SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
No organized severe weather is expected across the lower 48 .. NO THUNDERSTORMS are expected anywhere across the lower 48 as well. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has an upper-level disturbance swiftly proceeding across the Upper Midwest at this hour, while the frontal boundary at the surface progressive across the Upper Midwest as well .. North of low pressure, we are watching an axis of very heavy snowfall occurring currently across the Upper Midwest where snowfall rates are approaching 2-3 inches an hour in some parts of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan ... WINTER STORM WARNINGS are in effect across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest .. By this afternoon, the majority of the snowfall activity will concentrate across the Upper Great Lakes ... The snowfall will come to an end by tonight; however, some lingering lake enhanced snowfall will be expected along portions of the favored north and northwesterly snow belts. Farther to the West, higher elevation snowfall in the forecast to be a good possibility across the mountainous terrains of Wyoming and northern Colorado for today and tonight as an upper-level disturbance proceeds the region .. This disturbance is forecast to proceed into the central Plains by Easter Sunday afternoon which will cause the snowfall to proceed from the Front Range into the central Plains by the morning hours of Easter Sunday and enter the middle Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys ... By early on Monday AM, this disturbance will proceed into the Mid-Atlantic, bringing with it snow showers and rain showers to the region .. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a threat for the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley. By Easter Sunday PM, precipitation threats are increasing across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another Pacific incoming low pressure with an upper-level trough proceeds for the region ... Expecting snowfall in the higher elevations of the Cascades and Rockies along with lower elevation valley rainfall .. Snowfall is expected to spread the axis into the northern Plains while continuing across the Cascades and northern Rockies through Monday AM. HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer
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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
No organized severe weather is expected across the lower 48 .. However, we are expecting a few general isolated storms across the eastern Carolinas southward into central and northern Florida ... Also, across portions of the Northern Plains and Missouri Valley. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a strong cold frontal boundary across the Eastern Seaboard ... bringing some showers and storms there ... Majority of the thunderstorms will occur in the Southeast and portions of Florida; however, these storms ARE NOT expected to be severe ... High temperatures ahead of the frontal boundary will be up to as much as 15 degrees above late March standards ... The cold frontal boundary will proceed off the Eastern Seaboard by late this evening and in the wake, much cooler Canadian air will filter in .. These cool conditions will continue through Easter Sunday, especially in the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. An upper-level disturbance is proceeding over the northern Rockies for the overnight tonight, bringing with it higher elevation snowfall across the northern Rockies and light rain showers as the Arctic cold frontal boundary plunges on southward ... By Saturday AM, this upper-level disturbance will enter the northern Plains .. At the surface, the frontal boundary will continue proceeding across the northern Plains and intensfying overnight .. Precipitation will develop along and north of the surface low, with the majority of the precipitation falling as snow ... Heavy snowfall is expected to begin across the northern Plains by tonight and proceed into the Upper Midwest by early Saturday AM ... The surface low is expected to proceed into southeastern Canada, with snow falling along the Upper Great Lakes region .. To the south, rain showers will proceed from the middle/upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday AM and reaching the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley by Easter Sunday AM ... Light snow showers will also be in the forecast for the interior New England into the Central Appalachians for Easter Sunday AM. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster/Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has potential for some decent severe weather across the Central Gulf Coastal Region where an outflow from previous MCS has stalled out across Northwestern Alabama to Central Mississippi with the band of storm progressing eastward across Louisania in advance of a mid-level trough .. That surface wave is expecting to eject along this outflow layer across the Central Gulf Coastal Regon for this afternoon and evening ... There is the hint of some decent surface heating with some sunshine in the early hours and should push the instability into a favored zone with rich, low-level moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico .. With the vertical shear in the deep layers of the atmosphere, we can surely see some embedded organized storms and possible supercells or bowing segments that will bring some DAMAGING WINDS, a COUPLE TORNADOES, and POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL ... The threat will wane this evening as the trough and wave weakens and unstable warm air mass is replaced ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS will lead to FLASH FLOODING THREATS in LOW LYING and POORLY DRAINED REGIONS ... The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK for today across Southeastern Louisiana into Central Alabama ... MARGINAL RISK from portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Appalachians .. Be aware and remain alert for today .. Have multiple sources to receive your forecasts, statements, and possible severe weather alerts ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO is highly advised and essential for your safety. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a complicated storm system reigning over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley that is proceeding across northeastward to the Canadian Mari times by Friday PM ... In the meantime, we can expect some rain showers and thunderstorms that will develop over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and proceeding off the Southeast Coastal Regions by Friday PM ... Rainfall will also develop over portions of the Southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley and extending the axis into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys lifting on northward then into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast by tonight ... The rainfall is expecting to end over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley by tonight as well ... Overnight Thursday, the rainfall will proceed into the Mid-Atlantic and then proceed off the majority of the Northeast Coastal Regions by Friday PM .. Some rain showers are expected to linger over portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through Friday PM before drying out. We are watching an upper-level energy wave over the Northern Rockies that is proceeding eastward to the Central and Northern Plains by tonight ... The energy wave will aid in production of snowfall over the Central and Northern Rockies through tonight ... In addition to this feature, a frontal boundary over West-Central Canada is expecting to sag southward into the Great Lakes and westward into the Northern Rockies by Friday PM ... The boundary is expecting to produce snowfall over portions of the Upper Midwest for this afternoon into Friday PM .. Additionally, Pacific onshore flow is aiding in producing some coastal rainfall over the Pacific Northwest through Friday PM. HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster/Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY 3/28: The cold frontal boundary has been reinforced by widespread overnight convention that has begun to stall out over Southeastern Texas into northern Louisiana ... A weak wave is expecting to sweep through along the front ... We are expecting embedded supercells and possible QCLS mesovortices in the line with the convective bands along and south of this quasi-stationary boundary which could very likely produce a FEW TORNADOES in today's outlook .. Mainly the threat is for LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL and LOCALLY FEW DAMAGING GUST ABOVE 60 MPH or GREATER ... TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with possible FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING will be the common threat ... The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for today and tonight across South-Central and Southeastern Texas into the ARKLAMISS region ... MARGINAL RISK been issued from Southern Texas to portions of the Mid-South ... Be on alert for today. THURSDAY 3/29: The southern stream shortwave is ejecting from the Southern Plains into the Tennessee River Valley with a confluent flow aloft .. The surface low is expecting to take the surface path of the shortwave with the adforementioned cold frontal boundary spreading showers and strong to severe storms across the Southern Plains, Southeast, and TN/OH Valleys ... THREAT WILL MAINLY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH or GREATER and a TORNADO or TWO ... The Storm Prediction Center issued a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for Thursday across the Deep South with a MARGINAL RISK across the Deep South and nearby Gulf Coastal Region. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a frontal boundary extending across the Southern Plains into the Lower Great Lakes that is expecting to become a quasi-stationary boundary ... This secondary frontal boundary will be forecast to reinforce the eastern boundary for Thursday ... Showers and storms will begin development over portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley that will proceed through Thursday AM ... On Thursday, the showers and storms will proceed into portions of the Southeast through Thursday PM ... In addition, the moisture is expecting to flow along the boundary aidiing development of rainfall along the frontal boundary from the Tennessee Valley extending the axis into the Northeast with proceeding off the coast by this afternoon and evening ... For this afternoon, rain will begin to proceed into the Northern Mid-Atlantic .. The rainfall continues along the boundary from portions of the Tennessee Valley northeastward into the Northern Mid-Atlantic through Thursday AM ... Upper-level energy is expected over the Southern High Plains continuing to flow northeastward to the Upper Ohio Valley by Thursday PM ... This energy is aiding in pulling the rainfall into the Mid Mississippi Valley by this evening and expanding the axis into the Great Lakes by Thursday AM and into the Northeast by the evening. We are watching another frontal system over the Northern Plains that is ejecting southeastward to the Mid Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains and then on eastward to the Upper Great Lakes by early Thursday AM ... This feature on the Western and Central portions of the aforementioned boundary will begin to dissipate on Thursday AM as the boundary reinforces the lead boundary over the eastern third of the Nation ... The frontal boundary is aiding producing snowfall and rainfall over portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and snowfall over portions of the Northern Rockies for this morning ... The rain and snow showers will proceed into the Upper Great Lakes by this evening and dissipating by Thursday AM ... The snowfall will proceed into the Central Rockies by this evening, and likewise, dissipating as well by Thursday AM ... A third frontal system will proceed southward out of West-Central Canada on Thursday expecting over the Northern Plains .. The frontal system will aid in producing scattered snow showers over portions of the Northern High Plains on Thursday afternoon and evening ... Additionally, onshore Pacific flow and upper-level energy is aiding on producing some coastal rainfall and higher elevation mountain snowfall over portions of Washington state for Thursday. HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
We have a multiple day event ahead for severe weather from today through Wednesday across the Southern Plains, ARKLATEX region, and into the Gulf Coastal Region ... TUESDAY 3/27: The same feature on Monday will continue well into today with the synoptic cold frontal boundary extend across east central Oklahoma to Southern Texas Plains .. convective outflows also will trigger this event ... Low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with steep lapse rates with a warm sector CAPE values favorable for some supercells to develop and vertical shear ... The main feature is deep layer flow and shear vectors contributing to bands of thunderstorms and undercutting the outflow ... Bowing segments are strongly forecast .. This will become MAINLY A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL EVENT ... A TORNADO or TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT ... This threat will take place across the Southern Plains northeastward into the ARKLATEX and the Southern Ozarks The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK through tonight from South Central Texas into the ARKLATEX ... MARGINAL RISK from West and Central Texas through Central Arkansas ... WEDNESDAY 3/28: The upper-level flow will do a split pattern over the Nation for Wednesday's outlook with the southern streamer low over New Mexico becoming a open as this proceed quickly east-northeastward and phase out ... Scattered rain showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will form portions of Southern and Eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley where the main threat will be LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL, and a TORNADO or TWO .. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms across South/East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and a MARGINAL RISK from South/East Texas to the Tennessee River Valley. THURSDAY 3/29: Strong cyclonic flow with a large-scale trough will be over the Midwest .. There is some uncertainities involving the severe weather threat across the Gulf Coastal States with ongoing bands of storms expected earlier in the day. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather across the Deep South ... MARGINAL RISK across the Deep South and the nearby Gulf Coastal States ... Threats will be mainly DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, and a possible TORNADO or TWO. More details ahead. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook a frontal boundary extending across the Southern Plains and going northeastward to the Great Lakes becoming a quasi-stationary boundary proceeding snail slow to the Lower Great Lakes to the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast by Wednesday PM ... Moisture from the Western end of the Gulf of Mexico will stream on northward pooling along this boundary through Wednesday PM ... Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary over the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley that will expand into the Tennessee Valley overnight tonight and into portions of the Southeast/Southern Appalachians by Wednesday PM ... Rain, heavy at times, will develop along the boundary over portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley into portions of the Ohio Valley through Wednesday PM as well .. Rainfall will also extend into the Great Lakes that will proceed into the Lower Great Lakes and the Central Appalachians by this evening ... The rainfall will continue to proceed into the Northeast on Wednesday AM, ending over the Northeast by Wednesday PM ... As the rainfall proceed into the Northeast there will be a window of rain/freezing rain over the region for this morning into Wednesday AM .. In addition, on Wednesday, the rainfall will proceed into the Northern Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday PM ... Furthermore, snowfall will begin development over portions of the Central/Southern Rockies for this morning and ending overnight tonight. Meanwhile, looking at onshore Pacific flow and upper-level impulses aiding in producing rainfall and higher elevations snowfall over portions of the Pacific Northwest that will end on Wednesday AM .. Snowfall should also develop over portions of the Northern Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies for today expanding the axis into the Central Rockies by Wednesday PM ... Additionally, a frontal boundary is proceeding out of Canada, overnight tonight, will proceed southeastward into the Great Central Plains and extending into the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday PM ... The system is expecting to develop rainfall over portions of the Northern Plains overnight tonight that will mix with snow showers over portions of the Northern Plains for Wednesday PM forecast ... The rain and snow mixture will proceed into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday PM. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
We have a multiple day event ahead for severe weather from today through Wednesday across the Southern Plains, ARKLATEX region, and into the Gulf Coastal Region ... MONDAY 3/26: The continuation of severe weather will push into the Southern Plains for the afternoon and evening hours with the upper-level pattern continuing to dominate the region with a slow-moving, positive tilted trough over the West with the upper-level ridge continuing in the Eastern regions of the Nation ... Amplified shortwave embedded in the southwest flow will continue the advances in the central and southern Plains with the warm frontal boundary forecast to extend across Southeastern Oklahoma and the lower Mississippi Valley from the surface low over the Central High Plains, then the dryline forming and extending on southward from low through western Texas ... Cold frontal boundary proceeds southward through the Central Plains and merging with the dryline in Northwestern Oklahoma in the evening hours .... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for some severe storms for this afternoon and evening from Northwestern Texas into Central Oklahoma with the threat for LARGE HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS common, a TORNADO or TWO can't be ruled out as well ... MARGINAL RISK extends from Southwestern Texas to the Ozarks where the main threat is LARGE HAIL and LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL will produce some FLASH FLOODING with FLASH FLOOD WATCHES posted in a large region .. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING as well ... TUESDAY 3/27: The same feature on Monday will continue well into Tuesday with ISOLATED strong to severe thunderstorms becoming a possibility across southwestern Texas into central and northeastern Texas ... These storms will produce LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH or GREATER, and a TORNADO or TWO ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK from Southwestern through Central and Northeastern Texas ... MARGINAL RISK from portions of Southern Plains into northeastern Texas ... WEDNESDAY 3/28: Strong to severe storms are expected to be a good possibility from portions of south and southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley region where LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH OR GREATER, and a COUPLE TORNADOES .. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK from portions of south and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and a MARGINAL RISK surrounding the SLIGHT RISK ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a storm system over the Central/Southern Plains that will slowly proceed on northeastward to the Great Lakes by Tuesday PM ... This system is expected to produce snowfall over portions of the Central/Northern Rockeis northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley for today that will then wane over the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains by late tonight ... The snowfall should end over the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday afternoon as the snowfall proceeds into Southern Canada .. Rain showers and thunderstorms will develop over portions of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley that will the nexpand southwestward along and ahead of the associated dryline/frontal boundary by this evening ... Overnight Monday, the rain showers and storms will intensify with heavy rainfall at times over the Middle Mississippi Valley with FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT ... The showers and storms will be confined to Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday PM ... As the Northern half of the Central Plains and the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon will expand into portions of the Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by this evening ... The rain showers will continue to spread eastward into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Tuesday AM and into the Lower Great Lakes/Central Appalachians by Tuesday PM .. The rainfall will then end over the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, upper-level energy in a deep, upper-level trough over Southern California into the Great Basin/ Northern Rockies will begin developing into an upper-level low over the Southwest by Tuesday AM that will slowly begin to weaken by Tuesday PM ... The energy is expecting to develop snowfall over portions of the Central Rockies into the Southwest overnight Monday ... By Tuesday PM, the snow showers and lower elevation rainfall will proceed into the Central/Southern Rockies ... In addition, showers and storms will develop over the Southern High Plains on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening ... Additionally, upper-level energy is expecting to proceed over the Northwest and onshore Pacific flow will aid in producing coastal rain showers and higher elevation snow showers over the Pacific Northwest that will continue through Tuesday evening .. Snowfall will also develop over portions of the Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Rockies Monday PM into Tuesday PM. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
We have a multiple day event ahead for severe weather from today through Wednesday across the Southern Plains, ARKLATEX region, and into the Gulf Coastal Region ... SUNDAY 3/25: We are expecting to see the upper-level ridge in the Plains proceeding for the Mississippi Valley as mid-level flow remains across the Plains .. A low pressure system is expected to deepen in the region across the Central and Southern Rockies and forming a dryline out of southeastern Colorado into west-central and northwestern Texas for this afternoon late ... There is an issue with a capping inversion in place accordingly to the NAM model across central and eastern Texas, however, the models are indicating a gradually weakening trend on the capping inversion allowing for some moderate instability to proceed into the region ... As this happens, the dryline will advance through and begins some low-level convergence in the region and allow for a few thunderstorms cells tor fire up on the HRRR models just to the east of the dryline that will be located EAST of Lubbock to Altus, OK .. This could develop some supercells proceeding eastward as the evening wears on into the SLIGHT RISK region ... THREAT INCLUDES LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH or GREATER, and a COUPLE TORNADOES giving the storm relative helicities being favorable environment ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for portions of West-Central Texas, Northwestern Texas, and Southwestern Oklahoma ... MARGINAL RISK will be across a good portion of the Central and Southern Plains ... BE SURE TO BE ON ALERT, HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES to RECEIVE YOUR WEATHER FORECASTS, STATEMENTS, and POSSIBLE WATCHES/WARNINGS ... IT IS VERY ESSENTIAL TO HAVE A NOAA WEATHER RADIO TO RECIEVE YOUR IMPORTANT WEATHER BULLETINS ... MONDAY 3/26: The continuation of severe weather will push into the Southern Plains for the afternoon and evening hours with the upper-level pattern continuing to dominate the region with a slow-moving, positive tilted trough over the West with the upper-level ridge continuing in the Eastern regions of the Nation ... Amplified shortwave embedded in the southwest flow will continue the advances in the central and southern Plains with the warm frontal boundary forecast to extend across Southeastern Oklahoma and the lower Mississippi Valley from the surface low over the Central High Plains, then the dryline forming and extending on southward from low through western Texas ... Cold frontal boundary proceeds southward through the Central Plains and merging with the dryline in Northwestern Oklahoma in the evening hours .... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for some severe storms across portions of Texas into Oklahoma ... LARGE HAIL and LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH or GREATER expected, and a TORNADO or TWO can't be ruled out on the low end ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms will be over a portion of the Southern Plains. TUESDAY 3/27: The same feature on Monday will continue well into Tuesday with ISOLATED strong to severe thunderstorms becoming a possibility across southwestern Texas into central and northwestern Texas ... These storms will produce LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH or GREATER, and a TORNADO or TWO ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK from Southwestern through Central and Northeastern Texas ... MARGINAL RISK from portions of Texas into Arkansas ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a frontal boundary in the Southeast that is extended westward into the Southern Plains that is expecting to be forecast as a quasi-stationary frontal boundary through late tonight ... The western end of this boundary is beginning a transition to a northward warm frontal boundary on Monday ... Forecast calling for showers and thunderstorms developing along the boundary from portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast with rainfall developing over portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Southern Mid-Atlantic ... These showers and thunderstorms are expecting to continue through tonight ... With the overnight, showers and storms are expecting to lift northward into portions of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday PM ... Also on Monday, expecting these showers and storms developing along and ahead of the associated boundary over the Southern Plains through Monday PM and continuing into Tuesday ... The showers and storms will slowly dissipate into the Southeast overnight Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, we are observing closely a deep, upper-level trough over the West Coast that will slowly proceed eastward into the Northern High Plains to the Southwest through Monday PM ... Snowfall will develop over portions of the Northern Plains into portions of the Northern Rockies through this morning that will slowly proceed into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley by this evening and expanding into portions of the Upper Great Lakes for Monday ... The snowfall will also develop over portions of the Northern Rockies and portions of the Great Basin by this evening that will proceed into the Central Rockies overnight into Monday PM ... Early on Monday AM, rainfall will begin development over portions of the Central Plain that is expected to expand the axis into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Western Ohio Valley through Monday PM ... Between the mix of rain and snow, a band of freezing rain and rain will develop over portions of the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley early on Monday AM into Monday PM ... In addition, coastal rainfall and higher elevation mountain snowfall will develop over portions of Northern California this morning expecting to end this evening ... By Sunday PM, coastal rainfall and higher elevation snowfall will proceed into the Pacific Northwest and continuing through Monday PM. HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
We can expect to be watching a mid-level shortwave through over the Central Rockies that will be progresses east-northeastward to the Central Plains by early tonight, downstream expecting the deep trough just off the Pacific Northwest coastal region .. Other than a few low-topped thunderstorms within the steep lapse rates, post-frontal environment near the Pacific Northwest coast, the main storm threat will be in the ejecting shortwave trough in the Central Plains ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Kanasas/Nebraska border with a MARGINAL RISK for some severe storms .. Main threat will be localized DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAIL. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a storm system over the Central and Northern High Plains that is proceeding southeastward to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys by Saturday PM ... This system will be responsible for some rainfall and higher elevation snowfall over portions of the Great Bain and into the Central and Northern Rockies along with the Northern Plains for this morning ... The snowfall and rainfall will end over portions of the Northern Rockies by this afternoon and over the Central Rockies and Great Basin by tonight .. Rainfall and snowfall will proceed into portions of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley by tonight that will continue to expand the axis southeastward into the Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians by Saturday AM into the PM ... Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Central Plains as I mentioned above by this evening and proceeding for the Middle Mississippi Valley by Saturday AM and into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday PM .. In addition, the rainfall will proceed into portions of the Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday AM into the evening hours. Meanwhile, a deep, upper-level low just off the Northwest Coastal Region will eject areas of upper-level energy into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies into portions of Northern California by Saturday PM ... This system is expecting to produce rainfall and higher elevation snowfall over portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California for this morning that will slowly expand eastward into the Northern Intermountain Region by this evening ... As the upper-level low begins to proceed inland, the snow levels are expecting to lower to near the coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest for the overnight into Saturday ... Snowfall will also begin development over portions of the Sierras overnight expanding into portions of the Northern Rockies by Saturday PM. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Amplified low pressure storm system with a flow field aloft with the Central portion of the Nation under a high pressure ridge dome will be dominated with troughs in the Eastern and Western portions of the Nation will bring that shortwave disturbance in through California for the period ... The result will be from The Storm Prediction Center a MARGINAL RISK for portions of the Central Valleys of California where a couple TORNADOES could become a possibility for today. Be on the alert and watch the weather closely. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the heavy snowfall impacting portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic into the coastal regions of New England as this nor'easter continues to slowly progress to the northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes .. The snowfall will begin to tamper off as this surface low finally pulls out from the region ... The snowfall is being confined mainly for Maine and finally coming to the end by tonight. In other weather features across the Nation, long duration of rainfall is in the forecast for central and southern California leading to areal flooding and possible mudslides and debris flow where wildfires hampered the region earlier in the year ... High risk for excessive rainfall in the region ... In addition, heavy snowfall is expected in the Sierra Nevadas where 2 - 4 feet with locally up to five feet is possible .. Precipitation finally comes to an end in the Sierra Nevadas and southern California by Friday AM .. Further to the north, coastal rain showers and mountain snowfall, heavy at times, will be in the forecast for the Pacific Northwest and spreading on into the Great Basin and Intermountain West. HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
NO severe weather is anticipated for today's outlook, only a few general storms possible in the Intermountain West and across the West Coast. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has active pattern continuing across the Nation with another nor'easter, the fourth one in three weeks impacting the Eastern Seaboard during the next couple of days ... This nor'easter is a prolonged one than the previous three with the large, upper-level cyclone currently over the Ohio Valley that will proceed eastward while interacting and intensfying a developing surface cyclone just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast .. These two features are expected to merge and rapidly deepen during the course of today off the Delmarva Peninsula as energey is taken from the cold, upper-level low to intensfy the system over relatively warmer Atlantic waters .. Rain will intially be the primary source of precipitaiton near the coastal areas with the rain/snow mix forecast to progress eastward towards the coast when the colder air from the upper-level low arrives .. As this cyclone expected to intensify rapidly just off the coast, bursts of heavy snowfall could form on the back end of the system across the northern Mid-Atlantic, spreading northward into southern New England by this evening .. Winds will also be strengthening throughout today, especially along the Eastern Seaboard where coastal flooding will become likely possible ... If this coincides with heavy snow bands, conditions could really approach blizzard criteria in portions of southern New England and the New Jersey coast .. By Thursday, the snow and winds will be impacting Coastal New England into Maine, but conditions will improve as the day progresses when the nor'easter departs into the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, the frontal system approaching California is energetic and moisture-laiden with atmospheric river in motion ... This system is forecast to interact with a large, upper-level low sagging southward from the Gulf of Alaska over the next couple of days to forecast spread unsettled weather into the majority of the Western areas of the Nation ... The heaviest rainfall is forecast for central and southern California where FLASH FLOODING is likely ... Heavy snowfall is expected for the Sierra Nevada where snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4' is likely possible with localized amounts to 5' possible ... By Friday AM, the northern edge of the shield could reach the Northern Plains with wet snow in the forecast. HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Morning Edition of the National Storm Channel
TUESDAY, MARCH 20TH, 2018 Assistant Forecaster / Social Media Coordinator David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK: TUESDAY, MARCH 20TH: With the upper level low deepening over the Southeast, the upper-level jet develops rapidly over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and this will cause the trough to proceed rapidly with a rapid cooling aloft overspreading the majority of Southern Georgia and Northern Florida ... A cold frontal boundary is progressing across the region during the course of Tuesday .. Plenty of instability will be in the atmosphere over this region ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following threats: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms persisting from the NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA to PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS .. This will include the metro regions of JACKSONVILLE, TAMPA AND ST PETERSBURG, ORLANDO, and SAVANNAH ... SLIGHT RISK for severe storms persisting from the CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA to the OUTER BANKS of NORTH CAROLINA .. This will include the metro regions of PORT SAINT LUCIE, JACKSONVILLE NC, BRADENTON FL, SARASOTA FL, and PORT CHARLOTTE FL ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms persisting from FLORIDA to PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ... This will include the metro regions of TALLAHASSEE, CAPE CORAL FL, FAYETTEVILLE NC, FORT MYERS FL, and LEHIGH ACRES FL ... THREATS INCLUDES: DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 - 70 MPH, DESTRUCTIVE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL to 3" in DIAMETER, and a FEW TORNADOES .... It is very essential and likely to need SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS and PREPARATION for this possible potentially dangerous event for this afternoon and this evening .. Please have multiple sources to receive the latest forecasts, statements, and alerts .. Try and have a NOAA Weather Radio on hand at all times to listen for all the latest with this incoming event .. If you receive a WARNING, PLEASE TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY and go to center of your home if you DO NOT have a BASEMENT .. IF YOU DO, go there and get under a table or have something to protect your body in case of immediate danger. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the majority of the coastal areas on both the Eastern Seaboard and the West Coast under a persistent, active wet pattern for the next few days with the Central regions of the Nation under a fairly mild and dry pattern ... The storm system responsible for the destructive severe weather across MS, AL, TN, and GA yesterday is now progressing across the Southern Appalachians, Southeast/Mid-Atlantic for today's outlook generating a round of rain showers and thunderstorms of a widespread variety ... Several of these complex bowline segments will have embedded supercells capable of severe weather and producing very heavy rainfall with potential for flash flooding. We also are looking at a feature of frontal boundaries and surface lows evolving through the trough over the Eastern half of the Nation with colder, Canadian air filtering in as moisture proceeds northeastward into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, this will allow for a changeover from rain to a wintry mix for this morning across portions of the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic region ... Accumulations and coverage will be increasing in nature across the Northeast as this system progresses up the coastal areas ... The greater potential for heavier snowfall accumulations at this time seems to be across the higher elevations of the Appalachians and into portions of New Jersey, the New York City metro region into Southern New England for this evening, overnight, and into the day on Wednesday. Finally, a long duration rainfall event is underway across the majority of Southern California thanks to a Pacific system proceeding inland with plenty of Pacific onshore moisture flow .. Relatively slow progression of the moisture axis is directed for this region .. The forecast is calling for several inches of heavy rainfall to the coastal regions and inland areas for today ... Given the recent wildfires, flash flooding is a big concern in the Los Angeles basin ... This could extending into the Sierra's lower elevations .. Very heavy snowfall accumulation expected above 8000' in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
MONDAY, MARCH 19TH: The Birmingham AL National Weather Service Office has highlighted LOCALLY ENHANCED RISK for severe storms ... However, given the notion of the timing of the shortwave trough will be the key critical role on how the event underfolds for your Monday ... Models are still spread out on this feature along with the potential for severe weather ... The most probable solution accordingly to the NAM, GFS, and EUROPEAN MODELS seems to say some isolated, potentially significant severe storms could become a real issue from Middle Tennessee into Northern Alabama and Georgia, depending upon how much destabilization could occur especially in Tennessee .. The forecast models has shown substantial storm coverage over the majority of Southern Georgia into northern Florida, possibly an Mesoscale Complex System, with mainly wind damage with the potential given with undirectional flow ... This is one to watch closely, and there is a potential for an upgrade to ENHANCED RISK to go along with the NWS BIRMINGHAM AL call ... There is a possibility that this could become an upgrade in portions of this region to a MODERATE RISK, however, there is uncertainities for mesoscale diagnosis tendencies, so therefore, this is definitely an event to watch very closely, For right now, The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms over MID TENNESSEE, CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA, and NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA .. This includes the cities of NASHVILLE, ATLANTA, BIRMINGHAM, HUNTSVILLE, and CHATTANOOGA ... Several Tornadoes, a few STRONG ONES are POSSIBLE, VERY LARGE to SEVERE SIZE HAIL, and DESTRUCTIVE WINDS GREATER THAN 70 MPH possible ... SLIGHT RISK for severe storms SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and extending across the majority of GEORGIA and FLORIDA PANHANDLE .. ALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS are POSSIBLE ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK ... ALL THESE STORMS will have the possibility of DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, and POSSIBLY LIKELY FLASH FLOODING. BE ON ALERT! It is very essential and likely to need SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS and PREPARATION for this possible potentially dangerous event for this afternoon and this evening .. Please have multiple sources to receive the latest forecasts, statements, and alerts .. Try and have a NOAA Weather Radio on hand at all times to listen for all the latest with this incoming event .. If you receive a WARNING, PLEASE TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY and go to center of your home if you DO NOT have a BASEMENT .. IF YOU DO, go there and get under a table or have something to protect your body in case of immediate danger. TUESDAY, MARCH 20TH: With the upper level low deepening over the Southeast, the upper-level jet develops rapidly over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and this will cause the trough to proceed rapidly with a rapid cooling aloft overspreading the majority of Southern Georgia and Northern Florida ... A cold frontal boundary is progressing across the region during the course of Tuesday .. Plenty of instability will be in the atmosphere over this region ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following threats: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms persisting across NORTHERN FLORIDA, SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA, AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA including the metro regions of JACKSONVILLE, SAVANNAH, GAINESVILLE, CHARLESTON, and SPRING HILL ... SEVERE WINDS, A FEW TORNADOES, and LARGE HAIL will accompany these storms and supercells ... SLIGHT RISK for severe storms persisting across CENTRAL FLORIDA into SOUTH CAROLINA .. ALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK are POSSIBLE ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms persisting from CENTRAL FLORIDA into SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the strong low pressure storm system proceeding out of the Central Plains into the southern Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday before it proceeds offshore of the Carolina, this system is going to deepen and begin to proceed northeast .. In the cold sector, snowfall is expected over the Central Plains and will slowly proceed for the middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday ... Along and ahead of the frontal boundary, the warm sector will have plenty of instability, moisture, and the severe weather ingredients all thanks to the surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico going northward, this is going to produce plenty of rain showers and strong to severe thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf states, eastern Tennessee Valley, and portions of the Southeast .. There is a concern for torrential downpours/heavy rainfall that will produce some flash flooding over the region ... Some light snow showers will be developing over the Central Appalachians where the cooler air will reside for Tuesday. Meanwhile, the upper-level energy wave over portions of the Northern High Plains is expected to proceed eastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday; which will begin to generate snow showers over portions of the Northern Intermountain West/Northern Rockies into portions of the Northern Plains and will then expand the axis into the Upper Mississippi Valley into Tuesday AM .. A second region of upper-level energy is just off the Pacific Northwest Coastal Regions expecting to proceed inland overnight Monday into Tuesday morning .. The onshore Pacific flow will result in coastal rain showers and higher elevation snow showers over the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday ... By Tuesday PM, the rain showers will begin over portions of California ... This upcoming event could very well lead to increasing flooding concerns for the region. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY, MARCH 18TH: The potent shortwave disturbance and trough will begin to proceed across the Southern Rockies during the day, and a very powerful mid level jet overspreading the central and southern High Plains in the evening hours with some rapidly cooling aloft over the region ... Low pressure is expected to deepen over eastern Colorado and western Kansas with an associated cold frontal boundary that will support strong lift with the interaction of marginal instability supporting rapidly developing thunderstorms ... In the south, wave is proceeding across northeastern Texas with shortwave ridging over the lower Mississippi Valley ... There will be a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending across the mid-South into Mississippi and Alabama with some decent values in the dew points supporting scattered thunderstorm development beneath a strong flow aloft supporting a few strong to severe storms ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms from Northern Texas through the Red River Valley through the Central Gulf Coastal States to Southern Georgia and Far Northern Florida ... THREATS INCLUDES LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS, and a COUPLE TORNADOES .. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, and POORLY DRAINED FLASH FLOODING is expected ... MARGINAL RISK surrounds the SLIGHT RISK into Oklahoma and Texas for mainly LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO RAPID POORLY DRAINED REGIONS OF FLASH FLOODING ... MONDAY, MARCH 19TH: The Birmingham AL National Weather Service Office has highlighted LOCALLY ENHANCED RISK for severe storms ... However, given the notion of the timing of the shortwave trough will be the key critical role on how the event underfolds for your Monday ... Models are still spread out on this feature along with the potential for severe weather ... The most probable solution accordingly to the NAM, GFS, and EUROPEAN MODELS seems to say some isolated, potentially significant severe storms could become a real issue from Middle Tennessee into Northern Alabama and Georgia, depending upon how much destabilization could occur especially in Tennessee .. The forecast models has shown substantial storm coverage over the majority of Southern Georgia into northern Florida, possibly an Mesoscale Complex System, with mainly wind damage with the potential given with undirectional flow ... This is one to watch closely, and there is a potential for an upgrade to ENHANCED RISK to go along with the NWS BIRMINGHAM AL call ... For right now, The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms persisting for Middle Tennessee, Northern Alabama, and Far Northeastern Georgia where VERY LARGE TO SEVERE SIZE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS exceeding 70 MPH, and a FEW TORNADOES, and perhaps could see a couple STRONG TORNADOES as well .. This region needs to be on heightened alert and practice SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS by having multiple sources for receiving your statements and alert .. This has a potential to be a dangerous day of severe weather in this region ... STAY ON ALERT AT ALL TIMES! SLIGHT RISK for severe storms from Tennessee southeastward into Georgia and Northern Florida persist for LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS exceeding 60 MPH or greater, and a couple TORNADOES. MARGINAL RISK is persisting for the majority of the Southeast for storms containing LARGE HAIL and LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ALL THESE STORMS will have the possibility of DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, and POSSIBLY LIKELY FLASH FLOODING. BE ON ALERT! TUESDAY, MARCH 20TH: With the upper level low deepening over the Southeast, the upper-level jet develops rapidly over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and this will cause the trough to proceed rapidly with a rapid cooling aloft overspreading the majority of Southern Georgia and Northern Florida ... A cold frontal boundary is progressing across the region during the course of Tuesday .. Plenty of instability will be in the atmosphere over this region ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following threats: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms persisting for Northern Florida where the threats of DAMAGING WINDS exceeding 70 MPH and a couple TORNADOES likely for this region ... SLIGHT RISK for severe storms persisting across the majority of CENTRAL and NORTHERN FLORIDA for DAMAGING WINDS exceeding 60 MPH or greater and a TORNADO or TWO ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms persisting for Far Southern Georgia into the majority of Central Florida for DAMAGING WINDS and HAIL, a possible TORNADO could occur. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has some rough weather to be concerned about with showers and storms expected as I mentioned above over the Southern Plains and Gulf Coastal States with the transport of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico over the stalled stationary frontal boundary in place ... Some of these storms, once again, will become strong or severe ... This same system will be spreading snowfall and mix precipitation across portions of the Ohio Valley, northern Mid-Atlantic and southern portions of the Northeast for late on Monday into Tuesday. We are also watching closely an upper-level energy wave proceeding around a deepening upper-level trough building across central California that is expected to proceed for the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains by Monday ... The forecast is calling for rainfall and higher elevation snowfall for portions of the Pacific Northwest Coastal Regions through Monday AM, as well as, portions of the Northern Rockies .. Snowfall will begin expanding the axis eastward out of the Southwest and Central/Southern Rockies into the Central/Northern High Plains by this evening ... Snowfall is forecast to become heavy at times for portions of the Central and Northern Rockies over the next couple of days ... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for portions of the Intermountain West and the Southern Rockies ... Finally, the West Coast will begin the transition phase to a prolonged wet pattern by mid week .. Portions of California will likely see a much needed duration of rainfall that could lead to significant impacts, including debris flows, mudslides, and flooding. HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY, ST PATRICKS DAY: We have a three-day potential severe weather event underway beginning today through Monday evening ... A progessive shortwave through is proceeding across the Ohio Valley to the coastal regions of the Carolinas and Southeast Virginia for today ... An area of low pressure and an associated cold frontal boundary with a progressing mid-level trough will be the agenda for today's outlook with a warm frontal boundary shifting a bit northward through Kentucky and Southern West Virginia .. The western extend of the cold frontal boundary is expected to advance more slowly than previous models southward across the Mid-South into Northern Texas becoming parallel to the westerly flow ... A dryline will begin to extend southward from the surface low with surface heating allowing for a good lift for thunderstorm development for today ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms over the Dallas - Fort Worth metroplex and Central and Northern Texas where LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, and a COUPLE TORNADOES could become a heightened issue ... MARGINAL RISK is issued SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK into the ARKLATEX region .. Also, Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee into portions of Southern Virginia and Northern/Western North Carolina where HAIL and LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS are expected ... SUNDAY, MARCH 18TH: The potent shortwave disturbance and trough will begin to proceed across the Southern Rockies during the day, and a very powerful mid level jet overspreading the central and southern High Plains in the evening hours with some rapidly cooling aloft over the region ... Low pressure is expected to deepen over eastern Colorado and western Kansas with an associated cold frontal boundary that will support strong lift with the interaction of marginal instability supporting rapidly developing thunderstorms ... In the south, wave is proceeding across northeastern Texas with shortwave ridging over the lower Mississippi Valley ... There will be a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending across the mid-South into Mississippi and Alabama with some decent values in the dew points supporting scattered thunderstorm development beneath a strong flow aloft supporting a few strong to severe storms ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK across portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and the ARKLATEX region where a few storms could contain LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, and a COUPLE TORNADOES ... A SLIGHT RISK is also in places across Southwestern Kansas and Northwestern Oklahoma ... MARGINAL RISK is in place for portions of the Central Plains into the Central Gulf Coast where HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS with a possible TORNADO could persist. MONDAY, MARCH 19TH: The Birmingham AL National Weather Service Office has highlighted LOCALLY ENHANCED RISK for severe storms ... However, given the notion of the timing of the shortwave trough will be the key critical role on how the event underfolds for your Monday ... Models are still spread out on this feature along with the potential for severe weather ... The most probable solution accordingly to the NAM, GFS, and EUROPEAN MODELS seems to say some isolated, potentially significant severe storms could become a real issue from Middle Tennessee into Northern Alabama and Georgia, depending upon how much destabilization could occur especially in Tennessee .. The forecast models has shown substantial storm coverage over the majority of Southern Georgia into northern Florida, possibly an Mesoscale Complex System, with mainly wind damage with the potential given with undirectional flow ... This is one to watch closely, and there is a potential for an upgrade to ENHANCED RISK to go along with the NWS BIRMINGHAM AL call ... For right now, The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following: SLIGHT RISK for severe storms across the majority of Alabama, Georgia, Southern Tennessee, as well as Northern Florida and Northeastern Mississippi for possible LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DESTRUCTIVE and DAMAGING WINDS, and SEVERAL TORNADOES (in question right now) ... MARGINAL RISK is in place for the majority of the Southeast for DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ... Once again, this forecast could upgrade in the later outlooks, so stay tuned for the latest forecast. More details to come .... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has scattered to widespread snowfall expected across the Western areas of the Nation that is beginning to taper this weekend with the mentioned upper-level trough and surface cold frontal boundary proceeding east from the Intermountain West into the Plains .. As this upper-level system proceeds eastward, disturbances will remain in place over the Pacific Northwest Coastal Regions and into Montana keeping the weather cold, cloudy, and unsettled .. Another potent Pacific storm system is approaching the West Coast and shaping the weather pattern to bring widespread rainfall to California into early next week. The combination of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow is spreading across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and northern Mid-Atlantic regions as a winter storm system travels to the Eastern Seaboard .. Snowfall amounts are expected to be on the light side; however, ice accumulations up to, or exceeding a tenth of an inch will become a possibility .. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect from central Iowa to northern Virginia .. Snowfall is forecast to continue for portions of the Northeast as a reinforcing shot of cold, Canadian air approaches. Finally, moderate to locally heavy rainfall is dwindling down as a cold frontal boundary proceeds south into the Gulf Coastal Region before stalling on Sunday in advance of the next storm system to eject out of the Southern Plains .. Read above for details .. ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS will continue to persist across the Southern Plains for the weekend with the gusty winds and low relative humidity in place. HAVE A GREAT ST PATRICKS DAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has a negative tilted shortwave proceeding through the Central Plains at this time and expected to weaken and it proceeds for the lower and middle Missouri Valley for this afternoon and evening .. It is forecast to become an open wave across the middle Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley for overnight into Saturday .. With the subtle ridging taking place as the wave moves through the southern extent of the MARGINAL RISK that is issued by The Storm Prediction Center .. A dry line is expected to form extending from the Kansas low pressure center southward across the southern Plains .. The western extent of the moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico will spawn off thunderstorm development in the MARGINAL RISK area with includes the lower Missouri Valley into Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys ... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into the evening hours with VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL HIGH ON THE END, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS, and a POSSIBLE TORNADO is on the agenda ... Be on Alert and have multiple sources to receive your weather statements and alerts. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has scattered to widespread snowfall expected in the forecast for the Western regions of the Nation as an upper-level low proceeds slowly south and east over the area ... The favored higher terrain regions will have a long duration event of heavy snowfall especially in the Sierras where forecast accumulating snowfall amounts of two to as much as four feet is expected ... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES and WINTER STORM WARNINGS are in effect for portions of California, Oregon, Nevada, and portions of Nebraska. Majority of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains will also have snowfall as well with a frontal boundary and developing low pressure along the front range combined with the approaching cold frontal boundary over the Great Basin/Intermountain West .. The heaviest snowfall, 6 - 12 inches, is expected across the western South Dakota/Nebraska border with WINTER STORM WARNINGS and WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT .. Freezing rain is also expected to be very major concern with this storm system, with a threat extending from the mid-Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. Farther South, fire weather dangers will be ELEVATED due to gusty winds and low relative humidity behind a developing dryline as I mentioned above east of the Southern and Central Rockies ... Please practice FIRE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS and read up on the latest forecast and restrictions in your region. Finally, a cold frontal boundary will proceed south from Canada this weekend bringing another shot of cold air to the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic .. Several locations will have temperatures 10 to as much as 25 degrees below mid-March standards .. Any additional snowfall accumulations will be light ... Winds will also remain gusty which will continue to keep wind chills a factor, especially across northern New England through the weekend. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has NO SEVERE WEATHER expected, however, some general storms are a potential from western Oregon, northern California, across the Southern Rockies, and the Texas South Plains during the afternoon and early evening ... Then, thunderstorms will develop tonight across the Central Plains to the lower Missouri Valley, and across southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi valley. FRIDAY, MARCH 16th: We do have a severe weather event to be noted for Friday afternoon and evening with a surface low and associated cold front swinging through the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Gulf Coast ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following areas: SLIGHT RISK is in effect for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley where some strong to severe storms are capable of producing LARGE TO SEVERE SIZED HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, and POSSIBLE A FEW TORNADOES ... MARGINAL RISK is in effect from Louisiana Coastal Region to Eastern Kanasas for primarily HAIL and WIND ... Be on alert! More details to come in the later updates ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the inital setup across the Nation featuring an "OMEGA BLOCK" with a ridge over the center of the Nation while closed low pressure are centered over the Eastern and Western portions of the Nation ... Ultimately, this particular regime will maintain colder than average readings over the eastern half of the Nation .. In particular, expect temperatures up to 20 degrees below mid March standards across the Western states as well as over the northern-central to northeastern portions of the Nation .. A well defined west-east oriented stationary frontal boundary will be the seperation of 70s and 80s over the Southern Plains, while 30s and 40s prevail to the north .. Generally speaking, temperatures will be up to 25 degrees above mid March standards in places like Oklahoma and Kansas. With the deep upper-level trough in place across the West Coast, multiple embedded impulses will be the focus for persistent, organized precipitation .. While wet weather is anticipated over a vast majority of the western states, the best region for rainfall will be across the higher terrain of northern California and western Oregon .. This is where some of the orographic lift with the upper-level trough ... Expecting several inches of precipitation over the Sierra Nevada ranges, primarily snowfall given the cold air aloft .. At this point, 2 to 3 feet of snowfall is appearing likely in isolated locations approaching 4 feet ... While other ranges surrounding the Sierra Nevada will see around 12 to 18 inches. As the upper-level trough across the western states proceeds inland, one disturbance is forecast to intensify over the central high Plains for this evening ... Strong lift underneath the system will combined with the favorably easterly upslope flow to produce heavy snowfall anywhere from southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming into sections of western South Dakota and northwestern Nebraska .. Amounts over a foot are likely across the Black Hills ... An additional threat of ice as mild air emanating from the Gulf of Mexico interacts with a sub-freezing surface layer .. This will be confined to locations north of the stalled frontal boundary stretching from the central Plains into the Tennessee Valley .. This places significant icing potential anywhere along and north of Interstate 70 across Nebraska and South Dakota into a large chunk of the middle Mississippi Valley. Finally, given the intensification forecast over the central Plains late tonight, a strengthening pressure gradient will unfold at the surface .. Dry, gusty winds are likely across the southern Rockies eastward into the central/southern Plains which will enhance the risk for wildfires .. RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect. HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has some possible scattered thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening across mainly Utah and eastern Nevada and portions of western Wyoming and Colorado ... The Storm Prediction Center has a MARGINAL RISK for some severe storms capable of producing LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAIL over this region .. Be on alert! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the cold weather and snow showers persisting across the Northeast through Thursday in the wake of the big nor'easter that dump a foot or more of snowfall ... Accumulating snowfall is likely from the central Appalachians to Maine, and some lake enhanced snowfall is also possible around the Great Lakes ... Afternoon high temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s for the majority of the Eastern portions of the Nation which is quite below normal for mid March standards ... A developing storm system is proceeding across the Rockies for today and is expected to emerge over the Plains by the end of the week .. Widespread rainfall and higher elevation snowfall is likely for the majority of the Western portions of the Nation in association with this frontal boundary and the accompanying upper-level trough ... Heavy snowfall is expected for the Sierra Nevada range, with amounts in excess of two feet possible for some of the higher ridges .. California will also be receiving some beneficial and much needed rainfall after a very dry February ... Finally, once this storm system reaches the Plains by Thursday PM, a swath of moderate to heavy snowfall is a possibility north of the surface low from eastern Wyoming to South Dakota and Nebraska .. Some mixed precipitation is also a possibility in portions of Nebraska and Iowa ... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage by Friday AM from central Gulf Coastal region to Missouri as Gulf of Mexico moisture surges northward ahead of the cold frontal boundary ... HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has NO SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED anywhere across the Lower 48 .. Some isolated weak thunderstorms are a possibility for today from Central to Northern California into the Great Basin ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the powerful nor'easter expecting to hammer New England with heavy snowfall and blizzard-like conditions near the coastal areas ... As the storm center proceeds to the Southeast of New England, the potential exists for mesoscale heavy snow bands to form near the coastal regions, leading to bursts of heavy snow (2 - 3" an hour rates) and very gusty winds ... Coastal flooding is also likely around high tide .. A renewed surge of Canadian, cold air will then become entrenched over the Eastern half of the Nation in the wake of the storm, leading to unseasonably cold temperatures for March to continue through the middle of the week ahead, with Florida also feeling the effects of the colder temperatures ... With a blocking pattern remaining in place across the higher latitudes, the nor'easter is expected to directly affect Nova Scotia for Wednesday and then weaken ... This will keep the snowfall in place over the majority of New England on Wednesday near a trough of low pressure. The Central portions of the Nation will be relatively mild and mostly sunny through the middle of the week thanks to a large surface high pressure ridge building .. The Western portions of the Nation will remain increasingly wet/snowy with unsettled pattern with a frontal system approaching and proceeding inland ... The greatest concentration of rainfall will be focused on the favored terrain of Central and Northern California, with some locations forecast to receive 2 to as much as 4" of rainfall through Wednesday AM ... Heavy snowfall is expected across the higher mountainous terrain, with the greatest amounts likely in the Sierra Nevada mountains. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has some severe weather across portions of Southern Florida with the persisting shortwave trough quickly proceeding southeastward with the cold frontal boundary across Flroida .. Moist and sufficiently unstable air is ahead of the front to support thunderstorms ... A few storms are possible for late this morning through the afternoon with local threat of MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAIL primarily there ... The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL RISK for SOUTHERN FLORIDA FOR TODAY ... Be on alert! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the rapidly developing nor'easter as the main weather headline for the early part of the new week over the Western Atlantic ... This is in response to a strong, upper-level disturbance crossing the Southeastern states for today, and widespread rain showers is expected from Florida to central Virginia .. Moderate to heavy snowfall expected for West Virginia and the mountains of Virginia where WINTER STORM WARNINGS are in effect .. After the precipitation ends in the Mid-Atlantic for tonight, attention turns to New England as the third nor'easter in two weeks is expected to bring another round of significant snows from Connecticut to Maine, with some locations getting in excess of a foot or more .. Portions of Upstate New York are also likely to receive heavy snowfall through the mid week .. With the forecast trajectory of the system expected to be further southeast than the last two events, the highest winds and waves will remain relatively over the open offshore waters of the Atlantic, good news there ... The Central portions of the Nation should be relatively mild and mostly sunny over the next few days as a high pressure ridge builds .. The Western portions of the Nation will be increasingly wet/snowy and unsettled as a frontal system approaches and proceeds inland ... The greatest rainfall should be focused on the favored terrain of Central and Northern California, with some locations forecast to receive two to as much as four inches locally through Wednesday AM ... Heavy snowfall is expected across the highest mountain terrains, with the greatest amounts likely for the Sierra Nevada mountains ... HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has some severe weather to be concerned about as a progressive shortwave trough continues to move southeastward from the Central Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley by this evening, merging with a broader, southern stream jet over the Gulf of Mexico .. This will maintain a strong southwesterly flow with cooler temperatures aloft, that will set the stage for convective development along a cold frontal boundary extending from a weak low in Central Mississippi southwestward to Central Texas then proceeding eastward to Central Alabama and Southeastern Louisiana by tonight on the forecast models ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms across the majority of Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, and Southwestern Alabama for mainly MARGINAL HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS are the main threat .. Very heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning will be a common threat from these storms ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms persist for the majority of the Central Gulf Coastal States .. Be on the alert! Have multiple sources to receive your latest statements, forecasts, and alerts ... Follow the National Weather Service for all the details. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has an evolving storm system over the South-Central portions of the Nation that will become the main feature of today's outlook ... A surface low over the Deep South is forecast to become better organized as a shortwave disturbance approaches from the Western High Plains .. Showers and thunderstorms will be expected widespread across the majority of the Southeastern states as deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico surges northward and expected to interact with a warm frontal boundary. Some locations from Mississippi to Southern Georgia could get an inch or more of rainfall through Monday. By Monday AM, a new surface low is forecast to develop near the Southeast coastal regions and become a nor'easter as it intensifies and proceeds towards the northeast ... There is some uncertainities on the future track of this nor'easter and thus the direct impacts it will have from the Mid-Atlantic to New England ... The best bet for accumulating snowfall will be for the Central and Southern Appalachians and interior portions of New England .. If this nor'easter tracks closer to the coastal regions, then high winds and coastal flooding will become a real issue. Stay Tuned! HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
The Storm Prediction Center has placed a SLIGHT and MARGINAL RISK in place ... The shortwave trough is digging southeastward from the Northern Rockies to the eastern Oklahoma ... We have a strong mid level northwesterly flow from the Gulf of Mexico that will fuel up some convective activity with a weak surface low proceeding across northwestern Texas to southern Louisiana to southwestern Georgia as well ... The strong low-level warm air advection ahead of the frontal boundary will support for robust thunderstorms and a few isolated surface-based supercells capable of rotation for a few tornadoes ... ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS and SOME HAIL is possible .. SLIGHT RISK is in place for severe storms across portions of Eastern Oklahoma to portions of Central/Western Mississippi ... MARGINAL RISK is in place for severe storms across the areas SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and extending to Southern Louisiana and portions of Western Alabama ... Be sure to remain on alert and have multiple sources to receive your latest forecast, statements, and alerts .. A NOAA WEATHER RADIO is your best bet for protection .. Exercise SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS when WATCHES are issued ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has an evolving storm system over the South Central poritons of the Nation for the weekend that will become the main weather feature for the next few days ... A surface low forming over Texas is forecast to become a better-organized system as a shortwave disturbance approaches from the Western High Plains ... Showers and thunderstorms expected to become widespread ahead of the low as deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico surges on northward and interacts with the warm frontal boundary .. Some locations near Interstate 20 will see up to three inches of rainfall by the end of the weekend, and localized FLASH FLOODING is a possibility where thunderstorm activity become training and persistent ... This low pressure system is expected to reach the Southeast Coastal Regions by Monday AM and resulting in widespread rain showers from Northern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Regions, and snowfall farther inland near the Appalachians ... A weakening storm system approaching California for today is expected to bring widespread rain showers and mountain snowfall to the state through tomorrow morning ,with the greatest concentration of the rainfall between San Diego and San Francisco .. Snow showers are expected from the northern Plains to the Midwest through tonight in association with the upper-level shortwave proceeding through ... HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED; however, we do have an opportunity for a few garden variety thunderstorms in the forecast across Texas Gulf Coastal Region to the middle Mississippi Valley .. While a strong storm or two is possible, no organized severe weather expected ... SATURDAY'S FORECAST: The Storm Prediction Center has placed a SLIGHT and MARGINAL RISK in place ... The shortwave trough is digging southeastward from the Northern Rockies to the eastern Oklahoma ... We have a strong mid level northwesterly flow from the Gulf of Mexico that will fuel up some convective activity with a weak surface low proceeding across northwestern Texas to southern Louisiana to southwestern Georgia as well ... The strong low-level warm air advection ahead of the frontal boundary will support for robust thunderstorms and a few isolated surface-based supercells capable of rotation for a few tornadoes ... ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS and SOME HAIL is possible .. SLIGHT RISK for storms for Saturday is expected from the ARKLATEX to the Florida Panhandle MARGINAL RISK for storms for Saturday is expected from Southeastern Oklahoma to the central Gulf Coastal Region ... Be sure to remain on alert and have multiple sources to receive your latest forecast, statements, and alerts .. A NOAA WEATHER RADIO is your best bet for protection .. Exercise SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS when WATCHES are issued ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has colder than normal temperatures in the forecast to continue going into the upcoming weekend across the majority of the Eastern portions of the Nation in the wake of the strong nor'easter that recently hammered the majority of the Northeast .. A cold upper-level low over the Northeast will provide for scattered to numerous snow showers from the Great Lakes to Main for today along with breezy conditions, making it feel more like January ... Less in the way of snow is expected by Saturday as this upper-level low proceed offshore and moisture decreases ... A weakening storm system approaching California on Saturday is expected to bring some widespread rainfall and mountain snowfall to the state through Sunday morning, with the greatest concentration of rainfall totals expected between Los Angeles and San Francisco .. Rainfall and higher elevation snowfall is likely from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies with the passage of the cold frontal boundary for today ... Finally, by Saturday AM, a new surface low pressure is forecast to develop over the Southern Plains and become better organized as it proceeds across the Deep South for tomorrow night .. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be widespread ahead of the low as deep moisture returns from the Gulf of Mexico and surges northward and interacts with a warm frontal boundary .. Some areas near Interstate 20 could see 1 to as much as 3 inches of rainfall by the end of the weekend and localized flooding is possible where thunderstorms activity becomes persistent ... HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ... NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE LOWER 48 ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a strong nor'easter impacting New England and will begin to lift across the Gulf of Maine for today and then gradually weaken tonight and Friday as the center of low pressure then proceeds insland across interior sections of Maine .. Additional heavy snowfall accumulations are expected across interior portions of the Northeast, and especially northern New England with accumulations of 12 - 18 inches expected ... Some accumulating snowfall will be expected as well around the Lower Great Lakes region and central Appalachians as additional energy aloft drops down to the southeast across the region .. Meanwhile, the remainder of the Eastern portions of the Nation will be generally cold through the remainder of the week as a well-defined upper-level trough settles on southeastward allowing for high temperatures to be as much as 20 degrees BELOW early March standards ... Over the Western portions of the Nation, multiple surface waves of low pressure and supporting energy aloft will allow for a broad area of precipitation over the next couple of days in the forecasat .. Rainfall will continue to spread across the Pacific Northwest and northern California for today's outlook as a cold frontal boundary proceeds inland ... This will allow for the Great Basin to see unsettled weather arriving with a combination of rainfall and snowfall by tonight and continuing into Friday ... Heavy snowfall will occur over the higher elevations, including the Cascades and the northern Rockies .. Snowfall accumulations as much as 1 to 2 feet can be expected through Friday .. Rainfall totals in the lower elevations of the interior will be generally on the light side, but the coastal ranges of Washington, Oregon, and far northern California are looking at up to 2 inches of rainfall ... Temperatures across the West will be generally ABOVE NORMAL for early March standards given the influx of Pacific air across the region ... Finally, the remainder of the Nation is expected to remain dry and relatively mild for early March standards with temperatures generally above normal .. This will especially be the case across the central and southern High Plains where temperatures will be as much as 25 degrees above early March standards .. The dry conditions across this region and warm temperatures will combine with low relative humidities to also support some concerning matters with wildfire activity ... HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED, however, isolated thunderstorms of the garden variety is expected across the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, while lightning strikes cannot be ruled out across portions of the Northeast due to the Nor'easter ... Be on Alert! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a surface low pressure and associated frontal boundary system is quickly transitioning into a nor'easter and will spread snowfall to the majority of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for today through the remainder of the week ahead ... Numerous WINTER STORM WARNINGS and WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast ... The storm is expected to proceed offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula northward while paralleling the Northeast Coastal Regions .. By Thursday PM, snowfall accumulations could easily surpass 1 foot for areas W of the I-95 corridor .. The major metro areas will be on the gradient in between substantial snowfall totals and light snowfall totals, so there is some uncertainties in how much snowfall will be in the areas like New York City, Philadelphia, Boston, and Baltimore-Washington ... Snowfall will presist over the Great Lakes Region over the next couple of days as low pressure hangs around -- with an additional snowfall accumulations in the range of 6 - 8" possible ... For the Southeast, showers and thunderstorms are expected for portions of central and southern Florida today as the cold frontal boundary proceeds southward. Across the Western areas of the Nation, conditions will generally be dry through this afternoon before low pressure approaches the coastal regions ... Rainfall and mountain snowfall will spread into northern California and the Pacific Northwest this evening and into the Northern Rockies on Thursday ... Rain and snowfall totals will be fairly light for this system through Thursday ... HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook showing some thunderstorms forming along and ahead of a cold frontal boundary that will pose a MARGINAL RISK over sections of Coastal Florida Panhandle for today and west-central Florida for tonight .. Damaging Winds and a weak, brief spin-up tornado or two could become a possibility .. Be sure to remain on alert for the threats ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a widespread heavy snow event in the forecast from the Northern High Plains, the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region and the Northeast as an occluded surface frontal boundary proceeds eastward .. Along and ahead of the trailing cold frontal boundary, showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Western Gulf states northward to the southern Ohio Valley and eastward into the Carolinas and Southeast .. A wave along this frontal boundary will quickly transition this system into a nor'easter, which will bring additionally six to as much as ten inches of snowfall west of the major metro regions, with higher amounts locally possible, to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast for Wednesday and Thursday .. Lighter snowfall is forecast for the Central Appalachians and back into the Northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region ... The heavy snowfall and strong winds have created blizzard conditions yesterday across portions of the Northern Plains that have persist through the overnight hours .. Conditions will begin to improve this morning/afternoon from west to east as the frontal boundary proceeds eastward ... BLIZZARD WARNINGS, WINTER STORM WARNINGS and WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect from the Northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley ... Finally, behind the cold frontal boundary, strong winds and drier air will filter into the Central portions of the Nation .. This will lead to critical fire danger for eastern Colorado through the majority of Kansas and Oklahoma as well as the Texas Panhandle through tonight, and an ELEVATED to CRITICAL risk will remain through Wednesday ... RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect and HIGH WIND WARNINGS are in effect further north across western South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas, as well as eastern Wyoming and Colorado ... Southwestern California is also forecast to expect ELEVATED fire conditions for today, as the Western areas of the Nation is generally expected to remain dry over the next couple of days before low pressure approaches Wednesday PM ... Rainfall will be possible from central California coastal region northward to the Pacific Northwest ... HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer |