-- SEVERE STORMS expected across portions of the Lower Great Lakes ... Eastern Oregon .. Portions of Central / Northern Idaho ... and into Western Montana ... CONDITIONAL MARGINAL RISK for storms exists across portions of the Lower Great Lakes surrounding the SLIGHT RISK extending into the Midwest ... Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain Region surrounding the SLIGHT RISK ... portions of the Upper Great Lakes ... -- COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE storm system will bring unsettled weather across the Mid-Atlantic extending into Northeast / Great Lakes with below normal for early June standards in temperatures as well ... -- RAIN SHOWERS and THUNDERSTORMS will continue in the forecast for the Deep South as tropical moisture continues to stream from the Gulf of Mexico... Today's top story on this Sunday AM Edition of the SEMCF's National Forecast Analysis from Lead Forecaster / lead Weather Analyst begins with the threat for severe weather in place across the aforementioned region listed above ... A series of mid to upper level disturbance wrapping around a set-up Northern Canada trough that will also swing in a couple cold frontal boundary through the SLIGHT and MARGINAL RISK regions across the Great Lakes will bring the modestly cool and unsettled pattern setting up for the forecast for the week ahead for the majority of the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic ... The trough is moving inland from the Pacific Northwest and will travel eastward during the course of the next 48 hours before settling around Hudson Bay, Canada for early portions of the week ahead ... Some strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from now through the early evening across the Great Lakes ... Some storms will produce DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 mph and possible LARGE HAIL up to 1" maybe 2" in DIAMETER ... Tornado threat is quite low and not expected to be an issue for today's storm activity ... Again, the threat persist now through early evening before stabilizing atmosphere takes shape and the lack of heating... Now across the Pacific Northwest / Northern Intermountain Region with the SEVERE WEATHER threat persisting there ... We could see some MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL .25 to 2" in DIAMETER in the strongest cells along with some LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS 40 - 60 mph in the strongest cells as well ... The threat should die down by mid-evening due to the lack of daytime heating and a stabilizing atmosphere ... Tornado threat is non existent ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Sunday! Always Remember to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Weather Analyst / Lead Forecaster David L. Saurer
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-- STRONG to POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS are expected to progress across the Northern Tiers of the Nation through the weekend's forecast ... -- HEAVY RAINFALL forecast over portions of Texas could very well lead to FLASH FLOODING .... Today's top story on this Saturday edition of the SEMCF National Weather Analysis from SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David Saurer, begins with the threat for severe weather in place across the Northern Tiers of the Nation going into the Northeast through the weekend ahead ... We are noticing a shift in the upper-level trough that has dominated the Northern Tiers and now going for the Northeast into the Western Atlantic ... New issue has begun with another trough digging southeastward out of the Canadian Prairie and into the North Central Plains and Upper Midwest ... A third trough is already has begin to form and is well off into the Gulf of Alaska and is threatening for portions of next week's forecast bringing with it much cooler temperatures for the Eastern portions of the Nation ... The situation starting this threat for the severe weather is accompanying by an upper-level weak low across the Upper Mississippi Valley / Upper Great Lakes with a trailing cold front that will trigger the convective activity ... We are looking at a SLIGHT RISK for today and tonight's forecast across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes where conditions favor some DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL up to 1" in DIAMETER and possible locally higher measurement could be warranted, and finally, A COUPLE TORNADOES couldn't be ruled out as well ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms in a couple cells locally could bring ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS of 40 - 60 MPH, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL from .25 to 1" in DIAMETER a good shot, and the main threat will be very heavy rainfall with potential FLASH FLOODING especially across portions of TEXAS ... The Conditional Marginal Threat are located across portions of the regions SURROUNDING the Slight Risk and some areas in the Pacific Northwest into Western Montana ... Finally, as I mentioned portions of the Middle and Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas, where I mentioned possible flooding rains could be a real issue ... Stay on alert in that region ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Saturday and Remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer -- CONDITIONAL MARGINAL THREAT for a few isolated cells capable of severe criterias will be around portions of the Northern Plains / Upper Mississippi Valley ... with scattered garden variety thunderstorms accompany the cold frontal boundary progressing from west to east across the Northern Tier states ...
-- SOME GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS will likely remain in the forecast across the Deep South as we head into the weekend forecast ... Today's top story on this Friday's edition of the SEMCF National Weather Analysis from SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst begins with the conditional threats for a few cells reach severe criteria across the aforementioned region above ... We are seeing a possibility of a CONDITIONAL ISOLATED WIND GUSTS 40 - 60 MPH in some of the strongest to conditional severe storms and POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL from .25 to 1" in DIAMETER ... The primary threat will possibly be heavy rainfall with the potential for some flash flooding in low lying areas and poorly drained areas ... Be aware in the aforementioned regions ... The forecast is primarily turning quiet across the majority of the Nation for the first weekend of June as we are NOT seeing any significant weather events that are sounding alarms ... We are seeing the upper-level trough establishing itself across Northern Canada that will bring the unsettled and cooler conditions to the Eastern half of the Nation for late weekend into next week ... The Southern states will be remaining under the influence of the heat and humidity that is typical for this time of year .. We will see with the daytime heating and some instability some thunderstorms throughout the weekend .. We are noticing as well, an upper-level disturbance across the Southern Plains that will drive the motion for convective activity in a non-severe criteria ... Again, up North, we are also watching those frontal systems digging southward from Central Canada that is going to be responsibility of the rain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the weekend with a brief warm up on the way and then the cool conditions and clearing skies will be the agenda for the early week ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Friday and Please remember to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!!! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L. Saurer HAPPY METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER FROM THE STAFF OF SEMCF -- CONDITIONAL MARGINAL THREAT for a few isolated cells capable of severe criterias will be around the Eastern regions of New England ... portions of the Northern Rockies into Central / Eastern Montana ... portions of Western Texas to portions of Mississippi ... -- ESTABLISHMENT of an upper-level trough will bring BELOW NORMAL for early June standards across portions of the Northeast ... -- THICKENING CLOUDS and OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS will hinder the forecast in the South with cooler temperatures in store .... -- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES continue with the ridge in place over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies .... Today's top story on this Thursday's edition of the SEMCF National Weather Analysis from Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David Saurer, begins with the conditional threats for a few cells reach severe criteria across the aforementioned region above ... We are seeing a possibility of a CONDITIONAL ISOLATED WIND GUSTS 40 - 60 MPH in some of the strongest to conditional severe storms and POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL from .25 to 1" in DIAMETER ... The primary threat will possibly be heavy rainfall with the potential for some flash flooding in low lying areas and poorly drained areas ... Be aware in the aforementioned regions ... We are also noticing to begin the month of June, we are seeing a very cool start for the Eastern portions of the Nation with aforementioned strong, upper-level troughing across Hudson Bay, Canada into the upper Great Lakes that will bring series of waves disturbances to keep the unsettled wet and cool conditions into the mid-range forecast ... Simply means, below normal standards in the temperatures and wetter than normal for the precipitation ... Out West, we will be establishing a strong ridge that will allow for dry conditions and above June standards in the temperatures ... That is the story ongoing across the northern areas of the Great Basin and Northern Rockies ... Intresting scenario indeed for our Nation's forecast... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... Listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS - TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Thursday and REMEMBER, TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!!! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Analyst David L. Saurer |