Good morning on this Friday Edition of our SEMCF's National Weather Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening with several disturbances, cyclonic flow and perturbation in many locations is setting up some potential for strong to severe storms ... outflow and mesoscale boundaries preceding the frontal boundary extending from Lake Michigan across IL, Southern MO, Southwestern OK, and Southeastern NM ... dominant forcing mechanism for convection and associated severe potential will persist along and ahead of the strong cold frontal boundary ... The favoring low level jet of 40 - 60 kts will help drive the updraft for a few supercells to develop in the SLIGHT RISK REGIONS ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK is in place for today and tonight's forecast for severe weather across portions of Northern Texas to the Lower Ohio valley and Lower Great Lakes / New England ... PRIMARY THREAT for DAMAGING GUSTS to 60 - 70 mph, locally higher is a possibility, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL to 1.5" in DIAMETER, locally higher is a possibility, Can't rule out an ISOLATED TORNADO despite the non existent threat ... They will possibly be very weak and very brief if any forms ... ANY STORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING of LOW LYING AREAS, POORLY DRAINED AREAS, and PONDING OF THE ROADWAYS and FREQUENT LIGHTNING ... -- MARGINAL RISK is in place for today and tonight's forecast for some strong to ISOLATED severe weather SURROUNDING the Slight Rosk and extending to Southeastern Colorado .. Northeastern New Mexico ... and the Big County of West-Central Texas ... PRIMARY THREAT for ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS of 50 - 60 MPH possible and ISOLATED LARGE HAIL up to 1" in DIAMETER ... MAIN THREAT for VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING of LOW LYING / POORLY DRAINED / and PONDING OF THE ROADWAYS and FREQUENT LIGHTNING.... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- The trough that has stubbornly been stationary across the Northern / Central regions of the Nation is finally migrating eastward for the weekend ... Some small scale disturbances will keep the showers and storms in a periodic distribution for the weekend before high pressure takes over the weather pattern with cooler and less humid conditions in the wake of the cold frontal boundary sweeping through ... Scattered rain showers and storms will continue with the heat and humidity in place across the Gulf Coast and the Southeastern states ... The Western areas of the Nation will finally remain relatively quiet with plenty of sunshine and slightly above average temperatures, won't be a brutal as the previous heat events in the past week or so ... There is some precipitation in the forecast for the weekend with an upper-level trough forming over the Northern Rockies bringing some thunderstorms there ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Friday! Remember to PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer
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Good morning on this Thursday Edition of our SEMCF's National Weather Analysis Outlook from our Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening with several disturbances, cyclonic flow and perturbation in many locations is setting up some potential for strong to severe storms ... We do have a frontal boundary extending from the low in the Keweenaw Peninsula of Upper Michigan all the way through the Western Great Lakes into the Plains with the baroclinic zone in place over the Northern Plains as well ... Convective outflows will spawn up the storms in the forecast across KS and MO for today ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK is in place for today and tonight's forecast for severe weather across portions of the Central High Plains into the Corn Belt of the Midwest ... We also have a region from Northeastern Nebraska to Northern Iowa ... PRIMARY THREATS will be DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 70 mph, locally higher possible ... LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL to 1.5" in DIAMETER, locally higher possible .. Can't rule out a COUPLE TORNADOES as a possibility ... FREQUENT LIGHTNING, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with PONDING on the ROADWAYS and LOW LYING / POORLY DRAINED AREAL FLOODING is POSSIBLE as well ... -- MARGINAL RISK is in place for today and tonight's forecast for strong to ISOLATED severe storms across ELSEWHERE from portions of Wyoming extending to the Lower Great Lakes ... PRIMARY THREAT for GUSTY WINDS of 50 -60 MPH possible, LARGE HAIL to 1" in DIAMETER POSSIBLE, and a BRIEF SPIN UP couldn't be ruled out ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, PONDING ON THE ROADWAYS with POORLY DRAINED / LOW LYING FLOODING a possibility as well ... Be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions ... -- There is a disturbance in the Gulf Coastal Region to the Southeast with a weakening stationary boundary in place along with some moist and unstable air in the atmosphere is spawning some scattered to numerous rain showers and possible garden variety thunderstorms across the region ... They will become more numerous in threat for tomorrow's forecast as well ... one more thing to mention as well, We do have very dry condition in place with a very warm air mass thanks to another building amplified upper-level ridge in place across the West Coast extending to the Pacific Northwest leading to above Late June standards in high temperatures reaching as much as 20 degrees above normal ... Forecast high temperatures are going well into the 90s in the Pacific Northwest going through the remainder of the week into the weekend, so HEAT PRECAUTIONS will be a necessity in this region ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Thursday! Please remember to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Wednesday's Edition of our SEMCF's National Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following: -- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening ...We are still dealing with that dominant ridge in the Southwestern regions of the Nation ... Low pressure developing in Central Canada is expected to merge with the shortwave disturbance out of the Northern Rockies to amplify the trough pattern there ... low level perturbation will begin with this phasing ... Triple point low is expected to be over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest with the convective vorticity favorable and residual vorticity max over the Great Lakes continuing to provide a moisture channel from the Northern Plains to the Midwest and Great Lakes ... frontal boundaries will be sweeping across the Midwest and Central Plains to set the stage for today and tomorrow's severe weather event and we are expecting all severe weather parameters to persist for this event for today's forecast ... With that in mind ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- ENHANCED RISK for severe storms are in motion for the regions from near the Nebraska / Iowa / Missouri borderlands to Southwestern Wisconsin where we will see the threat for A FEW TORNADOES possible, DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 - 75 MPH Locally possible, LARGE HAIL .25 to 2" a Possibility, and locally higher isn't out of the question .. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL and FLOODING POTENTIAL is very likely ... FREQUENT LIGHTNING is a definite possibility ... We are expected Property Damage to Trees and Widespread Power Outages as a possibility as well in this aforementioned region ... -- SLIGHT RISK for severe storms are in motion for the regions ELSEWHERE from eastern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois to Northeastern Colorado ... Threats include GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, some locally higher ... SMALL TO LARGE HAIL .25 to 1" in DIAMETER, and a COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES are also possible ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING POTENTIAL, and FREQUENT LIGHTNING are all a possibility with these storms ... -- MARGINAL RISK for severe storms are in motion for the regions SURROUNDING the Slight Risk and extending to the Yellowstone Region ... These will be strong to a few ISOLATED severe cells capable of GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL HAIL to 1" in Diameter, a COUPLE BRIEF SPIN UPS can't be ruled out ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING POSSIBLE, and FREQUENT LIGHTNING will persist in these storms as well ... -- One more detail in the Nation's Forecast needs to be mentioned ... Scattered rain showers and storms are a possibility but NO SEVERE WEATHER along the Gulf Coast with the quasi-stationary front in place ... Temperatures across the West are gradually rising, once again, to almost 10 - 15 degrees above Late June standards and rising even further on Friday's forecast with the conditions STILL STAYING BELOW the extreme heat from the previous event ... however, heat precautions will still be necessary for this ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Wednesday! Please REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Tuesday Edition of our the SEMCF's National Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening ... Three features are responsible for this convective event underway for today's forecast ... The progressive and strengthening mid to upper level pattern over the northern 2/3 of the Nation is driving a strong shortwave trough through Ohio Valley with the primary vorticity over the Ohio Valley as well ... weak cold front is approaching the Northeast, giving off the threat for storms across New England ... Mid to upper level low crossing across Saskatchewan and Manitoba is bring a moisture channel from the Pacific into the Northern Rockies and Northern Intermountain West with a triple point expected over the Black Hills of the Dakotas with a warm front over the Dakotas with a cold front swinging through the Rockies, this is central focal point of some significant concerns for later this afternoon and evening ... that surface warm front is going to cause the lifting and forcing mechanism for instability to fire up multiple convective complexes through the evening and overnight period ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduce the following threats for this afternoon / evening's severe weather forecast (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the OUTLOOKS in the latter updates)... -- ENHANCED RISK for severe storms for this afternoon and this evening residing over portions of Central / Eastern Nebraska into Extreme South Dakota near the Triple Point Low ... This region will have the threat for DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 -70 mph and locally higher, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL 1 to 2" DIAMETER, Locally Higher Possible, and a FEW TORNADOES can't be ruled out as conditions favor for rotating supercells ... -- SLIGHT RISK for severe storms are residing elsewhere from the Central regions of the Dakotas bordering region to Northwestern Kansas and Western Iowa ... This region will have the threat for GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL to 1" in DIAMETER, Possibly higher locally, and a TORNADO or TWO can't be ruled out as brief ... -- MARGINAL RISK for severe storms are residing SURROUNDING the Slight Risk and extending near the Wyoming / Montana border and to the Northern Texas Panhandle ... Another region is portions of Eastern New York and New England ... These regions will have the threat for ISOLATED GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 mph and ISOLATED SMALL TO LARGE HAIL up to 1" in DIAMETER possible ... -- TROPICAL WEATHER is brewing up across the Eastern Pacific off the coast of East - Central Mexico as DORA weakened just lately back to a TROPICAL STORM ... LATEST STATS: LOCATION: 18.8 N , 109.2 W 255 miles WSW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico 285 miles S of the Southern Tip of Baja California MAX Sustained Winds: 74 mph Present Movement and Speed: NW @ 13 mph Min Central Pressure: 990 mB or 29.23" DORA is expected to slow in some forward progression for late this afternoon and evening into Wednesday, with a turn towards the West for Thursday out into the open waters of the Eastern Pacific ... The forecast trajectory is expected to bring DORA over or just to the North of Socorro Island for late today, and will remain well SOUTH of the Baja California Peninsula ... Max sustained winds of 74 mph just below hurricane strength .. Weakening expected in the next 48 hours for DORA ... Winds extends only 15 miles from the center of circulation up to hurricane force of 75 mph ... The only issue from DORA is surf and swells affecting portions of the coast of Southwestern Mexico and the Southern Tip of the Baja California ... forecast of 1 to 3 feet bringing Dangerous and Life-threatening rip currents and surf to the region ... -- One more detail in the Nation's Forecast needs to be mentioned ... Dangerous Heat is subsiding across the Southwest and Pacific Northwest, however, it will still remain slightly above normal for most region with some areas still reaching the triple digits across the Southwest, so HEAT PRECAUTIONS will still be necessary ... Also, the upper level stubborn persistent trough is keeping the eastern half of the Nation under a rather unusually cool pattern with temperatures as much as 20 degrees below Late June standards across the Great Lakes and the Appalachians .. A warming trend is coming for the latter half of the week into the Holiday Weekend where conditions will return to Late June like standards... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Wonderful Tuesday! PLEASE REMEMBER, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Monday Edition of the SEMCF's National Forecast Analysis for our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening ... There is still mid to upper level ridging dominating the Western areas of the Nation .. This ridge is mainly responsible for the record-breaking heat for the last week across the Desert Southwest and the Pacific Northwest and interior California Valleys .. Northern branch of the ridge is weakening finally, shifting on eastward as we speak ... There is a shortwave progressing southward out of the Gulf of Alaska into British Columbia, Canada that will have a low to / vorticity max that will enter into Western Canada to help fuel some convective activity across the Northern Rockies and Northern Intermountain West with the trough heading southward to Northern ID by tonight's forecast ... Lesser extent moisture channel showing on the water vapor imagery on this morning's data that is going to penetrate along the West Coast from Central California into Oregon .. The trough is weakening, however, enough forcing will cause some storm initation for portions of the interior West ... With all this mind, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduce the following threats for this afternoon / evening's severe weather forecast (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the OUTLOOKS in the latter updates)... -- MARGINAL RISK for severe storms is introduced for portions of the Interior Pacific Northwest ... Portions of the Central Plains into the majority of New Mexico and the Southern High Plains ... MAIN THREAT will be marginally SEVERE HAIL and STRONG WIND GUSTS 40 - 60 mph in this region for late afternoon / early evening ... Very heavy rainfall, potential rapid flooding, frequent lightning is all a possibility with any of these storms that fire up ... Be aware of this factor for today's forecast -- TROPICAL WEATHER is brewing up across the Eastern Pacific off the coast of East - Central Mexico as HURRICANE DORA is now a CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE has strengthen during the course of yesterday's forecast through the overnight period .... LATEST STATS: LOCATION: 16.7 N , 105.3 W 170 miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico 255 miles S of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico MAX Sustained Winds: 80 MPH Present Movement: WNW @ 13 MPH MIN Central Pressure: 989 mB or 29.21" DORA will continue to remain well offshore of central Mexico as she continues on the general motion to the WNW with reducing speed expected in the afternoon ... Max sustained winds of 80 mph with higher gusts and some strengthening is expected for this afternoon before weakening begins on Tuesday morning's forecast ... Some of the outer bands of DORA is reaching portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan with possibility of 1 to as much as 2 inches of rainfall locally, nothing significant is expected in the forecast ... Heavy surf and swells are being noticed along the coastal regions of Southwestern Mexico and will begin to show intensity across the Southern Baja Peninsula of Southern California by Tuesday ... Dangerous surf and life threatening rip currents are in the forecast .. Be aware of this factor ... -- One more detail in the Nation's Forecast needs to be mentioned ... Dangerous Heat is still ongoing for today's forecast across the majority of the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Desert Southwest where EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS / HEAT ADVISORIES are in place ... Temperatures are expected to reach from 15 to 30 degrees ABOVE late June standards in the regions mentioned ... This is all a part of the upper-level amplified ridge in place ... The ridge is finally beginning to break and will allow the temperatures to begin to drop off quite a bit in the Pacific Northwest, while the Desert Southwest will get a slight break from the heat, although, temperatures will still be in the DANGEROUS ranges of around 100 to 110 ... So Heat Precautions will still be needed across these regions ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Good morning on this Sunday Edition of the SEMCF's National Weather Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening across the Eastern portions of the Southwest into Far Western Texas ... The upper-level air pattern is being dominated by the cyclonic flow over the Central / Eastern United States that is responsible for the cooler and showery weather forecast for this region ... We do have amplified persistent high pressure ridge over the Desert Southwest that is causing the extensive heat in the region, as well as, expanding into the portions of Pacific Northwest and the Valleys of California ... We have a triple-point low near New York City with a trailing cold frontal boundary now quasi-stationary has some ill-defined outflow boundaries forming across portions of the panhandle of TX and eastern regions of New Mexico setting up the stage for this convective activity in the forecast ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has issued the following forecast (SUBJECTED TO CHANGES in the OUTLOOKS and FORECAST .. BE AWARE!) -- ENHANCED RISK is in place across portions of East-Central New Mexico where the primary risk will be DAMAGING WINDS in EXCESS of 60 - 70 MPH, Locally Higher is a possibility ... LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL to 2" in DIAMETER, possibly higher ... Very Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding could also become a possibility ... We can't rule out a COUPLE of TORNADOES as a possibility as well ... -- SLIGHT RISK is in place SURROUNDING the Enhanced Risk and extending the axis into West-Central / Southwestern New Mexico ... This region has potential to see the following threats ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 MPH with some locally higher possible ... SMALL TO LARGE HAIL up to 1" in diameter, with the possibility of locally higher ... Very Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding is also a possibility .... -- MARGINAL RISK is in place elsewhere from South-Central Colorado to the Llano Estacado of Texas and Borderlands of Far Western Texas and Southern New Mexico ... Majority of these storms will be on the strong side, however, there will be a few severe cells with ISOLATED GUSTS to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH and SMALL HAIL to 1" in Diameter ... Very heavy rainfall and Flash Flooding is the PRIMARY THREAT .... -- TROPICAL WEATHER is brewing up across the Eastern Pacific off the coast of East - Central Mexico as TROPICAL STORM DORA has formed during the overnight .... LATEST STATS: LOCATION: 14.7 N, 100.9 W 165 miles SSW of Acapulco, Mexico 370 miles SE of Manzanillo, Mexico MAX Sustained Winds: 40 MPH Present Movement: WNW @ 12 MPH MIN Central Pressure: 1005 mB or 29.68" DORA is expected to strengthen rather modest in the next 48 hours to a possible Category 1 minimum hurricane ... Tropical Storm forced winds extend 75 miles from the center of circulation ... Rainfall is the only issue with this system hitting portions of the coastal region of the Mexican states Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan through Monday where the rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches possible, locally up to 5" is a possibility ... Some flash flooding and minor mudslides are possible ... Keep this in mind ... -- One more detail in the Nation's Forecast needs to be mentioned ... Dangerous Heat is still ongoing for today's forecast across the majority of the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Desert Southwest where EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS / HEAT ADVISORIES are in place ... Temperatures are expected to reach from 15 to 30 degrees ABOVE late June standards in the regions mentioned ... This is all a part of the upper-level amplified ridge in place and hasn't broken down quite yet, although, weakened a bit to lesser intensity from earlier readings of record breaking highs ... Forecast highs are expected to reach well above 90 to even near 100 in the Pacific Northwest ... Desert Southwest will be well over 100 to 110s with the upper ridge proceeding to move on eastward ... A gradual cooling trend will being in the Pacific Northwest in the upcoming week, so good news there.... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Great Sunday! Remember to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Saturday Edition of our SEMCF's National Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- Some SEVERE WEATHER of an ISOLATED VARIETY is forecast for a couple of regions across the Nation on this Saturday ... The cold frontal boundary is progressing off the Eastern Seaboard, however, lingering across the Southeastern states .. Moist, warm sector with the dew points in the favorable range will help with some modest instability across the Carolinas for this afternoon and evening hours ... Surface heating with modest instability across portions of the Eastern areas of the Desert Southwest into Central and South Central Texas could spawn off a few strong to a few ISOLATED severe cells ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has the following forecast for this afternoon and evening (SUBJECTED TO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST and UPDATES FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER): -- MARGINAL RISK for this afternoon and evening hours has been issued for the regions of the Southeastern States .... Over portions of New Mexico ... PRIMARY THREATS will be ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH in the Southeastern States, with some ISOLATED HAIL and ISOLATED STRONG WINDS expected in the strongest storms in portions of New Mexico ... NO TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NATION ... A major threat will be for some heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding should be mentioned .... Some other minor details to address for the National Forecast on this Saturday ... -- Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding is continuing to cause issues across portions of the Gulf Coast into the Southeast ... Some portions of the Desert Southwest as well where a couple of disturbances are pooling moisture in the region ... Be aware of this factor. -- Western states are enduring some extreme heat and record highs thanks to a modest and amplifying ridge setting up at the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere .. Very dry conditions are expected with high temperatures climbing up into the 100s ... Temperatures are forecast to be as much as 30 degrees above Late June standards in the Pacific Northwest ... The coastal areas will NOT be receiving as much heat ... Temperatures are nosing down a bit across the Desert Southwest, won't be as extreme as the heat we had in the previous days past, however, highs will remain 5 to 20 degrees above Late June standards with highs mainly in the lower to middle 100s... EXTREME HEAT PRECAUTIONS are necessary.... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Saturday! Please Remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Friday Edition of our SEMCF's National Weather Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
--TROPICAL WEATHER is dominating today's headlines .. Tropical Depression Cindy on it's last legs and will totally dissipating as it merges with the cold frontal boundary across the Central / Western Great Lakes ... Combining the moisture pool to set up some serious HEAVY RAINFALL and FLOODING POTENTIALS for the Eastern portions of the Nation ... LATEST ON CINDY: LOCATION: 34.5N , 92.0W 25 miles SE of Little Rock, Arkansas 120 miles WSW of Memphis, Tennessee MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 20 mph PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 14 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 mB or 29.53" The heavy rainfall is prompting the National Weather Service to issue FLASH FLOOD WATCHES in effect for portions of the Southeast, Lower / Middle Mississippi Valleys, and the Ohio Valley ... FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS in effect for portions of Southern Alabama ... Cindy is continuing to spread an axis of heavy rainfall and strong to possibly a few severe storms around the center of circulation across portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, into the Ohio Valley and Southern Great Lakes ... Some of the moisture is now pooling into the Appalachians as well ... CINDY will continue to weaken as she Heads up NE into the Southern Ohio Valley and merging into the cold front ... That will be the end of her ... Rainfall forecast is 2 to 4 inches across portions of Northern Louisiana into Western Tennessee ... Into Kentucky and the Central Appalachians ... Locally higher amounts 5 - 8" is a possibility ... These rain bands will continue to enhance the FLOODING POTENTIAL across these regions especially in Louisiana and Southeastern Arkansas ... We will be watching all this closely... -- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated for today's forecast as the NEXT top story in the Nation's forecast ... With the remnants of Cindy over the Western Tennessee Valley this system will be absorbed into the belt of strong westerlies associated with the upper-level trough amplifying over the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley ... Combined forces will really amplify the threat for severe weather and especially very heavy rainfall ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has issued the following forecast (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST UPDATES): -- SLIGHT RISK for severe weather is anticipated for today and tonight across portions of the Gulf Coast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys .. Also, another small region of the Southern Plains as well ... We are expecting to see ISOLATED cases of DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of 60 possibly 70 MPH locally along with a FEW TORNADOES mainly for this afternoon from a portion of the Gulf Coast extending on the axis into the Central Appalachians ... -- MARGINAL RISK for severe weather is anticipated for today and tonight across portions of the Gulf Coast SURROUNDING the MARGINAL RISK into the Northeast ... Also, some areas of the Southern Plains as well ... We are expecting to see a few strong to a few severe storms with STRONG WIND GUSTS of 40 - 60 MPH and some hail up to an 1" in Diameter, locally higher is possible as well ... One other detail of the National Forecast we need to mention ... The extreme heat that has been baking the Desert Southwest will very slowly began to wane over the weekend ... Temperatures will still remain MUCH ABOVE Late June standards across the regions through Sunday's forecast ... Record highs should seize across the Southwest ... Pacific Northwest is going to experience some rising temperatures and POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT as some areas are forecast to rise up to 30 degrees ABOVE Late June standards in the forecast with record highs expected likely in the regions ... HEAT ADVISORIES and EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS are already issued for the forecast for this region ... Therefore, HEAT PRECAUTIONS will be a needed necessity for the weekend outlook.... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Friday! Remember to Please Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Thursday Edition of our SEMCF's National Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
--TROPICAL WEATHER is dominating today's headlines .. TROPICAL STORM CINDY made landfall this morning and is expected to weaken during the course of the day to a TROPICAL DEPRESSION ... CINDY'S trajectory is expected to turn to North-Northeast as she weakens and race Northeast for Friday's forecast before totally dissipating .. LATEST ON CINDY: LOCATION: 30.5 N , 93.7 W 40 MI NW of Lake Charles, Louisiana MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 12 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 MB or 29.36" TROPICAL STORM WARNING remains in effect from HIGH ISLAND, TX to MORGAN CITY, LA ... Rainfall seems to be the top issue with this system as the rainfall continues to pound Eastern Texas, Central / Western Louisiana, and Eastern and Southern Arkansas where all locations will receive at least an amount of 3 - 6" with ISOLATED MAX AMOUNTS up 12 inches possible through Friday Morning ... Additional rainfall in the forecast Southern Mississippi, Central / Southern Alabama , and extreme Western Florida Panhandle where amounts of 2 - 4 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts up to 8" is possible as well ... Rainfall for Friday's forecast is expected to spread into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley with rainfall amounts forecast range from a widespread 1 - 2 inches with some isolated maximum amounts up to 4" possible through Friday morning's forecast .... WINDS are still in a TROPICAL STORM conditions mode across the Warning area from High Island, TX to Morgan City, LA ... Winds are expected to die down considerably in the next few hours ... SURGE is an issues in the WARNING area of 1 -3 feet .. There is some surges happening along the coast from Southeastern Louisiana through the Western Florida Peninsula with strong onshore flow bringing surges as well in the 1 - 3 feet range ... TORNADO WATCH is ONGOING across portions of SOUTHERN AL, WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, EASTERN LOUISIANA, CENTRAL / SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI and the COASTAL WATERS for a few tornadoes possible ... THIS EXPIRES at 1 PM CDT... We will continue to monitor the situation and bring any new updates if necessary through the morning and afternoon hours in regards to this system ... -- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated for today's forecast as the NEXT top story in the Nation's forecast ... We are continuing to see a mid to upper level synoptic pattern continuing to impact the forecast across the Nation with Tropical Storm Cindy (soon to be a Depression later on) and the upper air perturbation with this, INTENSE RIDGE over the Desert Southwest giving the EXTREME HEAT issues there, and then we a belt of very relatively max velocity on the northern stream flow from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest that allowing for cyclonic flow with a positively tilted trough moving out of Canada ... This will allow for a cold frontal boundary progressing eastward colliding with the very strong southwesterly gulf flow of moisture and instability along and ahead of the frontal boundary, this is setting up the stage for this afternoon and evening's severe weather convective potential ... The Storm Prediction Center has introduced the latest forecast (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST and UPDATES): -- SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for today and tonight lies over portions of the Mississippi Delta to the Tennessee and central Gulf Coast regions related to Tropical Storm Cindy ... Another region, from portions of the Central / Southern High Plains into the Colorado Front Range ... Then, finally a region from portions of Iowa into portions of Lower Michigan ... PRIMARY THREAT for VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING POTENTIALS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, DAMAGING WINDS, and LARGE HAIL ... VERY LOW END THREAT for a COUPLE BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADOES can't be ruled out ... -- MARGINAL RISK for some strong to ISOLATED severe cells for today and tonight are forecast over the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK for the PRIMARY THREATS of VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING POTENTIAL, and possibility of ISOLATED GUST TO DAMAGING WINDS, and ISOLATED SMALL to LARGE HAIL as well .... A couple more feature to discuss with the Nation's forecast with the persistent heat wave across the Desert Southwest bringing some extreme conditions with forecast highs of 110 - 120 degrees a possibility across Southern Arizona where EXTREME HEAT PRECAUTIONS will be very likely needed ... Temperatures remaining almost 20 degrees above mid to late June standards ... Keep that in mind .... With the remnants of CINDY moving through the Ohio Valley / Central Appalachians ... Upper-level energy from the Great Basins pushing through the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Southern Plains through Friday's Forecast ... Along, with yet, another upper-level feature from Central Canada progressing for the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes ... FLOODING CONCERNS are on the rise with a lot of moisture pooling on these disturbances as the Low pressure across Northern Canada feeds into these trough and Gulf stream moisture also pooling northward with the frontal boundary proceeding eastward from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Thursday! Remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Wednesday Edition of the SEMCF's National Weather Analysis Forecast from SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following: --TROPICAL WEATHER is dominating today's headlines .. TROPICAL STORM CINDY is causing some serious potential for life-threatening flash flooding across portions of the Northern Gulf Coast with torrential rainfall amounts of close to 7 - 9" locally a possibility ... CURRENTLY at 8 AM EDT / TROPICAL STORM CINDY INFO: LOCATION: 27.5 N, 92.2 W 165 MILES SSW of Morgan City, Louisiana 200 MILES SE of Galveston, Texas MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH PRESENT SPEED / DIRECTION: NW @ 8 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 MB or 29.41" TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT from San Luis Pass TX to the AL / FL Border including New Orleans Metro / Lake Pontchartrain ... CINDY is expected to turn to the NNW towards the border of LA / TX and then turn Northward as it makes landfall sometime early Thursday AM .. Move inland over SE Texas or SW Louisiana .... I do expect to see CINDY just a bit stronger for today .. Winds could exceed 65 mph in gust later on ... Slight weakening will then begin late tonight before approaching the coast ... Tropical Storm Winds extending 275 miles from the center of circulation. Rainfall accumulations are expected to reach the plateau of 6 - 10" across portions of SE Louisiana, S Mississippi, S Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday with LOCALIZED amounts around 12 - 15" max ... Life-threatening flash flooding is a likelihood in these mentioned regions ... 4 to as much as 7" isolated max to 8 -9" could be expected further west across W Louisiana and E Texas through Thursday's forecast ... Rainfall is forecast to spread into Arkansas and into portions of Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday's forecast, with total rainfall accumulations of 3 -6" possible with locally higher amounts possible as well ... WINDS will be affecting portions of the Northern Gulf Coast along with a few tornadoes in the forecast for this morning from the Western Florida Panhandle to Southern Louisiana ... Northern Gulf Coast is experiencing the TS Forced Winds up to 60 mph in gusts and will be spread westward during the course of the day ... STORM SURGE is still forecast in the 1 - 3 feet rainge with some isolated areas could see up to 4 feet in the WARNING area .... -- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated for today's forecast as the NEXT top story in the Nation's forecast ... pattern is being mentioned going zonal across the northern Rockies and Plains into Northern New England ... Intense but slowly weakening ridge responsible for the intensive heat wave across the Desert Southwest combining with situation with Tropical Storm Cindy is setting the stage up for some convective activity for this afternoon and evening ... There is a 500 mb cyclone we've been monitoring in the northern - stream flow over Canada as it progresses eastward, bringing a series of shortwaves through the trough to the South ... Now, with the warm frontal boundary lifting across the Southern Ohio Valley on the surface analysis with a diffuse low over the High Plains ... this is all setting up the ingredients for this severe weather ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following forecast (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES IN THE OUTLOOKS and FORECASTS through out today, the lastest available at The Storm Prediction Center Website) -- SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for this afternoon and evening across the Northern Texas Panhandle into portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin ... Southern Louisiana to the Western Florida Peninsula associated with TROPICAL STORM CINDY ... Threat here includes DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 75 MPH, Locally, some HAIL up to 1 possible 2 inches LOCALLY, FEW TORNADOES are possible, ESPECIALLY along the GULF COAST associated with CINDY ... PRIMARY THREAT for TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING and FREQUENT LIGHTENING... -- MARGINAL RISK for severe storms for this afternoon and evening hours has been forecasted SURROUNDING the Central Plains / Upper Midwest SLIGHT RISK .. Also, from portions of the Upper Ohio Valley to Southern New England ... Some strong to ISOLATED severe storms capable of ISOLATED GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL .25 to 1" in DIAMETER, and can't rule out a BRIEF TORNADO or TWO in some of the strongest cells ... PRIMARY THREAT is VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIAL LOCALIZED RAPID FLOODING, and CLOUD to GROUND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ... A couple more feature to discuss with the Nation's forecast with the persistent heat wave across the Desert Southwest bringing some extreme conditions with forecast highs of 110 - 120 degrees a possibility across Southern Arizona where EXTREME HEAT PRECAUTIONS will be very likely needed ... Temperatures remaining almost 20 degrees above mid to late June standards ... Keep that in mind .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Great Wednesday!! REMEMBER TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!!! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Monday's Edition of our SEMCF's National Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER, once again, dominating the headlines for your Monday's outlook ... Trough in the upper Great Lakes with the synoptic-scale troughing as well with the low over the eastern portions of Canada and strong ridging over the Desert Southwest is setting the stage up for some moisture pooling to the region where a cold frontal boundary continues to progress on eastward extending from Southern Ontario going southwestward across the Southern Great Lakes, Mid Missouri Valley, into the Central / Southern Plains ... Slowest portion of the frontal boundary for today's forecast will be primarily across the Northeast and New England sector into the Central Appalachians where a corridor of convective activity will develop with the good surface heating, instability, forcing ascent and updraft along and ahead of the frontal boundary, and perfect atmospheric favorable conditions.... We are definitely will be looking at a decent shot of a widespread damaging winds and hail event .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has issued the following risk categories for today's forecast: (SUBJECTIVE TO UPDATED CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AND DYNAMICS .. BE SURE TO FOLLOW OUR FACEBOOK PAGE or WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV for the latest forecast) --ENHANCED RISK for severe storms will be for this afternoon and this evening from Eastern Virginia through Southeastern New York State and Western New England ... PRIMARY THREAT FOR THIS RISK is WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS 40 to 70 mph, with locally HIGHER gusts in the strongest cells, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL to 2" in DIAMETER, locally higher is possible, there is a shot on a low end of the spectrum for a couple BRIEF and WEAK SPIN UPS embedded in the linear line of strong to severe storms .. It is a very slim possibility here ... FREQUENT LIGHTNING, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, and FLOODING is POSSIBLE ... -- SLIGHT RISK for severe storms will be surrounding the ENHANCED RISK and extending into portions of the Southern states to Central Texas ... PRIMARY THREAT will be some SEVERE CELLS containing GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40-60 MPH, SMALL to LARGE HAIL .25 to 1" in DIAMETER, Locally Higher is Possible ... Definitely looking at VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and POSSIBLE FLOODING... -- MARGINAL RISK for severe storms will be forecast over portions of the Northern and Eastern North Dakota into Northwestern Minnesota ... These storms will mainly be strong with gusty winds to 40 mph ... Possibly a couple cells could reach severe criteria ... SMALL HAIL ISOLATED with a few cells getting up to 1" in DIAMETER ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING POTENTIAL, and FREQUENT LIGHTNING primary threat .... TURNING TO THE TROPICS, we do have some concerning matters to talk about with INVEST 93L threatening portions of the Northern Gulf Coast for the week ahead ... There is a good looking broad, disorganized circulation in the Yucatan Peninsula that is producing some disorganized precipitation in the form of rain showers and thunderstorms ... However, future models are indicating a possibility of gradual development with this system with favorable atmospheric conditions that could help develop the circulation to become more organized ... Therefore, we are expected to see this develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 48 - 96 hours ... A lot of heavy rainfall is in the forecast for this system going from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico ... The track of the system is very uncertain at this time ... However, we do know some portions of the Gulf Coast could see some significant rainfall and a very likelihood of a FLOODING DISASTER POTENTIAL where this cyclone is expected to track ... We will keep you updated on this situation as it unfolds and gets better organized .... One more feature we need to talk about before wrapping this up ... A weak, upper-level low formed over the weekend in the Gulf of Alaska / Northern Pacific ... This system is now forecast to progress for the Pacific Northwest and portions of Northern California with a potential for some decent rainfall .. This system is primed to progress inland through the mid-week with plenty of opportunities for rain showers and thunderstorms throughout the Rockies / Intermountain West / Great Basin ... Keep this in mind .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... From the staff of SEMCF ... We want to wish you all a pleasant Monday. Please, REMEMBER TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Sunday, FATHER'S DAY Edition of the SEMCF's NATIONAL WEATHER ANALYSIS from our Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER, once again, dominating the headlines for your Sunday's outlook ... We are noticing an upper level trough that is swinging into the Upper Great Lakes in continuing to provide the dynamics in the atmosphere with instability and some surface heating ... Surface cold front will provide the forcing and lift mechanism for convective activity for this afternoon and evening's threat for severe weather ... Potential for strong to severe storms are likely from the Northeast into the Mid-South and ARKLATEX region ... Majority of the storms will be linear in nature, so not as intensive as yesterday's ruckus of severe weather ... PRIMARY RISK of VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING a LIKELIHOOD ... This is turning into mainly a DAMAGING WINDS (40 - 60 MPH, Locally Higher possible) and LARGE HAIL (.25 to 1" maybe higher locally in stronger cells where the forcing and lifting is more intensive in nature) event for the corridor mentioned ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE FOLLOWING THREATS for THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING'S FORECAST (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIODIC UPDATES): -- SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for the afternoon and evening hours reside in portions of Northern Texas and extending upward towards Northern New York and Vermont ... -- ENHANCED RISK for some ISOLATED severe storms surrounding the SLIGHT RISK and extending towards the Lower Mississippi Delta Region.... We have to mention along with the severe weather, another main headline is very heavy rainfall in the forecast across portions of the Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic and even into the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys where upper-level energy / mid to upper level jet dynamics is allowing for the persistent flow of moisture along with the Gulf and Atlantic moisture feeder, this is allowing for the concerns for LOCALIZED FLOODING ... So be aware of this factor ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... The staff of SEMCF would like to wish all Dads a wonderful, Happy Father's Day ... Please REMEMBER, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!!! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Saturday Edition of the SEMCF's National Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER, once again, dominating the headlines for your Saturday's outlook ... We have a potential for a destructive event consisting of an isolated tornado or two along with significant hail ... Significant damaging winds are also persistant for portions of the Middle Missouri Valley into the Western Great Lakes ... Widespread severe weather is anticipated in the highlighted regions ... We have a warm front to the north that will force the instability and unstable air to collide with a cold front sweeping across the Central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes ... along and ahead of the front with the forcing, mid level jet speed max above 85 kts, along with significant CAPE values over 4500 J/KG will allow for supercell thunderstorm development with all severe weather threats a possibility .... STORM PREDICTION CENTER has the following forecast (SUBJECTIVE TO FORECAST UPDATES TO CHANGES): -- ENHANCED RISK is in place from eastern Kansas into portions of Illinois / Indiana border region ... This is the corridor for the significant event for Damaging Winds and Destructive Hail as a possibility ... A couple tornadoes can't be ruled out ... -- SLIGHT RISK is in place elsewhere surrounding the ENHANCED RISK from Central Kansas into Southern Lower Michigan ... This region will have the possibility of dealing with some DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAIL ... -- MARGINAL RISK is in place for portions of Minnesota into the Eastern Dakotas where an upper-level disturbance in the atmosphere is triggering a round of potential rain showers and strong to a couple severe storms containing isolated hail and wind threat ... We must also discuss a big issue involving potential for flooding and very heavy rainfall in the forecasat across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys ... Also, portions of the Central Mississippi Valley is in this potential threat ... Be aware of this factor ... One more discussion, EXTENSIVE HEAT is continuing across the Desert Southwest into the Central / Southern Plains ... High temperatures forecast well above 100 to 110 degrees is a likelihood with some locations in Western Texas and Eastern New Mexico exceeding 115 ... Heat Indices will be substantial and life-threatening above 120 degrees in many locations ... EXTREME HEAT PRECAUTIONS are deseperately needed in these regions .. Please check on the ill, elderly, and also, keep your pets cool and safe with plenty of fresh, cold ice water ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Good morning on this Friday's Edition of the SEMCF's National Weather Analysis from SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER, once again, dominating the headlines for your Friday's outlook .... We are on a zonal flow pattern that is setting up the stage for the next couple of days on the National Forecast ... We are watching a weakening low across Central Canada that will sag on southward with cooler conditions in the wake of the front ... There is a continuation of disturbances riding on the zonal flow and allowing for the mechanism for convective activity along with the daytime heating in place, especially over the Middle Missouri Valley with the MCV in progress ... The progressive low pressure that brought all the rainfall and higher elevation snowfall across the Western states in the previous days this week is now progressing into the Plains with the weak cold frontal zone in place that will allow for outflow boundaries to produce the mechanism for a severe weather event for this afternoon and evening hours ... The Storm Prediction Center has introduced the following forecast (subjective to updated forecast and changes): -- ENHANCED RISK for severe storms are expected for this afternoon and evening hours across portions of eastern Nebraska across the Missouri Valley into portions of Iowa .. Northern Missouri .. and Northeastern Kansas where DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 70 mph, locally higher is possible and LARGE HAIL .25" up to 3" Locally in DIAMETER is the primary threat for these storms with a LOW END TORNADO THREAT a possibility as well ... -- SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for today and tonight surrounding the ENHANCED RISK and then extending southwestward across Central / Southwestern Arkansas ... Portions of the Mid-South into Central Mississippi where the PRIMARY THREAT will be for some DAMAGING WINDS 40 - 60 mph and LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL up to 2" in Diameter Locally higher possible ... -- MARGINAL RISK is surrounding the SLIGHT RISK in the Central Plains and then having a Southern region into Florida Peninsula with the Carolinas and Virginia having the threat as well ... ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS in the strongest cells to 60 mph and ISOLATED SMALL TO LARGE HAIL from PEA SIZE up to QUARTER SIZE HAIL .... A couple other factors in the forecast for the Nation needs to be mention. Especially across portions of California and the Desert Southwest where EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS been issued for temperatures over 100 - 110 plus easy ... These temperatures are only going to continue to increase over the weekend where some protions of Texas and Oklahoma could really exceed over 100 to 110 degrees in the forecast ... Meanwhile, cooler air infilters the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through weekend as temperatures cool to the 70s, while portions of the Central and Northern Plains will remain slightly above average up to 5 - 20 degrees above normal mainly in the 80s with a few 90s in there ... Onshore Atlantic flow with upper-level energy will continue to provide for showers and storms of a non severe variety across the entire Eastern Seaboard ... Finally, an approaching Pacific low pressure storm system is spreading the rain showers and higher elevation snowfall for the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin / Intermountain West will finally diminish in threat by tomorrow PM as the frontal boundary weakens inland ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Friday! Remember to please REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!!! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Weather Analyst / Lead Forecaster David L Saurer Good morning on this Thursday Edition of our SEMCF's National Weather Analysis from SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER, once again, dominating the headlines for your Thursday's outlook ... A surface low with a decent moisture pooling the feeder for this cyclone, with a trailing dryline going through the Southern Plains ... The combination of surface daytime heating along with plenty of instability in the region with the buoyancy ingredients in place will allow for convective development of supercell thunderstorms ... A lot of shear in place will support the development of some large to destructive hail in the Plains ... Another region of concern for severe weather shifts on into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley where we are looking at mainly some scattered storm development with some sporadic daytime surface heating and some decent outflow boundaries in the region to allow for some supercell thunderstorms capable of some large hail and possibly some damaging winds as well ... The Storm Prediction Center has introduced the following threats for today's forecast: -- ENHANCED RISK is in place across Central Kansas into Northern Oklahoma where the main threat will be mainly LARGE TO DESTRUCTIVE HAIL .25 to 3" in DIAMETER, LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE ... SOME DAMAGING WINDS are possible as well up to 70 mph in the strongest cells ... A small possible region of a tornado or two could pop up across South-Central Kansas that needs to be mentioned .... -- SLIGHT RISK is in place across areas SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK for portions of the Central Plains to Northwestern Texas ... Also, portions of Central and Northern Mississippi into Alabama and Vicinity ... A few strong to severe storms containing LARGE HAIL to 1 maybe locally up to 2" in DIAMETER ... DAMAGING WINDS for certain up to 70 MPH is possible ... -- MARGINAL RISK is in place in a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Southeast ... ISOLATED WINDS and HAIL is the main threat there .... A couple other factors in the forecast for the Nation needs to be mention. Especially across portions of California and the Desert Southwest where EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS been issued for temperatures over 100 - 110 plus easy ... These temperatures are only going to continue to increase over the weekend where some portions of Texas and Oklahoma could really exceed over 100 to 110 degrees in the forecast ... Meanwhile, cooler air infilters the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through weekend as temperatures cool to the 70s, while portions of the Central and Northern Plains will remain slightly above average up to 5 - 20 degrees above normal mainly in the 80s with a few 90s in there ... Finally, an approaching Pacific low pressure storm system is spreading the rain showers and higher elevation snowfall for the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin / Intermountain West will finally diminish in threat by tomorrow PM as the frontal boundary weakens inland ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On our smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Thursday! Please remember to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!!! Respectfully Yours, David L Saurer SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst Your Wednesday edition of the SEMCF's National Weather Analysis Forecast from SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst begins with the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER, once again, dominating the headlines for your Wednesday's outlook ... We are noticing that upper-level low that will become occluded across portions of Central Lower Canada with a trailing occluded / cold frontal boundary progressing eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley ... We are seeing some serious mid to upper level jet flow accompanying the low pressure storm system combining with the daytime heating / atmospheric instability that will help with the convective development in this region ... We are also seeing some potential convective activity across Western areas of Texas for this afternoon and evening thanks to strong daytime surface heating and mixing. However, despite that becoming a concern for limited convective activity, we seeing still some very favorable instability to allow for buoyancy with deep shear in place for some storms to fire up ... Then, finally, another concerning region being the Ohio Valley with the stationary boundary and several waves of disturbance riding the boundary with surface heating and instability allowing for a few storms to reach strong to Marginally severe criterias ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following for this afternoon and evening's forecast: SLIGHT RISK will be in place across portions of the Upper Great Lakes into The Lower Missouri Valley ... We also are seeing another small region across Western Texas.. MARGINAL RISK will be in place across portions of the Southern Plains and another region across the Ohio Valley into the Southern Appalachians... Clusters of strong to severe storms will be expected and the PRIMARY tHREATS for DAMAGING WIND GUSTS and LARGE HAIL ... ISOLATED in the MARGINAL RISK REGIONS ... SO BE ON ALERT and FOLLOW YOUR SOURCES to stay up to the latest on the situations .... We have to mention a couple of minor concerns for the forecast ... The Central and Eastern portions of the Nation dealing with what feels like mid summer like conditions will finally take a hiatus as a backdoor cold Frontal boundary will swing in the next few days to cool things down a bit as many locations will see 80s today before cooling down back to the 70s for tomorrow's forecast ... Rainfall is a good bet for many locations ... We are also noticing that strong Pacific Low that has brought well below normal temperatures continue to taper off, however, a new Pacific Low will be approaching the Pacific Northwest for tonight's forecast and this will Spread more rainfall for areas of the Pacific Northwest into the West Coast ... Desert Southwest has some Excessive Heat Watches in place ... Portions of Oregon and Northern Nevada will have FREEZE WARNINGS in place .. So quite a contrast in temperatures are in place across the Great Basin and Intermountain West ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Wednesday! Please REMEMBER, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Today's SEMCF's National Weather Analysis from SEMCF's Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst begins with the following:
SEVERE WEATHER is dominating the headlines ... Another day of some intense severe weather is expected over the Red River Valley of the North to the Mid Missouri Valley ... Also, some decent storms of severe criteria will fire up across the Dakotas and Minnesota into the Central Plains and portions of Western Texas ... Some strong to Isolated severe storms are a possibility surrounding that Slight Risk and then extending on eastward into the Lower Great Lakes and southern New England ... The closed off, mid-level cyclone responsible for yesterday's violent weather across NE, WY, and CO with a trailing shortwave riding the cyclonic flow is expected to eject itself northeastward across the Plains through the evening and overnight hours ... We expecting a surface low to form over the Dakotas and Northern NE for tonight's forecast in advance of this ejecting shortwave ... The surface warm frontal boundary will progress with the cyclone driving northward, while the cold frontal boundary will progress slowly eastward into the Northern Plains and extending into the Central / Southern Plains as well, setting the stage up for some strong to severe storms for this afternoon and evening hours ... ENHANCED RISK for severe storms are expected from the Red River Valley to the Mid Missouri Valley where this will be the axis of the strongest severe cells and supercells capable of producing LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL up to 3" IN DIAMETER, DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 75 mph possible, and a FEW TORNADOES ... SLIGHT RISK region from the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains and West Texas will be capable of a few cells containing DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH and LARGE HAIL to 2" in DIAMETER, and can't rule out a COUPLE OF TORNADOES ... MARGINAL RISK that extends into the Lower Great Lakes and Southern New England will have ISOLATED GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH and LARGE HAIL .25 to 1" in DIAMETER possible ... All storms will contain FREQUENT LIGHTNING and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ... BE ON ALERT and FOLLOWING THE LATEST STATEMENTS from THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, your SMARTPHONE APPS, OR your local weather media outlet .... -- FLASH FLOODING and HEAVY RAINFALL will be likely in the forecast across the Northern Rockies extending eastward in an axis to the Upper Mississippi Valley... Upper-level impulses mixing with the warm, humid Gulf moisture will combined to continue the rain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast along the Gulf Coast and Southeastern states with the combination of daytime heating and atmospheric instability ... -- Finally, COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES for Mid June standards continues across the Western areas of the Nation, with snowfall continuing to threaten the higher elevations of the Great Basin / Northern Rockies as another Pacific frontal boundary will bring the opportunity for rainfall in the valleys of the Pacific Northwest and Cascades by tomorrow / Thursday's forecast Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a great Tuesday! Remember to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer All Forecast From The Storm Prediction Center are SUBJECTIVE to changes in the forecast and analysis ... Be sure to follow the forecast on www.spc.noaa.gov
Monday's Edition of the SEMCF's National Weather Analysis Summary from SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David Saurer begins with the following: SEVERE WEATHER is dominating the National Forecast and is expected across portions of the Northern and Central High Plains for this afternoon and evening's forecast ... Today's threat is pretty significant one ... We are seeing a very strong mid-level jet streaking through the Plains and will begin to progress into the cyclonic flow from the Pacific Low that given off plenty of significant rainfall and higher elevation snowfall over the weekend ... This system is now moving into the Intermountain West interacting with the jet streak ... With the strong heat ridge in place, significant daytime heating and plenty of instability and buoyancy favorable conditions with upslope support will initiate the threat for some pretty significant supercell and severe thunderstorms in the vicinity ... We are expecting these storms to form mid-afternoon through the evening ... There is plenty of low to mid level moisture surging into the cyclonic flow that will also help to trigger this seriousness of nature ... We also have concerns in the Mid Missouri Valley to the Great Lakes with the low-level advection along with the low-level jet with the combination of strong daytime heating and supportive instability in the atmosphere as well ... Maine and Western Texas has the same scenario with some good instability in place and surface heating allowing for convective activity to fire up ... Specifically, We are looking at a MODERATE RISK in place across Southeastern and East-Central Wyoming, Western Nebraska, Southwestern South Dakota, and Far Northeastern Colorado where the threat is significant for SEVERAL TORNADOES, including A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES, WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE that is about 1 - 3 to possibly locally 4" hail measurement diameter, and SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 75 mph locally ... SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS will be very likely needed in these aforementioned regions ... ENHANCED RISK region will be surrounding the MODERATE RISK from Northeastern Colorado to Northeastern Wyoming and Western South Dakota where ALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS PERSIST INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES, A STRONG ONE OR TWO is POSSIBLE .. DAMAGING WINDS 60 - 70 MPH, VERY LARGE HAIL TO 3" in DIAMETER LOCALLY ... SLIGHT RISK will be from the Northern Rockies into the Middle Missouri Valley and portions of Wisconsin where the main threat will be DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL to 2" in DIAMETER, and a TORNADO or TWO not out of the question ... MARGINAL RISK will be from the Northern Rockies into Lower Michigan and for portions of Western Texas for this afternoon / evening and a portion of central and northern Maine where ISOLATED STORMS could contain GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL to 1" in DIAMETER, Locally higher is possible, and a COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES can't be ruled out as well ... -- HEAVY RAINFALL is also in the forecast along with the severe weather threat across the Upper Mississippi Valley / Northern High Plains / Northern Rockies and Great Basin where FLASH FLOODING is a good possibility as well ... Keep this in mind ... -- TEMPERATURES are remaining WELL BELOW JUNE standards up to 30 degrees across portions of the Great Basin / Pacific Northwest / Northern California and portions of the Desert Southwest ... Snowfall, surprisingly, is a possibility in the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada mountains into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies ... -- Finally, TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL for JUNE standards continues across the Plains and spreading into the entire Central / Eastern United States with 90s predominate across the aforementioned regions with likely 100s readings across the Central / Southern Plains with high humidity in place ... HEAT PRECAUTIONS will be necessary for this time ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a great Monday! Please be on the alert and REMEMBER, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Today's SEMCF's National Weather Analysis Forecast from SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst begins with the following weather headlines ....
-- SEVERE WEATHER is expected from NOW through the evening / overnight ... ENHANCED RISK for severe storms expected for today's forecast across East Central Minnesota into Northern Wisconsin and Southern Upper Michigan ... SLIGHT RISK surrounding the ENHANCED RISK ... also, a small portions of Southeastern Wyoming and Northern Colorado ... MARGINAL RISK in place across the Central Plains into the Northern Great Basin ... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH is in effect right now across portions MN and WI as we speak. As we are watching current an MCS across Southwestern MN and it is bringing a lot of issues of DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 80 mph, LARGE HAIL to 1" in DIAMETER (possibly larger LOCALLY), and A COUPLE TORNADOES can't be ruled out ... Two rounds of severe weather expected for today's forecast ... Outflow boundary is expected to form after this first round developing some more storms from South Dakota onto the ENHANCED REGION, reinforcing the threats for Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and possible Tornado or Two ... Frequent Lightning and Very Heavy Rainfall are the LIKELY THREAT of these storms ... SLIGHT RISK region will see some DAMAGING GUSTS of 40 - 60 mph and LARGE HAIL to 1" in DIAMETER and a TORNADO can't be ruled out ... MARGINAL RISK region expected GUSTY WINDS to 60 mph and SMALL HAIL possible ... BE ON ALERT and LISTEN CLOSELY TO THE LATEST FORECAST and STATEMENTS ... -- TEMPERATURES are remaining quite chilly across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and California as much as 30 degrees below June standards ... This is causing a surprising SNOW EVENT across the Highest elevations of the Cascades / Sierra Nevada / Great Basin where 6 - 12" of snowfall is not out of the question ... with the upper-level trough intensifying there along with the Pacific stream of moisture pulling inland to supply this event ... Rainfall is a likelihood across the Pacific Northwest and Northern California ... -- TEMPERATURES are on a SUMMER LIKE RISE across the Central and Eastern portions of the Nation with an intensifying Mid to Upper Level Heat Ridge in place across the Central Plains with widespread temperatures nearing 90 across the Upper Midwest / Upper Mississippi Valley / Great Lakes for today ... Pushing eastward into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with a lot of heat and humidity causing HEAT ALERTS and AIR QUALITY ALERTS ... Going to be a tough go for the elderly and the ill ... Be sure to practice HEAT PRECAUTIONS and check up on them folks, PLEASE KEEP YOUR PETS INDOORS with plenty of fresh, cold water and a cool place to be comfortable .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Sunday! Remember to please REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Today's SEMCF's National Weather Analysis from SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David Saurer, begins with the following analysis and statements:
-- STRONG to A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS are a possibility for this afternoon and evening's forecast across the Upper Great Lakes / Upper Mississippi Valley ... Portions of the Black Hills of South Dakota ... A series of embedded shortwaves wrapping through the low pressure moving through the region ... Decent amount of instability is present to allow for some forcing and lift ahead of the trailing cold frontal boundary moving through will allow for these convective storms ... We could expect a few storms to contain GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS 40 - 60 MPH .. LARGE HAIL from .25 to 1" in DIAMETER ... FREQUENT LIGHTNING ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL leading to rapid FLASH FLOODING of low lying / poorly drained regions ... Keep in mind this forecast could upgrade to SLIGHT RISK if a certain condition would break through the cap across the region, then we could see an increase of more severe cells ... We will keep you inform of the latest forecast ... -- SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL and HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL is a possibility with the Pacific Low Pressure system progressing inland from the strong upper-level trough in place ... This is really spreading in some serious below normal temperatures into region as well ... FLOODING RAINS are a good possibility across portions of the Pacific Northwest into Northern California while the Great Basin and Intermountain West deal with some decent snowfall ... -- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES begin today as a strong ridge of high pressure bring south to southwesterly winds into the Central Plains and will be spreading eastward through the latter half of the weekend into next week for a large portions of the Central and Eastern United States with readings in the 90s in many locations ... Potential for 100 plus in the Central Plains is very likely ... DANGEROUS HEAT for certain ... This all heads to the Eastern Seaboard by Monday with plenty of Hazy, Hot, and Humid conditions through the end of the week ahead ... Heat Precautions will be much needed and follow your forecast from the National Weather Service for those details .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a pleasant Saturday. Please REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE of your FORECAST! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L. Saurer Today's National Weather Analysis Forecast outlook from SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst begins with the segment of severe weather threatening across a large portions of the Northern Plains, significant rainfall for the West Coast into Pacific Northwest, much above normal temperatures with our first Taste of Summer arriving, and the stubborn persistent polling of tropical moisture and low pressure across the Southeast and Florida Peninsula continues to hamper the forecast .... -- SEVERE WEATHER is on the agenda with a SLIGHT RISK for this afternoon and evening across portions of the Northern Plains ... MARGINAL RISK surrounds the SLIGHT RISK and then extending from Southeastern Montana through Northwestern Minnesota ... Plenty of instability in place will bust that cap open with plenty of severe parameters in place for storms capable of LARGE HAIL up to 2" in DIAMETER, DAMAGING WINDS to 70 MPH, and possibly a COUPLE TORNADOES in the SLIGHT RISK ... More ISOLATED in the MARGINAL RISK regions ... -- SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL on the agenda for the West Coast ... Pattern shifts to a much cooler and wetter forecast with powerful cold frontal boundary progressing through with rainfall amounts of 2 to as much as 4 inches locally is a possibility across the Pacific Northwest ... -- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES arrives for the weekend into early next week across the majority of the Central and Eastern United States ... A very strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build up across the Great Basin and Northern Rockies that will progress eastward to push temperatures 15 to as much 25 degrees above June standards by Saturday across the Central and Northern Plains with Central Plains looking at readings at 90s to 100s ... This is pushing eastward for the majority of the Eastern Seaboard to Northeast for Monday through Wednesday .... -- HEAVY RAINFALL with CONTINUATION of FLOODING is lingering across Florida with the stubborn frontal boundary in place ... Plenty of tropical moisture pooling along that cold front in place over Florida ... Expecting to lift northward as a warm front as that stall boundary remains over the Gulf Coast ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... -- SEVERE WEATHER is on the agenda with a SLIGHT RISK in place across portions of Central / Western Montana ... CONDITIONAL MARGINAL RISK surrounds the SLIGHT RISK across Montana ... We also have a CONDITIONAL MARGINAL RISK across portions of the High Plains and Vicinity and extending eastward across the Mid Missouri Valley to the Upper Great Lakes region ... -- A POWERFUL COASTAL LOW with a STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY with SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL will begin to impact the Pacific Northwest and West Coast for the next few days ... -- HEAVY RAINFALL / FLASH FLOODING continues to threaten the Florida Peninsula; however, becoming more widely scattered as rain expected to depart the Southeast ... -- STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW will skirt the Carolinas for today's forecast and possibly clipping Cape Cod by tomorrow AM ... Today's top story on this Thursday Edition of the SEMCF's National Weather Analysis with SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst begins with the threat for SEVERE WEATHER across the aforementioned region listed above ... Some of the storms across Central and Western Montana will reach severe criterias capable of producing DAMAGING WINDS to 60 - 70 MPH and LARGE HAIL .25 to 2" in DIAMETER ... In the CONDITIONAL MARGINAL THREAT REGIONS, we can expect strong to a few cells containing severe conditions with GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH and SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL .25 to 1" in DIAMETER ... Be on the alert and listen closely to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service via NOAA WEATHER RADIO, weather.gov, or your local media weather outlet .... The trough in the eastern Great Lakes and affecting the majority of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will become more absorbed into the circulation across the Lower Great Lakes ... This low will finally begin to shift to the East as an open wave ... This will pull out the unsettled and cool weather for the weather pattern changing into a more SUMMERLIKE pattern of Hazy, Hot, and Humid conditions over the second half of the weekend into the majority of next week ahead ... We are also noticing a trough building up across Western Canada that is sagging Southward into the Pacific Northwest and West Coast setting up the stage for a significant rainfall event and below normal temperatures ... There is a powerful cold frontal boundary associated with this very strong low .... The rainfall will be concerning for the possibility for flash flooding, be sure to watch the forecast closely and begin precautions when necessary... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Thursday ... PLEASE REMEMBER TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!!! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David Saurer -- CONDITIONAL MARGINAL THREAT of SEVERE WEATHER is possible across the High Plains / Mid-Missouri into the Upper Mississippi Valleys ... Also, portions of the Florida Peninsula ... -- COOLER WEATHER continues for the majority of the Eastern portions of the Nation with the pesky, stubborn upper-level low sticking around ... Forecast for HEAVY RAINS appearing for Southern Florida ... -- WARMER TEMPERATURES return to the Pacific Northwest before some major SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL progresses into the West Coast for the weekend ... Today's top story on this Wednesday Edition of the SEMCF's National Weather Analysis from SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst begins with the threat for some strong to possible a few storms reaching conditional marginal threat across the High Plains and the Vicinity regions and extending eastward into the Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys ... Portions of the Florida Peninsula as well ... Some strong to marginally risk severe criteria storms could contain some DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 40 - 60 mph, SMALL TO LARGE HAIL .25 to 1" ISOLATED, and COUPLE of BRIEF, WEAK TORNADOES could be possible across Central and Southern Florida's storm cells ... The heavy rainfall in the forecast for the Southeast and particularly Florida is from an elongated low pressure with tropical moisture feeding this system ... This system is forecast to track northeastward and intensify to impact the Northeast and New England for Friday's forecast before the pattern shift as I mentioned below begins... Major weather story as well is the pattern shift that is coming our way for the weekend ... The stubborn, pesky upper-level low across the Northeast will begin to finally depart and take the coolness away from the Eastern United States ... The winds will finally turn out of South to Southwest to drive the heat and humidity into a large portion of East with the TASTE OF SUMMER returning to the forecast ... A large upper-level ridge will build in ... The Pacific Northwest despite the warming trend coming your way ... There is an amplified trough ongoing across the Northwestern Pacific Ocean ... This will begin to form a closed-off low pressure storm system that will impact the Pacific Northwest and West Coast for the weekend outlook, the concerns are significant, widespread heavy rainfall with flooding potential in the forecast ... Along with the heavy precipitation comes the below normal temperatures behind this powerful, strong cold front ... Be aware of this! Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a great Wednesday! Please REMEMBER, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!!! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David Saurer -- SOME STRONG to CONDITIONALLY MARGINAL RISK for a few storms to reach severe criterias across portions of the Central Plains into the Central and Southern High Plains .... Portions of Southeastern Alabama and Southern Georgia extending southward into portions of Southern Florida ...
-- UNSETTLED and COOL CONDITIONS will prevail through Thursday's Forecast across a large portions of the Eastern United States ... -- SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL is approaching the West Coast / Pacific Northwest by Thursday morning with a new Pacific Low arriving .... Today's top story on this Tuesday Edition of the SEMCF's National Forecast Analysis from SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, begins with the threat for some strong to possible a few storms reaching conditional marginal threat across the aforementioned regions listed above ... There is the large, stubborn upper-level low pressure across the eastern Great Lakes along with a large, forming upper-level low pressure remaining off the Western North America coast ... Then you have the long-streaming ridging across the Western states going into the Central Plains causing quite a ruckus of strange weather conditions for early June standards ... We will be noticing several waves of disturbances riding the trough that will continue the progressions eastward into the Rockies and Plains allowing for the circulation by pulling moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the vicinity ... There is a cold frontal boundary that will give the forcing and lift across the Rockies and Plains that is allowing for a conditional strong to marginal threat for thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening ... Across the Southeast, been a stubborn circulating weak low that is progressing along the Gulf Coast going eastward and southeastward, however, this is going to stick around for a few more days before the ridge moves in and shut the circulation down ... In the aforementioned regions for storm in the forecast, we could see a few of them consisting of GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 mph and POSSIBLE SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL from .25 to 1" in DIAMETER in the stronger storms that form up ... A few cells across the Central / Southern Florida Peninsula could have a brief and weak spin-up TORNADO or two form ... Be on alert and aware of this situation for this afternoon and evening hours ... The significant rainfall forecast for the West Coast will be associated with the arrival of a cold frontal boundary from the eastern Pacific that will arrive in the Pacific Northwest all the way into Northern California beginning on Thursday morning into the early parts of the weekend ... Flash flooding is a possibility for the regions ... Be on the alert for this threatening conditions .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a great Tuesday and Remember, PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!!! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L. Saurer -- SEVERE STORMS are expected with a SLIGHT RISK forecast across portions of Southern Texas ... MARGINAL RISK for a few storms reaching severe criteria is expected surrounding the SLIGHT RISK in Southern Texas ... Portions of PA, NY and extended Westward and Southwestward to the Ohio Valley ... Carolinas and vicinity ... High Plains Region ... Southern Florida ...
-- A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE system forecast to sag from Hudson Bay will settled into the eastern Great Lakes for the next few days, expecting temperatures to be below early June standards with unsettled weather in the form of showers and thunderstorms for the majority of the Eastern portions of the Nation through mid-week ... -- A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY will bring some strong to conditionally MARGINAL severe storms from the Northern Rockies to the Northern High Plains for today's forecast Today's top story on this Monday AM Edition of the SEMCF's National Weather Analysis from SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David Saurer, begins with the threat for severe weather in place across the aforementioned region listed above ... An upper-level circulation centered over Southern Texas is expected to ramp up some convective activity for this afternoon and evening hours ... Models are indicating a good amount of moderate to severe instability in the atmosphere over the region that could bring some DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAIL to portion of the region ... I wouldn't be surprised to see a TORNADO or two brew up in the some stronger developing supercells in the region as well ... A couple areas of circulations associated with shortwave disturbances across the MARGINAL aforementioned regions will allow for developing of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms with the limited instability in place ... We could see a few storms capable of localized gusty to damaging winds of 40 - 60 mph and possibly some small hail up to a half of an inch in diameter ... For those of you in Southern Florida, your looking at a lot of tropical moisture pooling from the Gulf of Mexico with a tropical boundary in place with some shear favoring some development of some strong to locally severe storms containing gusty winds and small hail as well ... There is a shot of a brief tornado in the region of Southern Florida as well, so on the lookout for that for later this afternoon and evening hours ... We are also noticing some unsettled and cool conditions warranting from low pressure sagging southward from Hudson Bay, Canada settling into the Eastern Great Lakes that will bring some unusual weather for early June standards ... Folks, this will be very short lived as the outlook for next week for temperatures will soar back to mid-summer levels with heat and humidity returning to the forecast .. It could turn brutal for many ... Keep that in mind ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Monday! Please remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David Saurer |