Morning Edition of the National Storm Channel
FRIDAY, APRIL 27TH, 2018 Assistant Forecaster / Social Media Coordinator David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK: FRIDAY 4/27: The upper-level pattern is forecast to begin a synoptic, upper-level trough continuing to dominate the eastern half of the Nation, a ridge over the Intermountain West and a closed low over the Pacific Northwest continuing to dominate the forecast ... This will bring more isolated strong to severe storms for the Intermountain West ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a MARGINAL RISK for severe storms for Friday and Friday Night across portions of Eastern Oregon and into portions of Southwestern Idaho where the MAIN THREAT is ISOLATED, LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH. DAY 3 through DAY 6 (4/30-5/3) Talking with a few colleagues and meteorologists over the situation unfolding .. Severe Weather season has been on a hiatus is now finally awakening with multiple days of threats ahead ... DAY 3 (4/30): Models pointing out to a major upper-level disturbance out of the West Coast late in the day will have a southerly broad flow over the region highlighted in the graphic ... Boundary layer moisture is a bit unimpressive at this time with some strong capping being shown on the Skew-T and hodographs over portions of the Southern High Plains and Southern Plains .. Threats are appearing to show favorable ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS bring the primary threat along with ISOLATED LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL. DAY 4 (5/1): This is when things really ramp up as we see some mid to upper level flow continues to strengthen in the ongoing feature with the low level wind fields showing on the latest mid range GFS and EUROPEAN models ... With the large ridge over southeastern Atlantic visible, this is allowing for a return robusting low-level moisture flow to return with the boundary layer continuing to strengthen .. Gulf of Mexico rich moist and unstable flow combining with favorable wind shears on the profiles are supporting the forecast for favorable convective severe thunderstorms and supercells ... Here is the issue our team noticed, there is a mixed layer "Capping" inversion showing up and it is a strong one with the mid level temperatures there ... If storms would appear to fire up along and ahead of the dryline, we got problems! Capable of SEVERE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, and a GOOD SHOT OF A COUPLE TORNADOES with the low level winds favoring conditions in the evening hours. DAY 5 (5/2): This is the concerning day for the team as we are seeing some alarming features on the long term modes on both the GFS and EUROPEAN as a much strong vorticity maxima is being the main feature in the Southern Plains for the late afternoon and evening hours with a lot of daytime heating in place ... There are certain outcomes that could result from all the features we are watching closely ... The alarm is there for a SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT as the Storm Prediction Center has already hinted with a 30% outlook on the region .. There is a strengthening wind shear feature along with a slow-progressive trough in place with deep boundary layer moisture intact .. There is the moisture channel allowing rich, deep moist and very unstable Gulf of Mexico flow supporting some serious severe thunderstorms and potentially strong supercells that could favor some SEVERE HAIL, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, and FEW TORNADOES where a COUPLE COULD BECOME STRONG and SIGNIFICANT ... COULD is the key word .. This forecast will need more fine tuning as we are just several days away and could change .. This is the most significant day of the severe weather event we need to keep a very close eye upon. DAY 6 (5/3): This day has some watching to do as the long term guidance suggesting the upper-level trough has slowed and waned a bit compared to recent runs in the past few days ... Another potential possibility of widespread severe weather does appear to be a notion and the axis of severe weather is expanding as well from Northeastern Texas all the way through the Missouri and Western Ohio Valleys to possibly the Lower Great Lakes .. This appears to be unclear, however, we will say the appearance of all hazards are possible. When Severe Weather is forecast for your region, Be sure to have multiple sources to stay up to the latest on this severe weather potential ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO is the best essential to have on you for all the latest forecasts, statements, and weather alerts at the touch of a button from the National Weather Service ... Also, on your smartphones, you can follow the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service OR your favorite local weather team app. BE ON ALERT and REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a very slow-progressive weather system off coming off the Pacific into the West Coast for today and bringing along with it much cooler temperatures and a threat for rainfall through the first half of the weekend with the West Coast and especially the Pacific Northwest ... This milder weather initially in place will be displaced into the High Plains for the second half of the weekend .. Daytime readings will be as much as 25 degrees above late April to early May standards in the Plains .. Showers and storms will be expected in Saturday's outlook across the central and southern Rockies into the southern High Plains as some moisture begins to build up to the north ahead of the system for late on Saturday into Sunday. An area of low pressure progressing through the Mid-Atlantic States and New England is expected to spread thick cloudiness and moderate to heavy rainfall northeast throughout the region over the next couple of days .. This system coupled with the arrival of a fairly strong cold frontal boundary from the Midwest and Great Lakes will allow for cooler than normal temperatures with daytime highs generally below late April standards across the majority of the Eastern portions of the Nation going through the weekend .. The coldest readings will be favorable across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as highs will be as much as 20 degrees below late April standards .. Record lows with frost and freeze conditions are possible by Sunday AM across portions of the Midwest and the lower Ohio Valley within the chilly airmass. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Chief Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer
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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
MONDAY 4/16: NO SEVERE WEATHER is forecast across the Nation on this Monday ... Although, a few generalize thunderstorms of the non-severe variety is a good possibility across portions of the West Coast up into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies ... Another region of potential storms ahead of the cold frontal boundary is possible across the Northern Mid-Atlantic into the New England states ... FRIDAY 4/21: We are looking at a potential threat for some severe weather and beneficial, much needed rainfall across the Southwest and Southern High Plains ... There is a storm system that will bring some modified moisture from a strong trough that will develop out of the Southwest ... A dryline will help initate some weak convention on Friday with hope of a upper level trough influence that takes over the region of Western Texas ... If we can get some high-level flow into the atmosphere over the region, this could evolve into a severe weather threat ... There are some uncertainities in the forecast, so we will keep you all informed on the latest developments. When Severe Weather is forecast for your region, Be sure to have multiple sources to stay up to the latest on this severe weather potential ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO is the best essential to have on you for all the latest forecasts, statements, and weather alerts at the touch of a button from the National Weather Service ... Also, on your smartphones, you can follow the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service OR your favorite local weather team app. BE ON ALERT and REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has that stubborn, slow progressive, and yet strong, mid-April low pressure system responsible for all the severe weather and record-breaking winter weather from the southern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic will progressively affect the Northeast and New England for today ... Heavy rainfall in the forecast to increase in threat across the Northeast for this morning as this system progresses northward .. For the afternoon hours, expecting the heavier rainfall amounts to extend into New England .. In addition, to the rain shield, pockets of freezing rain is a good possibility to develop especially across interior New England where temperatures will hold a few degrees below freezing to the freezing mark with a warm low-level mass allowing the precipitation to change to rain before hitting the colder surface ... Majority of this activity will be waned by Tuesday PM; however, some lingering isolated showers and snow showers could threaten the lower Great Lakes and interior New England through Wednesday AM. A closed, upper-level low pressure storm system off the Pacific is progressing inland across the West Coast and inland regions ... At the surface, expecting a frontal boundary to progressively affect the Great Basin and the Intermountain West for today .. Precipitation in the forecast to affect areas from the Pacific Northwest to central California and going eastward into the Rockies for today ... Higher elevation snowfall in the forecast for the Cascades and Sierra Nevada Mountains in addition to the spread into the central and northern Rockies .. By Tuesday, expecting this upper-level trough situated over the majority of the Western states to shift eastward and bring the precipitation across the High Plains into the central and northern Plains .. However, some lingering effect of rain showers and higher elevation snow showers are still in the forecast across the Cascades and central/northern Rockies ... As this trough ejects from the Rockies to the Plains, expect snowfall to develop across the central and northern Plains as another potential winter storm with some good accumulations expected and this will intensfy as it progresses for the Upper Mississippi Valley for late on Wednesday. Finally, we are noticing the temperatures beginning to drop below normal for mid-April standards along the East and West Coastal Regions of the Nation for today and Tuesday's outlook .. However, we are seeing above average for mid-April standards across the Southwest to the northern Plains for today and shifting on into the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, with these temperatures in the Plains, relative humidity will be very low and strong winds will continue to threaten leading to a CRITICAL EXTREME FIRE DANGER across the Plains and Southwest which is DANGEROUS and LIFE THREATENING, so PLEASE ABIDE BY THE RED FLAG WARNINGS in place and check local conditions and fire bans in your community. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Chief Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY 4/13: We are watching an expansive, deepening mid-level trough amplifying across the central Great Plains for today's outlook, there is a very powerful and strong mid-level jet streak above 100 kts that developing across Oklahoma into western Missouri by early in the morning on Saturday ... This surface low cyclone along north-central Kansas into south-central Nebraska is slowly-progressing to the east into Iowa and Missouri border by this evening .. This is setting stage up for a sharp warm frontal boundary that is expected to surge into southern Iowa with a dryline extending across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas ... A cold frontal boundary will then be progressive across the southeast and overtake this dryline in the evening hours ... The dynamics are impressive for this system ... Dew point values will be very favorable and diurnally ahead of the dryline with elevated mixed layer and good MLCAPE values in the mid-levels of the atmosphere ... SOundings are showing mid-level height falls with confluent of a low-level flow which will allow for convection to begin development in the mid to late afternoon hours in ARKLATEX region ... There will be some isolated discrete storms along the dryline into central Arkansas for tonight ... Then, the danger part, low level hodographs soundings from this morning's runs are showing further supercell developments for tonight ... There is a good decent shot of potential several hours of numerous supercells progressive across the ARKLATEX region that will support several tornadoes and a good shot that some of these tornadoes will be strong ... We are also watching another area where the TRIPLE POINT LOW will be located in the aformentioned dry line and the warm sector being strongly capped over the mid Missouri Valley and Ozarks into Iowa, that was noted last evening on the forecast models and soundings ... Inversion cap was noted ... There is a elevated mixed layer over the region, however a larger-scale ascent is noted for this afternoon combining with moisture and cooling in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere that will foster some decent MLCAPE .. Therefore, isolated to scatteed thunderstorms are expected in the forecast to develop late this afternoon .. We also noticed a potential for splitting supercells with VERY LARGE HAIL the primary threat in Iowa, Missouri, and so forth ... Temperatures well into the 80s along with the dry air aloft will support outflow dominant supercells .. Here is the issue we have, the tornado threat is tending to become maximized in a NARROW CORRIDOR near the warm frontal boundary that should be located across Southwestern Iowa, and some of these tornadoes could become strong! This will all wane by the mid to late evening hours .... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following: MODERATE RISK for severe thunderstorms for today and tonight for Central/SOuthwestern Arkansas ... Far Northeastern Texas ... and Far Northwestern Louisiana ... METRO REGIONS of SHREVEPORT and LITTLE ROCK is in the highlighted region ... THREATS INCLUDES DAMAGING WINDS of 70 to 80 MPH, SEVERE SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE, SEVERAL TORNADOES including a FEW STRONG, LONG LIVED and LONG TRACKING TORNADOES ... PRIMARY THREAT of TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS leading to FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and GUSTY WINDS ... ENHANCED RISK for severe thunderstorms for today and tonight for Southern Iowa to Northeastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley ... METRO REGIONS of OMAHA, DES MOINES, KANSAS CITY, SPRINGFIELD MO, MEMPHIS, GREENVILLE AR, LUFKIN TX are in the risk ... THREATS INCLUDES DAMAGING WINDS of 60 to 70 MPH, LARGE TO SEVERE SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE, FEW TORNADOES with ONE or TWO becoming possible STRONG TORNADOES ... PRIMARY THREAT of TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS leading to FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and GUSTY WINDS... SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms for today and tonight for portions of the Central/Southern Plains, ARKLATEX, and portions of the Midwest and Missouri Valley ... METRO REGIONS of DES MOINES, JACKSON TN, JACKSON MS, ALEXANDRIA LA, WACO TX, DALLAS TX, TULSA OK and LINCOLN NE ... THREATS INCLUDES DAMAGING WINDS of 60 to 70 MPH, LARGE TO VERY LARGE SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE, COUPLE OF TORNADOES ... PRIMARY THREAT of TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS leading to FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and GUSTY WINDS.... MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms for today and tonight for portions of the Central/Southern Plains, ARKLATEX, and portions of the Midwest and Missouri Valley .. THREATS INCLUDES .. DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH, SMALL TO LARGE HAIL, POSSIBLE TORNADO or TWO .. PRIMARY THREAT of TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS leading to FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and GUSTY WINDS.... Be sure to have multiple sources to stay up to the latest on this severe weather potential ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO is the best essential to have on you for all the latest forecasts, statements, and weather alerts at the touch of a button from the National Weather Service ... Also, on your smartphones, you can follow the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service OR your favorite local weather team app. BE ON ALERT and REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! SATURDAY 4/14: This low pressure strengthening system will advance on eastward with a mid-level jet streak forecasting to eject out of the base of the Western portions of the Nation trough during the course of Friday ... This will induce a surface low along the I-70 corridor that will help during the peak hours of diurnal heating ... Steepest low level lapse rates and environment for strong durinal heating will reside in Illinois and Indiana for tomorrow ahead of the low .. Strong and severe convection expected to ramp up along and ahead of the cold frontal boundary in this region for early afternoon before spreading into Indiana by late in the afternoon ... There will be some convection in the Lower Mississippi Valley with a wave possible and a weak developing of a low pressure along the boundary ... Decent showing on the soundings and models trending for vertical shears and a good decent amount of surface based CAPE to support convection in a severe matters with some tornadoes possible along the frontal squall line ... Something we need to watch closely today and tonight's models ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted for following: ENHANCED RISK for severe thunderstorms for Saturday and Saturday night across portions of the mid-South into the Central Gulf Coastal Region ... METRO AREAS of NEW ORLEANS, BIRMINGHAM, MOBILE, HUNTSVILLE, and METAIRIE LA are in the risk ... THREATS INCLUDES DAMAGING WINDS of 60 to 70 MPH, LARGE TO SEVERE SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE, FEW TORNADOES ... PRIMARY THREAT of TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS leading to FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and GUSTY WINDS ... SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms for Saturday and Saturday night SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK and extending into middle Tennessee Valley ... Also, across portions of Illinois and Indiana ... METRO AREAS of NASHVILLE, BATON ROUGE, MONTGOMERY, COLUMBUS GA, and JACKSON MS are in the threat ... THREATS INCLUDES DAMAGING WINDS of 60 to 70 MPH, LARGE TO VERY LARGE SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE, COUPLE OF TORNADOES ... PRIMARY THREAT of TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS leading to FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and GUSTY WINDS.... MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms for Saturday and Saturday night from portions of the Gulf Coastal Region into the Ohio Valley ... DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH, SMALL TO LARGE HAIL, POSSIBLE TORNADO or TWO .. PRIMARY THREAT of TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS leading to FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and GUSTY WINDS.... SUNDAY 4/15: We are watching this system pulling into the Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic with significant large-scale forcing allowing for some strong, mid-level flow to form convection along and ahead of the cold frontal boundary ... Strong shears are being shown on the models to support organized updrafts, however, the activity should be mainly linear in nature for convection ... Isolated supercells are possible ... There will be a strong, sheared forced squall line that should bring DAMAGING WINDS into the Southern Mid-Atlantic with this feature ... The Storm Prediction Center highlighted the following: SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night across the Southeast .. METRO REGIONS of JACKSONVILLE, CHARLOTTE, RALEIGH, TAMPA - ST PETERSBURG ... THREATS INCLUDES ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 65 MPH ... LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL .. A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE ... PRIMARY THREAT of TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS leading to FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and GUSTY WINDS.... MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms for SUnday and Sunday night SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and extending into portions of the Middle Atlantic ... THREATS INCLUDES ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 MPH ... LARGE HAIL .. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE ... PRIMARY THREAT of TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS leading to FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and GUSTY WINDS.... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a robust and deepening storm system slowly progressing into the Central Plains bringing multiple hazards through the weekend for a large majority of regions across the Nation ... Snowfall is forecast for the majority of the central/northern High Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes as cold, moist air wraps around the central low circulation ... As this low deepens and intensfies, wind speeds are expected to increase rapidly and causing snow to be blowing and drifting .. BLIZZARD WARNINGS are in effect from northeastern Colorado to South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, with WINTER STORM WARNINGS, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, and WINTER STORM WATCHES in the surrounding areas ... Snowfall amounts forecast in the range up to 20" and locally higher "where bandings persist" in portions of South Dakota and northern Nebraska ... As this surface low progresses eastward, the axis of heavy snowfall will also shift into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Saturday ... WINTER STORM WATCHES are in effect at this time. Across the Southern Plains, a very pronounced drying and cold frontal boundary as I mentioned above will progress across the southern states ... Widespread to numerous thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary as deep, southerly flow transports northward in the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley ... There is a SLIGHT and MODERATE RISKS for excessive rainfall in the majority of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Western Mississippi ... FLASH FLOODING will be a high possibility .. By Saturday, this line of active thunderstorms will progress eastward into the Southeast and Tennessee Valley where the flash flood potential will persist. Finally, temperatures are more spring to early summerlike across the majority of the Eastern Seaboard as averages hit almost 20 degrees above mid-April standards from the Mid-Atlantic to New England ... However, this is short lived ... much colder air will infilter the region in the wake of the strong cold frontal boundary returning temperatures to late winter like in the north-central states. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, TRAPT and SEMCF Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY 4/12: NO SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated at this time for today's outlook ... However, we are looking at a few sporadic thunderstorms in the forecast across portions of the coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest ... FRIDAY 4/13: This is the day where we are going to be on the edge with the upper-level low and trough from the Gulf of Alaska that is entering into the Northwest today, will slowly progress out of the Rockies into the central and southern Plains for your Friday ... This is having a feature of a strengthening ridges flanking through this trough result in an high-altitude flow across the entire Nation. Low initally progged will lie in the central Plains and expected to be a very slow progresive shift eastward into the Missouri Valley and portions of the Midwest ... A trailing cold frontal boundary will be progressively quick rushing eastward from the central and southern Plains into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley by the end of Friday evening. This is setting up the stage for a low-level return flow from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the feature with some cooling in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere .. There is a mixed-layer CAPE region that expected to immediate evolve in the warm sector ahead of the frontal boundary from Southwestern Iowa going southward to eastern Oklahoma, and then higher instability for portions of eastern Texas into western Louisiana that will spawn a ton of forcing and updraft for vigorous convection to form ... Expecting this to become super celluar in nature with increase flow heights supporting some rapidly intensive updrafts ... That supports severe weather and supercell developments. KEEP IN MIND, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS COULD GO MODERATE RISK .. COULD is the key word, however, the parameters have to set up in a better probabilities to allow for the upgrade .. We will keep you posted on this development potential... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following threats: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms for Friday afternoon and evening hours from Southwestern Missouri going SOUTHWARD into Northeastern Texas and Northwestern Louisiana ... METRO REGIONS OF SHREVEPORT, LITTLE ROCK, SPRINGFIELD MO, TYLER TX, and FORT SMITH AR The threat will include DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH, LARGE TO SEVERE SIZE HAIL, and a FEW TORNADOES, can't rule out an STRONG INTENSE TORNADO. More details to come in later updates. SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for Friday afternoon and evening hours SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK and extending from portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley into the Western Gulf Coast ... METRO AREAS OF MEMPHIS, KANSAS CITY, OVERLAND PARK, and TOPEKA in the risk. Threats will including DAMAGING WINDS in EXCESS OF 60 to 70 MPH, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, and a COUPLE TORNADOES. MARGINAL RISK for severe storms for Friday afternoon and evening hours SURROUNDING BOTH the ENHANCED and SLIGHT RISK that extends into CENTRAL IOWA and SOUTHERN TEXAS/WESTERN GULF COAST ... Threats include DAMAGING WINDS of 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL, and a possible brief spin up TORNADO or TWO. SATURDAY 4/14: There is going to be persistent eastward progression of this upper-level low and trough for the Central US with the trough acquiring more of neutral to slightly negative tilt with timing on the forecast models indications ... Ridging on either side of the trough is expected to prevail over the Eastern and Western portions of the Nation, though the next opportunity of a upper-level trough entering the equation in the West will occur by Sunday AM ... The occulded low at the surface is expected to slowly progree across the middle Mississippi Valley into the Midwest with timing, while a trailing cold frontal boundary from the triple point in Iowa will be progressing across the mid-South and Central Gulf Coastal states through the evening .. This will provide an axis of strong to severe storms in the advance of the frontal boundary in the warm sector ... The Storm Prediction Center highlighted an ENHANCED RISK for severe storms from Central Alabama southward to Eastern Louisiana ... Southeastern Mississippi ... The Alabama Coastal Region, and Florida Peninsula ... METRO AREAS of NEW ORLEANS, BIRMINGHAM, MONTGOMERY, MOBILE, and METAIRIE are in the threat risk ... MAIN THREATS will be DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH, LARGE TO SEVERE SIZE HAIL, and a COUPLE to a FEW TORNADOES. SLIGHT RISK has been highlighted for the Mid South going Southward into the Central Gulf Coast ... METRO REGIONS of NASHVILLE, BATON ROUGE, COLUMBUS GA, JACKSON MS, and HUNTSVILLE in the threat ... MAIN THREAT will be DAMAGING WINDS in EXCESS of 60 up to 70 mph ... LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, and a COUPLE TORNADOES ... MARGINAL RISK has been highlighted for areas SURROUNDING the SLIGHT and ENHANCED RISKS and extending northward to the Ohio Valley ... Threats include DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH ... LARGE HAIL .. AND A BRIEF TORNADO or TWO. SUNDAY 4/15: The models are having a considerable variations between one another with the eastward progression of the aforementioned cold frontal boundary to the Eastern Seaboard and Southeast ... It is having a difficult timing with the synoptic dynamics and environment for this event ... Warm sector instability is in question and the kinematic environment supporting convection ... We will keep a weather eye on this portion of the time frame for this event .... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a late season winter storm in the development over the Rockies and Intermountain West with low pressure forming over Central Wyoming for this morning, and this is the main feature headlines for the weekend ... All various types of weather is expected in the forecast ... Moderate to heavy snowfall expected for the central and northern Rockies through tonight, and then the axis spreading on eastward into the northern Plains and eventually the Upper Midwest, where WINTER STORM WATCHES and BLIZZARD WARNINGS in WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA as this main low forecast to progrees from Colorado into Iowa, with widespread accumulations of 6 - 12" likely across Nebraska, majority of South Dakota (locally up to 15 - 20" possible), and western Minnesota with BLIZZARD CONDITIONS a good possibility with strong winds sustained at 20 - 25 mph with higher gusts to 50 - 55 mph at times ... Another concerning matter will be the potential for some significant icing from freezing rain in an axis from southern Minnesota into northern lower Michigan which is highly unusual for this time of the year. This same storm feature will introduce heavy rainfall from eastern Texas into western Kentucky, with the potential for widespread amounts of 1 to 3" of rainfall through early Saturday ... A few locations across Louisiana and Arkansas could see over 3" locally based on local forecast and where strong bandings persist ... Be sure to read up above for the forecast for severe weather as some embedded thunderstorms will produce higher amounts forecasted due to torrential rainfall at a short duration .. Be on Alert! Finally, temperatures are expected to go well above mid-April standards across the central and eastern portions of the Nation ahead of the strong cold frontal boundary ... Widespread highs in the 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s possible ... There will be quite an impressive gradient in the temperatures across the Great Lakes into the Northeast for the weekend with temperatures barely making it above the freezing mark near the Canadian border, along with thick cloud cover and mixed wintry precipitation. HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY 4/11: We are watching that progressive pattern responsible for the weather across the Nation for today ... Departing trough off into the Atlantic which right now is over the Upper Great Lakes to Florida right now ... Ridging is taking place from far Western Texas into the High Plains will began a progression to the east .. This will allow a weak shortwave trough out of the Rockies to extend into the Plains and then expecting to proceed itself into the ridging in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley ... The bigger feature for the weather ahead for severe resides in the Gulf Of Alaska that is a very strong, large, and complex cyclone that is now offshore of the Pacific Northwest ... This has a very strong moisture channel that will be moving for the Pacific Northwest and West Coast this morning ... The trough is expected to be located right now over the Pacific Northwest bring increasing precipitation opportunities, this is the system to watch closely ... For today, there will be NO SEVERE WEATHER expected, however, some thunderstorms ISOLATED will be in the forecast across portions of the Northwest and upper Midwest. FRIDAY 4/13: This is the day where we are going to be on the edge with the upper-level low and trough from the Gulf of Alaska that is entering into the Northwest today, will slowly progress out of the Rockies into the central and southern Plains for your Friday ... This is having a feature of a strengthening ridges flanking through this trough result in an high-altitude flow across the entire Nation. Low initally progged will lie in the central Plains and expected to be a very slow progresive shift eastward into the Missouri Valley and portions of the Midwest ... A trailing cold frontal boundary will be progressively quick rushing eastward from the central and southern Plains into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley by the end of Friday evening. This is setting up the stage for a low-level return flow from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the feature with some cooling in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere .. There is a mixed-layer CAPE region that expected to immediate evolve in the warm sector ahead of the frontal boundary from Southwestern Iowa going southward to eastern Oklahoma, and then higher instability for portions of eastern Texas into western Louisiana that will spawn a ton of forcing and updraft for vigorous convection to form ... Expecting this to become super celluar in nature with increase flow heights supporting some rapidly intensive updrafts ... That supports severe weather and supercell developments. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following threats: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms for Friday afternoon and evening hours from Southwestern Missouri going SOUTHWARD into Northeastern Texas and Northwestern Louisiana ... METRO REGIONS OF SHREVEPORT, LITTLE ROCK, SPRINGFIELD MO, TYLER TX, and FORT SMITH AR The threat will include DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH, LARGE TO SEVERE SIZE HAIL, and a FEW TORNADOES, can't rule out an STRONG INTENSE TORNADO. More details to come in later updates. SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for Friday afternoon and evening hours SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK and extending from portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley into the Western Gulf Coast ... METRO AREAS OF HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, OVERLAND PARK, and PASADENA TX in the risk. Threats will including DAMAGING WINDS in EXCESS OF 60 to 70 MPH, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, and a COUPLE TORNADOES. MARGINAL RISK for severe storms for Friday afternoon and evening hours SURROUNDING BOTH the ENHANCED and SLIGHT RISK that extends into CENTRAL IOWA and SOUTHERN TEXAS ... Threats include DAMAGING WINDS of 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL, and a possible brief spin up TORNADO or TWO. SATURDAY 4/14: There is going to be some variability on Saturday's forecast from mid-range forecasting models indicating a progression of the cold frontal boundary from Friday's event into the Tennessee Valley and Central Gulf Coastal states ... The system will remain as a strong, upper-level cyclone going from neutral to negative tilt .. This feature will have the CAPE and instability with vigorous lines of convection evolving in the region ... Timing is the key to this event ... DAMAGING WINDS will be expected with this event with the frontal band of convection expected as it shifts eastward .. More details to come on this feature in the later updates. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has some precipitation potential going on across the northern edge of the low across the progression eastward from the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes by Thursday ... In the meantime, light snowfall accumulations are in the forecast as a possibility across the far northern areas of the northern Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes ... Moderate to locally heavy rainfall in the forecast and embedded thunderstorms are a good possibility across the Upper Midwest into the Northeast for Thursday and into Friday. As we mentioned above, the bigger storm is the strong, upper-level system making the progression inland across the Pacific Northwest for late tonight ... This is driving a cold frontal boundary across the Western states and will eventually spin and rapidly intensfy into a deep level cyclone across the central Plains by Friday AM ... Widespread precipitation is accompanying the system in the form of heavy snowfall to the Cascades and Sierra Nevada mountains for today ... However, by Thursday, heavy accumulating snowfall is expected to spread into the northern Rockies and northern High Plains where WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ... The snowfall shield will be forecast to spread eastward into the northern Plains and northern Mississippi Valley by Friday AM as well, with organized moderate to heavy rainfall to the south in the warm sector ... Behind the cold frontal boundary, temperatures will be WELL BELOW mid-April standards allowing the snow levels to drop across the entire Intermountain West, bringing snow showers to even portions of the lower elevation valleys. Finally, ahead of the system, temperatures are expected to be up to 25 degrees ABOVE mid-April standards across the central and southern Plains for today, spreading eastward on Thursday into the Ohio Valley ... Within the warm airmass, a dryline is setting up the stage across the Plain states with very low relative humidity and gusty winds behind the boundary in the Southwest to the High Plains .. Combined with the possibility of record-breaking warmth, this is leading to dangerous fire weather .. HIGH FIRE DANGERS and RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect for Thursday and more widespread for Friday. HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY 4/10: Today's outlook has a cold frontal boundary with a good outflow boundary associated with the feature over Northern Florida ... There is some scattered convention ongoing on Doppler Radar with the boundary with more numerous storms over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico ... If we can get some daytime heating involved with the boundary to the South, this could promote some more active convection formation for this afternoon with a east coastal sea breeze with stronger mid to upper level winds on the mid level models .. This could bring instability, however, soundings are showing rather weak features of instability which will hamper some efforts to reach severe criterias ... This set up is typical for multiple clusters of embedded convention with the possibility of some LARGE HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS in the strongest to severe cells and will diminish by early evening ... With this all in mind, The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL RISK for severe storms across portions of the Florida Peninsula for the threats of LOCALLY LARGE TO SEVERE HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH at times ... SATURDAY 4/14: We are definitely watching this feature on the mid range models of a deepening, upper-level low and trough forming out of the Plains and proceeding eastward .. However, the probabilities are showing a lot of differences between the EUROPEAN and the GLOBAL FORECAST SYNOPTIC MODELS ... The CANADIAN and UKMET are showing rather slower progression of the feature which is making this forecast quite difficult to pinpoint ... The feature is aiming for the ARKLATEX region into the mid-South with a boundary layer strengthening to cause some unstable air in the warm sector that will possibly be favorable for HAIL, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, and TORNADOES ... We will be looking into the intensity of the threat which for right now believing in the widespread of ongoing convection going for the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys extending to the Central Gulf Region ... We will keep you all posted on the latest developments. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a slow-progressive and stubborn cold frontal boundary crossing the Florida Peninsula leading to the unsettled pattern across the majority of the state for today ... The best prospect for heavy rainfall in the range of one to as much as three inches where multiple rounds are expected in the forecast by Wednesday AM could cause some flooding ... We will keep a weather eye on this for today. More rainfall is in the forecast for the West Coast all thanks to the Pacific cold frontal boundary approaching the coastal regions from Central California into the Pacific Northwest ... Snowfall is only in the forecast for the highest peaks in the mountains ... Another round of rainfall is expected on Wednesday with yet another approaching Pacific system affecting the same regions, and there will be more snowfall for the mountainous regions compared to the current feature ... valley rainfall and mountain snowfall will be expected for the interior portions of the Great Basin extending into the northern Rockies. Finally, majority of the south-central portions of the Nation will be dry through the mid-week as a cold, Canadian surface high ridge settles on southward and providing for stubborn, winterlike conditions with way below normal temperatures for mid April standards ... Moderating trends will be a feature for the remainder of the week ahead ... The opposite going on in the Desert Southwest where the heat is on! Temperatures will be forecast to approach well into the 90s with a few lower 100s expected for today and Wednesday's outlook. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L. Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has NO severe weather expected anywhere across the Lower 48 ... However, some general storms are a possibility across portions of Florida, southern Georgia, and the central High Plains, and then tonight over the Deep South Texas. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has this stubborn, nearly stationary frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast leading to the unsettled pattern across the Southeast for today, with a wave of low pressure riding this boundary developing off the Carolinas by tonight ... The best opportunities for heavy rainfall will be over the northern Florida Peninsula where multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms could produce amounts of 1 to as much locally 3" of rainfall, then another rain event likely going into Tuesday ... Some light snow showers in the forecast from the Great Lakes to the interior Northeast, but nothing significant is expected as far as accumulations go, good news there. More rainfall in the forecast for the West Coast from San Francisco to the Pacific Northwest all thanks to a Pacific cold frontal system approaching the region, with higher elevation snowfall in the highest peaks .. Another round of rainfall will be entering the equation on Wednesday as a second Pacific storm system begins to entrench the region ... Valley rainfall and higher elevation snowfall will keep the interior portions of the Great Basin and Northern Rockies unsettled. Majority of the Central portions of the Nation should remain relatively dry from today through Wednesday for the most part as a cold, Canadian surface high settles on southward and providing for more stubborn winter-like readings for highs for early to mid-April standards ... The opposite is expected for the Desert Southwest as highs approach 90s and nearly 100 degrees to start off the work week ahead. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has NO severe weather expected anywhere across the Lower 48 ... However, we do have a few ISOLATED thunderstorms in the forecast across portions of the central to northern Rockies and central to southern Florida. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has plenty of wet and unsettled weather dominating the pattern across the Western states and the Rockies, but finally starting to wane a bit for today as this upper-level low finally proceeds inland and high pressure begins to build in place at the surface ... In the meantime, up to an additional stubborn foot of snowfall could still be a possibility across the highest elevations of the Washington Cascades into the Northern Rockies .. As this surface low associated the system shifts on eastward today, the snowfall will begin development on the northern side of the low from the northern Plains into the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valleys where WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect from northeastern Montana into northern Iowa where accumulations in the forecast range of up to six inches, locally higher amounts possible, "where bandings persist". A frontal boundary is drapping across the Gulf of Mexico and is beginning to slowly proceed northward for the overnight period and into Monday's outlook ... The result of this will be widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorm along the Gulf Coast into the Southeastern states for the next few days ... Organized moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected with the embedded thunderstorms forming across northern Florida into the Coastal Carolinas as this stubborn surface low drifts slowly into the Western Atlantic by late on Monday going into early Tuesday AM. Temperature wise, upper-level troughing is expected to continue to support a relatively, unseasonable like chill for early April standards across the majority of the Nation east of the Rockies .. Temperatures from the Northern Plains into the Mississippi Valley will run to almost 35 degrees below early April standards, with record lows possible ... Meanwhile, the warmer weather will prevail across the Southwest and begin a northward push into the West Coast by Monday with the upper-level ridge building. HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY 4/6: Today's outlook is a pretty significant one as we are noticing a broad, cyclonic flow to persist over the Eastern half of the Nation as the models been indicating all week long ... There is a high-ampitude synoptic ridge over the Western portions of the Nation, while a well-defined strong shortwave disturbance and trough with embedded cyclonic characterstics been evident on Water Vapor with that moisture channel flow going from Hawaii into California ... That feature is intensfying as we speak with the strong, cyclonic flow aloft heading for the Coastal Pacific Northwest, making landfall tomorrow as the models have indicated ... That is featuring on the a subtle, shortwave trough over the Southern High Plains that is reacking the Southernmost Appalachians and Gulf Coast for this afternoon and evening hours ... This is causing some vorticity max indication on the risk ... That cold frontal boundary that is reinforcing the cold, Arctic air across the Great Lakes to Central Oklahoma is proceeding to become a quasi-stationary boundary across Northern Texas into the ARKLATEX and Mid-South by this evening ... This cold frontal boundary should reach the region as well by this evening ... HRRR models are indicating a good line of convection going across MS and AL for late this afternoon and evening with the Gulf boundary in place to provide the forcing for supercell thunderstorms with moist and unstable air in place with tons of instability setting the stage for today's outlook ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted for today and tonight an ENHANCED RISK for severe storms across portoins of North-Central/Northeastern Texas into portions of Southern Alabama ... METRO REGIONS of DALLAS, SHREVEPORT, JACKSON MS, MESQUITE TX, and TYLER TX under this risk ... SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for today and tonight is ELSEWHERE from North-Central/Eastern Texas to portions of Southern Alabama ... METRO REGIONS of FORT WORTH, ARLINGTON, PLANO TX, BATON ROUGE, and GARLAND TX in the risk ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms for today and tonight SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK ... MAIN THREATS will be DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING, DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH IN THE ENHANCED RISK, 60 MPH PLUS IN THE SLIGHT RISK, AND UP TO 60 MPH IN THE MARGINAL RISK ... LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON FACTOR .. AND YES A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL ... BE ON ALERT FOR TODAY'S FORECAST. SATURDAY 4/7: This shortwave amptitude trough will proceed for the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern states to Northern Florida for tomorrow's forecast ... For that reason, The Storm Prediction Center highlights a SLIGHT RISK of severe storms for portions of the Florida Panhande into the Coastal Carolinas ... METRO REGIONS of TALLAHASSEE, SAVANNAH, CHARLESTON, WILMINGTON, and NORTH CHARLESTON in the risk ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms for portions of Central Gulf Coast into the Coastal Carolinas ... MAIN THREAT will be a few strong to severe storms containing DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL, and a COUPLE TORNADOES AS WELL ... Be sure to have multiple sources to stay up to the latest on this severe weather potential ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO is the best essential to have on you for all the latest forecasts, statements, and weather alerts at the touch of a button from the National Weather Service ... Also, on your smartphones, you can follow the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service OR your favorite local weather team app. BE ON ALERT and REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the developing low pressure system as I mentioned above going from the Southern Plains today into the South-Central portions of the Nation to the Southeast/Gulf Coast responsible for a variety of weather conditions ... An impressive, strong cold frontal boundary, once again as I mentioned above, ushering the stubborn and persisting cold, Arctic air from Central Canada making an clash with the deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico ... This causing a heavy rainfall forecast to produce flooding and severe weather from the ARKLATEX region to western Alabama ahead of the frontal boundary ... The forecast for rainfall on the HRRR and NAM models closing in on 1-3" with locally higher amounts expected by Saturday AM. The Southeastern and Southern Mid-Atlantic regions will be affected by the same feature going into Saturday as I mentioned above going eastward ... The severe weather continues with MUCH LESS favorable severe parameters than today's across the Southeast Coastal Regions, but there should be enough shear and instability to support some strong to severe storms ... Moderate to heavy rainfall in the forecast for your Saturday across the majority of Virginia and North Carolina, with some snowfall in the colder, higher elevations of the Central Appalachians. Finally, that West Coast feature I explained above with that rich, moisture channel flow from the Pacific is heading for the northern half of California into the Pacific Northwest for now through the majority of the weekend, with the potential of a few to several inches of rainfall locally in some regions ... Given the warm nature of the event, snow levels are much higher yet for this feature and even the most highest peaks of the Sierra Nevada will be rainfall for today through the weekend, before the transitioning begins in the wake of the cold frontal boundary proceeding the region late on Saturday ... Significant rainfall is forecast to persist across the majority of the state of Nevada and Great Basin with the moisture channel proceeding inland. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY 4/4: Expecting to see the cyclonic flow in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere presisting for the majority of today's outlook from the Rockies going eastward .. The strong shortwave trough with the strong low pressure wave in the Upper Great Lakes with the trailing cold frontal boundary responsibile for yesterday's severe weather in the Ohio Valley is now heading into the Mid-Atlantic and along the Eastern Seaboard ... Rich moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico will interact with the shortwave through bringing a MARGINAL ISOLATED threat for strong to severe thunderstorms for the region ... The Storm Prediction Center has SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for today over portions of the Tidewater region from Eastern North Carolina into Delmarva Peninsula .. Main Threat for DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL, and a COUPLE ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE ... PRIMARY THREAT for TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS leading to some FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, and BREEZY WINDS SUSTAINED at 20 - 25 mph with higher gusts to 50 - 60 mph possible. FRIDAY 4/6: We are watching a synoptic upper-level trough in the atmosphere developing over the eastern third of the Nation ... There is embedded feature with some low-amptitude pulses allow for some convection to develop .. There is a strong cold frontal boundary associated wit ha developing low pressure over the Southern Plains that will allow for dewpoint, instability, and a good moisture feeder from the Western Gulf of Mexico ... All this will combined for some strong to severe thunderstorms for the afternoon to evening across this region ... The Storm Prediction Center highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for portions of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and Louisania with the METRO AREAS OF DALLAS - FORT WORTH, ARLINGTON, PLANO, and GARLAND TX for possibilities of DAMAGING WINDS in excess of 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL, and a COUPLE ISOLATED TORNADOES ... MARGINAL RISK been highlighted for a good portion of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley including the METRO AREAS OF AUSTIN, OKLAHOMA CITY, LITTLE ROCK, JACKSON MS, and BEAUMONT TX where some storms will contain MARGINAL ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL TO LARGE HAIL, and a POSSIBLE BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO ... Be sure to have multiple sources to stay up to the latest on this severe weather potential ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO is the best essential to have on you for all the latest forecasts, statements, and weather alerts at the touch of a button from the National Weather Service ... Also, on your smartphones, you can follow the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service OR your favorite local weather team app. BE ON ALERT and REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the cold frontal boundary responsible for all the severe weather through the Midwest and Ohio Valley to Southeast Texas is now proceeding eastward for the Eastern Seaboard and the Mid-Atlantic as I mentioned above ... Showers and storms will stretch from the Northeast to the Central Gulf Coast for today .. The severe weather aspect is mentioned above, so take a moment, please, and read closely about the threats ... Precipitation is expected to tamper off into the Open Atlantic by this evening, with showers mainly continuing over New England and Florida ... By late tonight, all precipitation will come to an end .. In addition with the strong winds, behind the front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast; WIND ADVISORIES and HIGH WIND WARNINGS are in effect across these regions for today. Active weather will continue in the short-term outlook across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West thanks to an upper-level Pacific energy flow along with an influx of moisture bringing plenty of rain showers and higher elevation snowfall intially to the Pacific Northwest stretching into the Northern Rockies for today ... By Thursday, expecting an impressive moisture channel from the Pacific along with the frontal system approaching the Pacific Northwest to bring yet another round of precipitation -- this time extending more southward into Northern California .. Showers and higher elevation snowfall will also proceed to the south into the Central Rockies by Thursday night .. On Friday, expecting the snow showers to spread across western regions of the central and northern Plains. HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY 4/3: The system moves into Missouri Valley and Central and Southern Plains with a shortwave trough disturbance with a cold front. A rich moisture-channel flow intimate on the satellite graphics, this morning, will spawn thunderstorms associated with the frontal-wave of low pressure over the central Plains with an associated cold frontal boundary extending southwestward across northwestern OK and the Texas Panhandle while a warm frontal boundary the focus of the convective pattern will be primarily located across Central MO, Southern IL, Central IN, and East-Central KY .. This warm frontal boundary will lift into portions of IN/IL/ and OH ... It could very well move as far north as northern IN into west-central and northwestern OH putting modest amount of instability and updraft shear motions capable of supercell thunderstorms with some potential concerning threats ... We do have uncertainities as far as the current band of rainfall with stable air over the region, this morning, it wil all depend upon the timing of the retreating stable air and rainfall along with enough timing for the clouds to break up and allow for some minimal daytime heating from the sunshine .. Triple point low system is expecting to strengthen in due time as well ... Strong cold frontal boundary will usher in much colder air in the wake of the frontal system... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighed an ENHANCED RISK for severe thunderstorms across portions of the mid-South into the Ohio Valley region ... DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 - 80 MPH is a possibility, LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE, and a FEW TORNADOES .. PRIMARY RISK for DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS resulting in low-lying and poorly drained flash flooding .. FLOOD WATCHES and FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ... IT WILL BE WINDY REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION due to pressure gradients around the low ... BE ON ALERT! METRO AREAS OF INDIANAPOLIS, COLUMBUS OH, MEMPHIS, NASHVILLE, and CINCINNATI are in the enhanced risk for severe weather. SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms highlighted for outside the ENHANCED RISK and extending into Southern Texas where all threats are possible .. DAMAGING WINDS to 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL, and a COUPLE TORNADOES ... METRO AREAS OF HOUSTON, AUSTIN, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND, and TOLEDO are in the SLIGHT RISK for severe weather ... MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms highlighted for outside the SLIGHT RISK across portions of the Southern Plains .. Ozarks ... Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley .. Ohio Valley .. Southern Great Lakes and Central Appalachians ... PRIMARY THREAT will be ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH and LARGE HAIL ISOLATED ... WEDNESDAY 4/4: The upper-level trough is forecast to proceed eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with the cold frontal boundary advancing quickly through these regions ... The Storm Prediction Center highlighted a MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms across portion of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic region where mainly wind-damage ISOLATED thunderstorms will persist in this region up to 60 to 65 mph ... Be sure to have multiple sources to stay up to the latest on this severe weather potential ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO is the best essential to have on you for all the latest forecasts, statements, and weather alerts at the touch of a button from the National Weather Service ... Also, on your smartphones, you can follow the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service OR your favorite local weather team app. BE ON ALERT and REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a surface low that is strengthening as it proceeds northward and eastward from the central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes for today's outlook ... Thunderstorms are expected to fire off along the lifting warm frontal boundary as I explained above and proceed for the Ohio Valley, some of which will lead to heavy rainfall and FLASH FLOODING .. These storms are expected to continue through the majority of your Tuesday for the Ohio Valley, which is forecast to expect the majority of the heaviest rainfall amounts, and going into the Northeast ... Meanwhile, the cold frontal boundary is proceeding eastward from the triple point strengthening low as it shaprens up proceeding from the Mississippi Valley into the Western Tennessee and Ohio Valleys .. Deep southerly flow will be responsible for a copious amount of Gulf of Mexico moisture flow ahead of the frontal boundary with instability on the rise ... A line of convective thunderstorms will begin organizing along and ahead of the boundary extending across portions of western Ohio Valley into Southeastern Texas .. Some of these storms are expecting to be severe from Southwestern Ohio into Southeastern Arkansas. On Wednesday, the line of convective storms will begin bringing severe weahter potential for the New England reigon to the central Gulf Coastal Region ... The cold frontal boundary is forecast to proceed quickly out into the open Atlantic by Wednesday PM ... With very limited instability in place, these storms are NOT expecting to be severe, although, some COULD BE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE with the Marginal Risk in place from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast ... All precipitation is expected to exit the Eastern Seaboard by late on Wednesday PM with rain showers still progressive southward over Southern Florida through Thursday AM. As this surface low proceeds northward into the Great Lakes, Canadian, Arctic air is expected to sag southward ... Snowfall will begin proceeding through the northern Plains ... By this afternoon, heavy snowfall in the forecast will proceed for Upper Midwest to the Upper Great Lakes .. Apparently the forecast for Northern Michigan is calling for over a FOOT OF SNOWFALL! WINTER STORM WARNINGS and WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect across the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes ... Snowfall expecting to taper off across the Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon and ending by Wednesday evening ... However, some lake enhanced snow showers will be expected on Thursday with minor to moderate accumulations possible. Upper-level energy from the Pacific will proceed across the Pacific Northwest for late tonight into Wednesday AM as the southwesterly flow at the surface aloft expecting to increase the rainfall opportunities throughout the region ... Rainfall and higher elevation snowfall is expected in the forecast for the entire Wednesday into Thursday AM ... Snowfall will fall along the Cascades and northern Rockies for Wednesday and snowfall increasing in threat across the northern Rockies for Thursday. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
TODAY 4/2: Low pressure storm system over the central High Plains will consolidate into a well defined cyclone system over Eastern Colorado by this afternoon and proceeding eastward to Kansas by tonight ... A cold frontal boundary will be exending from the low over southeastern Kansas into Western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, with a quasi stationary boundary extending from the low east-northeastward into Southern Illinois and Ohio ... This feature is spawning a multi-day event of severe weather ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a MARGINAL RISK for severe storms for today and tonight from the Ozarks and Lower Missouri into the Lower Ohio Valley where LARGE HAIL is the primary risk factor ... TUESDAY 4/3: The system moves into Missouri Valley and Central and Southern Plains with a shortwave trough disturbance with a cold front, that will spawn thunderstorms associated with the threats of DAMAGING WINDS EXCEED 60 to 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL and a FEW TORNADOES ... AN ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT of 70 - 75 MPH WINDS are IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighed an ENHANCED RISK for severe thunderstorms across portions of Far Southeastern Missouri, Western Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Southeastern Illinois, Southern Indiana, and Far Southwestern Ohio including the metro areas of CINCINNATI, LOUISVILLE, EVANSVILLE, CLARKSVILLE TN, and BLOOMINGTON IN ... SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms highlighted for outside the ENHANCED RISK across portions of the Southern Plains ... Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley ... MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms highlighted for outside the SLIGHT RISK across portions of the Southern Plains .. Ozarks ... Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley .. Ohio Valley .. Southern Great Lakes and Central Appalachians ... WEDNESDAY 4/4: The upper-level trough is forecast to proceed eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with the cold frontal boundary advancing quickly through these regions ... The Storm Prediction Center highlighted a MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms across portion of the Eastern Seaboard and Northern Florida for marginal wind-damage as the main threat ... Be sure to have multiple sources to stay up to the latest on this severe weather potential ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO is the best essential to have on you for all the latest forecasts, statements, and weather alerts at the touch of a button from the National Weather Service ... Also, on your smartphones, you can follow the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service OR your favorite local weather team app. BE ON ALERT and REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has an early springtime snowfall event going in place across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast before advancing into New England by this afternoon ... This upper-level disturbance is associated with a system advancing through the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians expecting to exit off the Atlantic by this evening ... All precipitation is expected to be in the form of snowfall ending by tonight .. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for northern and western portions of the Mid-Atlantic northward into Southern New England. A robust, upper-level low pressure storm system is proceeding over the Pacific Northwest and will begin to proceed across the Intermountain West for today ... These regions are expecting an increase of rainfall with higher elevation snowfall throughout today's outlook ... By Tuesday, this upper level system will be proceeding eastward over the Plains ... With an Arctic airmass in place, precipitation will be in the form of snowfall proceeding into the northern High Plains and northern Plains by this afternoon's forecast while snowfall continues across the northern and central Rockies ... On Tuesday, as this upper level system proceeds eastward to the Mississippi Valley, a surface low will develop and strengthen while proceeding northward towards the Great Lakes throughout the day as snowfall north of the low will spread across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest ... By Tuesday PM, heavy snowfall along the Upper Great Lakes -- with over a foot of snowfall potential expected in northern lower Michigan ... The heavy snowfall will proceed into Canada by early Wednesday AM; however, some lingering lake enhanced snowfall will be expected over portions of the upper and lower Great Lakes ... Finally, regions along the Tennessee Valley can expected lingering rain showers and thunderstorms for today's forecast as a frontal boundary is draping across the region and will provide the focal point for convection ... As this surface low associated wit hthe heavy snowfall in the Great Lakes proceeds north and east, it will cause the frontal boundary across the Tennessee Valley to advance northward as a warm frontal boundary ... At the same time, a strong cold frontal boundary will advance from the middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley during the course of the day ... Deep southerly wind flow will bring the copious amount of Gulf of Mexico moisture ahead of the boundary while instability increases -- causing storms to fire up along and ahead of the boundary .. Some of these storms are expected to become severe ... The line of thunderstorms will stretch into southeastern Texas on Tuesday and proceed eastward with the cold frontal boundary ... By Wednesday AM's forecast expecting the precipitation to extend from New England to the Western Gulf Coast. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
No organized severe weather is expected across the lower 48 .. Some ISOLATED thunderstorms are possible for today over portions of Central Florida and portions of in and near the Ozarks ... TUESDAY, APRIL 3RD: There is an upper-level trough expected to proceed across the Great Plains with a belt of strong, mid-level flow going eastward from the base of the trough ... A cold frontal boundary is expected to proceed southeastward across the south-central portions of the Nation from east-central Texas through central Arkansas by the mid-afternoon on Tuesday ... Good decent dew point values in the low to mid 60s ahead of the frontal boundary with moderate instability in place will initate some thunderstorms with DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO or TWO can't be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms across portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley extending into the Ohio Valley ... MARGINAL RISK across portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley extending into the Ohio Valley as well ... More details to come. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has an upper-level disturbance proceeding across the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley for this Easter Sunday PM ... Cold temperatures in place will allow a narrow axis of snowfall from western Nebraska through central Illinois .. The heaviest amount of snowfall accumulations will reside in northern Missouri into western Illinois which will end by this evening ... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for these region with WINTER STORM WARNINGS in central Nebraska. With this upper-level disturbance proceeding in an easterly trajectory towards the Mid-Atlantic, the narrow axis of snowfall will follow the trajectory .. The central portions of the Ohio Valley can expect some snowfall by late tonight with heavier amounts of snowfall impacting areas in the central Appalachians .. By Monday AM, snowfall will impact the regions in the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast ... The heavier axis of the snowfall accumulations will lie from Pennsylvania into western New Jersey. A potent, Pacific upper-level low pressure will proceed into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies for your Easter Sunday ... This will likely bring an increase in rainfall and higher elevation snowfall during the course of today through Monday ... As this upper-level low proceed inland to the Intermountain West for Monday PM, the precipitation is expected to spread across the central and northern Rockies into the northern Plains .. Majority of this precipitation will be snowfall. HAVE A GREAT EASTER SUNDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
No organized severe weather is expected across the lower 48 .. NO THUNDERSTORMS are expected anywhere across the lower 48 as well. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has an upper-level disturbance swiftly proceeding across the Upper Midwest at this hour, while the frontal boundary at the surface progressive across the Upper Midwest as well .. North of low pressure, we are watching an axis of very heavy snowfall occurring currently across the Upper Midwest where snowfall rates are approaching 2-3 inches an hour in some parts of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan ... WINTER STORM WARNINGS are in effect across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest .. By this afternoon, the majority of the snowfall activity will concentrate across the Upper Great Lakes ... The snowfall will come to an end by tonight; however, some lingering lake enhanced snowfall will be expected along portions of the favored north and northwesterly snow belts. Farther to the West, higher elevation snowfall in the forecast to be a good possibility across the mountainous terrains of Wyoming and northern Colorado for today and tonight as an upper-level disturbance proceeds the region .. This disturbance is forecast to proceed into the central Plains by Easter Sunday afternoon which will cause the snowfall to proceed from the Front Range into the central Plains by the morning hours of Easter Sunday and enter the middle Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys ... By early on Monday AM, this disturbance will proceed into the Mid-Atlantic, bringing with it snow showers and rain showers to the region .. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a threat for the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley. By Easter Sunday PM, precipitation threats are increasing across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another Pacific incoming low pressure with an upper-level trough proceeds for the region ... Expecting snowfall in the higher elevations of the Cascades and Rockies along with lower elevation valley rainfall .. Snowfall is expected to spread the axis into the northern Plains while continuing across the Cascades and northern Rockies through Monday AM. HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
No organized severe weather is expected across the lower 48 .. However, we are expecting a few general isolated storms across the eastern Carolinas southward into central and northern Florida ... Also, across portions of the Northern Plains and Missouri Valley. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a strong cold frontal boundary across the Eastern Seaboard ... bringing some showers and storms there ... Majority of the thunderstorms will occur in the Southeast and portions of Florida; however, these storms ARE NOT expected to be severe ... High temperatures ahead of the frontal boundary will be up to as much as 15 degrees above late March standards ... The cold frontal boundary will proceed off the Eastern Seaboard by late this evening and in the wake, much cooler Canadian air will filter in .. These cool conditions will continue through Easter Sunday, especially in the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. An upper-level disturbance is proceeding over the northern Rockies for the overnight tonight, bringing with it higher elevation snowfall across the northern Rockies and light rain showers as the Arctic cold frontal boundary plunges on southward ... By Saturday AM, this upper-level disturbance will enter the northern Plains .. At the surface, the frontal boundary will continue proceeding across the northern Plains and intensfying overnight .. Precipitation will develop along and north of the surface low, with the majority of the precipitation falling as snow ... Heavy snowfall is expected to begin across the northern Plains by tonight and proceed into the Upper Midwest by early Saturday AM ... The surface low is expected to proceed into southeastern Canada, with snow falling along the Upper Great Lakes region .. To the south, rain showers will proceed from the middle/upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday AM and reaching the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley by Easter Sunday AM ... Light snow showers will also be in the forecast for the interior New England into the Central Appalachians for Easter Sunday AM. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster/Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has potential for some decent severe weather across the Central Gulf Coastal Region where an outflow from previous MCS has stalled out across Northwestern Alabama to Central Mississippi with the band of storm progressing eastward across Louisania in advance of a mid-level trough .. That surface wave is expecting to eject along this outflow layer across the Central Gulf Coastal Regon for this afternoon and evening ... There is the hint of some decent surface heating with some sunshine in the early hours and should push the instability into a favored zone with rich, low-level moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico .. With the vertical shear in the deep layers of the atmosphere, we can surely see some embedded organized storms and possible supercells or bowing segments that will bring some DAMAGING WINDS, a COUPLE TORNADOES, and POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL ... The threat will wane this evening as the trough and wave weakens and unstable warm air mass is replaced ... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS will lead to FLASH FLOODING THREATS in LOW LYING and POORLY DRAINED REGIONS ... The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK for today across Southeastern Louisiana into Central Alabama ... MARGINAL RISK from portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Appalachians .. Be aware and remain alert for today .. Have multiple sources to receive your forecasts, statements, and possible severe weather alerts ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO is highly advised and essential for your safety. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a complicated storm system reigning over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley that is proceeding across northeastward to the Canadian Mari times by Friday PM ... In the meantime, we can expect some rain showers and thunderstorms that will develop over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and proceeding off the Southeast Coastal Regions by Friday PM ... Rainfall will also develop over portions of the Southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley and extending the axis into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys lifting on northward then into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast by tonight ... The rainfall is expecting to end over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley by tonight as well ... Overnight Thursday, the rainfall will proceed into the Mid-Atlantic and then proceed off the majority of the Northeast Coastal Regions by Friday PM .. Some rain showers are expected to linger over portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through Friday PM before drying out. We are watching an upper-level energy wave over the Northern Rockies that is proceeding eastward to the Central and Northern Plains by tonight ... The energy wave will aid in production of snowfall over the Central and Northern Rockies through tonight ... In addition to this feature, a frontal boundary over West-Central Canada is expecting to sag southward into the Great Lakes and westward into the Northern Rockies by Friday PM ... The boundary is expecting to produce snowfall over portions of the Upper Midwest for this afternoon into Friday PM .. Additionally, Pacific onshore flow is aiding in producing some coastal rainfall over the Pacific Northwest through Friday PM. HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster/Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY 3/28: The cold frontal boundary has been reinforced by widespread overnight convention that has begun to stall out over Southeastern Texas into northern Louisiana ... A weak wave is expecting to sweep through along the front ... We are expecting embedded supercells and possible QCLS mesovortices in the line with the convective bands along and south of this quasi-stationary boundary which could very likely produce a FEW TORNADOES in today's outlook .. Mainly the threat is for LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL and LOCALLY FEW DAMAGING GUST ABOVE 60 MPH or GREATER ... TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with possible FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING will be the common threat ... The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for today and tonight across South-Central and Southeastern Texas into the ARKLAMISS region ... MARGINAL RISK been issued from Southern Texas to portions of the Mid-South ... Be on alert for today. THURSDAY 3/29: The southern stream shortwave is ejecting from the Southern Plains into the Tennessee River Valley with a confluent flow aloft .. The surface low is expecting to take the surface path of the shortwave with the adforementioned cold frontal boundary spreading showers and strong to severe storms across the Southern Plains, Southeast, and TN/OH Valleys ... THREAT WILL MAINLY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH or GREATER and a TORNADO or TWO ... The Storm Prediction Center issued a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for Thursday across the Deep South with a MARGINAL RISK across the Deep South and nearby Gulf Coastal Region. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a frontal boundary extending across the Southern Plains into the Lower Great Lakes that is expecting to become a quasi-stationary boundary ... This secondary frontal boundary will be forecast to reinforce the eastern boundary for Thursday ... Showers and storms will begin development over portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley that will proceed through Thursday AM ... On Thursday, the showers and storms will proceed into portions of the Southeast through Thursday PM ... In addition, the moisture is expecting to flow along the boundary aidiing development of rainfall along the frontal boundary from the Tennessee Valley extending the axis into the Northeast with proceeding off the coast by this afternoon and evening ... For this afternoon, rain will begin to proceed into the Northern Mid-Atlantic .. The rainfall continues along the boundary from portions of the Tennessee Valley northeastward into the Northern Mid-Atlantic through Thursday AM ... Upper-level energy is expected over the Southern High Plains continuing to flow northeastward to the Upper Ohio Valley by Thursday PM ... This energy is aiding in pulling the rainfall into the Mid Mississippi Valley by this evening and expanding the axis into the Great Lakes by Thursday AM and into the Northeast by the evening. We are watching another frontal system over the Northern Plains that is ejecting southeastward to the Mid Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains and then on eastward to the Upper Great Lakes by early Thursday AM ... This feature on the Western and Central portions of the aforementioned boundary will begin to dissipate on Thursday AM as the boundary reinforces the lead boundary over the eastern third of the Nation ... The frontal boundary is aiding producing snowfall and rainfall over portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and snowfall over portions of the Northern Rockies for this morning ... The rain and snow showers will proceed into the Upper Great Lakes by this evening and dissipating by Thursday AM ... The snowfall will proceed into the Central Rockies by this evening, and likewise, dissipating as well by Thursday AM ... A third frontal system will proceed southward out of West-Central Canada on Thursday expecting over the Northern Plains .. The frontal system will aid in producing scattered snow showers over portions of the Northern High Plains on Thursday afternoon and evening ... Additionally, onshore Pacific flow and upper-level energy is aiding on producing some coastal rainfall and higher elevation mountain snowfall over portions of Washington state for Thursday. HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
We have a multiple day event ahead for severe weather from today through Wednesday across the Southern Plains, ARKLATEX region, and into the Gulf Coastal Region ... TUESDAY 3/27: The same feature on Monday will continue well into today with the synoptic cold frontal boundary extend across east central Oklahoma to Southern Texas Plains .. convective outflows also will trigger this event ... Low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with steep lapse rates with a warm sector CAPE values favorable for some supercells to develop and vertical shear ... The main feature is deep layer flow and shear vectors contributing to bands of thunderstorms and undercutting the outflow ... Bowing segments are strongly forecast .. This will become MAINLY A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL EVENT ... A TORNADO or TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT ... This threat will take place across the Southern Plains northeastward into the ARKLATEX and the Southern Ozarks The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK through tonight from South Central Texas into the ARKLATEX ... MARGINAL RISK from West and Central Texas through Central Arkansas ... WEDNESDAY 3/28: The upper-level flow will do a split pattern over the Nation for Wednesday's outlook with the southern streamer low over New Mexico becoming a open as this proceed quickly east-northeastward and phase out ... Scattered rain showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will form portions of Southern and Eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley where the main threat will be LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH, LARGE HAIL, and a TORNADO or TWO .. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms across South/East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and a MARGINAL RISK from South/East Texas to the Tennessee River Valley. THURSDAY 3/29: Strong cyclonic flow with a large-scale trough will be over the Midwest .. There is some uncertainities involving the severe weather threat across the Gulf Coastal States with ongoing bands of storms expected earlier in the day. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather across the Deep South ... MARGINAL RISK across the Deep South and the nearby Gulf Coastal States ... Threats will be mainly DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, and a possible TORNADO or TWO. More details ahead. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook a frontal boundary extending across the Southern Plains and going northeastward to the Great Lakes becoming a quasi-stationary boundary proceeding snail slow to the Lower Great Lakes to the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast by Wednesday PM ... Moisture from the Western end of the Gulf of Mexico will stream on northward pooling along this boundary through Wednesday PM ... Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary over the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley that will expand into the Tennessee Valley overnight tonight and into portions of the Southeast/Southern Appalachians by Wednesday PM ... Rain, heavy at times, will develop along the boundary over portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley into portions of the Ohio Valley through Wednesday PM as well .. Rainfall will also extend into the Great Lakes that will proceed into the Lower Great Lakes and the Central Appalachians by this evening ... The rainfall will continue to proceed into the Northeast on Wednesday AM, ending over the Northeast by Wednesday PM ... As the rainfall proceed into the Northeast there will be a window of rain/freezing rain over the region for this morning into Wednesday AM .. In addition, on Wednesday, the rainfall will proceed into the Northern Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday PM ... Furthermore, snowfall will begin development over portions of the Central/Southern Rockies for this morning and ending overnight tonight. Meanwhile, looking at onshore Pacific flow and upper-level impulses aiding in producing rainfall and higher elevations snowfall over portions of the Pacific Northwest that will end on Wednesday AM .. Snowfall should also develop over portions of the Northern Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies for today expanding the axis into the Central Rockies by Wednesday PM ... Additionally, a frontal boundary is proceeding out of Canada, overnight tonight, will proceed southeastward into the Great Central Plains and extending into the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday PM ... The system is expecting to develop rainfall over portions of the Northern Plains overnight tonight that will mix with snow showers over portions of the Northern Plains for Wednesday PM forecast ... The rain and snow mixture will proceed into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday PM. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
We have a multiple day event ahead for severe weather from today through Wednesday across the Southern Plains, ARKLATEX region, and into the Gulf Coastal Region ... MONDAY 3/26: The continuation of severe weather will push into the Southern Plains for the afternoon and evening hours with the upper-level pattern continuing to dominate the region with a slow-moving, positive tilted trough over the West with the upper-level ridge continuing in the Eastern regions of the Nation ... Amplified shortwave embedded in the southwest flow will continue the advances in the central and southern Plains with the warm frontal boundary forecast to extend across Southeastern Oklahoma and the lower Mississippi Valley from the surface low over the Central High Plains, then the dryline forming and extending on southward from low through western Texas ... Cold frontal boundary proceeds southward through the Central Plains and merging with the dryline in Northwestern Oklahoma in the evening hours .... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for some severe storms for this afternoon and evening from Northwestern Texas into Central Oklahoma with the threat for LARGE HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS common, a TORNADO or TWO can't be ruled out as well ... MARGINAL RISK extends from Southwestern Texas to the Ozarks where the main threat is LARGE HAIL and LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL will produce some FLASH FLOODING with FLASH FLOOD WATCHES posted in a large region .. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING as well ... TUESDAY 3/27: The same feature on Monday will continue well into Tuesday with ISOLATED strong to severe thunderstorms becoming a possibility across southwestern Texas into central and northeastern Texas ... These storms will produce LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH or GREATER, and a TORNADO or TWO ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK from Southwestern through Central and Northeastern Texas ... MARGINAL RISK from portions of Southern Plains into northeastern Texas ... WEDNESDAY 3/28: Strong to severe storms are expected to be a good possibility from portions of south and southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley region where LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH OR GREATER, and a COUPLE TORNADOES .. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK from portions of south and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and a MARGINAL RISK surrounding the SLIGHT RISK ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a storm system over the Central/Southern Plains that will slowly proceed on northeastward to the Great Lakes by Tuesday PM ... This system is expected to produce snowfall over portions of the Central/Northern Rockeis northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley for today that will then wane over the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains by late tonight ... The snowfall should end over the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday afternoon as the snowfall proceeds into Southern Canada .. Rain showers and thunderstorms will develop over portions of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley that will the nexpand southwestward along and ahead of the associated dryline/frontal boundary by this evening ... Overnight Monday, the rain showers and storms will intensify with heavy rainfall at times over the Middle Mississippi Valley with FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT ... The showers and storms will be confined to Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday PM ... As the Northern half of the Central Plains and the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon will expand into portions of the Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by this evening ... The rain showers will continue to spread eastward into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Tuesday AM and into the Lower Great Lakes/Central Appalachians by Tuesday PM .. The rainfall will then end over the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, upper-level energy in a deep, upper-level trough over Southern California into the Great Basin/ Northern Rockies will begin developing into an upper-level low over the Southwest by Tuesday AM that will slowly begin to weaken by Tuesday PM ... The energy is expecting to develop snowfall over portions of the Central Rockies into the Southwest overnight Monday ... By Tuesday PM, the snow showers and lower elevation rainfall will proceed into the Central/Southern Rockies ... In addition, showers and storms will develop over the Southern High Plains on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening ... Additionally, upper-level energy is expecting to proceed over the Northwest and onshore Pacific flow will aid in producing coastal rain showers and higher elevation snow showers over the Pacific Northwest that will continue through Tuesday evening .. Snowfall will also develop over portions of the Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Rockies Monday PM into Tuesday PM. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
We have a multiple day event ahead for severe weather from today through Wednesday across the Southern Plains, ARKLATEX region, and into the Gulf Coastal Region ... SUNDAY 3/25: We are expecting to see the upper-level ridge in the Plains proceeding for the Mississippi Valley as mid-level flow remains across the Plains .. A low pressure system is expected to deepen in the region across the Central and Southern Rockies and forming a dryline out of southeastern Colorado into west-central and northwestern Texas for this afternoon late ... There is an issue with a capping inversion in place accordingly to the NAM model across central and eastern Texas, however, the models are indicating a gradually weakening trend on the capping inversion allowing for some moderate instability to proceed into the region ... As this happens, the dryline will advance through and begins some low-level convergence in the region and allow for a few thunderstorms cells tor fire up on the HRRR models just to the east of the dryline that will be located EAST of Lubbock to Altus, OK .. This could develop some supercells proceeding eastward as the evening wears on into the SLIGHT RISK region ... THREAT INCLUDES LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH or GREATER, and a COUPLE TORNADOES giving the storm relative helicities being favorable environment ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for portions of West-Central Texas, Northwestern Texas, and Southwestern Oklahoma ... MARGINAL RISK will be across a good portion of the Central and Southern Plains ... BE SURE TO BE ON ALERT, HAVE MULTIPLE SOURCES to RECEIVE YOUR WEATHER FORECASTS, STATEMENTS, and POSSIBLE WATCHES/WARNINGS ... IT IS VERY ESSENTIAL TO HAVE A NOAA WEATHER RADIO TO RECIEVE YOUR IMPORTANT WEATHER BULLETINS ... MONDAY 3/26: The continuation of severe weather will push into the Southern Plains for the afternoon and evening hours with the upper-level pattern continuing to dominate the region with a slow-moving, positive tilted trough over the West with the upper-level ridge continuing in the Eastern regions of the Nation ... Amplified shortwave embedded in the southwest flow will continue the advances in the central and southern Plains with the warm frontal boundary forecast to extend across Southeastern Oklahoma and the lower Mississippi Valley from the surface low over the Central High Plains, then the dryline forming and extending on southward from low through western Texas ... Cold frontal boundary proceeds southward through the Central Plains and merging with the dryline in Northwestern Oklahoma in the evening hours .... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for some severe storms across portions of Texas into Oklahoma ... LARGE HAIL and LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH or GREATER expected, and a TORNADO or TWO can't be ruled out on the low end ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms will be over a portion of the Southern Plains. TUESDAY 3/27: The same feature on Monday will continue well into Tuesday with ISOLATED strong to severe thunderstorms becoming a possibility across southwestern Texas into central and northwestern Texas ... These storms will produce LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH or GREATER, and a TORNADO or TWO ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK from Southwestern through Central and Northeastern Texas ... MARGINAL RISK from portions of Texas into Arkansas ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a frontal boundary in the Southeast that is extended westward into the Southern Plains that is expecting to be forecast as a quasi-stationary frontal boundary through late tonight ... The western end of this boundary is beginning a transition to a northward warm frontal boundary on Monday ... Forecast calling for showers and thunderstorms developing along the boundary from portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast with rainfall developing over portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Southern Mid-Atlantic ... These showers and thunderstorms are expecting to continue through tonight ... With the overnight, showers and storms are expecting to lift northward into portions of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday PM ... Also on Monday, expecting these showers and storms developing along and ahead of the associated boundary over the Southern Plains through Monday PM and continuing into Tuesday ... The showers and storms will slowly dissipate into the Southeast overnight Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, we are observing closely a deep, upper-level trough over the West Coast that will slowly proceed eastward into the Northern High Plains to the Southwest through Monday PM ... Snowfall will develop over portions of the Northern Plains into portions of the Northern Rockies through this morning that will slowly proceed into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley by this evening and expanding into portions of the Upper Great Lakes for Monday ... The snowfall will also develop over portions of the Northern Rockies and portions of the Great Basin by this evening that will proceed into the Central Rockies overnight into Monday PM ... Early on Monday AM, rainfall will begin development over portions of the Central Plain that is expected to expand the axis into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Western Ohio Valley through Monday PM ... Between the mix of rain and snow, a band of freezing rain and rain will develop over portions of the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley early on Monday AM into Monday PM ... In addition, coastal rainfall and higher elevation mountain snowfall will develop over portions of Northern California this morning expecting to end this evening ... By Sunday PM, coastal rainfall and higher elevation snowfall will proceed into the Pacific Northwest and continuing through Monday PM. HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
We can expect to be watching a mid-level shortwave through over the Central Rockies that will be progresses east-northeastward to the Central Plains by early tonight, downstream expecting the deep trough just off the Pacific Northwest coastal region .. Other than a few low-topped thunderstorms within the steep lapse rates, post-frontal environment near the Pacific Northwest coast, the main storm threat will be in the ejecting shortwave trough in the Central Plains ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Kanasas/Nebraska border with a MARGINAL RISK for some severe storms .. Main threat will be localized DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAIL. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a storm system over the Central and Northern High Plains that is proceeding southeastward to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys by Saturday PM ... This system will be responsible for some rainfall and higher elevation snowfall over portions of the Great Bain and into the Central and Northern Rockies along with the Northern Plains for this morning ... The snowfall and rainfall will end over portions of the Northern Rockies by this afternoon and over the Central Rockies and Great Basin by tonight .. Rainfall and snowfall will proceed into portions of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley by tonight that will continue to expand the axis southeastward into the Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians by Saturday AM into the PM ... Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Central Plains as I mentioned above by this evening and proceeding for the Middle Mississippi Valley by Saturday AM and into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday PM .. In addition, the rainfall will proceed into portions of the Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday AM into the evening hours. Meanwhile, a deep, upper-level low just off the Northwest Coastal Region will eject areas of upper-level energy into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies into portions of Northern California by Saturday PM ... This system is expecting to produce rainfall and higher elevation snowfall over portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California for this morning that will slowly expand eastward into the Northern Intermountain Region by this evening ... As the upper-level low begins to proceed inland, the snow levels are expecting to lower to near the coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest for the overnight into Saturday ... Snowfall will also begin development over portions of the Sierras overnight expanding into portions of the Northern Rockies by Saturday PM. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Amplified low pressure storm system with a flow field aloft with the Central portion of the Nation under a high pressure ridge dome will be dominated with troughs in the Eastern and Western portions of the Nation will bring that shortwave disturbance in through California for the period ... The result will be from The Storm Prediction Center a MARGINAL RISK for portions of the Central Valleys of California where a couple TORNADOES could become a possibility for today. Be on the alert and watch the weather closely. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the heavy snowfall impacting portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic into the coastal regions of New England as this nor'easter continues to slowly progress to the northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes .. The snowfall will begin to tamper off as this surface low finally pulls out from the region ... The snowfall is being confined mainly for Maine and finally coming to the end by tonight. In other weather features across the Nation, long duration of rainfall is in the forecast for central and southern California leading to areal flooding and possible mudslides and debris flow where wildfires hampered the region earlier in the year ... High risk for excessive rainfall in the region ... In addition, heavy snowfall is expected in the Sierra Nevadas where 2 - 4 feet with locally up to five feet is possible .. Precipitation finally comes to an end in the Sierra Nevadas and southern California by Friday AM .. Further to the north, coastal rain showers and mountain snowfall, heavy at times, will be in the forecast for the Pacific Northwest and spreading on into the Great Basin and Intermountain West. HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
NO severe weather is anticipated for today's outlook, only a few general storms possible in the Intermountain West and across the West Coast. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has active pattern continuing across the Nation with another nor'easter, the fourth one in three weeks impacting the Eastern Seaboard during the next couple of days ... This nor'easter is a prolonged one than the previous three with the large, upper-level cyclone currently over the Ohio Valley that will proceed eastward while interacting and intensfying a developing surface cyclone just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast .. These two features are expected to merge and rapidly deepen during the course of today off the Delmarva Peninsula as energey is taken from the cold, upper-level low to intensfy the system over relatively warmer Atlantic waters .. Rain will intially be the primary source of precipitaiton near the coastal areas with the rain/snow mix forecast to progress eastward towards the coast when the colder air from the upper-level low arrives .. As this cyclone expected to intensify rapidly just off the coast, bursts of heavy snowfall could form on the back end of the system across the northern Mid-Atlantic, spreading northward into southern New England by this evening .. Winds will also be strengthening throughout today, especially along the Eastern Seaboard where coastal flooding will become likely possible ... If this coincides with heavy snow bands, conditions could really approach blizzard criteria in portions of southern New England and the New Jersey coast .. By Thursday, the snow and winds will be impacting Coastal New England into Maine, but conditions will improve as the day progresses when the nor'easter departs into the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, the frontal system approaching California is energetic and moisture-laiden with atmospheric river in motion ... This system is forecast to interact with a large, upper-level low sagging southward from the Gulf of Alaska over the next couple of days to forecast spread unsettled weather into the majority of the Western areas of the Nation ... The heaviest rainfall is forecast for central and southern California where FLASH FLOODING is likely ... Heavy snowfall is expected for the Sierra Nevada where snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4' is likely possible with localized amounts to 5' possible ... By Friday AM, the northern edge of the shield could reach the Northern Plains with wet snow in the forecast. HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Morning Edition of the National Storm Channel
TUESDAY, MARCH 20TH, 2018 Assistant Forecaster / Social Media Coordinator David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK: TUESDAY, MARCH 20TH: With the upper level low deepening over the Southeast, the upper-level jet develops rapidly over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and this will cause the trough to proceed rapidly with a rapid cooling aloft overspreading the majority of Southern Georgia and Northern Florida ... A cold frontal boundary is progressing across the region during the course of Tuesday .. Plenty of instability will be in the atmosphere over this region ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following threats: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms persisting from the NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA to PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS .. This will include the metro regions of JACKSONVILLE, TAMPA AND ST PETERSBURG, ORLANDO, and SAVANNAH ... SLIGHT RISK for severe storms persisting from the CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA to the OUTER BANKS of NORTH CAROLINA .. This will include the metro regions of PORT SAINT LUCIE, JACKSONVILLE NC, BRADENTON FL, SARASOTA FL, and PORT CHARLOTTE FL ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms persisting from FLORIDA to PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ... This will include the metro regions of TALLAHASSEE, CAPE CORAL FL, FAYETTEVILLE NC, FORT MYERS FL, and LEHIGH ACRES FL ... THREATS INCLUDES: DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 - 70 MPH, DESTRUCTIVE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL to 3" in DIAMETER, and a FEW TORNADOES .... It is very essential and likely to need SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS and PREPARATION for this possible potentially dangerous event for this afternoon and this evening .. Please have multiple sources to receive the latest forecasts, statements, and alerts .. Try and have a NOAA Weather Radio on hand at all times to listen for all the latest with this incoming event .. If you receive a WARNING, PLEASE TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY and go to center of your home if you DO NOT have a BASEMENT .. IF YOU DO, go there and get under a table or have something to protect your body in case of immediate danger. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the majority of the coastal areas on both the Eastern Seaboard and the West Coast under a persistent, active wet pattern for the next few days with the Central regions of the Nation under a fairly mild and dry pattern ... The storm system responsible for the destructive severe weather across MS, AL, TN, and GA yesterday is now progressing across the Southern Appalachians, Southeast/Mid-Atlantic for today's outlook generating a round of rain showers and thunderstorms of a widespread variety ... Several of these complex bowline segments will have embedded supercells capable of severe weather and producing very heavy rainfall with potential for flash flooding. We also are looking at a feature of frontal boundaries and surface lows evolving through the trough over the Eastern half of the Nation with colder, Canadian air filtering in as moisture proceeds northeastward into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, this will allow for a changeover from rain to a wintry mix for this morning across portions of the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic region ... Accumulations and coverage will be increasing in nature across the Northeast as this system progresses up the coastal areas ... The greater potential for heavier snowfall accumulations at this time seems to be across the higher elevations of the Appalachians and into portions of New Jersey, the New York City metro region into Southern New England for this evening, overnight, and into the day on Wednesday. Finally, a long duration rainfall event is underway across the majority of Southern California thanks to a Pacific system proceeding inland with plenty of Pacific onshore moisture flow .. Relatively slow progression of the moisture axis is directed for this region .. The forecast is calling for several inches of heavy rainfall to the coastal regions and inland areas for today ... Given the recent wildfires, flash flooding is a big concern in the Los Angeles basin ... This could extending into the Sierra's lower elevations .. Very heavy snowfall accumulation expected above 8000' in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
MONDAY, MARCH 19TH: The Birmingham AL National Weather Service Office has highlighted LOCALLY ENHANCED RISK for severe storms ... However, given the notion of the timing of the shortwave trough will be the key critical role on how the event underfolds for your Monday ... Models are still spread out on this feature along with the potential for severe weather ... The most probable solution accordingly to the NAM, GFS, and EUROPEAN MODELS seems to say some isolated, potentially significant severe storms could become a real issue from Middle Tennessee into Northern Alabama and Georgia, depending upon how much destabilization could occur especially in Tennessee .. The forecast models has shown substantial storm coverage over the majority of Southern Georgia into northern Florida, possibly an Mesoscale Complex System, with mainly wind damage with the potential given with undirectional flow ... This is one to watch closely, and there is a potential for an upgrade to ENHANCED RISK to go along with the NWS BIRMINGHAM AL call ... There is a possibility that this could become an upgrade in portions of this region to a MODERATE RISK, however, there is uncertainities for mesoscale diagnosis tendencies, so therefore, this is definitely an event to watch very closely, For right now, The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms over MID TENNESSEE, CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA, and NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA .. This includes the cities of NASHVILLE, ATLANTA, BIRMINGHAM, HUNTSVILLE, and CHATTANOOGA ... Several Tornadoes, a few STRONG ONES are POSSIBLE, VERY LARGE to SEVERE SIZE HAIL, and DESTRUCTIVE WINDS GREATER THAN 70 MPH possible ... SLIGHT RISK for severe storms SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and extending across the majority of GEORGIA and FLORIDA PANHANDLE .. ALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS are POSSIBLE ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK ... ALL THESE STORMS will have the possibility of DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, and POSSIBLY LIKELY FLASH FLOODING. BE ON ALERT! It is very essential and likely to need SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS and PREPARATION for this possible potentially dangerous event for this afternoon and this evening .. Please have multiple sources to receive the latest forecasts, statements, and alerts .. Try and have a NOAA Weather Radio on hand at all times to listen for all the latest with this incoming event .. If you receive a WARNING, PLEASE TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY and go to center of your home if you DO NOT have a BASEMENT .. IF YOU DO, go there and get under a table or have something to protect your body in case of immediate danger. TUESDAY, MARCH 20TH: With the upper level low deepening over the Southeast, the upper-level jet develops rapidly over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and this will cause the trough to proceed rapidly with a rapid cooling aloft overspreading the majority of Southern Georgia and Northern Florida ... A cold frontal boundary is progressing across the region during the course of Tuesday .. Plenty of instability will be in the atmosphere over this region ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following threats: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms persisting across NORTHERN FLORIDA, SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA, AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA including the metro regions of JACKSONVILLE, SAVANNAH, GAINESVILLE, CHARLESTON, and SPRING HILL ... SEVERE WINDS, A FEW TORNADOES, and LARGE HAIL will accompany these storms and supercells ... SLIGHT RISK for severe storms persisting across CENTRAL FLORIDA into SOUTH CAROLINA .. ALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK are POSSIBLE ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms persisting from CENTRAL FLORIDA into SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the strong low pressure storm system proceeding out of the Central Plains into the southern Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday before it proceeds offshore of the Carolina, this system is going to deepen and begin to proceed northeast .. In the cold sector, snowfall is expected over the Central Plains and will slowly proceed for the middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday ... Along and ahead of the frontal boundary, the warm sector will have plenty of instability, moisture, and the severe weather ingredients all thanks to the surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico going northward, this is going to produce plenty of rain showers and strong to severe thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf states, eastern Tennessee Valley, and portions of the Southeast .. There is a concern for torrential downpours/heavy rainfall that will produce some flash flooding over the region ... Some light snow showers will be developing over the Central Appalachians where the cooler air will reside for Tuesday. Meanwhile, the upper-level energy wave over portions of the Northern High Plains is expected to proceed eastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday; which will begin to generate snow showers over portions of the Northern Intermountain West/Northern Rockies into portions of the Northern Plains and will then expand the axis into the Upper Mississippi Valley into Tuesday AM .. A second region of upper-level energy is just off the Pacific Northwest Coastal Regions expecting to proceed inland overnight Monday into Tuesday morning .. The onshore Pacific flow will result in coastal rain showers and higher elevation snow showers over the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday ... By Tuesday PM, the rain showers will begin over portions of California ... This upcoming event could very well lead to increasing flooding concerns for the region. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer |