level low to Main for this afternoon and then proceeding into Eastern Canada by Wednesday .. An area of widespread light snow and rain showers is forecast around the Great Lakes for this morning; with lake enhancement beginning over the favored downstream for later this afternoon and persisting into Wednesday .. Rain showers over the lower lakes is expected to taper on during the course of your Wednesday ... Finally, a low pressure system will begin to push southward from Canada into the Northern Rockies and High Plains bringing another opportunity for snow to the majority of the Northern Rockeis ... Heavy snowfall will be a likelihood in the higher elevations .. The snowfall expected to exapnd into the High Plains by mid week ... HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and HAPPY HALLOWEEN from the National Storm Channel, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster, Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer
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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's Severe Weather threat is NULL ... No organized severe weather is expected anywhere nationwide ... ISOLATED thunderstorms could become a possibility across portions of the Desert Southwest for tonight, otherwise, mainly quiet ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL ATLANTIC: INVEST 94L Current Trend and Future Forecast from the National Hurricane Center: A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system located about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly northeast through southeast of the center. This low could gradually acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics by the middle of the week while it meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Stewart TROPICAL PACIFIC: INVEST 93E Current Trend and Future Forecast from the National Hurricane Center: A small and nearly stationary low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward to west-northwestward during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Stewart NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has tropical moisture, from former Tropical Cyclone Philippe, drawing into the rapidly deepening low over the Northeast Coastal Regions ... This low will lift into New York State for today's forecast and continue to proceed into Quebec for Tuesday and Wednesday .. In the meantime, rainfall, heavy at times, will spread across portions of the Northeast and Great Lakes and persist for a couple of days, while diminishing over the Mid-Atlantic for today's outlook .. FLOOD WATCHES and WARNINGS will remain in place across the Northeast ... Light snow showers will be a possibility over the highest elevations of the Central Appalachians .. Strong winds are forecast near the deep low; majority of New England is under a HIGH WIND WATCH with STORM WARNINGS/HURRICANE FORCED WIND WARNINGS for the Coastal and Offshore Waters .. REMAIN ON ALERT! A frontal boundary extending from the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley and going southwestward to the Central High Plains will proceed eastward to the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Regions/Southeast to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coastal Region by Tuesday AM ... The associated surface low is expected with this frontal boundary be absorbed into the circulation around a very deep low over the Northeast as this low proceeds into Southern Canada for today ... Rain and light snow showers is expected in the forecast over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes and portions of the Northern Plains through late tonight ... Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast along the southern flank developing as it passes through the Central and Southern Plains .. Snowfall, heavy at times, is in the forecast for portions of the Central and Southern Rockies ... Finally, another low pressure storm system is forecast to surge southeastward from Canada into the Central and Northern Plains for Tuesday into Wednesday .. The system is expected to bring some wintry mix to the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains ... Be aware of this! HAVE A GREAT MONDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's Severe Weather threat is NULL ... No organized severe weather is expected anywhere nationwide ... A few general storms are possible in the Mid-Atlantic up the Seaboard ... Nothing severe expected! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL ATLANTIC: TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PHILIPPE is accelerating away from the Florida Peninsula but still producing Tropical Storm conditions across the Northwestern Bahamas ... As of 8 AM EDT: LOCATION: 27.6N 79.0W 55 MILES N of FREEPORT, GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND 100 MILES E of VERO BEACH, FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 32 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 MB OR 29.44" LATEST ADVISORIES: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas PHILIPPE is moving North at 32 mph and this motion will continue through Monday .. The forecast path of PHILIPPE will quickly move away from the Florida East Coast and the Northwestern Bahamas this morning, and then move over the open Westetn Atlantic by this afternoon .. Maximum sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts is in motion .. Some slight strengthening is forecast for the 24 to 36 hours, however, PHILIPPE is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight, and be absorbed by a extratropical low on Monday ... Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center of circulation ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the northern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This rainfall could cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in the mountainous terrain of Cuba. WIND FORECAST: Tropical storm conditions are expected to end in the warning area in Cuba this morning. Tropical storm conditions should continue across portions of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas this morning, but end by early afternoon. DISTURBANCE BEAR WATCHING IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC .. From the National Hurricane Center .... A non-tropical low pressure system has developed about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. This low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the middle of the week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi TROPICAL PACIFIC: NO TROPICAL SYSTEMS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has heavy thundershowers expected over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states as a cold frontal boundary proceeds through the region and warm, moist air advects onshore from the Atlantic Ocean ... Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast has a MODERATE RISK for excessive rainfall with potential FLASH FLOODING ... Low pressure along the boundary is expected to impact the Southern Appalachians and rapidly deepen as its proceed northward into the Northern Appalachians by Monday AM ... Rain, heavy at times, will develop along the frontal zone from the Central Appalachians to the Lower Great Lakes/Northern Appalachians and will spread into the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic by this afternoon's forecast ... Another surge of colder air is expected to proceed through the Central portions of the nation as a low pressure system expected to surge southward to the Upper Great Lakes/Western Ohio valley southward into the Southern High Plains by Monday .. Rainfall will develop from the Northern High Plains to the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley tonight; and into portions of the Central/Northern Rockeis by the overnight into Monday ... Light to moderate snowfall will develop over portions of the Central/Northern Rockies through the overnight into Monday with accumuations in the range of 4 - 8 inches with locally higher amounts expected as well .. Light snow showers are possible for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes through Monday afternoon ... HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Weather Forecaster / Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's Severe Weather threat for this afternoon and evening comes from a negative tilt disturbance over the Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic .. Also, have the northern fringe of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen beginning to affect South Florida and the Florida Keys .. These features triggered The Storm Prediction Center to issue the following, SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for this afternoon and evening across portions of Far Southern Florida and the Florida Keys where DAMAGING WINDS and a COUPLE TORNADOES are a possibility in the strongest storm cells in the region ... MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for this afternoon and evening for portions of Eastern North Carolina where some strong cells could contain ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS and a BRIEF TORNADO ... Be sure to remain on alert and have multiple sources to receive your latest forecast, statements, and weather alerts ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL ATLANTIC: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN: HEAVY RAINFALL is occurring across CUBA and the CAYMAN ISLANDS before spreading into SOUTH FLORIDA and THE FLORIDA KEYS for this afternoon/evening ... LOCATION: 19.7N 84.0W 155 MILES SSW of the ISLE of YOUTH 250 MILES SSW of HAVANA, CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 10 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB OR 29.68" LATEST ADVISORIES: TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS: Cuban Provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara ... Northwestern Bahamas TROPICAL STORM WATCH: Central Bahamas EIGHTEEN is moving NNE @ 10 mph and will be moving NE later today with an increase in forward speed and continuing through Sunday ... On the track of EIGHTEEN, the center of circulation will move across Western Cuba for this afternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the Northwestern Bahamas for Sunday morning ... Maximum sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts is in motion .. Strengthening is expected in the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a TROPICAL STORM later today ... HIGH ODDS of 90% is in motion ... RAINFALL FORECAST: The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and landslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND FORECAST: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas tonight or early Sunday. A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA and the FLORIDA KEYS from MIDDAY through THIS EVENING .. REMAIN ON ALERT!!! TROPICAL PACIFIC: TROPICAL STORM SELMA: LOCATION: 13.6N 88.9W 20 MILES S of SAN SALVADOR, EL SALVADOR MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 mB or 29.68" LATEST ADVISORIES: TROPICAL STORM WARNING: ENTIRE EL SALVADOR COASTAL REGION TROPICAL STORM WATCH: PACIFIC COASTAL GUATEMALA Tropical Storm SELMA is moving N at 9 MPH and the forecast path of SELMA should quickly weaken and dissipate over Central America by tonight ... Max Sustained Winds of 40 MPH with higher gusts .. SELMA forecast to rapid weakening with dissipation by tonight ... Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center of circulation ... East and Southeast of the center of circulation receiving these winds ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, and southern Honduras through Sunday. This rainfall could cause isolated flash floods, especially in mountainous terrain. WIND FORECAST: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the warning area. Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are possible within the watch area early this morning. Winds should diminish by late morning in the warning and watch areas. SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Selma are affecting portions of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions today. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has widespread rainfall expected along a cold frontal boundary as it proceeds through the Gulf States/Ohio and Tennesee Valleys/ Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for the next few days ... A few areas may have mix precipitation, or snow showers, on the backside of the frontal boundary where cold air will be infiltering in place ... As the cold frontal boundary approaches the Mid-Atlantic, heavy rainfall will enter the Appalachians and the Lower Great Lakes for this afternoon ... By Sunday's outlook, majority of the heavy rainfall will occur in the Northeast and New England with a SLIGHT OPPORTUNITY for FLASH FLOODING from Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey to Western Maine .. Portions of Upstate New York, Vermont, and Northern New Hampshire to Northwestern Maine could see isolated pockets of FLASH FLOODING through Monday morning ... Strong and gusty winds will accompany the system throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast ... The majority of the snowfall in the forecast will occur in the Upper Great Lakes for today; by Sunday, there could be an opportunity for a few light snow showers in the higher elevations in the West Virginia Mountains .. Snow will be a possibility across the Northern Rockies for the weekend as another system pushes southward from Canada with an associated cold frontal boundary there ... An upper-level ridge over the Western areas of the Nation will keep the majority of locations dry and warmer than normal with afternoon highs forecast up to 20 degrees ABOVE late October standards .. The Central and Eastern portions of the Nation will remain cool and seasonable for the next few days ... HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
NO SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated for today's outlook ... A few general storms could pop up in the Central Gulf Coast into the Southern Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys for this afternoon and evening hours ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL ATLANTIC: INVEST 93L From the National Hurricane Center ... Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development today and Saturday, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Increasing upper-level winds will make conditions less favorable when the system moves north of Cuba and merges with a cold front on Sunday. Interests in the Cayman Islands and central and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Brown TROPICAL PACIFIC: TROPICAL STORM SELMA: LOCATION: 10.8N 89.6W 210 MILES S of SAN SALVADOR, EL SALVADOR MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 5 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 mB or 29.68" LATEST ADVISORIES: TROPICAL STORM WARNING: ENTIRE EL SALVADOR COASTAL REGION Tropical Storm SELMA is moving NW at 5 MPH and this storm is expected to turn towards the North by early Saturday AM .. The center of SELMA is expected to approach the coastal areas of El Salvador on Saturday ... Max Sustained Winds of 40 MPH with higher gusts .. SELMA may increase in strength before making landfall in the next day or so ... Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center of circulation ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, southern Honduras and far western Nicaragua over the next couple of days. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in El Salvador and southern Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND FORECAST: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Selma are forecast to affect portions of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has much of Minnesota and portions of Northwestern Wisconsin getting their first taste of Winter ... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES and WINTER STORM WARNINGS are in effect with the first snowfall producing system of the season associated with low pressure slowly progressing Northeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes .. Forecast accumulations will be light to moderate for today with the highest amounts in the Arrowhead regions ... A 3-day accumulation forecast of 8 - 12" will be a possibility in Far Northeastern Minnesota .. Strong winds will make blowing and drifting snow a reality with hazardous travel expected ... A secondary axis of heavy snowfall will be expected from the Western Upper Peninsula of Michigan into Northern Wisconsin to the Northwest of the surface low through Saturday AM as lake enhanced snow showers sets up downwind of Lake Superior .. Be on Alert there! The cold frontal boundary is extending from the low center over the Upper Midwest will progress through the Ohio/Tennessee/Mississippi Valleys for the weekend outlook .. Showers and storms are expected along and ahead of the front .. Noticeably colder air will infilter behind the front for the Central areas of the Nation where temperatures will be as much as 20 degrees BELOW NORMAL for Late October standards ... Across the Southeast, showers and storms are expected and becoming more numerous across Florida as broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean become better organized ... Finally, across the Western areas of the Nation, we expect warm and dry conditions as the riding stays anchored for the weekend .. Portions of California, Oregon, and Nevada will have high temperatures as much as 25 degrees ABOVE NORMAL for Late October through the weekend ... HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
NO SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated for today's outlook ... No thunderstorms are expected to be in the forecast through tonight as well ... Quiet weather pattern. TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL ATLANTIC: INVEST 93L From the National Hurricane Center ... A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea and Central America continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Close proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system during the next 24 hours. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system to become more organized Friday and Saturday as it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and Cuba during the next couple of days. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Brown TROPICAL PACIFIC: Disturbance to watch closely in the North Pacific from the National Hurricane Center: An area of disturbed weather is located just west of the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward near the coast of Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America through Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Pasch NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook will talk about the powerful winds ahead and developing for the Northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest as a strong area of low pressure intensfies and proceeds eastward from the Dakotas into Northern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin for today's forecast ... HIGH WIND WARNINGS are already in effect with WIND ADVISORIES EXPECTED across the majority of the Dakotas, Wyoming, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Iowa .. Sustained winds are forecast in the 35 - 45 mph range with gusts to 60 expected ... A WINTER STORM WATCH is posted for eastern North Dakota into Northern Minnesota as rain will change over to snow likely to consist of limited visibilities and POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS for later today .. Significant snowfall accumulations are expected with several inches foreast for Minnesota near the Canadian border ... Stay Tuned and Be on Alert! This same low pressure storm system will gradually weaken as it progresses into northern Wisconsin on Friday into Northern Michigan for Saturday .. Rain showers changing over to snow showers are expected with some light accumulations, a possibility over Northern Wisconsin and Upper Peninsula of Michigan, exception of the extreme Western region of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan where 4 - 8" is expected in the forecast there ... South of this low pressure storm system, a strong cold frontal boundary is proceeding eastward across the Mississippi Valley while plunging on southward into the Southern Plains ... Showers and storms are in the forecast across the Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys for Friday .. Behind this front, cold high pressure ridge will set up in motion with high temperatures expected to be BELOW NORMAL across the majority of the Great Plains ... This will spread over the weekend inot the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valleys ... Meanwhile, in the Northeast, that low pressure will proceed North, with rainy conditions expected across the majority of New England for today, with the lingering low and front .. Drier conditions are expected for late Friday as the low finally departs into Canada ... Across the Southeast, we can expect showers and storms become more numerous in threat with a broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean becoming better organized and lifting into the Eastern portions of Canada ... Finally, across the West, dry and warm conditions prevailing with high temperatures remaining WELL ABOVE AVERAGE across the majority WEST of the Rockies .. Fire Dangers remaining very high and drought conditions continuing, but the winds have subsided which is very good news to try and put out the remaining wildfires in place ... HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
NO SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated for today's outlook ... A few general storms before the frontal boundary pulls out into the North Atlantic is a possibility across the New England Coastal Regions, nothing is expected to be concerning ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL ATLANTIC: INVEST 93L From the National Hurricane Center ... A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Nicaragua, Honduras, and the adjacent waters. Close proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for the next day or so. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system to become more organized later this week as it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will likely prevent further development by Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America and Cuba during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky TROPICAL PACIFIC: Disturbance to watch closely in the North Pacific from the National Hurricane Center: An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far eastern North Pacific in a day or two. Some additional development could subsequently occur as the system moves west-northwestward near the coast of Central America and southeastern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook will take our strong cold frontal boundary finally making it way out into the open waters of the Atlantic on the northern fringe .. However, there is a deep flow of moisture ahead of it with New England on the verge of heavy rainfall, especially in Maine, where forecast amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts locally expected as a wave of low pressure develops along the front and intensfies .. Some instances of FLASH FLOODING is a good possibility given the atmospheric dynamics in the region mentioned ... Colder and drier conditions prevailing in the wake of the front .. Wednesday PM bringing us another potent storm system sinking from Canada and bringing along with it a very strong surge of colder weather for the majority of the Plains and Midwest for the next few days .. Snow showers in the forecast to develop over the Rockies and then extending into Montana to Colorado, and another batch in the Eastern Dakotas to Minnesota expected as the surface low develops over the Upper Midwest on Friday ... Windy conditions in the wake of the front expected and making it feel like a touch of winter hit ... Finally, elsewhere across the Nation, we are continuing to deal with ELEVATED FIRE DANGER and a HEAT WAVE across Southern California fueled by Santa Ana Winds and will continue through the remainder of the week .. Cool down and the subsiding winds will finally give relief to cooler and drier conditions expected there along with the Intermountain West .. HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's threat for Severe Weather has a concerning nature over the Northeast and Western New England where The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL RISK in place for this afternoon and evening hours where a BRIEF TORNADO and LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS in some ISOLATED severe cells are a possiblity through the evening... Be sure to remain alert and have MULTIPLE SOURCES to receive updated forecast and weather advisories / warnings from the National Weather Service ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL ATLANTIC: From the National Hurricane Center ... Widespread cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure are located over the western Caribbean Sea, near the Central American coast. Close proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for the next day or two, however, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development to occur thereafter while the system moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has quite a ruckus of an Autumn storm slowly progressing across the Great Lakes is finally going to lift into Canada by the overnight ... There is a powerful cold frontal boundary associated with this system and extends southward from the circulation allowing an axis of moderate to heavy rainfall with some embedded thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast .. The heaviest rainfall for today will materialize over the New England region where forecast amounts up to 3 inches locally is a possibility and some higher amounts .. Flash Flooding is a good possibility as well .. Cooler and drier conditions prevailent behind the front ... Elsewhere, we are dealing with ongoing FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS across portions of California where the HEAT WAVE contineues with very dry and gusty Santa Ana winds .. Forecast highs remaining well into the 90s and 100s continue with EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS continuing as well ... Cool and drier conditions prevailent across the Plains and Intermountain West with no major systems on the horizon ... HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's threat for Severe Weather has a growing concern across the Mid Atlantic state for this afternoon and this evening ... Severe storms are expected in the forecast from Northern Florida into the Mid-Atlantic with the threat for DAMAGING WINDS, and the potential for a FEW TORNADOES .. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for portions of the Carolinas and Virginia for this hazardous forecast .. Be sure to be on alert for this afternoon and evening ... MARGINAL RISK in place elsewhere from Northern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic region for ISOLATED strong to a couple severe cells containing ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, and a possibility of a BRIEF WEAK TORNADO or TWO ... Be sure to remain alert and have MULTIPLE SOURCES to receive updated forecast and weather advisories / warnings from the National Weather Service ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Tropics are very quiet in both basin with nothing expected in the next few days. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a strong autumn system progressing and become better organized as two seperate low pressure consolidate over the Great Lakes through tomorrow's forecast ... Potent shortwave energy aloft over the Deep South is forecast to phase into this approaching upper level trough in the Midwest ... Fueling a lot of potential into the low that continues to stengthen .. A strong cold frontal boundary will trail southward from the low, bringing a swath of moderate to heavy rainfall along with embedded thunderstorms towards the Eastern Seaboard by tonight's forecast ... The heaviest rainfall will materialize across Southern Michigan in conjunction with the main low in New England, and 1 - 3 inches of rainfall with potential potential locally higher amounts expected .. Some FLASH FLOODING is pretty likely as well ... Elsewhere across the Nation, we can definitely be concerned for ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS across California with the next few days stating heat and drought conditions prevailing .. Gusty Santa Ana winds will fuel the current situation with afternoon highs well into the 90s and 100s through Tuesday with EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS in place ... Cooler and drier conditions will prevail across the Plains and Intermountain West with the surface high building there and enlarging ... HAVE A GREAT MONDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L. Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's threat for Severe Weather has moved into the Gulf States .. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a couple regions of MARGINAL RISK ... First one in Southeastern Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle where some storms could have a COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES and ISOLATED STRONG to DAMAGING WINDS for this afternoon and evening hours .... Same results of more into ISOLATED STRONG to DAMAGING WINDS for areas across the Northern High Plains for this afternoon and evening hours ... Be sure to remain alert and have MULTIPLE SOURCES to receive updated forecast and weather advisories / warnings from the National Weather Service ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Tropics are very quiet in both basin with nothing expected in the next few days. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has some heavy rainfall and higher elevation snowfall in the forecast for the main weather event across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies through late morning as this strong low pressure tracks on eastward .. This atmospheric river will pour on several inches of rainfall across Western Oregon and Washington states, some locations could receive locally over 5 - 7 inches before it tampers off by tonight .. Conditions will improve by Monday and into Tuesday with the strong upper level ridge building in and going well into Canada ... The cold frontal boundary tracking across the Mississippi Valley and Texas is continubing to bring the precipitation along, the worse of the Severe Weather is OVER with ... Some strong storms are possible for today's forecast across the Deep South into the Lower Mississippi Valley with moisture inflow from the Gulf enhancing the threat and this could lead to areas of heavy rainfall in the Southern Appalachians into Mississippi .. Be on Alert! Finally, mild weather will have one more day across the Eastern half of the country ahead of the strong cold frontal boundary with widespread 70s expected before the Autumn like coolness settles in by mid week .. FIRE WEATHER concerns continue with very dry to drought conditions in California and heat with the strong Santa Ana winds with widespread 90s and 100s expected across Southern California with a heat wave rising there .. Very concerning indeed ... HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
PLEASE KEEP IN MIND, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER COULD UPGRADE THIS FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON UPDATES .. THERE IS A POTENTIAL for a SMALL REGION OF A MODERATE RISK BEING CONSIDERED AS DYNAMICS IN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS SHOWN SOME POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL and NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS to the BORDER OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI, STAY TUNED FOR THE UPDATES and FOLLOW YOUR LOCAL FORECAST CLOSELY!!! We have a delicate situation unfolding for late this afternoon and evening hours especiall across South Central Plains into the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys .. The Storm Prediction Center has placed an ENHANCED RISK for severe storms across portions of Southeastern Kansas, Extreme Southwestern Missouri across Oklahoma, and near the Red River Valley of North Central and Northwestern Texas .. This region has the potential for SEVERE HAIL, DAMAGING TO DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, and A FEW TORNADOES (IN A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY before DUSK) Possible .. Folks in this region need to be on HIGHEST ALERT and listen closely to all updated forecast, advisories, and WARNINGS when issued ... Severe Weather Precautions are highly recommend for this event ... Please have multiple sources to receive your information from the National Weather Service or your local media outlet ... SLIGHT RISK been introduced for areas SURROUNDING the ENHANCED and ELSEWHERE from Northern Texas into the Southern Minnesota and Wisconsin border region .. This region has potential for ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE TO SEVERE HAIL, and a TORNADO or TWO in a brief window ... MARGINAL RISK been introduced for areas SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and EXTENDING into Western Wisconsin and the Edwards Plateau region in Texas ... ISOLATED GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS and SMALL to LARGE HAIL is the threat ... Be sure to remain alert and have MULTIPLE SOURCES to receive updated forecast and weather advisories / warnings from the National Weather Service ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Tropics are very quiet in both basin with nothing expected in the next few days. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has some heavy rainfall and higher elevation snowfall in the forecast for the main weather event across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies, same system that will bring the severe weather threat for tomorrow's event .. This is a very powerful low pressure storm system .. A lot of potential moisture transport will bring a forecast amount up to an inch or locally more of rain across Western Oregon and Washington state ... Some locations are forecast around three to four inches .. Be aware! Snowfall will be quite heavy at times across the higher mountain rainges in the Northern Rockies and Northern Cascades ... Cold frontal boundary progressing through the Rockies expecting to reach the Plains by tonight and with an amplifying upper level trough in place, the severe weather threat will rise as I've mentioned before ... Check out the Severe Weather Outlook above for details ... Finally, for the remainder of the Nation, we are expecting pleasant Autumn like feel across the Eastern half where temps will be mainly above normal in the 60s and 70s for the most part of the weekend before cooler temperatures will prevail behind the front for the early part of next week ahead ... Fire weather concerns will continue for the most part across portions of California and the wildfires continue as a threat with very dry and drought conditions with gusty winds in the forecast as well .. Be on Alert! HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer The last couple of days been very quiet, weather wise, across the nation and the tropics .. Things are ramping up on the horizon especially for the weekend across the Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley ... Let's get started ...
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK: Severe weather threat has appeared for this afternoon and evening hours where The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL RISK across portions of Southern New Mexico and Far Western Texas where some ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL and THUNDERSTORMS WIND GUST are possible ... Our Forecasting Team has their sights set on another possible severe weather event for the upcoming weekend with the pattern shift coming for the areas across the Central and Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley ... Strong trough will be carrying through in the Plains ... With a boundary associated with this with epic dynamics and forcing along and ahead of the front will provide the ingredients for strong to severe convective cells ... The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted for Saturday afternoon and evening with an ENHANCED RISK in place across Oklahoma and portions of Northern Texas where some LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, and a COUPLE TORNADOES are pretty much in place for the forecast ... SLIGHT RISK been introduced across Northwestern Texas into Eastern Kansas for the same hazards only slightly more ISOLATED in nature .. MARGINAL RISK in place from Central Texas to Southwestern Iowa for ISOLATED LARGE HAIL and ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ... This system is worth a very close watch for developments and any forecast changes up to then ... Stay on Alert and listen closely for all updates on this situation unfolding ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Tropics are very quiet in both basin with nothing expected in the next few days. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook consist of watching the cold frontal boundary that driving across the Pacific Northwest, precipitation on the rise for the Northern Rockies with heavy rainfall in the forecast for Western Washington and Northwestern Oregon where there is a good opportunity for flash flooding to occur .. In addition, higher elevation snowfall in the forecast for the Northern Cascades and Northern Sierra Nevada range ... As this frontal boundary pushes through across the Intermountain West for tomorrow's forecast, precipitation will follow suit -- snow tamping up along the foothills of the Northern Rockies ... Onshore flow will keep the rainfall and snowfall in the forecast for the Pacific Northwest for your Friday .. By the first of the weekend, a new frontal system will arrive and bring another potential round of heavy rainfall and higher elevation snowfall for the region ... We have a very slow progressive frontal boundary draped across South Florida for the next few days giving plenty of moisture in place on an easterly flow off the Atlantic to allow for showers and storms to continue in the afternoons and evenings ... The heaviest axis of precipitation will be along the Atlantic Coast and South Florida ... As an upper level trough approaches the Southwest and Southern Plains, this will fire off some convection in the forecast with an approaching upper level trough in Deep South Texas bringing the showers and storms there ... On Friday into Saturday, the moisture axis shifts to the middle and upper Texas coastal regions for scattered rain showers and storms there .. Finally, the strong cold frontal boundary pushing over the Intermountain West expecting to sweep the Plains and moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico will interact, tap, and with the instability in place, as I mentioned above, a line of showers and storms will develop in the Plains .. Heavy rainfall in the forecast with FLASH FLOODING from the Red River Valley into the Middle Mississippi Valley ... This will be the main event to watch closely ... HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather threat is not likely for your Monday's forecast ... Some sporadic, non severe storms are in the forecast for portions of the Southeast ahead and along the cold front, other than that, very quiet ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL ATLANTIC: We do have a tropical wave we are watching closely as an area of showers and storms associated with a board area of low pressure located near the Turks and Caicos Islands have increased overnight .. Although, the system is producing gusty winds near tropical storm forced, satellite imageries have suggested it is unorganized and lacking a center of circulation .. Upper level winds on the models have suggested in the forecast of a marginally conducive threat for any additional development in the next couple of days .. This system is tracking gradually northward and expected to become unfavorable for any further development by Wednesday with the disturbance expecting to be merging with the frontal boundary exiting the Southeastern United States ... ODDS are MODERATE at 40% for development according to the National Hurricane Center .... TROPICAL PACIFIC: There are two disturbances worth watching in the Tropical Pacific ... First one is a low pressure center about 850 miles to the WSW of the Baja Southern California Peninsula that is associated with a disturbance producing showers and storms that has increased and became better organized overnight .. We are only expecting to see an additional slight increase in organization and possibly seeing this become a TROPICAL DEPRESSION in the future by late this morning if anything .. The system is expected to move WNW into unfavorable environment that shall hinder any further indications of development after this time frame ... The National Hurricane Center gives this system a MODERATE ODD of 50% for TROPICAL DEPRESSION formation ... The other disturbance is a low pressure center located almost 1500 miles to the ESE of the Hawaiian Islands producing some disorganized area of showers and storms .. Strong upper level winds are in the vicinity of this system and a lot of dry air working in as well .. This favors some inhibiting factors for any further development for the next 48 hours as this system expected to move westward up to 15 mph .. The National Hurricane Center puts this system at VERY LOW ODDS of any further development at 10% ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook continues the progression of the strong cold frontal boundary that will finally exit the Eastern Seaboard by this afternoon while it continues to proceed into South Florida .. Showers and storms associated with the boundary will continue with lingering precipitation along the Coastal Regions through tomorrow morning and this could lead to ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING .. As this frontal system passes on by, drier conditions will prevail .. However, easterly flow with deep tropical moisture to the state ahead of the front could deliver heavy rainfall especially along the Eastern Seaboard through Wednesday .. With Thursday showing a possibility of the front stalling across Southern Florida keeping this tropical transport in place that will continue the unsettled wet pattern for them ... In the wake of the front, cooler and seasonal temperatures will prevail across New England to the Southern Plains .. However, a moderating trend is in the forecast for the Central / Western areas of the Nation with mid week temperatures in the Southeast, Florida, and the Pacific Northwest going above normal with drier conditions .. Weather pattern will turn quieter ... HAVE A GREAT MONDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather threat is a major story brewing for the Nation on this Sunday.. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK for this afternoon and evening from Northwestern Pennsylvania across Northern / Western New York mainly for Damaging Winds up to 60 mph and possible higher gusts in the stronger cells .. MARGINAL RISK been introduced surrounding the SLIGHT RISK and elsewhere from Eastern Ohio into Northeastern New York ahead of the strong cold front .. A few strong cells could have Strong Gusty Winds of 40 up to the criteria of 59 to 60 mph gusts ... Be on Alert for this potential threat! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: HURRICANE OPHELIA -- CATEGORY 2 OPHELIA is a Category 2 hurricane expecting to aim for IRELAND .. Expected to forecast to become a Post Tropical Cyclone by tonight's outlooks ... LOCATION: 39.0N 18.3W 475 MILES E of THE AZORES 965 MILES SSW of MIZEN HEAD, IRELAND MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 105 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 35 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 MB or 28.47" OPHELIA is moving NE at 35 MPH and expecting to continue NE with a greater increase in forward speed and a turn to the NNE for tonight .. The Center of OPHELIA will approach IRELAND on Monday ... Max Sustained Winds of 105 mph with higher gusts, OPHELIA is forecast for some additional weakening on Monday, forecast to become a POST TROPICAL CYCLONE with HURRICANE FORCED WINDS as it approaches IRELAND on Monday ... Hurricane Forced winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outward up to 150 miles from the center of circulation ... WIND FORECAST: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to completion by this afternoon. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL FORECAST: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less. STORM SURGE FORECAST: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER on INVEST 92 L: The broad area of low pressure NHC has been tracking for a few days is now centered a little more than 100 miles north of Puerto Rico. The low is producing numerous showers and a few squalls mainly to the east of the center. Further development of this system, if any, will likely occur while the low and its associated activity move toward the northwest and north during the next two to three days. After that time, this system is expected to merge with a cold front. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Avila TROPICAL PACIFIC: Latest from the National Hurricane Center on INVEST 91E: A low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, cold SSTs and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a strong cold frontal boundary stretching across the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains that is now progressing eastward for the next couple of days ... A line of showers and storms along and ahead of the front is threatening of some flash flooding and potential severe wather for today, but weakening as the day progresses ... By tomorrow AM, expect that front approaching the Eastern Seaboard and the Central Gulf Coast .. The front should clear Florida on Tuesday before giving some showers and storms there .. In the wake of the front, cooler and drier conditions will prevail and bring Autumn like conditions back to the Eastern areas of the Nation ... The upper level ridge centered of the West Coast will keep this portions of the Nation abnormally dry and warmer than normal .. This will hamper with combining dry and gusty Santa Ana Winds fueling more of the wildfires across Southern California and continuing the elevated fire danger in the vicinity .. The elevated fire threat is also spreading into Southeastern Wyoming .. Be aware of this factor as the ridge weakens on Monday ... HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather threat is a major story brewing for the Nation on this Saturday .. ENHANCED RISK has been introduced by The Storm Prediction Center across portions of Northern Missouri, Southern Iowa, Northern Illinois, and Southeastern Wisconsin where some impressive dynamics and atmospheric convective destabilization will occur .. We are looking at impressive DAMAGING TO DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTING UP TO 80 MPH at times in some of the strongest supercells .. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL up to 3" in DIAMETER POSSIBLE LOCALLY HIGHER DIAMETER .. A FEW TORNADOES can't be ruled in the strongest cells .. VERY HEAVY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with URBANIZED FLOODING and FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED .. FREQUENT LIGHTNING FOR CERTAIN ... SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for areas from Northern Oklahoma to Central / Southern Lower Michigan where the main threat is DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, TORNADOES, and some HAIL ... MARGINAL RISK been placed surrounding the SLIGHT RISK and extending across portions of Northwestern Texas ... Be sure to have multiple sources to receive your forecast and weather alerts and PLEASE REMAIN ON ALERT and WEATHER AWARE! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: HURRICANE OPHELIA -- CATEGORY 2 OPHELIA is a Category 2 hurricane expecting to pass to the SE of The Azores for this evening ... LOCATION: 33.9N 28.6W 295 MILES WSW of THE AZORES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 24 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 MB or 28.68" OPHELIA is moving NE at 24 MPH and expecting to continue ENE with a greater increase in forward speed and a turn to the NE expected on Sunday ... Track of OPHELIA will head by the S and SE of the Southeastern Azores by tonight into early Sunday ... Max Sustained Winds of 100 mph with higher gusts, OPHELIA has little change in strength in the forecast for today, however, expected to remain a powerful cyclone in the next of couple of days as she heads for Ireland... Hurricane Forced winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center of circulation ... WIND FORECAST: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores beginning this afternoon or tonight, primarily due to an approaching cold front. RAINFALL FORECAST: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores through Saturday night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores. FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER on INVEST 92 L: Radar and surface observations from the eastern Caribbean indicate that a broad area of low pressure is gradually approaching the Leeward Islands. This low is accompanied by showers and squalls mainly to the east of the center, and this activity is expected to spread westward over the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands today and Sunday. Upper-level winds are expected to be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, but the environment could turn favorable for some development early next week when the system begins to move northward and then recurves over the west-central Atlantic Ocean. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Avila TROPICAL PACIFIC: Latest from the National Hurricane Center on INVEST 91E: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure centered about 700 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has increased over the past few hours. Environmental conditions are expected support additional development for the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the trough of low pressure centered over the Western areas of the Nation and is shifting the axis into the Plains, this morning, in the wake of that, snowfall is expected in the forecast across the higher elevations of Wyoming; these snow showers are expected to end tonight as this trough tampers off eastward ... A developing surface low pressure center with an associated cold frontal boundary is proceeding across the Plains while a warm frontal boundary is stretching across the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, this morning, stalling out .. Showers and storms developing along the frontal boundary and continuing to proceed eastward .. This system is responsibile for the severe weather threat for today's forecast, please refer to the severe weather portions of the digest for details on that ... In the wake of the strong cold frontal boundary on Sunday, temperatures are expected to fall at least 10 degrees Below Normal for mid October standards bringing more of an Autumn feel to the air across the eastern half of the Nation ... Finally, easterly flow across the state of Florida with deep moisture and instability in place continues to pour in the showers and storms in the forecast and will be confined to South Florida and the Keys by Monday ... Meanwhile, the upper level ridge will be centered along the West Coast for the short term period and this is bringing an unfortunate reality to the region affected by the dangerous wildfires in portions of California where the conditions will worsen with the above average temperatures and severe drought conditions .... HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather threat is a possibility for this afternoon and evening with The Storm Prediction Center issuing a MARGINAL RISK threat for portions of Southern Iowa and Northern Illinois ... The Southern High Plains into Central Kansas ... Some cells could contain some Small to Large Hail for the main threat ... Very heavy rainfall with poorly drained and low lying flooding .. Frequent Dangerous Lightning as well .. Be on Alert! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: HURRICANE OPHELIA -- CATEGORY 2 OPHELIA is moving faster towards the east and northeast .... LOCATION: 31.1N 33.9W 615 MILES SW of THE AZORES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 105 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 8 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 MB or 28.65" OPHELIA is moving ENE at 8 mph and this motion with a faster speed is in the forecast through Saturday with a turn towards the NE with an additional increasing speed for Saturday Night ... On the track of OPHELIA, the center will pass near or to the SE of the Southeastern Azores for Saturday and Saturday Night .. Max Sustained Winds of 105 mph with higher gusts, OPHELIA could have some slight Weakening in the next 24 - 48 hours ... Hurricane Forced winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center of circulation ... RAINFALL FORECAST: 2 to 4 inches is possible with higher amounts locally possible for the Southeastern Azores for the weekend .. A cold frontal boundary and moisture associated with OPHELIA is expected to produce a total rainfall amount of 1 to 3 inches for the islands of the Azores and could produce flooding ... A NEW DISTURBANCE in the CENTRAL ATLANTIC is BEAR WATCHING from The National Hurricane Center .... Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and passes north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development early next week while the system begins to move northward over the west-central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Brennan TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN: A disturbance bear watching closely as well ... A nearly stationary low pressure system centered about 750 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible through the next several days, and a tropical depression could form while the system begins moving toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a digging upper level trough in the Western areas of the Nation that is bringing potentially unsettled conditions throughout the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies ... Meanwhile, onshore Pacific flow is expecting to drive the moisture across the region for accumulating snowfall for portions of Washington and Oregon Cascases in addition to the Northern Rockies .. Snowfall will be heavy at times up to a foot, locally higher amounts are possible ... The trough is expected to slide eastward overnight and will be over the Great Basin for Saturday morning .. Lingering snow showers expected for the Northern Rockies ... The majority of this will come to an end ... An upper level trough shifting into the Plains, a surface cold frontal boundary will strengthen as it proceeds from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley on Saturday ... This frontal system is expected to stall across the Plains and Midwest and will be the focal point of Severe Weather for tomorrow afternoon and evening hours with a SLIGHT RISK in place by The Storm Prediction Center as showers and storms develop .. Strong to severe cells will be capable of producing some HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS ... The frontal system will then push on eastward into the Upper Midwest by tomorrow PM .. Heavy rainfall is expected to develop along the frontal boundary and this will pose a risk for flash flooding from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains through Sunday AM ... Finally, an eastern wave is passing through the state of Florida and proceeding into the Gulf of Mexico overnight .. The easterly flow pattern is bringing tons of moisture and instability across the state ... Consequently developing showers and storms for Florida for the weekend ... HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather threat is not expected for today and through the next few days as the pattern begins to settle across the Nation ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: HURRICANE OPHELIA -- CATEGORY 1 OPHELIA is moving slowly northeastward over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean ... LOCATION: 30.3N 35.6W 725 MILES WSW of THE AZORES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 3 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 MB or 29.12" OPHELIA is moving NE very slowly at 3 mph and this general motion will continue for today before a faster speed motion to the ENE or NE on Friday ... Max Sustained Winds of 85 mph with higher gusts, OPHELIA could have some slight strengthening in the next 24 - 48 hours ... Hurricane Forced winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center of circulation ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has some upper level energy over the Northeast that is expected to taper off over the Western Atlantic in the forecast for the overnight ... This system is producing a few areas of light rain showers over portions of the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic expecting to end over the region for late ... Right now, dealing with onshore flow from the Atlantic that has develop over the Northern Mid-Atlantic and this is moving Southward for tonight and then throughout your Friday and Friday PM before tapering off ... Light rain showers and drizzle will contineu in the forecast ... Some upper level energy and easterly flow off the Atlantic will continue to spawn a few showers and storms for the Florida Peninsula through Friday as well ... The frontal boundary associated with low pressure over the Northern Plains and extending into the Central Rockies and Great Basin is expected to slowly progress for the weekend outlook for the Upper Great Lakes extending into the Middle Mississippi Valley then into portions of the Central and Southern High Plains through Friday PM .. In the meantime, moisture is pooling along that front aiding in developing showers and thunderstorms for portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday through the weekend and then moving through the Great Lakes with moisture transport from the Atlantic to produce light rain showers for the Great Lakes through the weekend ... Finally, the onshore Pacific flow will continue through Friday across the Pacific Northwest and then some rain showers and higher elevation snow showers will begin to develop over the region and then proceeding into the Northern Intermountain Region through Friday PM .. Snowfall will develop as well over the Northern Rockies for the weekend ... HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF National Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather threat is not expected for today and through the next few days as the pattern begins to settle across the Nation ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA OPHELIA is moving SE and strengthening, expected to become a CAT 1 HURRICANE by tonight or tomorrow AM ... LOCATION: 30.2N 37.0W 785 MILES WSW of THE AZORES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: SE @ 6 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 MB or 29.42" OPHELIA is moving SE very slowly and expected to turn to the SE to ESE with reduction in forward speed through Tomorrow PM, followed by a turn to the ENE by tomorrow late PM into Friday ... Max Sustained Winds of 65 mph with higher gusts, OPHELIA is expected to strengthening to a CAT 1 HURRICANE by tonight or tomorrow AM ... Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center of circulation ... NATIONAL FORECAST: National trends are becoming increasingly settled ... For today, the frontal system and associated boundary extending from the Ohio Valley to the Central Gulf States is progressing very slowly to the aeast to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast with showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the boundary from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley .. These will expand into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast for tonight ... Northern Mid-Atlantic will have this in the forecast through tomorrow PM ... Again, for tomorrow afternoon, the showers and storms will re-develop along that boundary over portions of the Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast with rainfall developing over the Western Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes that will then proceed eastard for the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast for tonight into tomorrow PM ... Finally, that frontal system with the associated boundary in Northern California into the Northern Rockies will proceed on eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Central Plains into the Central Rockies by tomorrow PM ... Behind the frontal boundary, onshore flow will stream Pacific moisture into the Northwest for rain showers and higher elevation snowfall for the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains through tomorrow PM .. The snow levels in the Cascades will lower and into the Northern Rockies as well in the wake of the boundary ... HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather threat is a good possibility for this afternoon and evening hours across portions of Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys where The Storm Prediction Center has placed a MARGINAL RISK in place for a few strong wind gusts with a possibility of a weak TORNADo or TWO as well .. Be on Alert! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA OPHELIA expected to become a HURRICANE in a day or so ... LOCATION: 31.9N 38.8W 790 MILES WSW of THE AZORES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: SE @ 3 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 MB or 29.59" OPHELIA is moving SE very slowly and expected to remain in this motion through the next 24 - 48 hours ... She is expected to become a HURRICANE by Wednesday with TROPICAL STORM forced winds extending outward up to 105 miles from the center of circulation ... No threat to land masses in the days to come ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's forecast has a slow proceeding frontal boundary extending across the Lower Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley and then heading Southward into the Lower Mississippi and Western Gulf Coast, this front merges with a boundary over the Mid-Atlantic by tonight ... This frontal boundary is then forecast to move eastward into the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic going southward into the Carolinas and the Southeast by Wednesday evening ... Forecast calling for rain showers and thunderstorms develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary from the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley into the Western Gulf Coast that will then proceed eastward for the Western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by tonight ... Overnight Tuesday, we expect the axis of precipitation to dissipate over the Tennessee Valley while continuing over the Ohio Valley eastward into portions of the Mid-Atlantic by tomorrow AM ... On Wednesday, the axis of precipitation will redevelop along that frontal boundary and ahead in the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the evening hours .. In addition, rain shower will develop over the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley and then expand in the Great Lakes for Wednesday AM .. The rain will then end in the Central Plains by tonight and then over the Middle Mississippi Valley for tomorrow AM .. We do a new system and front moving into the Pacific Northwest for today and will move on inland to the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies into the Great Basin through tomorrow night ... Rain showers will develop into portions of the Northwestern Coastal Regions through the Intermountain West by tomorrow AM and into the Northern Rockies tomorrow PM .. Additionally, snow showers in the highest elevations are possible for the Cascades and Northern Rockies through tomorrow PM with several inches of accumulations possible ... HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather threat is a good possibility for this afternoon and evening hours across Southeastern Kansas into Eastern Oklahoma where The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK in place for some storms containing DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL with URBANIZED FLOODING, and a COUPLE TORNADOES ... MARGINAL RISK is in place across areas surrounding the SLIGHT RISK and from Southeastern Missouri into Northeastern Texas ... Be on alert, make sure to have multiple sources for weather statements and to receive weather alerts ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Good news is Post Tropical Storm NATE is no more .. NATE is history and dissipated in threat, nothing more than an area of disturbance for the Northeast and Mid Atlantic ... We do have a general interest area in the Northern Atlantic bearing to watch closely as the National Hurricane Center released a forecast .... INVEST 91L is now TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN E No Threat to Land ... LOCATION: 31.1N 39.9W 875 MILES WSW of The AZORES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 3 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 MB or 29.77" 17-E is moving north and this will continue with a turn to the East and then east southeast by later tonight or Tuesday ... Max sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts .. Some strengthening is expected and the depression will become a TROPICAL STORM by later today or tonight ... NATIONAL FORECAST: A frontal boundary extending across the Lower Great Lakes into Northern Appalachians to the Central Appalachians and Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains is expected to be NORTH of Nate today ... The western edge of the boundary is dissipating ... That front will begin to also dissipate as NATE becomes post-tropical ... Showers and storms developing along and near the boundary and expected for the Northeast to the Ohio Valley ... These showers and storms will taper off the coastal Northeast by this evening ... The showers and storms will continue over the Ohio Valley and Northern Mid Atlantic by late tonight ... Rainfall will surge northward during the overnight into Monday for the Ohio valley into the Northern Appalachians lifting into Northern New England by tomorrow night ... In the wake of NATE, need to mention that tropical moisture is expected to continue over the Southeast into the Southern Mid Atlantic then expected to surge northward into the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley for Monday ... Weak, upper level impulses are expected to aid in production of showers and storms in the forecast for the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley eastward into the Southeast and Southern Mid Atlantic for Monday's Forecast ... Finally, a strong cold frontal boundary over the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains and then westward into the Central Rockies and Great Basin expected to advance eastward into the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and then southward into the Middle Mississippi Valley, Southern Plains by tomorrow PM ... The system is expected to produce rainfall over the Pacific Northwest Coastal Regions with snowfall in the higher elevations of the Cascades for this morning and then ending this afternoon ... Snow and lower elevation rainfall will begin to develop over portions of the Northern Intermountain REgions into the Northern Rockies for today's forecast ... The snow and lower elevation rainfall will being to move into the Central Rockies by this evening continuing over the Central Rockies into the Southern Rockies for your Monday into Monday PM ... Rain showers will develop also over the Central High Plains and Central Plains for Monday's forecast as well ... HAVE A GREAT MONDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Weather Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather threat is apparent where TROPICAL STORM NATE is moving through across the Southeast into the Lower Tennessee Valley and the Carolina Piedmont .. A MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for portions of the Florida Panhandle to the Western Carolinas for this afternoon and evening where a couple BRIEF and WEAK TORNADOES are possible with TROPICAL STORM NATE ... Be on the alert and have MULTIPLE SOURCES of receiving the latest statements and weather alerts ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM NATE: NATE is RAPIDLY WEAKENING but the storm surge flooding continues to cause major problems ... Heavy rainfall is spreading throughout the Southeastern States as we speak ... LOCATION: 32.0N 88.0W 50 MILES ESE of MERIDIAN, MISSISSIPPI 95 MILES WSW of MONTGOMERY, ALABAMA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 23 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 MB or 29.35" CURRENT ADVISORIES SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border eastward to Indian Pass Florida NATE is moving towards the NNE @ 23 MPH and a turn to the northeast with a faster motion is expected in the next couple of days as NATE will continue to move inland across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and Central Appalachians through Monday Night ... Max sustained winds of 45 mph with higher gusts .. NATE expected to continue rapid weakening as he moves further inland and degenerate to a remnant low later tonight into Monday ... TROPICAL STORM forced winds extend outward up to 150 miles from the center of circulation ... Water levels of around 3.0 to 3.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) have recently been reported by National Ocean Service gauges at Pensacola, Florida, and Mobile Bay, Alabama. RAINFALL FORECAST: East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. FLASH FLOODING IS VERY POSSIBLE IN THESE INDICATED REGIONS! WIND FORECAST: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the tropical storm warning area for the next couple of hours. STORM SURGE FORECAST: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...5 to 8 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...3 to 5 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border...1 to 3 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Isolated tornadoes are possible today, mainly from the Florida Panhandle and Eastern Alabama to the Northern and Western areas of Georgia ... BE ON ALERT! We do have a general interest area in the Northern Atlantic bearing to watch closely as the National Hurricane Center released a forecast .... Shower activity associated with a nearly stationary low pressure system located about 750 miles southwest of the Azores has changed little since yesterday. However, this low still has the potential to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development by tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Stewart NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is NATE impacting the Southeastern United States with heavy rainfall and brief tornadoes through tonight's outlook ... Showers and storms will be expected in the Tennesee and Southern Ohio Valleys to the Southern Appalachians for the overnight through Monday's forecast ... NATE is rapidly weakening and is expected to become a remnant low by tomorrow night's outlooks ... In addition, NATE is expected to become post tropical with rainfall expected in the forecast for portions of New England by tomorrow night ... A frontal boundary extending across the Lower Great Lakes into Northern Appalachians to the Central Appalachians and Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains is expected to be NORTH of Nate today ... The western edge of the boundary is dissipating ... That front will begin to also dissipate as NATE becomes post-tropical ... Showers and storms developing along and near the boundary and expected for the Northeast to the Ohio Valley ... These showers and storms will taper off the coastal Northeast by this evening ... The showers and storms will continue over the Ohio Valley and Northern Mid Atlantic by late tonight ... Rainfall will surge northward during the overnight into Monday for the Ohio valley into the Northern Appalachians lifting into Northern New England by tomorrow night ... In the wake of NATE, need to mention that tropical moisture is expected to continue over the Southeast into the Southern Mid Atlantic then expected to surge northward into the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley for Monday ... Weak, upper level impulses are expected to aid in production of showers and storms in the forecast for the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley eastward into the Southeast and Southern Mid Atlantic for Monday's Forecast ... Finally, a strong cold frontal boundary over the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains and then westward into the Central Rockies and Great Basin expected to advance eastward into the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and then southward into the Middle Mississippi Valley, Southern Plains by tomorrow PM ... The system is expected to produce rainfall over the Pacific Northwest Coastal Regions with snowfall in the higher elevations of the Cascades for this morning and then ending this afternoon ... Snow and lower elevation rainfall will begin to develop over portions of the Northern Intermountain REgions into the Northern Rockies for today's forecast ... The snow and lower elevation rainfall will being to move into the Central Rockies by this evening continuing over the Central Rockies into the Southern Rockies for your Monday into Monday PM ... Rain showers will develop also over the Central High Plains and Central Plains for Monday's forecast as well ... HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is a big weather story for your Saturday afternoon and evening, especiall along the Central Gulf Coast with the oncoming approach of Cat 1 Hurricane Nate ... SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for portions of North Central and Northeastern Gulf Coastal Region for late today into tonight's forecast ... DAMAGING WINDS and TORNADOES are expected as the threat as NATE approaches ... MARGINAL RISK has been introduced surrounding the SLIGHT RISK across the Central Gulf Coast ... Also, MARGINAL RISK introduced for mid evening through the overnight across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes .. MARGINAL GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH is expected with a fast moving line of strong to possible severe thunderstorms in motion ... Be on alert! Be sure to have multiple ways to receive weather warnings if you have plans ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Another big weather story on the agenda for Friday is HURRICANE NATE and his future impact is greatly a concern for portions of the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast where a US MAINLAND THREAT and LANDFALL is definitely on the plate ... LATEST RIGHT NOW with the information: STATE OF EMERGENCY been declared by the governors of ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, and LOUISIANA ahead of HURRICANE NATE ... MANDATORY EVACUATION are taking place across Coastal Louisiana and Mississippi as we speak .... BILOXI, MS has OPENED five emergency shelters for residences needing a safety harbor from NATE ... NATE is responsible for 24 DEATHS across Central America ... HURRICANE NATE (CATEGORY 1): NATE being investigated currently by the Air Force Reserves and NOAA Hurricane Hunters over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea ... NATE has become a little stronger over the Central Gulf of Mexico .... LOCATION: 25.7N 88.0W 245 MILES SSE of the MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 22 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 MB or 29.12" CURRENT ADVISORIES SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana NATE is moving towards the NNW @ 22 MPH and expected to continue on this course through tonight .. A turn toward the N will come Sunday AM, and the turning NNE thereafter, the forecast trajectory path of NATE will be across the Central and Northern Gulf of Mexico for today and will likely made landfall along the Central Gulf Coast by tonight's outlook ... Max sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts .. Some strengthening expected possible before NATE makes his landfall along the Northern Gulf Coast... HURRICANE forced winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center of circulation ... TROPICAL STORM forced winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center of circulation ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR in the GULF COAST and OHIO VALLEY ... WIND FORECAST: Along the northern Gulf Coast, HURRICANE conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight, with TROPICAL STORM conditions expected to begin by this afternoon. TROPICAL STORM conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight. HURRICANE conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and TROPICAL STORM conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area tonight and Sunday. STORM SURGE FORECAST: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to 6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to 9 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. INTERESTS in the NORTHERN ATLANTIC bears watcing closely .... INVEST 91L A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 700 miles southwest of the Azores. This system is beginning to acquire subtropical characteristics, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low drifts toward the southwest. Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to become hostile for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Stewart NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is a frontal boundary extending across the Upper Great Lakes through the Southern Plains will proceed on eastward to the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic into the Ohio Valley and extending on southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains by tomorrow night ... The western edge of this system will dissipate over the Southern Plains for Sunday's outlook, in the meantime, showers and fast moving line of thunderstorms will begin developing along and ahead of the frontal boundary across the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Central and Southern High Plains that will then proceed eastward into the Northeast, Mid Atlantic, Ohio Valley by tomorrow evening's forecast ... Rainfall expected to develop across the Upper Great Lakes by tonight into the morning hours on Sunday ... Lastly, a frontal system is on the approach of the Pacific Northwest and Canadian border near the Northern High Plains will proceed southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes and Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central Plains while extending westward to the Central Rockies and Great Basin by tomorrow night ... The system is expected to produce widespread rainfall and higher elevation snowfall across the Intermountain Ranges and the Cascades ... Onshore flow will continue to produce the rainfall over the Pacific Northwest Coast through tomorrow morning's forecast ... The snowfall over the Cascades is expected to taper off tomorrow morning and as the boundary moves inland, expected rain and higher elevation snowfall to development over the Central and Northern Rockies for your evening into Sunday PM forecast ... Interesting developments expected ... HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF'S Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is a big weather story for your Friday afternoon and evening ... The biggest threat is lying in Southwestern Kansas into the Northern Texas Panhandle along and ahead of a frontal boundary with a shortwave trough in place with plenty of cyclogenesis in place ... Tons of instability and atmospheric dynamics will bring a threat for a FEW TORNADOES, STRONG TO DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, SEVERE HAIL, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, FLASH FLOODING, and VICIOUS, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING with an ENHANCED RISK IN PLACE in this region .. BE ON HIGH ALERT and have multiple sources for updated forecasts and receiving weather alerts ... SLIGHT RISK surrounds the ENHANCED RISK and extends from Southeastern Nebraska into the Texas Southern Plains where all hazards are at risk ... MARGINAL RISK surrounds the SLIGHT RISK where STRONG GUSTY WINDS and SMALL to LARGE HAIL THREATENS the forecast ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Another big weather story on the agenda for Friday is TROPICAL STORM NATE and his future impact is greatly a concern for portions of the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast where a US MAINLAND THREAT and LANDFALL is definitely on the plate ... TROPICAL STORM NATE: NATE being investigated currently by the Air Force Reserves and NOAA Hurricane Hunters over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea ... NATE has STRENGTHENED and HURRICANE / STORM SURGE WARNINGS have been issed for the Northern Gulf Coast as of this latest advisory ... LOCATION: 18.7N 85.0W 175 MILES SE of COZUMEL MEXICO 165 MILES NNE of ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 21 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 MB or 29.41" CURRENT ADVISORIES SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Pinar del Rio * Metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana * Isle of Youth NATE is moving towards the NNW @ 21 MPH and expected to continue on this course through Saturday with a turn to the North and Northeast for Saturday Night into Sunday ... Max sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts .. Strengthening expected in the next 48 hours and forecast to become a minimum HURRICANE by the time it reaches the Northern Gulf of Mexico ... TROPICAL STORM forced winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center of circulation ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches, max 8 inches Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches U.S. Central Gulf Coast states, eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND FORECAST: HURRICANE conditions are possible within the hurricane watch region in Mexico by tonight, with TROPICAL STORM conditions expected by this evening ... TROPICAL STORM conditions are expected in the warning region by tonight in Cuba, and are possible in the watch area in Cuba by tonight .. Northern Gulf Coast will have HURRICANE condition expected in the warning area by Saturday night .. TROPICAL STORM conditions expected in the tropical storm warning reigon by Saturday Night .. HURRICANE conditions are possible in the hurricane watch region by Saturday night, TROPICAL STORM conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch by Saturday night into Sunday ... STORM SURGE FORECAST: In the United States, The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border...4 to 7 ft Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. We do have a general interest area in the Northern Atlantic bearing to watch closely as the National Hurricane Center released a forecast .... A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form along a frontal boundary about 800 miles southwest of the Azores on Saturday. Environmental conditions suggest the low will then acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form early next week. The low is forecast to drift over the northeastern Atlantic for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Blake NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the wave of low pressure across the Central Plains with that frontal boundary draping over that region as I mentioned in the Severe Weather Outlook .. This will move into the Great Lakes for the weekend outlook for heavy rainfall in the forecast there ... Showers and storms are expected to develop today along and ahead of that frontal boundary Great Lakes to the Central Plains ... Then Upper Great Lakes to the Central and Southern Plains overnight and finally, extending for Saturday into the Western Ohio Valley / Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley ... Rainfall expected in the lower Great Lakes to the Northeast for late this morning and lifting into Canada by tomorrow ... Meanwhile, we are watching another frontal system over the Pacific Northwest that is proceeding very quickly for the Upper Mississippi valley into the Northern Plains extending westward into the Northern Rockies and Northern Intermountain Region by tomorrow night ... Rainfall in the forecast to develop over the Pacific Northwest Coastal Regions that expands to the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains for this evening into Saturday ... Snowfall is expected in the forecast for the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies where several inches of accumulations likely through Sunday's forecast ... Finally, tropical moisture lingering across Florida with an axis of upper level energy is producing continuation of showers and storms across the Florida Peninsula through tonight ... Tropical moisture will proceed into the Eastern and Central Gulf Coast from NATE over the weekend, as he approaches, showers and storms increasing with landfall over the weekend and NATE'S moisture will transport into the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valley into portions of the Southeast through Saturday PM and into the day on Sunday for further forecast ... Stay Tuned on that ... Flash Flooding is definitely a threat from NATE ... HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is a possibility for today's forecast for this afternoon and evening ... A small MARGINAL RISK is in place across West Central and Northwestern New Mexico where the threat for a couple strong to marginally severe cells could produce some small hail to be concerned for ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Two areas of interest we are watching a bit in the Atlantic basin, however, they are not doing too well with the exception of the Southern Gulf of Mexico disturbance showing signs of possiblity ... We will have to monitor this low pressure closely ... INVEST 90L Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea have become better organized since yesterday. This system is expected to become a tropical depression later today while it moves northwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua. The low should move slowly northwestward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras on Thursday, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Friday, and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras, the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be issued later today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, likely causing flash floods and mudslides. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A trough of low pressure located over west-central Cuba and extending northward into the Straits of Florida is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the southern peninsula of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although significant tropical development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, brief squalls will likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and the southern Florida peninsula during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Forecaster Blake TROPICAL PACIFIC: INVEST 90E becomes TROPICAL STORM RAMON .... Tropical Storm formed just to the South of Southern Mexico ... Heavy rainfall in the foreacst for the next day or so for the coastal sections of Southern Mexico ... LOCATION: 14.3N 96.0W 100 MILES SSE of PUERTO ANGEL, MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 mb or 29.59" RAMON is moving westerly at 9 mph and general motion continues with an increase in forward speed over the next 24 - 36 hours ... Center of RAMON is expected to move parallel but remaining offshore of the Southern Coastal Sections of Southern Mexico ... Max Sustained Winds of 45 mph with higher gusts is going .. RAMON is expected to have little change in strength in the next 48 hours ... RAMON is a small tropical storm with tropical storm forced winds extending outward up to 35 miles from the center of circulation ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Expecting to producing amounts of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, isolated max amounts up to 6 inches over the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Coastal Guerrero through Thursday ... This rainfall could cause life threatening flash flooding and mudslides ... WINDS FORECAST: Strong gusty winds are in the forecast could occur along portions of Southern Mexico between Puerto Angel and Acapulco during the next 24 - 36 hours .... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the low pressure storm system exiting the Rockies and now going into the Central portions of the Nation with the surface high pressure in place and building across the Northern High Plains and persisting over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic regions as well ... The leading edge of the cold frontal boundary is quickly advancing through the Great Lakes and Northeast with the trailing edge of the boundary over the Central and Southern Plains and be slowly moving ... Showers and storms are in the forecast and developing along the front and producing heavy rainfall at times, increasing the threat for flash flooding across the Southern Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley ... As this frontal boundary lifts as a warm frontal boundary into the Central Plains and Midwest, the area of increased risk of excessive rainfall will also shift northward on Thursday ... Lighter rain shower and higher elevation snow showers is in the forecast to continue across Northeastern Nevada for today ... This is expected to shift into the Northern Rockies for tonight's outlook as the upper level low drifts nortward into the Intermountain West .. Snow accumulations are in the forecast range of a couple of inches or less for the region ... Finally, widespread to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will expect to hang out in Florida with the tropical wave in motion ... Easterly flow will bring the continuation of tropical flow and instability giving ways to increasing showers and storm threat through Thursday ... Areal coverage of the thunderstorms will be expected to increase in threat during the PM hours ... In addition, subtropical moisture in the Deep South of texas will yield the potential for showers and storms through each afternoon for the remainder of the week ahead ... HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is a possibility for today's forecast for this afternoon and evening ... A small MARGINAL RISK is in place across Eastern New Mexico for a few strong to severe cells containing MARGINAL GUSTY WINDS, MARGINAL SMALL TO LARGE HAIL, and a POSSIBILITY of a BRIEF WEAK TORNADO or TWO ... Be on alert! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Two areas of interest we are watching a bit in the Atlantic basin, however, they are not doing too well with the exception of the Southern Gulf of Mexico disturbance showing signs of possiblity ... We will have to monitor this low pressure closely ... A trough of low pressure is moving westward over southern Florida, producing showers and gusty winds. Upper-level winds are not favorable for tropical cyclone formation. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea within the next few days. Some slow development of this system is possible by the weekend while the low drifts northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Pasch TROPICAL PACIFIC: INVEST 90E FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: An elongated area of low pressure located near the southeastern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or westward over the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Pasch NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the widespread continuation of precipitation in the Central states through the end of the week ahead ... A cold frontal boundary is continuing to progess on through the Central Plains and headinf for the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes ... Showers and storms in the forecast along and ahead of the front, spanning from the Great Lakes to the Plains ... There will be pockets of heavy rainfall that could increase the possibilities for FLASH FLOODING ... Heavy snowfall is still occurring across Montana and expected to tamper off, while new developments are occurring in the higher elevations in Idaho and northern Nevada ... Florida continues to be pounded by tropical feed of moisture with numerous showerand storms in the forecast remaining through the afternoon and evening hours, Persistent easterly flow continues to feed this disturbance through South Central, Southeastern, and the Keys ... The forecast for heavy rainfall amounts up to 4 inches locally will induce a flash flood threat for the region, be on alert! HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer |