SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is a possibility for today's forecast as a small region of the Central High Plains has been issued a MARGINAL RISK for a few strong to possibly a couple marginal severe cells containing some STRONG GUSTY WINDS and SMALL / LARGE HAIL .. Be on alert! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: EXTRATROPICAL MARIA ... MARIA has become extratropical .. expected to become a fully extratropical storm by later today into tonight ... LOCATION: 39.6N 50.5W 505 MILES SSE of CAPE RACE, NEWFOUNDLAND, CANADA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 32 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 MB or 29.18" MARIA is moving towards the east-northeast at 32 mph and this heading will continue with more increasing speed through early Monday ... Max Sustained Winds of 60 mph with higher gusts ... MARIA is extratropical and will go under a full transition by tonight .. Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 230 miles from the center of circulation ... SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the majority of the Eastern Seaboard of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda ... These swells are accompanied by LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. BE AWARE and PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... POST TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE (FINAL FORECAST) LEE has gone POST TROPICAL over the North Atlantic ... LOCATION: 46.7N 35.6W 745 MILES NNW of THE AZORES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 51 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 MB or 29.47" LEE is currently moving NE at 51 mph and even faster northeasterly motion expected later today before Lee finally dissipate completely ... Max Sustained Winds of 50 mph with higher gusts .. Expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure today ... TROPICAL STORM FORCED winds extend outward up to 150 miles from the center ... MESSAGE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER on the DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA .... INVEST 99L The combination of a broad trough of low pressure over Florida and an upper-level low over the Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across much of the Florida peninsula and the adjacent waters. Environmental conditions have become less conducive for development and the chance of tropical cyclone formation has decreased. Nevertheless, locally heavy rainfall will likely continue over portions of western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula during the next several days while the system moves slowly northward and then westward near northern Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. TROPICAL WAVE in the EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA: A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and showers extending from the eastern Caribbean Sea northeastward across the Lesser Antilles to the nearby Atlantic waters. Environmental conditions have become unfavorable for development and tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days bringing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles during the next several days. A Flash Flood Watch in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through late Sunday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Forecaster Avila NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is a deep layer of moisture streaming and pooling into the Southwest and Southern Rockies as it has been all week long bringing copious amounts of rainfall to South Texas with the flooding situation ... We will continue to see periodic showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend with the pattern in place ... The higher amounts are forecast for the Southern Rockies with embedded heavier rainfall expected and that will INDUCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH for Northern New Mexico through tomorrow night ... Periods of heavy rainfall is also in the forecast for portions of South Florida with a tropical upper level low and trough in place with INVEST 99L and now spreading into the Gulf of Mexico with this upper level low slowly progressing eastward across the state ... This surface trough intacted is helping to focus more thunderstorms in the state as the deep moisture transport continues ... This has a 20% lower odds of further development into a tropical cyclone as conditions are becoming less likely in the region .... Finally, precipitation axis is spreading across the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West for the weekend outlook ... This is spreading now later in the weekend into early next week for the Plains and Upper Midwest as a cold frontal boundary is progressing through ... Rain showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for development across the Plains for tomorrow AM and then moving into the Upper Midwest for Monday and the Middle Mississippi Valley ... In the colder sector, expecting higher elevation snowfall to materialize in the Northern Rockies for now through Monday AM ... Have a great SATURDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer
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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is a possiblity in today's forecast with a MARGINAL RISK in place across the Southeastern Shores of Lake Erie in Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania ... Portions of Western New Mexico and Southeastern Arizona where WIND and HAIL are the main threats in any strong to marginally severe cellular thunderstorm .. Be on Alert! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM MARIA ... MARIA is SLIGHTLY WEAKER and MOVING FASTER to the East .... LOCATION: 37.2N 63.3W 350 MILES NNE of BERMUDA 510 MILES S of HALIFAX, NOVA SCOTIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: E @ 21 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 MB or 29.15" MARIA is moving towards the east at 21 mph and and a turn towards the east-northeast with an even faster speed is expected in the forecast for later today, MARIA will continue to accelerate towards the North Atlantic Ocean through Sunday's outlook ... Max Sustained Winds of 60 mph with higher gusts ... MARIA will have little change in strength in the next 48 hours, hoever, MARIA is expected to go extratropical LOW by Saturday evening's outlook .... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 255 miles from the center of circulation ... SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the majority of the Eastern Seaboard of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda ... These swells are accompanied by LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. BE AWARE and PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LEE: LEE is a LITTLE WEAKER while moving FASTER towards the Northeast and expected to DISSIPATE over the northern Atlantic on Saturday .... LOCATION: 38.3N 52.4W 810 MILES NE of BERMUDA 1375 MILES W of THE AZORES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 25 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 MB or 29.15" LEE is currently moving northeast at 25 mph and an acceleration towards the northeast is expected through Saturday ... Max Sustained Winds of 75 mph with higher gusts .. Additional weakening is expected and will become a TROPICAL STORM later today and then dissipate by Saturday ... Lee is a tiny hurricane .. HURRICANE FORCED winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center, while TROPICAL STORM FORCED winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center ... MESSAGE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER on a couple of DISTURBANCES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA .... A broad trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level low is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and showers. This activity extends from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across western Cuba to the southern Florida peninsula. This trough has moved slowly westward since yesterday, and a weak low is now likely to form from this system near the west coast of Florida during the weekend. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development of the low before the upper-level winds become less favorable early next week. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave is producing cloudiness and showers over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although there are no signs of organization and surface pressures are not falling at this time, conditions could become a little more favorable for some development next week while the system moves toward the west-northwest. This system is expected to bring locally heavy rains over the northern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is showing some numerous to widespread rain showers and storms in the forecast for the Southwest into the Southern Rockies for the weekend forecast as ample moisture continue to flow along the stalled frontal boundary in the region near the Mexican Plateau ... Heavier amounts of precipitation is in the forecast for the higher terrain of Central New Mexico for today ... Then shifting the axis into Western Colorado and Wyoming with higher elevation snowfall expected there ... MARGINAL RISK for excessive rainfall is in the forecast for South Texas into New Mexico where flash flooding is a good possibility ... So be on alert! Coverage of lower elevation rainfall and mountain snowfall will begin to increase in frequency across the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West for the weekend with a cold frontal boundary sweeping through with heavy snowfall in the forecast for the weekend across the highest elevations of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming ... Areal coverage of rain showers and storms for Southern Florida associated with INVEST 99L is expected in the next few days with the upper level low over Eastern Gulf of Mexico tracking slowly over Southern Florida ... This is one to watch closely as a 40% odds favor of tropical development ... Rainfall is expected to increase the flooding risk in the region ... Cooler temperatures are in the forecast for the Eastern portions of the Nation after record breaking heat in the wake of a strong cold frontal boundary ... This colder airmass with a reinforcing cold front will continue to sink into Mexico and the Southeast, keeping the majority in an Autumn like feel ... Relief to many! Have a great FRIDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is a NOT a factor in today's forecast ... A few thunderstorms are possible in the Great Lakes, Florida Peninsula, Southern Rockies into the Desert Southwest, and portions of Central and Southern Texas with the tropical moisture pooling .... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM MARIA ... MARIA is weakening as a TROPICAL STORM ... SLOW WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES ... LOCATION: 36.8N 71.0W 275 MILES ENE of CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA 470 MILES NW of BERMUDA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 8 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 MB or 29.00" MARIA is moving towards the east-northeast at 8 mph and expected to accelerate eastward through tonight's outlook ... MARIA will then turn back towards the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed by Friday's outlook ... MARIA expected to move away from the United States' Eastern Seaboard and pass well SOUTH of Atlantic Canada during the next 48 hours ... Max Sustained Winds of 70 mph with higher gusts ... MARIA will have little change in strength in the next 48 hours .... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 240 miles from the center of circulation ... SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the majority of the Eastern Seaboard of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda ... These swells are accompanied by LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. BE AWARE and PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LEE: LEE is showing an opportunity to continue strengthening for today ... LOCATION: 32.5N 57.2W 445 MILES E of BERMUDA 1735 MILES W of THE AZORES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 MB or 28.53" LEE is currently moving west-northwest at 9 mph ... A faster motion towards the north-northeast or northeast expected later today .... Max Sustained Winds of 110 mph with higher gusts .. Gradual weakening is expected in the forecast for the next 48 hours ... Lee is a tiny hurricane .. HURRICANE FORCED winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center, while TROPICAL STORM FORCED winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center ... MESSAGE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER on the DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA .... A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba to the Bahamas is associated with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. A weak area of low pressure is likely to form from this weather system while it moves northward across Cuba and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for development before upper-level winds become less favorable early next week. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Stewart NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is a copious amount of moisture over the Southern Plains and combining with the presence of a stationary frontal boundary leading to plenty of moderate to heavy rainfall in the forecast ... The highest rainfall forecast over the border regions of Mexico into South Central Texas where additional two inches of rainfall is in the forecast there ... Northern New Mexico is forecast for around one to maybe in a local aspect of two inches possible ... Rainfall is expected to continue through the end of the week ahead .... Some snow showers with the cooler temperatures is in the forecast for the Central Rockies where a few inches could occur there ... The cold frontal boundary sweeping across the Eastern portions of the Nation to the Deep South is finally bringing some relief to the record breaking heat ... The majority of the regions will remain dry with the front ... However, the bigger story is the relief in the way of cooler and less humid air in the wake ... That is great news for you folks ... Another low pressure storm system is approaching the Great Lakes and should bring some showers to the region and into the Lower Great Lakes to end the work week ... Otherwise, the weather pattern is persisting to be very quiet for the majority of the Nation ... Have a great THURSDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is a possibility for this afternoon and evening across portions of Northern New England ... Portions of eastern Arizona to southwestern New Mexico ... These storms are strong to marginally severe with possible WIND, HAIL, and a couple BRIEF TORNADOES .. Be aware and be on alert! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM MARIA ... MARIA is crawling northward off the North Carolina Outer Banks .... LOCATION: 35.4N 72.8W 155 MILES SE of CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 7 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 MB or 28.88" SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Hatteras A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to west of Ocracoke Inlet * North of Cape Hatteras to Duck MARIA is moving towards the north at 7 mph and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected for later today, followed by acceleration towards the east-northeast on Thursday ... The forecast track of MARIA will begin to move slowly away from the coastal regions of North Carolina for today and tonight's forecast ... Max Sustained Winds of 70 mph with higher gusts ... MARIA is currently a TROPICAL STORM .. Some gradual weakening is expected in the next 48 hours ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 230 miles from the center of circulation ... WIND FORECAST: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the WARNING region through today ... STORM SURGE FORECAST: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. RAINFALL FORECAST: Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of less than 1 inch over the Outer Banks of North Carolina and far southeastern Virginia through Wednesday. SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the majority of the Eastern Seaboard of the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands ... These swells are accompanied by LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. BE AWARE and PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LEE: LEE is showing an opportunity to continue strengthening for today ... LOCATION: 30.2N 56.3W 520 MILES ESE of BERMUDA 1750 MILES W of THE AZORES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 MB or 28.68" LEE is currently moving west-northwest at 9 mph ... Expected to turn northwestward on Wednesday and then northward on Thursday .. Max Sustained Winds of 110 mph with higher gusts .. Some strengthening is expected in the next 24 hours or so ... Could become a major hurricane later today before the weakening trend forecast to begin Thursday ... Lee is a tiny hurricane .. HURRICANE FORCED winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, while TROPICAL STORM FORCED winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is heavy rainfall in the forecast for Central and Western Texas where a deep moisture pool is streaming from former Tropical Storm Pilar contributing to a heavier amount of rainfall up to 3 inches through Thursday PM ... A frontal boundary is draped across this region is a focal mechanism for thunderstorms that could train the region that will bring some flash flooding possibilities to the region, be aware of this ... The Eastern Seaboard states will have one more day of near record or record breaking heat with highs in the 80s to lower 90s in majority of areas ... A strong cold frontal boundary is forecast to proceed eastward and will reach the Eastern Seaboard by tomorrow afternoon and the Gulf Coast by Friday ... In the wake of the front, more refreshing air mass will replace the summerlike conditions with more of a normal of autumn like feel ... Have a great WEDNESDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is a possibility for this afternoon and evening across portions of Western Texas and Southern New Mexico where a few strong to marginally severe cells are capable of producing a few hail and gusty winds ... A few regular storms along the Plains into the Central Mississippi Valley into the Western Great Lakes ... A few storms are possible over the Central Appalachians, Northern New England, and along the Gulf Coast to Florida ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE MARIA ... MARIA is continuing to slowly move northbound with LARGE SWELLS up and down the EASTERN SEABOARD ... INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINAS and MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGIONS NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF MARIA ... She is about to weaken to a TROPICAL STORM soon ... LOCATION: 33.3N 73.1W 190 MILES SE of CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 7 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 MB or 28.65" SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck MARIA is moving towards the north at 7 mph and this general motion will continue through tonight's forecast with decreasing speed .. A turn to the north-northeast is expected for Wednesday's forecast ... On the track of MARIA, the center will pass WELL EAST of the coast of North Carolina in the next 48 hours ... Max Sustained Winds of 75 mph with higher gusts ... MARIA is currently a CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ... Gradual weakening is expected and becoming a TROPICAL STORM in the next 12 to 24 hours .. Hurricane forced winds extend outwards up to 105 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 240 miles from the center of circulation ... WIND FORECAST: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the WARNING region by later today.. STORM SURGE FORECAST: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. RAINFALL FORECAST: Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through Wednesday. SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. They are increasing in the Southeastern Coastal Regions of the United States and Bermuda currently ... These swells are accompanied by LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. BE AWARE and PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LEE: LEE is still strengthening and moving a little faster westward in motion ... LOCATION: 30.0N 52.5W 745 MILES E of BERMUDA 1555 MILES WSW of THE AZORES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 10 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 MB or 28.85" LEE is currently moving north at 10 mph and a turn to the west-northwest is expected with a decrease in foreward speed by early Wednesday and then following to turn northwest by Wednesday evening's forecast ... LEE is then expected to turn northward and gradually increase the speed on Thursday Max Sustained Winds of 100 mph with higher gusts .. Some strengthening is expected in the next 24 hours or so ... A gradual weakening trend begins on Wednesday ... Lee is a tiny hurricane .. HURRICANE FORCED winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center, while TROPICAL STORM FORCED winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is a deep upper level trough across the West-Central portions of the Nation bringing with it, below normal temperatures is consisting through the mid week for the majority of the Nation before a moderating trend begins with drier conditions later in the week ... The coverage of snow showers in the Rockies has begun to tamper off and dissipate .. The Eastern areas of the Nation will have warmer than normal temperatures for a couple more days before the upper level ridge move on eastward ... A strong, slow moving cold frontal boundary with multiple waves of low pressure riding the frong will develop and make cooler and drier conditions prevailing behind it from the Upper Great Lakes to Texas by the end of the week ... Heavy rainfall is in the foreacst for Central and Western TExas where deep moisture streaming from former Tropical Storm Pilar from the Eastern Pacific contributing ... Up to 4" of rainfall between now through Wednesday PM is a possibility ... Flash flooding is very likely especiall where storms track over the same region repeatedly, keep this in mind ... Have a great TUESDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is threatening to cause a few problems in the Upper Midwest, especially in portions of Northern Minnesota where an ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS and a POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO or TWO could become an issue between the hours of 3 to 8 PM CDT ... Be sure to be on alert and listen to warnings when issued ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: MAIN STORY OF THE DAY: CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE MARIA ... MARIA is showing some slightly weaker trends according to the NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS that flew into her this morning ... INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINAS and MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGIONS NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF MARIA ... LOCATION: 27.9N 72.7W 290 MILES ENE of GREAT ABACO ISLAND 530 MILES SSE of CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 MB or 28.00" MARIA is moving towards the north at 9 mph and this general motion will continue through Monday's forecast .. The forecast track of MARIA will bring her well EAST of the United States Southeastern Coastal Regions for the next 48 hours ... Max Sustained Winds of 110 mph with higher gusts ... MARIA is currently a CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ... Some fluctuations in her intensity is expected in the next 24 to 48 hours ... Hurricane forced winds extend outwards up to 60 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 240 miles from the center of circulation ... SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. They are increasing in the Southeastern Coastal Regions of the United States and Bermuda currently ... These swells are accompanied by LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. BE AWARE and PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LEE: LEE is continuing to RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ... LOCATION: 31.8N 50.1W 860 MILES E of BERMUDA 1370 MILES W of THE AZORES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: S @ 1 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 MB or 29.03" LEE is currently drifting very slowly southward at 1 MPH and this will continue in a southeastly motion later today ... Max Sustained Winds of 85 mph with higher gusts .. Additional strengthening expected in the 36 to 48 hours and could become a MAJOR HURRICANE on Monday ... Lee is a small hurricane .. HURRICANE FORCED winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center, while TROPICAL STORM FORCED winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center ... TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ..... TROPICAL STORM PILAR: PILAR is bringing heavy rainfall to portions of Southwestern Mexico ... LOCATION: 19.5N 105.7W 100 MILES WNW of MANZANILLO MEXICO 60 MILES S of CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS; 45 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 6 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 MB or 29.59" SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to El Roblito, including the Islas Marias PILAR is moving NNW at 6 mph and a north-northwest to northwest track is expected in the next 48 hours ... The track of PILAR will move near or just to the west of the coast of Jalisco for today and early Monday's outlook ... Max sustained winds of 45 mph with higher gusts and some additional strengthening is possible before PILAR nears the coast of Mexico later today or Monday ... TROPICAL STORM FORCED winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center ... RAINFALL FORECAST: PILAR is expected to bring a forecast total rainfall accumulation of 3 to 7 inches with a maximum local isolated amount up to 15 inches in the western portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and Southern Sinaloa through Monday Night ... This rainfall could cause life threatening flash flooding and mudslides ... WIND FORECAST: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Southern portions of the warning regions at this time .. Will gradually spread northward along the Mexican coastal regions for today through Monday's outlook .... A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Pacific. Some gradual development of this system is possible before it moves inland over Central America in a few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. FORECASTER BROWN NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the majority of the Western areas of the Nation under a deep, upper level trough digging and bringing some really chilly air to the majority of the region .. A few areas in the Intermountain West will have lingering snow showers at the highest elevations into the evening hours .. Otherwise, looking at drier conditions for the Valleys and lower terrain ... At the leading edge of this trough will be a slow moving and a very strong cold frontal boundary with multiple waves of low pressure developing along it from the Upper Great Lakes through the Southern Rockies ... The strong, upper level ridge responsible for the record breaking, late September heat wave across the Eastern half of the Nation will continue through mid week ... Temperatures will reach record high levels with some locations breaking 90 easy ... Widespread regions of temperatures running 20 to as much as 30 degrees above normal is expected making it feel like JULY in many locations ... The humidity is making this even more miserable ... PRACTICE HEAT PRECAUTIONS and FIRE SAFETY! Finally, that remnant low of JOSE is weakening and becoming the non issue finally, however the attention turns to MARIA bringing high surf and dangerous rip currents to the Southeast portions of the Nation ... Current indications of the track could come within 200 miles of the Outer Banks of North Carolina ... We could be seeing some very rough surf and conditions through mid to late week for the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic coastal regions ... Be aware, STAY OUT OF THE WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... Have a great SUNDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is threatening to cause a few problems in the Upper Midwest and portions of the High Plains for this afternoon and evening hours ... A MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the Upper Midwest to the Southern High Plains where some ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS and HAIL will become a possibility with a few strong to severe storms for mainly this afternoon to early evening hours ... Be on the alert for this ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: MAIN STORY OF THE DAY: MAJOR DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MARIA ... The warnings have finally discontinued for the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands as MARIA is pulling away going NNW .. HIGH SWELLS, HIGH WAVES, and VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS are increasing along portions of the Southeastern United States Coastal Regions ... BE ON ALERT, STAY OUT OF THE WATERS TIL FURTHER NOTICE!!! LOCATION: 24.8N 72.0W 165 MILES ENE of SAN SALVADOR 340 MILES E of NASSAU, BAHAMAS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 MB or 28.12" MARIA is moving towards the north-northwest at 9 mph and this general motion will continue through tonight's outlooks ... A turn towards the North will be expected on Sunday ... The forecast trajectory of MARIA should begin to pull away from the Bahamas into the open waters of the Western Atlantic for today's forecast ... Max Sustained Winds of 120 mph with higher gusts ... MARIA is currently a MAJOR CATEGORY 3 DANGEROUS HURRICANE ... Fluctuations in intensity will continue for the next 48 hours ... Hurricane forced winds extend outwards up to 60 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 195 miles from the center of circulation ... WIND FORECAST: Locally gusty winds will still be a possibility across the Central and Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands through tonight ... STORM SURGE FORECAST: Water levels are beginning to subside in the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands as MARIA begins to pull away from the region ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Computer models has indicated the following accumulations of rainfall in the regions of: additional rainfall accumulations of less than one inch, with isolated maximum amounts near 2 inches over Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas through Saturday. SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will begin to increase along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions... TROPICAL STORM LEE: This little stubborn tropical cyclone, yet tiny is still slowly moving Northward ... LOCATION: 31.9N 49.2W 910 MILES E of BERMUDA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 6 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1009 MB or 29.80" LEE is moving N @ 6 MPH and will make a turn for the East expecting later today and then another turn towards the East-Southeast for Sunday ... Max Sustained Winds of 40 mph with higher gusts and some strengthening is expected in the forecast for the next 48 hours .. LEE could be near HURRICANE strength by the end of the weekend ... LEE is a SMALL tropical storm .. Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outwards up to 35 miles from the center of circulation ... NO THREAT TO LAND is expected from LEE at any given time .... TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ..... INVEST 98E: A low pressure system located about 100 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become better defined overnight. Although associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for a tropical depression to form later today or on Sunday. Interests in Colima and Jalisco should monitor the progress of this system for any potential watches or warnings issued this weekend. Regardless of development, very heavy rains are expected over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. TROPICAL WAVE off MEXICO heading into CENTRAL AMERICA: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a broad area of low pressure located south of Guatemala over the far eastern Pacific. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next few days before the system moves over Central America early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Stewart NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is POST TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE making things difficult along the Eastern Seaboard, as I mentioned, with high surf and dangerous rip currents ... Be aware of this factor .. Strongly advised to stay away from piers, beaches, and the waters until further notice ... A crazy summer like heat air mass is affecting the Central and Eastern portions of the Nation through the weekend and early next week while a deep trough with very chilly air rest in the West with snowfall in the higher elevations of the Rockies ... This will continue to bring well below normal temperatures in the Intermountain West ... The temperatures in the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard will see 25 degrees above normal with 90s and higher in the Ohio Valley and Midwest ... A strong cold frontal boundary is coming through the Central Rockies to the Northern Plains, with little eastward progression for the next 48 hours .. Strong to severe storms are in the forecast to develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary across the Western High Plains into the Upper Midwest ... These storms will be capable of producing heavy to torrential rainfall with urbanize flooding possible ... Have a great SATURDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is threatening to cause a few problems in the Upper Midwest and portions of the Plains ... SLIGHT RISK been issued for this afternoon and evening across portions of Northwestern Minnesota ... MARGINAL RISK in place from the Upper Midwest to the Southern High Plains ... Forecast calling for ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL and WIND STORMS across the Upper Midwest to the Southern High Plains .. The most likely persistent region will be Northwestern Minnesota where a BRIEF TORNADO could also occur in the strongest cells .. Be sure to be on alert for today's outlook ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: JOSE has weakened to a post tropical cyclone and is bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of Southern New England ... LOCATION: 39.7N 69.0W 115 MILES SSE of NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 2 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 mB or 29.32" CURRENT ADVISORIES: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket JOSE is moving barely to the west at 2 mph ... Expected to meander well offshore of Southern New England for the next several days ... JOSE has max sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts .. Gradual weakening is in the forecast for the next 48 hours .. Tropical Storm forced winds extend outward up to 230 miles from the center of circulation ... Very large storm ... Sustained winds on Martha's Vineyard of around 40 mph with gusts to 50 been reported ... WINDS FORECAST: Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the warning area for today ... SURF FORECAST: SWELLS generated by JOSE are affecting Bermuda, and the majority of the Eastern Seaboard ... SWELLS WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF AND VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... RAINFALL FORECAST: JOSE is expected to bring forecast amounts of rainfall of 1 to as much as 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeastern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts .. Rainfall of 2-4 inches possible for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod through Wednesday .. This amount of rainfall could cause isolated flooding .... ISOLATED to 6 inches is possible as well .... MAIN STORY OF THE DAY: MAJOR DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MARIA ... MARIA is bringing HURRICANE CONDITIONS to the Turks and Caicos Islands at this time LOCATION: 21.9N 70.9W 30 MILES NNE of GRAND TURK ISLAND 465 MILES ESE of NASSAU, BAHAMAS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 7 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 959 MB or 28.32" CURRENT ADVISORIES: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Central Bahamas MARIA is moving towards the northwest at 7 mph and a motion towards the north-northwest is expected to happen later today and Saturday .. Maria's forecast track is bringing the eye nearing or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas for today's outlook ... Max Sustained Winds of 125 mph with higher gusts ... MARIA is currently a MAJOR CATEGORY 3 DANGEROUS HURRICANE ... A gradual weakening trend will begin in the next 48 hours .. Hurricane forced winds extend outwards up to 70 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center of circulation ... WIND FORECAST: Tropical storm conditions are still going in portions of the Dominican Republic and should subside in the next several hours ... Hurricane conditions are occuring in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas and will continue through tonight ... Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the Central Bahamas by tonight ... STORM SURGE FORECAST: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL FORECAST: Computer models has indicated the following accumulations of rainfall in the regions of: Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Puerto Rico...additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Eastern Dominican Republic...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm total amounts 20 inches Western Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6 inches Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches THROUGH SATURDAY ... Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas soon and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast today These swells are accompanied by LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. BE AWARE and PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ..... Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system near the southwest coast of Mexico continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days as the system moves slowly northwestward near the coast. In addition, very heavy rains are expected over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Blake NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is POST TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE making things difficult along the Eastern Seaboard, as I mentioned, with high surf and dangerous rip currents ... Be aware of this factor .. Strongly advised to stay away from piers, beaches, and the waters until further notice ... A crazy summer like heat air mass is affecting the Central and Eastern portions of the Nation through the weekend and early next week while a deep trough with very chilly air rest in the West with snowfall in the higher elevations of the Rockies ... This will continue to bring well below normal temperatures in the Intermountain West ... The temperatures in the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard will see 25 degrees above normal with 90s and higher in the Ohio Valley and Midwest ... A strong cold frontal boundary is coming through the Central Rockies to the Northern Plains, with little eastward progression for the next 48 hours .. Strong to severe storms are in the forecast to develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary across the Western High Plains into the Upper Midwest ... These storms will be capable of producing heavy to torrential rainfall with urbanize flooding possible ... Have a great FRIDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is threatening to cause a few problems in the Upper Midwest and portions of Northwestern Texas through Central Kansas where The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL RISK for a few isolated severe cells capable of ISOLATED LARGE HAIL in the Upper Midwest for tonight's forecast ... A few SEVERE WIND GUSTS are possible across the Southern TX Panhandle between the hours of 5 - 9 PM CDT ... Be on the alert for threatening weather conditions ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM JOSE is causing tropical storm conditions across portions of Southeastern New England region ... High surf and rip currents are continuing along the Eastern Seaboard ... PLEASE REMAIN OUT OF THE WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... LOCATION: 39.6N 68.1W 150 MILES SE of NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: STATIONARY MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 mB or 29.00" CURRENT ADVISORIES: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket JOSE is moving STATIONARY and this general motion is expected to continue mendering off the Southeastern New England region for the next several days .. JOSE has max sustained winds of 60 mph with higher gusts .. Gradual weakening is in the forecast for the next 48 hours .. JOSE is forecast to become a post tropical low system on Friday ... Tropical Storm forced winds extend outward up to 230 miles from the center of circulation ... WINDS FORECAST: Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the warning area for today ... SURF FORECAST: SWELLS generated by JOSE are affecting Bermuda, and the majority of the Eastern Seaboard ... SWELLS WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF AND VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... RAINFALL FORECAST: JOSE is expected to bring forecast amounts of rainfall of 1 to as much as 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeastern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts .. Rainfall of 2-4 inches possible for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod through Wednesday .. This amount of rainfall could cause isolated flooding .... REMNANT LOW of LEE: FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the remnants of Lee remain disorganized. Upper-level winds are expected to be unfavorable for significant development during the next few days. The low is forecast to move north-northwestward or northward over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Stewart MAIN STORY OF THE DAY: MAJOR DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MARIA ... MARIA'S large eye is passing offshore of the Northeastern Coastal Regions of the Dominican Republic ... LOCATION: 19.9N 68.7W 95 MILES NNW of PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 190 MILES SE of GRAND TURK ISLAND MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 9259 MB or 28.32" CURRENT ADVISORIES: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas MARIA is moving towards the northwest at 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight ... A turn towards the north-northwest is expected on Friday ... The forecast track of MARIA is expecting the eye to continue passing offshore of the Northeastern Dominican Republic and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas by tonight into Friday's forecast ... Max Sustained Winds of 115 mph with higher gusts ... MARIA is currently a MAJOR CATEGORY 3 DANGEROUS HURRICANE ... Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 to 48 hours ... Hurricane forced winds extend outwards up to 60 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 150 miles from the center of circulation ... WIND FORECAST: Strong gusty winds are still occurring over portions of Puerto Rico, but should continue to gradually subside this morning. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the warning areas in the Dominican Republic. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning in these areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday. STORM SURGE FORECAST: Water levels in Puerto Rico should continue receding during the next few hours. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL FORECAST: Computer models has indicated the following accumulations of rainfall in the regions of: Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 35 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 2 to 4 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches. Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches. Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches. THROUGH SATURDAY ... Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF FORECAST: Swells associated with MARIA is beginning to affect the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands ... They will begin to affect the Northern Coast of Hispaniola, The Turks and Caico Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas in the next day or so ... These swells are accompanied by LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. BE AWARE and PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ..... We are watching an area of low pressure off the Southeastern Coast of Mexico ... Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico has continued to increase, but remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in two or three days as the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest or west. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rains are expected over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Stewart NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is TROPICAL STORM JOSE making things difficult along the Eastern Seaboard, as I mentioned, with high surf and dangerous rip currents ... Be aware of this factor .. Strongly advised to stay away from piers, beaches, and the waters until further notice ... A cold frontal boundary is moving southwestward in the Northern Rockies through the Great Basin and the precipitation axis is shifting with this as well ... Rainfall in the valleys, snowfall in the higher elevations .. This precipitation is expected to be scattered abreast ... As the frontal boundary moves into the Plains, lighter precipitation will proceed from there, especially along the Northern Rockies where lighter showers and higher elevation snow showers will shift to the Central Rockies as this front slowly proceeds eastward ... A large upper level trough will be centered over the Western areas of the Nation with that slow moving eastward during the short term ... Friday's forecast showing some deep moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of this trough and there will be plenty of instability in motion across the Plains and Mississippi Valley .. The cold frontal boundary is expected to act as a focus of convection along and ahead of the front from the Plains to the Desert Southwest .. This line of showers and storms will continue into the Overnight and Saturday AM in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains with a MARGINAL RISK there and a SLIGHT RISK as well ... PRIMARY THREAT for STRONG GUSTY WINDS and HAIL ... Marginal risk for flash flooding as a possibility in the forecast for the Upper Midwest and eastern portions of the Northern Plains, then, eastern New Mexico into Western Texas / portions of the Southern Plains ... Something to watch closely in the next few days ... Have a great THURSDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is threatening to cause a few problems in Upper Michigan to Northern Missouri ... We have a MARGINAL RISK issued by The Storm Prediction Center for this afternoon and evening hours for ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS .. A WEAK TORNADO or TWO can't be ruled out in portions of Central and Eastern Wisconsin .. However, this threat is NOT looking as threatening as we thought .. I do believe the cloud coverage from the morning convection should limit the threat for the second round of weather .. Be on alert in case ... TIME FRAME for this event will be 4 - 11 PM EDT ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM JOSE is weakening a bit .. DANGEROUS SURF and RIP CURRENTS been reported along the Eastern Seaboard of the Nation ... LOCATION: 38.8N 70.2W 165 MILES S of NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 8 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 mB or 28.82" CURRENT ADVISORIES: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket JOSE is moving northeast at 8 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight and a decrease in forward speed as well ... On the forecast track, JOSE is expected to pass well east of New Jersey's Coastal Region for today, and pass offshore of Southeastern Massachusetts on Thursday .. JOSE has max sustained winds of 65 mph with higher gusts .. Gradual weakening is in the forecast for the next 48 hours .. Tropical Storm forced winds extend outward up to 230 miles from the center of circulation ... WINDS FORECAST: Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the warning area later today ... SURF FORECAST: SWELLS generated by JOSE are affecting Bermuda, and the majority of the Eastern Seaboard ... SWELLS WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF AND VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... RAINFALL FORECAST: JOSE is expected to bring forecast amounts of rainfall of 1 to as much as 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeastern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts .. Rainfall of 2-4 inches possible for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod through Wednesday .. This amount of rainfall could cause isolated flooding .... REMNANT LOW of LEE: FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized during the past several hours in association with the remnants of Lee, located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Although environmental conditions are marginal for development, only a small increase in the overall organization of the system would result in the regeneration of Lee. This low is expected to move northward over the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI MAIN STORY OF THE DAY: MAJOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS and CATASTROPHIC CAT 4 HURRICANE MARIA ... MARIA'S center of circulation is over NORTHERN PUERTO RICO as we speak ... LOCATION: 18.4N 66.4W 20 MILES W of SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO 20 MILES ESE of ARECIBO PUERTO RICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 13 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 928 MB or 27.40" CURRENT ADVISORIES: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano MARIA is moving towards the northwest at 13 mph and a west-northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue through today, following by a northwesterly turn for Thursday ... The track of Maria's eye is continuing to proceed across Puerto Rico and emerge off the Northern Coast by this afternoon .. The center will then pass just to the North of the Northeastern Regions of the Dominican Republic for tonight and Thursday's forecast ... Max Sustained Winds of 145 mph with higher gusts ... MARIA is currently a MAJOR CATEGORY 4 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE ... Some fluctuations in intensity is expected in the next 24 - 48 hours, but MARIA is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous cat 4 hurricane as she proceeds across Puerto Rico.. Gusts been recorded 100 - 110 mph in Yabucoa Harbor and Camp Santiago, Puerto Rico in the last hour ... Hurricane forced winds extend outwards up to 60 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 150 miles from the center of circulation ... WIND FORECAST: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Dominican Republic tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Thursday in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, with tropical storm conditions in this area by early Thursday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near- surface winds indicated in this advisory. STORM SURGE FORECAST: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL FORECAST: Computer models has indicated the following accumulations of rainfall in the regions of: Central Leeward Islands...additional 1 to 2 inches. Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...additional 2 to 5 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Northern Haiti and southeastern Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR TODAY'S FORECAST SURF FORECAST: Swells associated with MARIA is beginning to affect the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands ... They will begin to affect the Northern Coast of Hispaniola, The Turks and Caico Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas in the next day or so ... These swells are accompanied by LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. BE AWARE and PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: We are watching an area of low pressure off the Southeastern Coast of Mexico ... A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of Mexico a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of Acapulco is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Land interaction should limit development of this system during the next day or two, but a tropical depression will likely form by the weekend when the system moves farther offshore. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rains are expected over portions of southern Mexico during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is TROPICAL STORM JOSE making things difficult along the Eastern Seaboard, as I mentioned, with high surf and dangerous rip currents ... Be aware of this factor .. Strongly advised to stay away from piers, beaches, and the waters until further notice ... A line of convection is occurring to proceed across the Upper Midwest through this morning's forecast as the first round .. The second round beginning late this afternoon and evening has potential for strong to severe storms to form and an axis of heavy rainfall will move into Canada with the occluded frontal boundary ... Showers and storms will accompany the cold frontal boundary extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains ... Light showers shall linger in the Upper Midwest by Friday AM ahead of another impending cold frontal boundary with a SLIGHT RISK expected from the Upper Midwest to the Eastern areas of the Northern Plains by then ... We will keep a weather eye on this development ... The active and stormy weather pattern associated with a deepening trough of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West will continue with heavy rainfall in the forecast for the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West .. Higher elevation snowfall is in the forecast for the Cascades and Northern Rockies ... Thursday's forecast is appearing to show the rainfall decreasing across the Pacific Northwest while moving into the Great Basin as an increasing threat ... Snow will continue in the forecast across the highest elevations of the Rockies and Sierra Nevada Mountains ... Precipitation will continue on eastward on Friday as well ... Finally on the agenda of the forecast, heavy rains are in motion for Central and Southern Texas as the deep moisture pooling from the Gulf of Mexico rushes in place ... The Gulf coastal areas will also experience some showers and thunderstorms of the scattered variety with locally heavy rainfall expected in the Southern half of Florida ... Have a great WEDNESDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is A MAJOR concern for today's forecast as we are expecting several TORNADOES and NUMEROUS SEVERE HAIL and WIND EVENTS throughout the Central and Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley, a few TORNADOES and WIND / HAIL EVENTS are forecast to become significant across portions of the Eastern Dakotas into Western Minnesota with the time frame of 4 PM to 4 AM CDT ... It is advised to have multiple sources for receiving forecasts and weather alerts ... This could become a dangerous situation unfolding later today ... ENHANCED RISK been introduced for this afternoon and evening across the Eastern Dakotas and Western Minnesota ... SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the areas of the Upper Midwest ... MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for portions of the Upper Midwest and portions of Western Texas to Southwestern Oklahoma ... PLEASE BE ON ALERT TODAY, this threat is looking pretty significant and very concerning ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: HURRICANE JOSE is being monitored currently by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters .. DANGEROUS SURF and RIP CURRENTS been reported along the Eastern Seaboard of the Nation ... LOCATION: 36.3N 71.6W 235 MILES ENE of CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA 350 MILES SSW of NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 mB or 28.73" CURRENT ADVISORIES: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Hull * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson * New Haven to Watch Hill JOSE is moving north at 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through today and a turn to the northeast is anticipated for tonight's outlook ... The forecast track of JOSE is to pass well offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula later today, pass well offshore to the east of New Jersey's Coastal Regions on Wednesday, and pass offshore of Southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday .. JOSE has max sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gusts .. Little change in the strength for today's outlook, but JOSE should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday's outlook ... Hurricane forced winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical Storm forced winds extend outward up to 310 miles from the center of circulation ... WINDS FORECAST: Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the warning area to being early Wednesday ... Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch are beginning tonight ... SURF FORECAST: SWELLS generated by JOSE are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the majority of the Eastern Seaboard ... SWELLS WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF AND VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... RAINFALL FORECAST: JOSE is expected to bring forecast amounts of rainfall of 1 to as much as 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeastern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts .. Rainfall of 3 - 5 inches possible for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod through Wednesday .. This amount of rainfall could cause isolated flooding .... REMNANT LOW of LEE: FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: 1. A small low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, is located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone by late in the week while the system moves northwestward to northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Stewart MAIN STORY OF THE DAY: SOON TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANE MARIA: MAJOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS and CATASTROPHIC CAT 5 HURRICANE MARIA ... MARIA'S NEXT MOVE is on the verge of headed for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico ... LOCATION: 16.2N 62.8W 85 MILES W of GUADELOUPE 170 MILES SE of ST CROIX MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 933 MB or 27.55" CURRENT ADVISORIES: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Anguilla * Martinique A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla * Isla Saona to Puerto Plata MARIA is moving towards the west-northwest at 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday ... The forecast path of MARIA has her EYEWALL moving over the Northeastern Caribbean Sea for today's outlook, and on the approach of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for tonight and Wednesday's outlook ... Max Sustained Winds of 160 mph with higher gusts ... MARIA is currently a MAJOR CATEGORY 5 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE ... Some fluctuations in intensity is expected in the next 24 - 48 hours, but MARIA is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous cat 4 or 5 hurricane on the approach of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico ... Hurricane forced winds extend outwards up to 30 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center of circulation ... WIND FORECAST: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread throughout portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder of the hurricane warning area later today and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. STORM SURGE FORECAST: A dangerous storm surge is forecast to be accompanied by large and destructive waves that will raise the tide levels as much 7 - 11 feet above levels in the hurricane watch region as the center of MARIA moves across the Leeward Islands and near the British Virgin Islands... COmbination of dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry regions near the coastal areas to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shorelines ... PUERTO RICO and the US VIRGIN ISLANDS ... 6 - 9 feet ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Computer models has indicated the following accumulations of rainfall in the regions of: Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches. Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF FORECAST: Swells associated with MARIA is beginning to affect the Lesser Antilles ... These swells are accompanied by LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. BE AWARE and PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM OTIS: Fickle OTIS is maintaining his TROPICAL STORM status ... LOCATION: 19.0N 127.9W 1190 MILES W of the SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 3 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB or 29.68" OTIS is moving to the west-southwest at 3 mph ... A turn to the southwest is anticipated by early Wednesdays .. Max sustained winds 40 mph with higher gusts ... weakening is in the forecast and expected to dissipate in the next 36 hours ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center of circulation ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA: NORMA has weakened to a TROPICAL DEPRESSION ... LOCATION: 21.6N 113.9W 270 MILES WSW of CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 6 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 MB or 29.74" NORMA is moving west at 6 mph and this motion expected to continue through today with a gradual turn to the northwest, thereafter ... Max sustained winds of 36 mph with higher gusts ... Further weakening is forecast, and NORMA is expected to degenerate into a REMNANT LOW on Wednesday .. SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by NORMAL are affecting the coastal regions of Southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur and will continue to do so through today .. These swells are likely to cause LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. PLEASE BE ADVISE TO STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER .. LATEST ON INVEST SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ... 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the coast of southeastern Mexico southward for a few hundred miles are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward near the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is HURRICANE JOSE maing things difficult along the Eastern Seaboard, as I mentioned, with high surf and dangerous rip currents ... Be aware of this factor .. Strongly advised to stay away from piers, beaches, and the waters until further notice ... A frontal boundary is draping across the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains and this is the focal point of showers and storms for today's forecast, however, nothing appears to be severe as of yet ... As the boundary is expected to lift northward, scattered to numerous rain showers and storms are expected to be near the frontal boundary in the Central / Southern Plains in addition to the Middle Mississippi Valley ... There is a MARGINAL RISK for flash flooding across the Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Valley through Tuesday AM, torrential downpours are in the forecast ... This precipitation axis is expected to shift along the boundary from the Mississippi to the Ohio Valley for today ... Expecting high temperatures to be well above normal up to 20 degrees through Wednesday ... A strong cold frontal boundary is sweeping across the Northern Plains for Tuesday and Wednesday's forecast with a line of convection ... There is an ENHANCED RISK for severe storms on Tuesday especially in the Northern Plains ahead of the frontal boundary where the primary threat will be some Damaging to Destructive winds, A FEW TORNADOES while a couple could be SIGNIFICANT .. LARGE TO SEVERE HAIL AS WELL ... Be on alert for this factor ... Finally, that strong cold frontal boundary is likely to produce severe storms in the Northern Plains will first bring the widespread precipitation of a much needed threat across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West ... For today, this frontal boundary is proceeding past the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies as it proceeds towards the Northern Plains ... Behind the frontal boundary, much cooler air and widespread precipitation will continue with higher elevation snowfall expected in the Cascades and Northern Rockies ... Another frontal boundary is forecast to approach the region on Tuesday and will bring more widespread rain and higher elevation snowfall with temperatures forecast to be well below normal up to 20 degrees across California into the Great Basin .. Have a great TUESDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is not expected in the forecast for your Monday across the Nation ... Be sure to check the updates throughout the day as the Storm Prediction Center will be monitoring as usual ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: HURRICANE JOSE is being monitored currently by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters .. DANGEROUS SURF and RIP CURRENTS been reported along the Eastern Seaboard of the Nation ... LOCATION: 33.5N 71.2W 270 MILES ESE of CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA 380 MILES W of BERMUDA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 mB or 28.82" CURRENT ADVISORIES: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook * Delaware Bay South * East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket Jose is moving north at 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight's outlook before making a turn to the north-northwest expected by Tuesday PM ... On the forecast track, the center of JOSE is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina for today's outlook, pass well east of the Delmarva Peninsula by tonight and Tuesday, and pass well east of the New Jersey Coastal Regions on Wednesday's outlook ... JOSE has max sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts .. Some gradual weakening is expected in the next 48 hours, however, JOSE is forecast to remain a hurricane through Tuesday's outlook ... Hurricane forced winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical Storm forced winds extend outward up to 205 miles from the center of circulation ... WINDS FORECAST: Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday .. SURF FORECAST: SWELLS generated by JOSE are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the majority of the Eastern Seaboard ... SWELLS WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF AND VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... RAINFALL FORECAST: JOSE is expected to bring forecast amounts of rainfall of 3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, SE Connecticut, S Rhode Island, and SE Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday's forecast .. JOSE is also expected to produce rainfall forecast in the 1 to 3 inches range along the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Regions, and from SE New York to Coastal Maine ... Rainfall could cause isolated flooding .... TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE Poorly organized LEE is expected to become a remnant low by Tonight ... LOCATION: 14.1N 39.8W 1060 MILES W of the CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 13 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 MB or 29.74" LEE is moving west-northwest at 13 mph and this motion is expected to continue through the next 48 hours ... Max sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts ... LEE is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight's outlook ... SOON TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANE MARIA: MARIA is being investigated by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and is forecasting MARIA to become a MAJOR HURRICANE later today as she is INTENSIFYING... LOCATION: 14.6N 59.7W 85 MILES EAST of MARTINIQUE 120 MILES ESE of DOMINICA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 12 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 MB or 28.56" CURRENT ADVISORIES: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Martinique * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines MARIA is moving towards the west-northwest at 12 mph and this motion with a further reduction in acceleration is expected through Tuesday PM .. On the forecast track, the center of MARIA is expected to move across the Leeward Islands late tonight into tonight's outlook .. then over the extreme Northeastern Caribbean Sea for Tuesday and Tuesday Night's outlook ... Max Sustained Winds of 110 mph with higher gusts ... MARIA is currently a CAT 2 HURRICANE and expected to have additional strengthening of rapid intensity for the next 48 hours .. MARIA is expected to become a MAJOR DANGEROUS CAT 3 to 4 HURRICANE as it moves through the Leeward Islands ... Hurricane forced winds extend outwards up to 15 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center of circulation ... WIND FORECAST: Hurricane conditions are first expected within the Leeward Islands by late today, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next several hours ... Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch region by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible tonight ... Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch region through tonight ... STORM SURGE FORECAST: A dangerous storm surge is forecast to be accompanied by large and destructive waves that will raise the tide levels as much 5 - 7 feet above levels in the hurricane watch region as the center of MARIA moves across the Leeward Islands... RAINFALL FORECAST: Computer models has indicated 6 - 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches in the forecast for the Central/Southern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the US and British Virgin Islands through Wednesday PM ... MARIA is also forecast to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 - 4 inches with isolated to 8 inches a possibility in the Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla and north-central Windward Islands and Barbados ... Rainfall of this caliber is expected to cause life threatening flash flooding and mudslides ... SURF FORECAST: Swells associated with MARIA is beginning to affect the Lesser Antilles by tonight ... These swells are accompanied by LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. BE AWARE and PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: HURRICANE OTIS: Fickle OTIS is now rapidly weakening and should downgrade to a Tropical Storm ... LOCATION: 168.5N 127.3W 1165 MILES WSW of the SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 6 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 MB or 28.82" OTIS is moving to the north at 6 mph ... A slower northward motion is expected later today, followed by a turn to the west and southwest by late Tuesday ... Max sustained winds 100 mph with higher gusts ... Rapid weakening is forecast in the next 48 hours ... Hurricane forced winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center of circulation ... TROPICAL STORM NORMA: NORMA is slowly weakening Southwest of Baja California Sur LOCATION: 21.4N 111.8W 160 MILES SW of CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 5 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 MB or 29.53" Norma is moving west-northwest at 5 mph and this motion expected to continue through Tuesday ... On the forecast track, NORMA should gradually move away from the coastal region of Baja California Sur ... Max sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts ... Some weakening in the forecast during the 48 hours, and NORMA should become a TROPICAL DEPRESSION by Tuesday's outlook ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center of circulation ... SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by NORMAL are affecting the coastal regions of Southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur and will continue to do so through Tuesday .. These swells are likely to cause LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. PLEASE BE ADVISE TO STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is HURRICANE JOSE maing things difficult along the Eastern Seaboard, as I mentioned, with high surf and dangerous rip currents ... Be aware of this factor .. Strongly advised to stay away from piers, beaches, and the waters until further notice ... A frontal boundary is draping across the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains and this is the focal point of showers and storms for today's forecast, however, nothing appears to be severe as of yet ... As the boundary is expected to lift northward, scattered to numerous rain showers and storms are expected to be near the frontal boundary in the Central / Southern Plains in addition to the Middle Mississippi Valley ... There is a MARGINAL RISK for flash flooding across the Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Valley through Tuesday AM, torrential downpours are in the forecast ... This precipitation axis is expected to shift along the boundary from the Mississippi to the Ohio Valley by Tuesday ... Expecting high temperatures to be well above normal up to 20 degrees through Wednesday ... A strong cold frontal boundary is sweeping across the Northern Plains for Tuesday and Wednesday's forecast with a line of convection ... There is an ENHANCED RISK for severe storms on Tuesday especially in the Northern Plains ahead of the frontal boundary where the primary threat will be some Damaging to Destructive winds ... Be on alert for this factor ... Finally, that strong cold frontal boundary is likely to produce severe storms in the Northern Plains will first bring the widespread precipitation of a much needed threat across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West ... For today, this frontal boundary is proceeding past the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies as it proceeds towards the Northern Plains ... Behind the frontal boundary, much cooler air and widespread precipitation will continue with higher elevation snowfall expected in the Cascades and Northern Rockies ... Another frontal boundary is forecast to approach the region on Tuesday and will bring more widespread rain and higher elevation snowfall with temperatures forecast to be well below normal up to 20 degrees across California into the Great Basin .. Have a great MONDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is ramping up across portions of Northeastern New Mexico .. Southeastern Colorado ... and into the Texas Panhandle where there is a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for this afternoon and this evening consisting of LARGE DAMAGING HAIL and STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ... A TORNADO or TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL ... For the Central and Southern Plains into Oklahoma and Southern Kansas, a MARGINAL RISK is in place for this afternoon and evening for some SMALL to LARGE HAIL and POSSIBLE STRONG GUSTY WINDS in a few storms there ... BE ON ALERT and HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES to receive your forecast and weather alerts .... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: HURRICANE JOSE is moving at a faster acceleration northward with no changes in the strength ... DANGEROUS SURF and RIP CURRENTS are expected along the EASTERN SEABOARD ... LOCATION: 30.0N 71.7W 420 MILES SSE of CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA 435 MILES WSW of BERMUDA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 8 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 mB or 28.74" Jose is moving north at 8 mph and this general motion with some slight increase in acceleration is expected in the forecast through early Tuesday AM ... JOSE has max sustained winds of 80 mph with higher gusts .. Some fluctuation in intensity remains a possibility for the next 48 hours, but JOSE is expected to remain a CAT 1 HURRICANE through early Tuesday AM ... Hurricane forced winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical Storm forced winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center of circulation ... SWELLS generated by JOSE are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coastal regions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the majority of the Eastern Seaboard ... SWELLS WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF AND VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... TROPICAL STORM LEE LEE is accelerating slowly westward over the Open Eastern Atlantic ... LOCATION: 13.0N 35.4W 790 MILES WSW of the CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 7 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 MB or 29.74" LEE is moving west at 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue through Monday Morning ... A west-northwest motion is expected by Monday afternoon ... ... Max sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts ... Little change in strength is forecast through Monday, and LEE is expected to weaken into a TROPICAL DEPRESSION for Tuesday's forecast .. Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center of circulation .... TROPICAL STORM MARIA: MARIA is expected to become a HURRICANE later today ... LOCATION: 13.3N 55.6W 410 MILES ESE of the LESSER ANTILLES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 MB or 29.36" CURRENT ADVISORIES: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Guadeloupe * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * Martinique * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines MARIA is moving towards the west-northwest at 15 mph and this motion with a further reduction in acceleration is expected in the next 48 hours .. On the forecast track, the center of MARIA will be near the Leeward Islands by Monday night ... Max Sustained Winds of 65 mph with higher gusts ... Strengthening is expected in the next 48 hours and MARIA will become a HURRICANE later today ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center of circulation ... WIND FORECAST: Hurricane conditions are forecast in the hurricane watch region by Monday PM or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions a possibility on Monday ... Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch regions on Monday as well ... STORM SURGE FORECAST: A dangerous storm surge is forecast to be accompanied by large and destructive waves that will raise the tide levels as much 3 - 5 feet above levels in the hurricane watch region ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Computer models has indicated 6 - 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches in the forecast for the Central/Southern Leeward Islands through Wednesday PM ... MARIA is also forecast to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 - 4 inches with isolated to 8 inches a possibility in the Northern Leeward Islands and north-central Windward Islands ... Rainfall of this caliber is expected to cause life threatening flash flooding and mudslides ... SURF FORECAST: Swells associated with MARIA is beginning to affect the Lesser Antilles by tonight ... These swells are accompanied by LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. BE AWARE and PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM OTIS: OTIS is about stationary to little acceleration ... LOCATION: 16.1N 127.4W 1230 MILES WSW of the SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 2 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 MB or 29.56" OTIS is moving to the northwest barely at 2 mph ... A turn towards the north is forecast for later today, but OTIS is forecast to move very little for the next 48 hours ... Max sustained winds have increased to 50 mph with higher gusts ... Some additional strengthening is possible in the forecast for today ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center of circulation ... TROPICAL STORM NORMA: NORMA is weakening as she heads towards the Southern Baja California ... LOCATION: 20.7N 110.5W 115 MILES SSW of CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 5 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 MB or 29.59" CURRENT ADVISORIES: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Los Barriles to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro Norma is moving north-northward at 5 mph and a turn to the northwest is expected on Monday ... On the forecast track, the center of NORMA will move just west of the Baja California peninsula for today and Monday's forecast ... Max sustained winds of 45 mph with higher gusts ... Additional weakening is expected through Monday ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center of circulation ... WIND FORECAST: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coastal regions within the warning regions by this afternoon ... Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch region by tonight or early on Monday AM ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Total rainfall accumulations of 2 - 4" is expected over the coastal regions of Southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts to 8 inches possible ... These rainfall amounts could produce life threatening flash flooding ... SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by NORMAL are affecting the coastal regions of Southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur and will continue to do so through early next week .. These swells are likely to cause LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. PLEASE BE ADVISE TO STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is a frontal boundary is proceeding eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Central Plains ... For today's forecast, this boundary is the focal point for some severe weather in the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest, otherwise, showers and storms are in the forecast for the Upper Great Lakes ... By Monday's forecast, expected this front to stall out and eventually then lift on northward across the Plains, Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with which produce more showers and storms in the forecast with some possible flash flooding from heavy rainfall for the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley ... So be aware ... Strong cold frontal boundary is proceeding its way into the Pacific Northwest for today and tonight's forecast, bringing the increase in precipitation across the region ... The frontal boundary will continue to proceed eastward across the Intermountain West through Tuesday's forecast with widespread precipitation as well ... On Monday, lighter amounts of snow showers in the highest elevations will occur across the Cascades and Northern Rockies ... As more precipitation proceeds across the Northern Rockies for Tuesday's forecast, an increasing amounts of snowfall across these mountain ranges are expected ... Finally, a frontal system proceeding across the Mississippi Valley and Plains, above average temperatures are in the forecast with Tuesday's forecast highs expected well into the 90s ... New England region will also experiences highs almost 20 degrees above normal for mid September ... The western states will feel the coolness through the short term period ... Have a great SUNDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is ramping up across portions of the Central Kansas to the Lower Missouri Valley where a SLIGHT RISK is in place for this afternoon and evening hours ... MARGINAL RISK in place across the Upper Mississippi Valley to Northern Oklahoma ... We can expected isolated to scattered severe weather with HAIL AND WIND as the main threat across the regions mentioned .. Be aware of that factor .. MAIN THREAT will be VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with URBANIZED FLOODING and FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING as well ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: HURRICANE JOSE is steadily moving on northwestward ... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES possibility on the Eastern Seaboard for later today ... LOCATION: 27.9N 71.8W 550 MILES SSE of CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA 515 MILES SW of BERMUDA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 mB or 29.03" Jose is moving northwest at 9 mph and expected a gradual turn to the north is expected for later today with a slight decrease in forward speed ... JOSE has max sustained winds of 80 mph with higher gusts .. Some strengthening is expected in the next 48 hours and is forecast to remain a hurricane for several days .. Hurricane forced winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical Storm forced winds extend outward up to 150 miles from the center of circulation ... SWELLS generated by JOSE are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coastal regions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeastern coastal regions of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coastal regions for the next few days ... SWELLS WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF AND VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E TROPICAL DEPRESSION moving westward over the Far Eastern Atlantic over OPEN WATERS ... LOCATION: 12.6N 32.1W 590 MILES WSW of the CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 7 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 MB or 29.77" 14-E is moving west at 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue trhough Sunday ... Max sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts ... The depression is forecast to become a TROPICAL STORM later today or tomorrow's forecast before conditions become hostile for strengthening ... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A FORECAST FOR THE INVEST SYSTEM: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands continue to show signs of organization, but it is unclear if the system has a well-defined center of circulation. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form at any time today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Hurricane or tropical storm watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles later today, and interests on those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Berg TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: Depression is weakening as it continues on a drifting westward motion ... LOCATION: 15.8N 126.0W 1155 MILES WSW of the SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 2 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 MB OR 29.74" 15-E is moving W at 2 mph and expected to be a very slow westward motion in the next 24 - 48 hours ... Max sustained winds at 30 mph with higher gusts ... Little change in strength is forecast in the next 48 hours ... HURRICANE NORMA: NORMA is a HURRICANE remaining stationary South of Baja California ... LOCATION: 19.1N 110.1W 60 MILES ENE of SOCORRO ISLAND 260 MILES S of CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: STATIONARY MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 MB or 29.15" CURRENT ADVISORIES: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Los Barriles to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of Norma. Norma is STATIONARY and a slow northward motion should begin later today and continue on into Sunday ... Max sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gusts ... Some slight strengthening is in the forecast during the next 48 hours ... Hurricane forced winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center of circulation ... Tropical Storm forced winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center of circulation ... Swells generated by Norma is beginning to affect portions of the coastal regions of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Sur this weekend ... WIND FORECAST: Tropical storm conditions are expected first to reach the warning region by early Sunday before making outside preparations difficult to dangerous ... Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch region by late Sunday or early Monday ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Total rainfall accumulations of 8-12" is expected over the Southern portions of the Mexican state of Baja California Sur, with isolated to 20 inches or more ... Producing life threatening flash flooding ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is an upper level low continuing to progress eastward from the Intermountain West to the Upper Midwest ... A surface cold frontal boundary is following in the wake proceeding across the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley .. Focus for showers and storms will exapnd from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern Plains for the weekend ... This will be expanding eastward on Sunday across the Great Lakes as the cold frontal boundary sweeps eastward to the Ohio Valley as well for showers and storms ... Lighter precipitation in the forecast for the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West for today's forecast and will completely taper off by early Sunday AM ... Light snowfall expected in the Northern Rockies .. As a frontal system is approaching the Pacific Northwest for Sunday's forecast, precipitation is expected to increase across the region .. By Monday AM, a cold frontal boundary will progess on eastward into the Intermountain West, this will cause some scattered rain showers with higher elevation snowfall through the Pacific Northwest ... The light snow will occur along the Cascades for Sunday and Monday with an increasing threat for light snow showers in the Northern Rockies on Monday as the front proceed inland further ... Finally, the Gulf Coast is expecting some showers and storms in the early afternoon to evening hours through the weekend ... Hurricane Jose will continue the threat for dangerous surf and rip current throughout the weekend and early this upcoming week ... Rainfall on the increase for the Coastal Carolinas with light showers through Monday's forecast ... Have a great SATURDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is ramping up across portions of the Upper Midwest ... We have a MARGINAL RISK in place across the Upper Midwest with a wave of low pressure up there ... Those storms up in the region could consist of HAIL, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, and a COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES ... Be aware of that factor if you reside in the region ... ALL THREATS will be HEAVY RAINFALL with URBANIZED FLOODING possible and FREQUENT, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM JOSE moving slowly westward ... EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF and LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF EASTERN SEABOARD ... LOCATION: 25.9N 68.7W 360 MILES NE of the SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS 500 MILES SSW of BERMUDA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 750 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 8 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 9869 mB or 29.21" Jose is moving west-northwest at 8 mph and expected a gradual turn to the north is expected for later today and on Saturday ... JOSE has max sustained winds of 70 mph with higher gusts .. Some strengthening is expected in the next 48 hours and is forecast to regain his HURRICANE status later today ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center of circulation ... SWELLS generated by JOSE are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coastal regions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeastern coastal regions of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coastal regions for the next few days ... SWELLS WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF AND VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E TROPICAL DEPRESSION moving westward over the Far Eastern Atlantic ... Forecast to become a TROPICAL STORM ... LOCATION: 10.6N 27.3W 435 MILES SSW of the CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 15 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 MB or 29.77" 14-E is moving west at 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue in the next couple of days ... Max sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts ... The depression is forecast to become a TROPICAL STORM later today or tomorrow's forecast ... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A FORECAST FOR THE INVEST SYSTEM: 1. A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system while it moves westward to west- northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. FORECASTER BLAKE TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E EXPECTING TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM OTIS: LOCATION: 15.9N 124.5W 1065 MILES WSW of the SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 5 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB OR 29.68" 15-E is moving WNW at 5 mph and expected to be a very slow westward motion in the next 24 - 48 hours ... Max sustained winds at 35 mph with higher gusts ... Some strengthening is expected in the next 48 hours and the system should become a TROPICAL STORM later today ... TROPICAL STORM NORMA: NORMA forecast to become a HURRICANE while moving slowly towards the Baja California Sur ... LOCATION: 18.6N 109.7@ 85 MILES E of SOCORRO ISLAND 295 MILES S of CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 2 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 MB or 29.53" Interests in the Baja California Sur needs to monitor the progression of Norma ... HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BECOME FORTHCOMING FOR LATER TODAY ... Norma is moving north at 2 mph and this slow motion is expected for the next 48 hours ... Max sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts ... Some strengthening is in the forecast during the next 48 hours and NORMA should become a HURRICANE on Saturday ... Tropical Storm forced winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center of circulation ... Swells generated by Norma is beginning to affect portions of the coastal regions of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Sur this weekend ... REMNANTS OF MAX: (LAST FORECAST ADVISORY) MAX Will degenerate into a broad area of low pressure ... LOCATION: 17.0N 98.0W 125 MILES E of ACAPULCO MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 5 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB OR 29.68" MAX is moving east-northeastward at 5 mph and expected to continue until dissipation later today Max Sustained Winds of 30 mph with higher gusts and will dissipate later today ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Expecting MAX to produce total accumulations of 5 - 10" in the Mexican state of Guerrero and western portions of the state of Oaxaca ... Max amounts in excess of 20" locally is a possibility especially in coastal Guerrero .. These torrential rains may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather an amplifying upper level trough, with a surface cold frontal boundary is expected to proceed from the Intermountain West to the Great Lakes over the next few days which should bring some precipitation across these regions ... On Friday, the heaviest axis of precipitation is expected in the Intermountain West, Northern Plains , and Central Great Basin ... SLIGHT RISK for some severe weather is in the forecast for tomorrow across the Northern Plains ahead of the impending cold front ... There is much cooler conditions settling in behind this frontal system and this could bring the first significant snowfall of the season to the Northern Rockies ... The heaviest axis of precipitation will continue to shift on northward in the forecast period with the upper level trough continuing to proceed on an easterly track ... By Saturday's forecast, the heavy precipitation is expected to proceed into Canada while some rainfall and thunderstorms should fire along and ahead of the front in the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley ... Lingering showers and snowfall will be in the forecast for the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies ... We do have a system that will stream moisture from the Pacific into Mexico and Western Texas providing for some showers and storms for tonight through the weekend ... The aforementioned cold frontal boundary will move into the Southern Plains with precipitation axis shifting into Oklahoma and Texas with the weak upper level disturbance riding in the Western Gulf of Mexico will gradually shift to the Eastern areas with an increasing threat for showers and storms there through mid-weekend ... Finally, the temperatures above normal from early in the previous month, we are now flipping the switch as a deep upper level trough begins to build in the Western states ... Eastern portions of the Nation will see temperatures soar to as much 15 degrees above normal averages for mid September ... Mid to upper 90s forecast ahead of the cold front across the Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley, Sunday will bring the relief of much cooler temperatures ... Wishing you all a very pleasant Friday! Please remember to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer Morning Edition of the National Storm Channel
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 14TH, 2017 Assistant Forecaster / Social Media Coordinator David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK: Severe weather is ramping up across portions of the Central and Southern Rockies where a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather for this afternoon and this evening will take shape across Southern Utah, Northern Arizona, and the Greater Four Corners Regions where DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, a COUPLE TORNADOES are possible ... MARGINAL RISK is in place SURROUNDING that SLIGHT RISK across the Four Corners Region ... We also have a MARGINAL RISK in place across the Eastern Dakotas into Northern Minnesota with a wave of low pressure up there ... Those storms up in the Upper Mississippi Valley could consist of HAIL and STRONG GUSTY WINDS ... Be aware of that factor if you reside in the region ... ALL THREATS will be HEAVY RAINFALL with URBANIZED FLOODING possible and FREQUENT, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: HURRICANE JOSE IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE moving slowly westward ... LOCATION: 25.1N 66.5W 445 MILES ENE of the SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS 510 MILES SSW of BERMUDA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 3 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 mB or 29.12" Jose is moving west at 3 mph and expected a turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed expected later today .. Max sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gust .. JOSE is a CATEGORY 1 ... Little change in strength in the forecast for the 48 hours ... Possible downgrade to TROPICAL STORM is rising possibly by Friday ... Hurricane forced winds extending outward 25 miles from the center and 115 miles outward with tropical storm forced winds SWELLS are being experienced and affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coastal regions of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Southeastern United States and this will also spread into the Mid-Atlantic coastal region during the next few days ... Be aware of VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ... NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TWO TROPICAL WAVES WE ARE WATCHING CLOSELY: 1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 2. Another tropical wave, located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become less favorable. The system is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Blake TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E EXPECTING TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM OTIS: LOCATION: 15.3N 122.2W 960 MILES WSW of the SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 5 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB OR 29.68" 15-E is moving WNW at 5 mph and expected to be slow westward motion in the next 24 - 48 hours ... Max sustained winds at 35 mph with higher gusts ... No change in strength expected today, but has an opportunity to become a TROPICAL STORM named OTIS in the next 24 - 48 hours ... INVEST SYSTEM about to be upgraded to TROPICAL STORM NORMA: Showers and storms associated with a low pressure system located 400 miles S of the Southern Tip of the Baja California Peninsula continuing to show signs of organization, and it appears to become a Tropical Depression .. and it trends continues, advisories will likely be posted on this system later today ... The low is expected to drift on northward during the next 48 hours , and interests in the Southern Portions of the Baja California Sur should monitor this system's progression ... NEAR 100 PRECENT to form into a TD or TS .. HURRICANE MAX: MAX has become a hurricane and HURRICANE WARNINGS been issued for the Southwestern Coastal Regions of Mexico ... LOCATION: 16.3N 100.4W 55 MILES SW of ACAPULCO MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: E @ 6 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 MB OR 29.30" HURRICANE WARNING is in effect from Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado ... MAX is moving eastward at 6 mph and an east to east-northeast motion is expected to continue until MAX moves inland along the Southwestern Mexico Coastal Region for later today ... Max Sustained Winds of 75 mph with higher gusts and some additional strengthen expected before MAX makes landfall and will gradually weaken ... Hurricane forced winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center of circulation while tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center of circulation ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Expecting MAX to produce total accumulations of 5 - 10" in the Mexican state of Guerrero and western portions of the state of Oaxaca ... Max amounts in excess of 20" locally is a possibility especially in coastal Guerrero .. These torrential rains may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides ... WIND FORECAST: Hurricane and Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin shortly within the warning regions ... STORM SURGE FORECAST: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall ... Near the coastal regions, the surge will be accompany by large and destructive waves ... Be aware and alerted, head inland if you can .... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is some upper level energy in the Ohio Valley that was once associated with IRMA is slowly weakening and moving off the New England Coastal Region forecast for Friday evening .. This energy will produce some showers over portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes and then extending into the Central and Southern Appalachians ending overnight ... Showers and storms are in the forecast for the Mid-Atlantic into portions of the Northeast and New England will move off the coast of the Northeast by Friday AM ... Rain showers are expected to develop in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast for another day of wet weather for your Friday ... Upper level energy over Southern California is expected to extend northeastward into the Northern Plains for tomorrow evening ... This energy wave is expected to produce some developing rain showers and thunderstorms over portions of Southern California extending into the Southern Rockies and Great Basin along with portions of the Rockies ... These showers and storms will also end over portions of the Southwest and Rockies by Friday ... Moisture and weak upper level impulses are expected to develop some showers and storms over the Southern High Plains that will begin overnight and continue through Friday PM ... A quasi stationary frontal boundary we've been watching closely extending up in the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes extending southwestward into the Central Plains and Central High Plains into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin has been producing showers and storms in the region and will continue through Friday PM ... The upper level trough in place is expected to proceed into the Northern Rockies for today and linger around through Friday PM ... Rainfall will begin development over the Northern Rockies through Friday's forecast ... The funny thing snow levels are expected to lower for the overnight, so we could very well see some snow showers, heavy at times, developing over the highest elevations of the Rockies through Friday PM ... Tropical moisture over portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Southeast will develop some showers and storms through Friday PM ... Have a great THURSDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is NOT expected to be a concern for today's forecast ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: HURRICANE JOSE IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE moving southeastward over the Southwestern Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda LOCATION: 26.1N 66.0W 505 MILES ENE of the SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS 435 MILES S of BERMUDA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: SE @ 8 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 mB or 29.09" Jose is moving southeast at 8 mph and will be expected to make a clockwise loop during the next 36 to 48 hours, moving west-northwest by late Thursday. Max sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gust .. JOSE is a CATEGORY 1 ... Little change in strength in the forecast for the 48 hours ... Possible downgrade to TROPICAL STORM is rising ... Hurricane forced winds extending outward 25 miles from the center and 140 miles outward with tropical storm forced winds TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E: LOCATION: 14.9N 119.4W 830 MILES SW of CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO 830 MILES SW of THE SOUTHERN TIP of BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 MB OR 29.65" 15-E is moving W near 9 mph and expect in this general motion for the next 48 hours with a decrease in forward speed .. Max sustained winds at 35 mph with higher gusts ... Some strengthening is in the forecast and the system could become a TROPICAL STORM later today ... TWO DISTURBANCES ARE BEARING TO WATCH CLOSELY IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC THAT COULD VERY WELL BECOME DEPRESSIONS .. FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ... 1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is centered just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. This activity continues to show signs of organization and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tomorrow before the system moves inland over southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are expected to begin spreading inland over southwestern Mexico later today. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while it moves slowly northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 3. Another area of low pressure is located more than 1700 miles west-southwest of the Baja California peninsula. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves little during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Avila NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the low pressure over the Mid Mississippi Valley and slowly winding down and moving on through the Western Ohio valley while dissipating by Thursday PM .. Rain showers is expected to develop over portions of the Ohio / Tennessee Valleys expected to spread into the Central / Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic while the Atlantic will supply the feeder for showers and storms to develop off the Northern Mid-Atlantic by tonight ... Upper-level energy from the remnants of IRMA will move into portions of the Northeast for the end of the week ahead and will aid in producing a few showers and storms for Thursday's forecast ... Tropical moisture slowly creepy northward over the Florida Peninsula is expected to spread northward into the Southeast by tomorrow AM .. Rain showers and storms will begin developing over poritons of the Southern Peninsula of Florida for today's forecast and spreading on into portions of the Southeast for late and then off the coast by Thursday AM .. Quasi-stationary frontal boundary is extending from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Plains and then expanding into portion of the Northern High Plains and Great Basin aiding in development of rainfall and storms for today ... Showers and storms also developing over the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains expected to proceed into the Central and Northern Plains through the Upper Mississippi Valley by tomorrow AM continuing through the region for the evening hours ... The upper-level troughing is expected through the evening on Thursday ... Rainfall will develop over the Northern Rockies for the overnight tonight and then continue through tomorrow PM ... Wet snow showers a good bet over the highest elevations of the Northern Rockies!!! Furthermore, an upper level low over the Central California Coast will move inland while weakening on the path to the Southwest and Great Bain by tomorrow PM ... Expecting the circulation around that low to aid in pulling some moisture off the Gulf of California and Pacific into portions of the Southwest that is expected to weaken by tomorrow afternoon ... In the meantime, showers and storms are in the forecast for portions of the Great Basin and Southwest from Central California ... This will expand into the Central and Southern Rockeis by tomorrow evening ... Have a great WEDNESDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is turning much quieter across the Nation as we only have a small region of MARGINAL RISK for severe storms for this afternoon and evening across portions of Central California Valleys where a few storms could contain ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: POST - TROPICAL CYCLONE IRMA (LAST FORECAST) Post Tropical Cyclone IRMA is just bringing some general moderate rainfall to portions of the Southeast US, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys for today's forecast ... LATEST STATS at 8 AM EDT / 7 AM CDT: LOCATION: 33.0N 85.2W 65 MILES SW of ATLANTA GEORGIA 100 MILES ESE of BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 10 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 mB or 29.47" LATEST ADVISORIES: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: FLASH FLOOD WATCHES are in effect for portions of the Southern Appalachians ... FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES are ONGOING SCATTERED through the Southeast ... IRMA is now classified as a post tropical cyclone system in the last several hours, and is moving northwestward through the Southeastern portions of the Nation and will continue to do so and approach the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday afternoon ... IRMA is expected to continue to weaken throughout today's outlook ... Rainfall from the bands of Post Tropical Cyclone IRMA is expected to bring 1-3" with locally isolated up to 5" across Northern South Carolina into Southern and Western North Carolina .. Localized intense rainfall rates are expected to bring additional isolated areas of flash flooding and rapid rises on area creeks, streams, and rivers ... Closer to the circulation, an additional 1-2" is expected across Northern Mississippi, Northwestern Alabama, Eastern Arkansas, Western Tennessee, and Western Kentucky .. Significant River Flooding will persist over the majority of the Florida Peninsula in the wake of IRMA, while additional river flooding is expected across Georgia and Eastern Alabama ... HURRICANE JOSE IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STILL CHURNING in the WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC ... JOSE is EXPECTED TO DOWNGRADE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE LATER UPDATES as he turns EASTWARD later in the day ... LOCATION: 27.5N 69.0W 435 MILES NNE of GRAND TURK ISLAND 655 MILES NNW of SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: E @ 6 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 mB or 29.15" Jose is moving east at 6 mph and will continue in the motion through today, a turn to the southeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn towards the southwest on Wednesday .. Max sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gust .. JOSE is a CATEGORY 1 ... Steady weakening is forecast and downgrading to a TROPICAL STORM for later today ... Hurricane forced winds extending outward 25 miles from the center and 140 miles outward with tropical storm forced winds FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC: 1. Widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands are poorly organized. Upper-level winds are not expected to support significant development while the system moves northwestward to northward for the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Pasch TROPICAL PACIFIC OUTLOOK: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E: LOCATION: 15.8N 115.1W 745 MILES WSW of MANZANILLO MEXICO 590 MILES SW of THE SOUTHERN TIP of BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: w @ 15 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 MB OR 29.71" 15-E is moving W near 15 mph and a west-southwesterly motion at a slower speed is forecast later today followed by a turn towards the west on Wednesday ... Max sustained winds at 30 mph with higher gusts ... Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours ... TWO DISTURBANCES ARE BEARING TO WATCH CLOSELY IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC THAT COULD VERY WELL BECOME DEPRESSIONS .. FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ... 1. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system moves slowly north or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week, while it moves slowly northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Landsea NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the affects of the remnant of IRMA causing some showers and possible embedded storms across the Southern Ohio Valley and Tennessee / Lower Mississippi Valleys for today will spread eastward to the Southeast / Southern Mid-Atlantic for today and then Overnight Tuesday, that rain will spread into the Great lakes and the Middle Mississippi Valley that will end there on Wednesday PM ... In addition, tropical moisture will move into Southern Florida during the overnight Tuesday that will aid in showers and storms over the Southeastern and Southern Florida for Wednesday's forecast ... Upper-level low continues to circulate off the Southern California Coastal Region and will slowly begin to move inland over Southern California for this afternoon into Wednesday ... Moisture from the Gulf of California and Pacific will return to portions of the Desert Southwest into Southwestern California overnight Tuesday into Wednesday ... Showers and storms will develop over Northern California and spread eastward to the Central Rockies through Wednesday PM ... Additionally, upper-level impulses is expected to aid in showers and storms developing over Northern and Central Plains for tonight that is expected to spread into the Upper Mississippi Valley / Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday PM ... Have a great TUESDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF'S Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is an ongoing situation across the Northern Florida now expanding to coastal Georgia and South Carolina for later today from now downgraded to TROPICAL STORM IRMA ... The Storm Prediction Center has a SLIGHT RISK issued for portions of South Carolina and Georgia Coastal Regions, the threat for few tornadoes is expected ... MARGINAL RISK is in place surrounding the SLIGHT RISK including Extreme Southeastern North Carolina, Central South Carolina, and Southeastern Georgia, and Extreme Northeastern Florida ... Another region for MARGINAL RISK comes from the upper-level low off the Central California Coastal Region .. MARGINAL RISK in effect for GUSTY ISOLATED WINDS in Interior Central and Southern California TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM IRMA .. IRMA has finally begun the downgrading and weakening stage .. however, producing some serious wind gusts to near HURRICANE FORCE ... LATEST STATS at 8 AM EDT / 7 AM CDT: LOCATION: 29.5N 82.9W 30 MILES NNE of CEDAR KEY FLORIDA 105 MILES NNW of TAMPA FLORIDA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 18 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 mB or 28.64" LATEST ADVISORIES: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line * Cape Sable northward to the Ochlockonee River * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * Jupiter Inlet to the South Santee River * Lake Okeechobee IRMA is moving north-northwest at 18 mph and this motion expected to continue through Tuesday ... On the forecast track of IRMA, the center of circulation is expected to move near the Northwestern Coastal Region of the Florida Peninsula for this morning, crossing into Eastern Florida Panhandle into Southern Georgia for this afternoon, and then proceeding through Southwestern Georgia and Eastern Alabama tonight and Tuesday, further weakening to a Tropical Depression .. IRMA has max sustained winds of 70 mph with higher gusts ... She is a TROPICAL STORM and additional slow weakening is forecast, and IRMA is expected to become a TROPICAL DEPRESSION by Tuesday PM ... Hurricane forced winds extends outward up to 60 miles from the center of circulation, while Tropical Storm winds extend outward up to 415 miles from the center of circulation ... EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD is on ... Latest forecast for STORM SURGE: Latest forecast on the combination of life threatening storm surges and large breaking waves will raise the water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ... Cape Sable to Captiva...2 to 4 ft Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...1 to 2 ft Anna Maria Island to Clearwater, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 t 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft WIND FORECAST: TROPICAL STORM conditions will persist across portions of the Central and Northern Florida Peninsula, and are spreading into Southern Georgia as I type this out ... TROPICAL STORM conditions should spread into the Eastern Florida Panhandle for today's forecast .. TROPICAL STORM conditions are also expected to spread northward for the remainder of the warning regions for today's forecast ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Total rainfall amounts in the forecast by the computer models... The Florida Keys and southern Florida peninsula: additional 1 inch. Central Florida peninsula: additional 1 to 3 inches. Northern Florida peninsula and southern Georgia: additional 3 to 6 inches with storm total amounts of 8 to 15 inches. Central Georgia, eastern Alabama and southern South Carolina: 3 to inches, isolated 10 inches. Central Florida Panhandle, western Alabama, northern Mississippi, southern Tennessee, northern Georgia, northern South Carolina and western North Carolina: 2 to 4 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods A FEW TORNADOES are expected and possible across Northeastern Florida and Southeastern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through tonight's forecast ... SURF FORECAST: Swells being generated by IRMA is affecting the Southeastern Coastal United States at this time ... These will CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF and RIP CURRENTS .. Be aware to STAY AWAY from the WATERS and BEACHES til further notice .... HURRICANE JOSE IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE STILL CHURNING in the WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC ... JOSE is EXPECTED TO LINGER over the WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS ... STILL BEARS WATCHING as FORECAST MODELS are trying to hint for a US MAINLAND CLOSE BRUSH by the upcoming weekend .. STAY TUNED! LOCATION: 24.4N 68.6W 255 MILES NE of GRAND TURK ISLAND MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 10 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 mB or 28.59" Jose is moving NNW at 10 mph and a turn toward the Northeast is expected by tonight, with a reduction in forward speed ... JOSE is then expected to move slowly towards the east and southeast Tuesday into Wednesday's forecast ... Max sustained winds of 105 mph with higher gust .. JOSE is a CATEGORY 2 ... Steady weakening is forecast for the next 48 hours ... Hurricane forced winds extending outward 25 miles from the center and 150 miles outward with tropical storm forced winds SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by JOSE is effecting portions of the Hispaniola, the Bahama, and the Turks and Caico Islands over the next 48 hours ... PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and THE WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .. LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS and HIGH SURF ARE ONGOING ... FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC: 1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to move west-northwestward for the next two days and then turn northward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Landsea NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the upper-level low off the Southern California Coastal Region is beginning to proceed inland north off the California Coast by Tuesday evening ... Circulation around that low will stream the moisture from the Gulf of California and the Pacific into the Desert Southwest and Southern California expecting to weaken by Tuesday PM ... The moisture is expected to develop showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Southeastern California through Monday ... A frontal boundary over the Northern Plains is proceeding eastward through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday PM ... Showers and storms in the forecast in the Northern Plains into the Northern Rockies for today will proceed into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday PM .. Furthermore, the upper-level energy over the Northern Plains expecting to lift into the Upper Mississippi Valley for today and weaken by Monday into the Upper Great Lakes ... Upper-level energy over the Central Rockies and Central High Plains will be a quasi-stationary through Tuesday with the energy aiding in triggering some showers and storms over the Central Plains into the Central Rockies through Tuesday evening ... Have a great MONDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is an ongoing situation across the State of Florida due to the effects of Hurricane Irma ... Made landfall just recently in the Florida Keys .. HURRICANE IRMA's TORNADO THREAT WILL SPREAD OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING'S FORECAST ... PLEASE BE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES to RECEIVE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS as you can ... ENHANCED RISK is in motion across the Florida Eastern Coastal Regions ... SLIGHT RISK is in motion surrounding the ENHANCED over the majority of the Florida Peninsula ... MARGINAL RISK is in motion surrounding the SLIGHT and extending into the Southern South Carolina Coastal Region ... Be on Alert! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: HURRICANE IRMA -- MAJOR CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE .... The center of Irma has made landfall on the Lower Florida Keys .. LATEST STATS: LOCATION: 24.5N 81.5W 20 MILES ESE of KEY WEST FLORIDA 110 MILES S of NAPLES FLORIDA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 130 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 8 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 929 mB or 27.43" LATEST ADVISORIES: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuban provinces of Matanzas and La Habana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bimini and Grand Bahama IRMA is moving north-northwest at 8 mph and an increase in forward speed is in the forecast for later today, with that motion continuing through Monday ... The forecast track has the EYE of IRMA moving over the Lower Florida Keys currently, and then move near or over the West Coastal Florida Peninsula later today or tonight ... Irma should be moving inland over Northern Florida and Southwestenr Georgia by Monday afternoon ... IRMA has max sustained winds of 130 mph with higher gusts ... She is a Major Category 4 hurricane ... While weakening is in her forecast, IRMA is expected to remain a powerful hurricane while it moves through Florida Keys and near the West Coastal Florida ... Hurricane forced winds extends outward up to 80 miles from the center of circulation, while Tropical Storm winds extend outward up to 220 miles from the center of circulation ... 89 MPH WIND GUSTS recorded at the KEY WEST NWS OFFICE ... 72 MPH GUSTS was recorded at TAMIAMI AIRPORT in WEST KENDALL ... Latest forecast for STORM SURGE: Latest forecast on the combination of life threatening storm surges and large breaking waves will raise the water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ... Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys... 5 to 10 ft Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay... 5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay... 3 to 5 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...2 to 4 ft North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft The combination of a life threatening STORM SURGE and the tide will cause normally dry regions near the coast to be flooded by the rising waters moving inland from the shorelines ... Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND FORECAST: HURRICANE conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the Northern Coast of Cuba through this morning ... Hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of the Florida Keys and Southern Florida ... Winds affecting the upper floors of high rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level ... Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning area through Monday ... Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Northwestern Bahamas for today ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Total rainfall amounts in the forecast by the computer models... Western Cuba...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. The Florida Keys...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. The southern Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. The remainder of the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. The rest of Georgia, eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and in some mudslides. TORNADOES ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL, EASTERN, and SOUTHERN FLORIDA ... ADVICE: DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, DANGEROUS WINDS will return very quickly when the eye moves away ... SURF FORECAST: Swells being generated by IRMA is affecting the Southeastern Coastal United States at this time ... These will CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF and RIP CURRENTS .. Be aware to STAY AWAY from the WATERS and BEACHES til further notice .... HURRICANE JOSE IS A MAJOR CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ... JOSE passing well NORTH of Puerto Rico this morning with NOAA buoys reporting wind gusts of 110 mph ... LOCATION: 21.2N 65.3W 250 MILES NNW of the NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS 375 MILES E of GRAND TURK ISLAND MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 130 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 16 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 mB or 27.88" ADVISORIES FOR JOSE: NONE ... ALL CANCELLED!!! Jose is moving NW at 16 mph and expected for the next 24 hours .. A slower forward speed motion is expected later Monday into Tuesday as JOSE begins to make a turn towards the North Max sustained winds of 130 mph with higher gust as a MAJOR CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE and is expected to begin gradual weakening for the next 48 hours Hurricane forced winds extending outward 35 miles from the center and 115 miles outward with tropical storm forced winds SURF FORECAST: Swells generated by JOSE is effecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and the northern coast of Puerto Rico, and will begin affecting Hispaniola, portions of the Bahamas, the Turks and Caico Islands over the next 48 hours ... PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM PIERS, BEACHES, and THE WATERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .. LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS and HIGH SURF ARE ONGOING ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the upper-level low off the Southern California Coastal Region is beginning to proceed inland north off the California Coast by Monday Evening ... Circulation around that low will stream the moisture from the Gulf of California and the Pacific into the Desert Southwest and Southern California expecting to weaken by Monday and Monday PM ... The moisture is expected to develop showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Southeastern California through Monday ... A frontal boundary over the Northern Plains is proceeding eastward through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday PM ... Showers and storms in the forecast in the Northern Plains into the Northern Rockies for today will proceed into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday PM .. Furthermore, the upper-level energy over the Northern Plains expecting to lift into the Upper Mississippi Valley for today and weaken by Monday into the Upper Great Lakes ... Showers and storms expected over portions of the Central and Northern Plains will slowly proceed northeastward over the Upper Mississippi Valley while ending by Sunday Pm ... Have a great SUNDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
The main story with today's severe weather threat is associated with Hurricane Irma approaching Southern Florida ... Increasing threat is happening with a SLIGHT RISK in place over Southern Florida ... MARGINAL RISK is in place across Central Florida ... We are expected to see an increasing tornado threat existing across Southern Florida beginning now through tonight's forecast ... GREATEST POTENTIAL TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED TONIGHT and OVERNIGHT across the FLORIDA KEYS into CENTRAL and SOUTHERN FLORIDA on the approaching of IRMA to the FLORIDA KEYS ... BE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES of RECEIVING WARNINGS and the LATEST FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS ... CRITICAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: THE LATEST ON THE THREE BIG STORMS WE ARE WATCHING VERY CLOSELY AS WE ALREADY KNOW! EVERYTHING IS THE LATEST from 11 AM EDT UPDATES .... HURRICANE IRMA HURRICANE IRMA is now hitting the coastal regions of Northern Cuba as we speak ... Terrain of Cuba has definitely WEAKENED the hurricane, however, but is EXPECTED to RESTRENGTHEN as she begins her turn towards the Florida Keys ... BE ON THE ALERT! LATEST STATS as of 8 AM EDT: LOCATION: 22.6N 79.6W 10 MILES NW of CAIBARIEN CUBA 225 MILES S of MIAMI FLORIDA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 130 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 12 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 937 mB or 27.67" LATEST ADVISORIES: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Volusia/Brevard County Line southward around the Florida peninsula to Chassahowitzka * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County line * North of Chassahowitzka to Suwannee River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line southward around the Florida peninsula to Chassahowitzka * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Matanzas * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Fernandina Beach * North and west of Chassahowitzka to Indian Pass * Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Holguin, Las Tunas, La Habana, and Ciudad de la Habana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Altamaha Sound IRMA is moving west at 12 mph at this present time along the northern coast of Cuba and is expected to begin turning northwest later today and then a turn to the north-northwest for tonight through Sunday ... On the forecast trajectory, the core of IRMA will continue to move near or over the Northern Coast of Cuba for this morning, and will then reach the Florida Keys by Sunday morning ... The hurricane is expected to be forecast near the Southwestern regions of Florida by Sunday afternoon ... IRMA has max sustained winds of 130 mph with higher gusts to 150 - 155 mph been recorded ... IRMA is fluctuating in strength and WILL REMAIN AN DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE and there is a slim window opportunity of her regaining a borderline 5 ... She is expected to restrengthen on her approach to the Florida Keys ... Remaining a POWERFUL HURRICANE irregardless ... Keep that in mind .... Hurricane forced winds extends outward up to 70 miles from the center of circulation, while Tropical Storm winds extend outward up to 195 miles from the center of circulation ... Latest forecast for STORM SURGE: Latest forecast on the combination of life threatening storm surges and large breaking waves will raise the water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ... SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft Suwannee River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...2 to 4 ft The combination of a life threatening STORM SURGE and the tide will cause normally dry regions near the coast to be flooded by the rising waters moving inland from the shorelines ... Ragged Island in the Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Central and Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND FORECAST: HURRICANE conditions are expected to continue to impact withing the Hurricane Warning region along the northern coast of Cuba throughout today ... Hurricane conditions will be expected in the Northwestern Bahamas for today's forecast, and in portions of Central and Southern Florida and the Florida Keys by tonight into Sunday ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Total rainfall amounts in the forecast by the computer models... Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. The eastern Florida Panhandle...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...4 to 8 inches. Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and in some mudslides. SURF FORECAST: Swells being generated by IRMA is affecting southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caico Islands and the Southeastern Coastal areas of the United States .. These swells are producing LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND SURF .. PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM THE WATERS AND AREA BEACHES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... HURRICANE JOSE: JOSE's forecast is a little weaker but still a VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AT THIS TIME... LOCATION: 17.8N 60.7W 160 MILES E of the NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 13 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 mB or 27.88" ADVISORIES FOR JOSE: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John * Antigua Jose is moving NW at 13 mph and expected to continue going northwest for the next 48 hours .. On the forecast track, the core of JOSE is expected to pass close or just to the east of the northern Leeward islands for later today .. Max sustained winds of 145 mph with higher gust and expected to flucatuate in the next 24 hours before gradual weakening begins .. Hurricane forced winds extending outward 35 miles from the center and 140 miles outward with tropical storm forced winds WIND FORECAST: Hurricane Conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning areas for today's forecast ... Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm warning regions by this morning ... Tropical Storm Conditons are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch regions in the northeastern Leeward Islands by this morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by tonight's forecast ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Expecting total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with higher isolated amounts of 8 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla .. JOSE is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica .. This will continue to increase the threat of already life threatening flash flooding and more mudslides .. STORM SURGE FORECAST: DANGEROUS STORM SURGE will raise the water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal high tide along the immediate coastal areas in the hurricane warning region .. tropical storm warning regions ... large and destructive waves are forecast ... SWELLS FORECAST: Swells from JOSE will likely affect the Leeward Islands and continue for the next 48 hours causing LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS and SURF ... PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM THE WATERS AND AREA BEACHES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATIA: (LAST ADVISORY) KATIA has now weakened to a TROPICAL DEPRESSION near the Sierra Madre Mountains and heavy rainfall is expected to continue for today's forecast ... LOCATION: 20.1N 97.7W 145 MILES S of TAMPICO, MEXICO 115 MILES WNW of VERACRUZ, MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 2 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 mB or 29.65" ADVISORIES ISSUED: ALL CANCELLED KATIA is moving slowly WSW @ 2 MPH and this general motion is expected until totally dissipating over the mountains Max sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts is there and expected to dissipate over the mountains STORM SURGE FORECAST: Expected to cease as the center dissipates ... winds subside RAINFALL FORECAST: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. SURF FORECAST: Swells generated are expected to affect portions of the coastal regions of Southeastern Mexico for today ... Life threatening rip currents and surf will be there ... STAY AWAY FROM THE WATERS and BEACHES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... INVEST SYSTEM TO WATCH CLOSELY COMING OFF WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA: We are watching closely a tropical wave that is located about several hundred miles SE of the Cabo Verde Islands that is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms ... This activity is expected to increase ... Some gradual development is a possibility in the next few days while it moves west-northwest over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic ... LOW ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 30% NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather an upper-level low pressure storm system off the Central California coastal regions that is expected to track southward to Southern California coastal regions by Sunday evening ... This system is expected to stream moisture around that upper-level low from the Gulf of California and the Pacific into the regions of the Desert Southwest and Southeastern California with showers and thunderstorms and this will also expand into the Great Basin and Central / Southern Rockies for today into Sunday evening's forecast ... A frontal boundary is onshore coming abreast for the Pacific Northwest and will track inland to being some much needed moisture in the form of rainfall over portions of the Northwest for this afternoon's forecsat .. Furthermore, upper-level energy in the Northern Plains expecting to slowly proceed into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Sunday PM ... This will produce some showers and storms over the Central and Northern Plains that will proceed into the Upper Mississippi Valley while weakening by Sunday morning ... Have a great SATURDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Pretty quiet day across the Nation for severe weather for this afternoon and evening hours ... We do have an area of interest to be concerned about ... MARGINAL RISK in place across portions of Southeastern California through South-Central and Western Arizona where they are looking at a few severe storm with some possible ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS around 40 - 60 MPH, maybe locally stronger ... Few storms of the general variety will be across the West, Very Southern Tip of Texas, across the Northeast, and of course, the storms moving in from Hurricane IRMA on the outer bands, nothing severe is expected in Florida for today's forecast .... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: THE LATEST ON THE THREE BIG STORMS WE ARE WATCHING VERY CLOSELY AS WE ALREADY KNOW! EVERYTHING IS THE LATEST from 11 AM EDT UPDATES .... HURRICANE IRMA The latest on IRMA is seeing the CORE of her moving between Central Bahamas and Northern Coast of Cuba for today's forecast ... LATEST STATS: LOCATION: 21.8N 74.7W 80 MILES NE of CABO LUCERCIA CUBA 450 MILES SE of MIAMI FLORIDA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 16 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 927 mB or 27.37" LATEST ADVISORIES: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet * North of Bonita Beach to Venice A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet * North of Bonita Beach to Anna Maria Island * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas IRMA is moving at 16 mph in a west-northwesterly motion and expected to continue for the next 24 - 36 hours and will decrease in speed as well .. A turn to the Northwest is expected by late in the day on Saturday .. On the forecast trajectory path, the eye of IRMA is expected to move near the Northern Coastal Regions of Cuba and the Central Bahamas for today's forecast and then into Saturday's .. Be near the Florida Keys and Southern Florida by Sunday Morning at earliest .. IRMA has max sustained winds of 150 mph with higher gusts to 160 - 175 mph been recorded ... IRMA is fluctuating in strength and WILL REMAIN AN DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE in the next day or so as she approaches the Florida Peninsula ... Hurricane forced winds extends outward up to 70 miles from the center of circulation, while Tropical Storm winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center of circulation ... Latest forecast for STORM SURGE: Latest forecast on the combination of life threatening storm surges and large breaking waves will raise the water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ... Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft Bonita Beach to Venice...3 to 5 ft Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 6 ft The combination of a life threatening STORM SURGE and the tide will cause normally dry regions near the coast to be flooded by the rising waters moving inland from the shorelines ... Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND FORECAST: HURRICANE conditions are occurring right now on the Turks and Caico Islands, with tropical storm and hurricane conditions ongoing in the Southeastern Bahamas ... These conditions are forecast to move into the Central Bahamas for later today ... Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning Regions in the Northern Coast of Cuba for later today and into Saturday ... Hurricane Conditions are expected in Northwestern Bahamas for tonight and into Saturday ... And in portions of Southern Florida and the Florida Keys beginning Saturday Night into early Sunday AM .... RAINFALL FORECAST: Total rainfall amounts in the forecast by the computer models... Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 2 to 4 inches. Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...additional 1 to 2 inches. Turks and Caicos...additional 3 to 6 inches. Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern Cuba...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The upper Florida Keys into southeast Florida...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Eastern Florida northward into coastal Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Lower Florida Keys...3 to 5 inches. Western Florida Peninsula into much of Georgia...South Carolina...and Western North Carolina...3 to 6 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and in some mudslides. SURF FORECAST: Swells being generated by IRMA is affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caico Islands, the Northern Coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the Southeastern United States later today or tonight ... these will CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF and RIP CURRENTS .. Be aware to STAY AWAY from the WATERS and BEACHES til further notice .... HURRICANE JOSE: JOSE's forecast is maintaining strength over the Central Atlantic ... LOCATION: 16.1N 56.2W 480 MILES ESE of the NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 16 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 mB or 28.25" ADVISORIES FOR JOSE: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius Jose is moving WNW at 16 mph and expected to slow speed in a west-northwest motion for the next 48 hours ... Forecast track of Jose expected him to be near the Northern Leeward Islands for Saturday ... Max sustained winds of 125 mph with higher gust and expected to Slightly strengthen possibly today or tonight's forecast ... Hurricane forced winds extending outward 35 miles from the center and 115 miles outward with tropical storm forced winds WIND FORECAST: Hurricane Conditions are possible in the hurricane watch region on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning region by Saturday AM .. Tropical storm conditions are possible later today or tonight ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Expecting total accumulations of 2 to 6 with isolated up to 10 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla ... SWELLS FORECAST: Swells from JOSE will likely affect the Leeward Islands by later today causing LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS and SURF ... HURRICANE KATIA: KATIA latest will be investigated by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters ... LOCATION: 21.1N 95.6W 165 MILES ESE of TAMPICO, MEXICO 140 MILES NNE of VERACRUZ, MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 3 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 mB or 28.85" ADVISORIES ISSUED: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco * South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz KATIA is moving slowly WSW @ 3 MPH and this general motion is expected until landfall on Early Saturday AM in the Hurricane Warning region .. Max sustained winds of 90 mph with higher gusts is there and expected to strengthen to NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE by landfall ... Hurricane Forced Winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center of circulation .. Tropical Storm forced winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center ... STORM SURGE FORECAST: We are expecting water levels to raise up 5 to 7 feet above normal tide stages near and to the north of where Katia will make landfall ... Surge will be destructive ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Expecting forecast totals of 10 - 15 inches in areas of Northern Veracruz to eastern Hidalgo, Pubela, and San Luis Potosi ... Katia could produce totals of 2 to 5 inches around southern Tamaulipas, central Sat Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday PM ... Isolated amounts of 25 inches possible in northern Veracruz and eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi .. Serious life threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected ... WIND FORECAST: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the warning region by Friday night into early Saturday ... Tropical Storm conditions expected in the warning region by late today ... SURF FORECAST: Swells generated are expected to affect portions of the coastal regions of Southeastern Mexico for today ... Life threatening rip currents and surf will be there ... STAY AWAY FROM THE WATERS and BEACHES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the old cold front is slowly moving northward into the Northern portions of the Florida peninsula ..Tropical moisture will intersect with this to produce showers and storms ... IRMA on the way as well ... Deep upper-level trough across the Northeast and Great Lakes is aiding in producing showers and storms over portions of that region through Saturday ... Circulation around and upper-level low around the Central California Coastal Region is bringing moisture feed from Gulf of California and the Pacific into the Desert Southwest and Southeastern California and then proceeding into the Rockeis for mid weekend .. Good news there ... Finally, some upper level energy is moving into Pacific Northwest followed by a frontal boundary for the weekend bringing some much needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Intermountain Regions and Northern Rockies through Saturday to aid in the fight of the wildfires up there ... Another region of upper-level energy will proceed into the Northern Plains for the weekend and that will produce showers and storms for the Northern and Central Plains through Saturday ... Have a great FRIDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF National Lead Forecaster / National Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's forecast for severe weather showing a MARGINAL RISK for some strong to possibly a couple severe storms with GUSTY WINDS and SMALL HAIL as a good possibly for the threat for this afternoon and early evening across Northern California and Western Oregon ... Otherwise, general storms in some portions of the Nation ... Pretty much quiet! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: THE LATEST ON THE THREE BIG STORMS WE ARE WATCHING VERY CLOSELY AS WE ALREADY KNOW! EVERYTHING IS THE LATEST from 11 AM EDT UPDATES .... HURRICANE IRMA EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IRMA IS HEADING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICO ISLANDS .. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ... LOCATION: 20.4N 69.7W 75 MILES ENE of PUERTO PLATA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 120 MILES SE of GRAND TURKS ISLAND MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 16 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 921 mB or 27.20" ADVISORIES OUT: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province IRMA is located about 125 miles to the ENE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic or 120 miles SE of Grand Turk Island ... Moving to the west- northwest at 16 mph ... IRMA has max sustained winds of 175 mph with higher gusts to 210 - 215 mph been recorded ... IRMA is fluctuating in strength and WILL REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE in the next day or so ... We could see a downgrade to a DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 OR REMAIN A DANGEROUS and CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ... IRMA moving towards the west-northwest at 17 mph and will be on the general motion trend this way for the next 48 hours with some slowing of her forward speed as well ... The EYE of IRMA will be moving just to the North of Hispaniola for today, be near by the Turks and Caico and Southeastern Bahamas by this evening, then be near the Central Bahamas by Friday morning .. Hurricane forced winds extends outward up to 60 miles from the center of circulation, while Tropical Storm winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center of circulation ... Latest forecast for STORM SURGE: Latest forecast on the combination of life threatening storm surges and large breaking waves will raise the water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ... Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today. The combination of a life threatening STORM SURGE and the tide will cause normally dry regions near the coast to be flooded by the rising waters moving inland from the shorelines ... WIND FORECAST: HURRICANE conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning region in the Dominican Republic and Haiti for today, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the next hour or so ... Hurricane conditions will expect to begin in the Warning area in the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caico later today with tropical storm conditions expected in the next several hours ... Spreading into the Central Bahamas by tonight or early Friday ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Total rainfall amounts in the forecast by the computer models... Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands... additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25 inches Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...2 to 5 inches Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF FORECAST: Swells being generated by IRMA is affecting the Northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Southeastern Bahamas, The Turks and Caico, The Northern coast of Dominican Republic, and portions of the Southeastern United States during the next several days and these will CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF and RIP CURRENTS .. Be aware to STAY AWAY from the WATERS and BEACHES til further notice .... TROPICAL STORM JOSE IS NOW GAINING UP: JOSE expected to become a MAJOR HURRICANE by Friday's forecast with HURRICANE WATCHES possibly issued for the Northern Leeward Islands ... LOCATION: 14.9N 50.6W 715 MILES E of the LESSER ANTILLES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 18 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 mB or 29.12" NEW ADVISORIES FOR JOSE: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius Jose is moving WNW at 17 mph and expected some strengthening in the next 48 hours and expected to be a HURRICANE this afternoon ... and will be moving west to west-northwest in the next 48 hours with a slight decrease in forward speed in the next 48 hours ... Max sustained winds of 90 mph with higher gust and expected to strengthening into MAJOR HURRICANE by Friday ... Hurricane forced winds extending outward 15 miles from the center and 80 miles outward with tropical storm forced winds WIND FORECAST: Hurricane Conditions are possible in the WATCH region by Saturday, and Tropical Storm Conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch areas by Saturday AM ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Expecting total accumulations of 2 to 6 with isolated up to 10 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla ... SWELLS FORECAST: Swells from JOSE will likely affect the Leeward Islands by Saturday causing LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS and SURF ... TROPICAL STORM KATIA in the SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO has formed ... KATIA is moving little ways in the SW Gulf of Mexico but forecast to become a Hurricane soon ... LOCATION: 21.6N 94.6W 215 MILES E of TAMPICO, MEXICO 195 MILES NNE of VERACRUZ, MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: STATIONARY MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 mB or 28.94" NEW ADVISORIES ISSUED: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco * South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz. KATIA is STATIONARY and little overall movement is expected in the 12 - 18 hours before she speeds up and turn Southwestward and approach the coast of the warning region by late Friday into early Saturday ... Max sustained winds of 80 mph with higher gusts is there and expected to strengthen to a MAJOR HURRICANE by landfall Hurricane Forced Winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center of circulation .. Tropical Storm forced winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center ... STORM SURGE FORECAST: We are expecting water levels to raise up 5 to 7 feet above normal tide stages near and to the north of where Katia will make landfall ... Surge will be destructive ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Expecting forecast totals of 10 - 15 inches in areas of Northern Veracruz to eastern Hidalgo, Pubela, and San Luis Potosi ... Katia could produce totals of 2 to 5 inches around southern Tamaulipas, central Sat Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday PM ... Isolated amounts of 25 inches possible in northern Veracruz and eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi .. Serious life threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected ... WIND FORECAST: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the warning reigon by Friday night into early Saturday ... Tropical Storm conditions expected in the warning region by late Friday ... SURF FORECAST: Swells generated are expected to affect portions of the coastal regions of Southeastern Mexico for today ... Life threatening rip currents and surf will be there ... STAY AWAY FROM THE WATERS and BEACHES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the slow progressive cold frontal boundary persuing for the Eastern Seaboard with showers and storms forecast to develop through the weekend .. Florida will be under the gun as I pointed up above ... The well above normal temperatures across the Western states will continue to moderate as the upper level trough finally moves in with low pressure approaching the Pacific Northwest .. Elevated Fire Threat continues to persist in th region of the PacifiC Northwest and Intermountain West ... RED FLAG WARNINGS in effect ... Monsoonal moisture is streaming into the Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies where they have diurnal driven rain showers and storms ... Have a great THURSDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! State of EMERGENCY is declared in both FLORIDA and SOUTH CAROLINA ....
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK: Today's forecast for severe weather showing a SLIGHT RISK over portions of the Eastern Carolinas through Southeastern Virginia where some storms will contain the possibility of DAMAGING WINDS, a TORNADO THREAT for a couple is a possibility, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with URBANIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE and DANGEROUS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS WELL ... A MARGINAL RISK is in place over portions of the Eastern Seaboard, as well as, Northern California into Northwestern Nevada and Western Oregon ... STRONG GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH are expected with VERY HEAVY RAINFALL and FREQUENT LIGHTNING in the EASTERN SEABOARD STORMS ... THOSE OF YOU IN THE MARGINAL RISK out WEST will also see all this AND SMALL TO LARGE HAIL up to 1" in DIAMETER ... Be on alert, make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings and updated forecast ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: THE LATEST ON THE THREE BIG STORMS WE ARE WATCHING VERY CLOSELY AS WE ALREADY KNOW! EVERYTHING IS THE LATEST from 11 AM EDT UPDATES .... HURRICANE IRMA IRMA'S EYE is now on the POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CLOSING IN ON THE US and BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ... NEW ADVISORIES OUT: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince IRMA is located about 65 miles to the ESE of St. Thomas or 140 miles E of San Juan, Puerto Rico ... Moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph ... IRMA has max sustained winds of 185 mph with higher gusts to 225 mph been recorded ... IRMA is fluctuating in strength and WILL REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE in the next day or so ... We could see a downgrade to a DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ... IRMA moving towards the west-northwest at 16 mph and will be on the general motion trend this way for the next 48 hours ... The EYE of IRMA will be moving over the VIRGIN ISLANDS momentarily and will then pass near or just NORTH of Puerto Rico for this afternoon and evening hours .. Passing near or to the north of the Coast of Dominican Republic for Thursday ... Be near the Turks and Caicos to the Southeastern Bahamas by late on Thursday ... Hurricane forced winds extends outward up to 50 miles from the center of circulation, while Tropical Storm winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center of circulation ... Latest forecast for STORM SURGE: Latest forecast on the combination of life threatening storm surges and large breaking waves will raise the water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ... Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft The combination of a life threatening STORM SURGE and the tide will cause normally dry regions near the coast to be flooded by the rising waters moving inland from the shorelines ... Here is the possibility of heights above the ground if the peak surges would occur at HIGH TIDE: British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...4 to 6 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...2 to 4 ft WIND FORECAST: HURRICANE conditions will continue for today's forecast within the hurricane warning region in the Leeward Islands .. Hurricane conditions are occurring on the US and British Virgin Islans and will spread onward west to Puerto Rico later today ... Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Thursday, with Tropical Storm conditions beginning tonight ... Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caico by Thursday night ... RAINFALL FORECAST: Total rainfall amounts in the forecast by the computer models... Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF FORECAST: Swells being generated by IRMA is affecting the Northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Southeastern Bahamas, The Turks and Caico, The Northern coast of Dominican Republic, and portions of the Southeastern United States during the next several days and these will CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF and RIP CURRENTS .. Be aware to STAY AWAY from the WATERS and BEACHES til further notice .... TROPICAL STORM JOSE IS NOW GAINING UP: 10th TROPICAL SYSTEM of the SEASON named in the OPEN ATLANTIC Tropical Storm JOSE ...CLOSE TO HURRICANE STATUS LOCATION: 13.1N 44.5W 1135 MILES E of the LESSER ANTILLES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 17 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 mB or 29.47" Jose is moving WNW at 17 mph and expected some strengthening in the next 48 hours and expected to be a HURRICANE this afternoon ... and will be moving west to west-northwest in the next 48 hours with a slightly faster speed ... Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend over 60 miles form the center of circulation ... TROPICAL STORM KATIA in the SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO has formed ... KATIA is moving little ways in the SW Gulf of Mexico but forecast to become a Hurricane soon ... LOCATION: 21.7N 95.9W 135 MILES ESE of TAMPICO, MEXICO 175 MILES N of VERACRUZ, MEXICO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: ESE @ 5 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 mB or 29.65" KATIA is moving ESE at 5 mph and expected to continue a very slow movement in the next 24 to 36 hours ... Max sustained winds of 45 mph with higher gusts and could become a HURRICANE before approaching the coast of VERACRUZ in the next 48 hours ... Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center of circulation RAINFALL forecast is up to 5 - 10 for the areas around VERACRUZ with 2-5" over Southern Tamaulipas, Northeastern Pubela, and Southern Veracruz through Saturday Morning, isolated to 15 inches is a possibility in causing life threatening flash flooding and mudslides ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the cold frontal boundary persuing for the Eastern Seaboard with intense rainfall in the forecast from NJ to ME ... Increasing the risk for flash flooding ... There is an upper level system behind the frontal boundary that will keep the showers and cooler weather conditions in the Great Lakes through the next couple of days ... Cooler weather prevailing for the weekend before a gradual warm up begins ... WATERSPOUT OUTBREAK is in motion on the Great Lakes, be aware of this factor ... Strong, upper level ridging in the Western areas of the Nation will keep the temperatures well above normal up to 15 degrees in places across the Pacific Northwest ... HEAT ADVISORIES and RED FLAG WARNINGS are posted with AIR QUALITY ALERTS as well ... Majority of the Pacific Northwest will remain relatively dry but some monsoonal moisture could pull up there to bring some diurnally driven rain showers and thunderstorms to the region ... By Tomorrow, a system is driving towards the Central California coastal regions and could increase much needed moisture transport across the Central West Coast and could help moderate the temperatures to more tolerable levels ... Have a wonderful Wednesday and Please Remember, TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer |