SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY is causing another day of concerns for convection activities across the Central Gulf Coast to the Tennessee Valley and the Carolina Piedmont where a SLIGHT and MARGINAL RISK for strong to severe thunderstorms persist for this afternoon and evening hours ... We are looking at a couple of storms capable of STRONG GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH and FEW TORNADOES are a possibility and rain wrapped if they do form ... Keep a close eye on this activity and BE ON ALERT! Be sure to have a source for your weather information and to get your weather alerts .... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: The tropics are active in both oceans ... Going to continue to be this way for several days ahead in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY (LAST UPDATE): Flooding rainfall will continue for the majority of Far Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana with the heavy rainfall axis expected to spread northeastward throughout the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee Valley over the next 48 hours ... HARVEY is located just South of Monroe, LA with 30 mph winds with higher gusts .. FLOOD and FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS and WATCHES are out and in effect from Eastern Texas through the Lower Mississippi valley and into the Western Portions of the Tennessee Valley and the Lower Ohio Valley .. 3 - 5" of rainfall is forecast for portions of Far Eastern Arkansas, Northern Mississippi, Northeastward extension of the axis of heavy rainfall will affect Central and Western Tennessee into Southwestern Kentucky ... These rainfall will enhance the Flash Flooding Risk in these regions ... The catastrophic and life threatening flooding continues for the majority of Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur Texas and going on eastward into Southwestern Louisiana for the remainder of the week and into the weekend ... So be aware of this factor .. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAY AT ALL COSTS!!! TROPICAL STORM IRMA will be UPGRADED in the 11 AM UPDATE to HURRICANE IRMA: IRMA is strengthening rapidly into a Category 1 hurricane with max winds of 70 mph with higher gusts located 590 miles to the W of the Cabo Verde Islands .. Continues on a westerly path that will be moving more to the west and northwest for later today and tonight's outlook ... Additional strengthening is expected with IRMA and this is one to watch very closely as forecast models has IRMA going to a Category 3 status before the Leeward Islands in the Eastern Caribbean by the weekend ... Tropical Storm forced winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center of circulation ... The future forecast models has this becoming a CAT 5 possibility by the start of new work week ... Track is uncertain at this time ... This is a system to closely monitor. We are also keeping a very close eye on the SW Gulf of Mexico where a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms to the West of the Yucatan Peninsula could possibly begin to get a little more organized .. Just a keen place to watch closely ... PACIFIC BASIN: TROPICAL STORM LIDIA: LIDIA formed overnight and the center of circulation is approaching the Cabo San Lucas region in Mexico ... Conditions are beginning to deteriorate over the Southern Baja California SUR ... LIDIA is located about 45 miles SSE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico and moving NNW at 9 mph ... TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for the BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA .. PUNTA ABEROJOS to MULEGE ... TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for the PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA, FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD OF MULEGE TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES, AND THE MEXICAN MAINLAND NORTHWARD OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD ... HURRICANE WATCH is in effect for BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR from PUERTO CORTES to the EAST OF LA PAZ .. LIDIA moving NNW at this present time and will continue to do so through Friday Night's forecast ... Center of LIDIA will be near the Southern Tip of Baja California peninsula from now for the next several hours and will then move over the peninsula for Friday Night ... Some additional strengthening is expected with LIDIA for today through Friday Night's forecast ... Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center of circulation ... Rainfall forecast for the region is about 8 - 12" with isolated up to 20" possible all over the region with 3 - 6" expected in the Mexican states ... Tropical Storm Winds will be in the region of the watches and warnings as we speak through Friday Night and could reach hurricane conditions in the WATCH area by tonight. One last thing to mention will be SWELLS generated by LIDIA will cause Life threatening rip currents and heavy surf for the Baja Peninsula of Southern California and the Southwestern and Western Mexican shorelines ... Stay away from the beaches and adhere to the warnings .. Stay out of the waterways until further notice ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the continuation of a HEAT WAVE over the Western areas of the Nation ... This is in response to a persistent, upper ridge in place which will weaken briefly before re-establishing its presence ... EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS and HEAT ADVISORIES encompassing the majority of California and the Desert Southwest where forecast highs are exceeding 100 degrees which is about 10 to 15 degrees above late August standards ... The Central Great Basin and Upper Intermountain West has RED FLAG WARNINGS for wildfire danger ... Be aware of this factor ... It is expected to be the opposite across the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region as a pristine Canadian air mass settles on Southward over the region .. The strongest cold frontal boundary of the season will results in widespread 60s across the region and even 50s!!! in New England for Friday and Saturday, taste of Fall for you folks ...
0 Comments
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY continues to impact the Central Gulf Coastal Regionwith a TORNADO RISK in effect through this evening across the Lower Mississippi Valley along with STRONG GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH as well .. Very heavy rainfall with potential life-threatening flooding also continues the course of the forecast for today as well .. Boundary is in place to provide some forcing and ascent to help along with HARVEY ... SLIGHT RISK is in place through tonight for Northeastern Louisiana through portions of Western Alabama ... MARGINAL RISK surrounding the SLIGHT RISK as well ... BE ON ALERT and LISTEN to your local weather source for the latest statements, forecasts, and weather alerts ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: The tropics are active in both oceans ... Going to continue to be this way for several days ahead in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins ... TROPICAL STORM HARVEY LATEST INFORMATION: Center of HARVEY is inland further into Southwestern LA and will continue to pound extreme Southeastern Texas and Southwestern LA with flooding rainfall.. HARVEY is located 30 miles NNW of Lake Charles, LA or 75 miles SW of Alexandra, LA moving NNE @ 8 MPH ... MAX SUSTAINED WINDS of 45 mph with higher gusts .. MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE at 993 mB or 29.33" ... STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT from Holly Beach, LA to Morgan City, LA STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT from Sabine Pass, TX to W of Holly Beach, LA TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT from E of High Island, TX to Grand Isle, LA HARVEY is expected to move NNE through Thursday and then take a turn to the NE for the end of the week ahead ... The center of HARVEY will be moving through Central and SW Louisiana through tonight and then into Northeastern Louisiana into Northwestern Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday Night ... HARVEY is forecast to weaken to a TROPICAL DEPRESSION by tonight's outlook ... TROPICAL STORM WINDS extend outward up to 80 miles form the Center of Circulation ... RAINFALL forecast of 4 - 8" for Southwestern LA into Western TN and KY through Friday with isolated up to 11" possible ... Threat of heavy rainfall has CEASED in HOUSTON and GALVESTON, however, the catastrophic and life threatening flooding continues to persist in the region and extending into the Beaumont/Port Arthur reigon where RESCUE is desperately needed at this time ... DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS ... STORM SURGE continues in a 2 - 4 foot waves from Holly Beach to Morgan City, LA ... 1 - 3 feet from San Luis Pass to W of Holly Beach including Galveston Bay ... Morgan City to Grand Isle 1 - 3 feet as well .. These swells will produce life threatening RIP CURRENTS and HIGH WAVES .. PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM BEACHES and WATERWAYS until further notice ... TROPICAL STORM IRMA (RECENTLY FORMED) IRMA just recently formed this morning about 420 miles to the W of Cabo Verde Islands ... MAX SUSTAINED WINDS of 50 mph with higher gusts ... PRESENT MOVEMENT W at 13 mph ... MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE at 1004 mB or 29.65".. IRMA is expected to continue moving West through Eastern Atlantic Ocean in the next of couple of days ... Some strengthening is expected for the next 48 hours expected to forecast to become a HURRICANE by Friday ... Tropical storm forced winds extend outward 35 miles from the center of circulation .. We are also keeping a very close eye on the SW Gulf of Mexico where a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms to the West of the Yucatan Peninsula could possibly begin to get a little more organized .. Just a keen place to watch closely ... PACIFIC BASIN: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13-E New advisories have been issued on the newly formed 13-E located 260 miles SSE of the Baja Peninsula of Southern California ... MAX SUSTAINED WINDS of 35 mph with PRESENT MOVEMENT NNW @ 15 mph ... MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE at 1003 mB or 29.62" HURRICANE WATCH has been issued for BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR from PUERTO CORTES to the EAST of LA PAZ, MEXICO TROPICAL STORM WARNING has been issued for BAJA CALIFORNIA from SANTA FE to LA PAZ TROPICAL STORM WATCH has been issued for WEST of LA PAZ to LORETO and MAINLAND MEXICO from BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA to HUATABAMPITO The depression is moving NNW and a slower speed is forecast over the next couple of days ... The center of disturbance will be near the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula by late Thursday, and near or west of Baja California Sur on Friday ... MAX WINDS at 35 mph with higher gusts is expected to strengthen to a TROPICAL STORM by tonight and could become a HURRICANE by late Thursday or early Friday ... We will be watching this one very closely as well ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the continuation of a HEAT WAVE over the Western areas of the Nation ... This is in response to a persistent, upper ridge in place which will weaken briefly before re-establishing its presence ... EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS and HEAT ADVISORIES encompassing the majority of California and the Desert Southwest where forecast highs are exceeding 100 degrees which is about 10 to 15 degrees above late August standards ... The Central Great Basin and Upper Intermountain West has RED FLAG WARNINGS for wildfire danger ... Be aware of this factor ... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL will continue to come to an end over areas of southern coastal New England .. Conditions are expected to remain cooler as well for the Mississippi River Valley going Eastward ... Great Lakes and interior Northeast in the wake of the cold front will swing the highs into the 60s well into the weekend outlook ... Have a great Wednesday, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Monday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
The majority of today's severe weather forecast is in regards to two tropical system .. TROPICAL STORM HARVEY and newly formed TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN about to become TROPICAL STORM IRMA newly named system ... The eastern portions of HARVEY is posing a tornado threat through the evening from extreme Southeastern Texas through the Coastal Regions of Southern Louisiana ... TORNADO WATCH is currently in effect through 1 PM CDT through this region ... A MARGINAL TORNADO threat is developing due to TEN to about to be upgraded to IRMA in the Carolinas for this evening and overnight ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Southeastern Texas associated with TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ... Southwestern Louisiana ... THREATS includes DAMAGING WIND of 40 - 60 MPH with locally higher gusts possible, SMALL HAIL is a possibility up in the Northern Plains' SLIGHT RISK where PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL is a possibility, A FEW TORNADOES are possible especially in the Middle-Upper Texas Coastal Regions associated with TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ... TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE with FREQUENT LIGHTNING as well ... -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Southern Louisiana and Extreme Southern Texas ... DAMAGING WINDS possible of 40 - 60 mph with locally higher gusts a possibility ... FEW TORNADOES are expected in the strongest storm THEY WILL BE HEAVILY RAIN WRAPPED ... BE AWARE!!! -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the SURROUNDING REGIONS of the SLIGHT RISK across Gulf Coastal Regions ... portions of the Coastal Carolinas in regards to TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN to NEWLY FUTURE FORMING TROPICAL STORM IRMA ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, POSSIBILITY of A FEW TORNADOES and they will also be POSSIBLY RAIN WRAPPED .. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS WELL .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY HARVEY's center of circulation is about to emerging back into the Gulf of Mexico ... LIFE THREATENING and CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES over Southeastern Texas ... DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN AFFECTED AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTIECE if you are in a safe place, DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS .. As of 8 AM EDT / 7 AM CDT LOCATION: 28.6N 96.1W 25 miles NE of PORT O'CONNOR, TEXAS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: SE @ 3 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 mB or 29.44" CHANGES TO ADVISORIES HAVE OCCURRED: TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT from MESQUITE BAY to HIGH ISLAND, TEXAS CATASTROPHIC and LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is continuing in Southeastern Texas and FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES remaining in effect for portions of this region ... Interests along the Upper Texas Coastal Regions to Southwestern Louisiana needs to be monitoring the progression of HARVEY ... LATEST FORECAST TRENDS OF HURRICANE HARVEY: HARVEY is slowly crawling now going southeast at barely 3 mph ... Slow southeast motion will continue to begin on Tuesday ... The center of HARVEY is emerging off the Middle Texas Coastal Regions for today's forecast and it is expected to remain just offshore through tomorrow afternoon.. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS of 40 mph and higher gusts are ongoing ... Slight restrengthening is possible for later today and through Tuesday at latest ... TROPICAL STORM FORCED winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center of circulation ... RAINFALL FORECAST HAS CHANGE from LAST EVENING'S UPDATE: We are still looking at total rainfall accumulations of 15 to as much as 25 inches of rainfall with isolated max amounts up to 50 inches over the upper Texas Coastal Regions through Southwestern Louisiana ... This includes GALVESTON AND HOUSTON METRO REGION ... These rainfall forecast will be CATASTROPHIC and LIFE THREATENING as it been for days ... DO NOT ATTEMPT TRAVEL IN AFFECTED AREAS of SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ... STORM SURGE FORECAST has remains UNCHANGED LAST EVENING'S UPDATE: The combination of dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause the following forecast: PORT ARANSAS to MORGAN CITY, LOUISIANA including GALVESTON BAY ... 1 - 3 FEET... WINDS FORECAST and CURRENT OBSERVATIONS and FORECAST: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS are occurring in the rain bands well to the EAST of the center of HARVEY ... Including the TROPICAL STORM WARNING areas ... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS will likely persist in areas of onshore winds within the warning area during the next 48 hours ... SURF CONDITIONS OBSERVATIONS and FORECAST: The swells along the coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana coasting region and producing LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS and WAVES ... ADVISORIES posted to REMAIN OUT OF THE WATERS and BEACHES until further notice .... INVEST 92L iS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN to ABOUT TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM IRMA, NEWLY NAMED ... LOCATION: 31.0N 80.7W 135 MILES SSW of CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA 280 MILES SW of WILMINGTON, NORTH CAROLINA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH with higher gusts PRESENT MOVEMENT: STATIONARY MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 mB or 29.74" TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR: SOUTH SANTEE RIVER to DUCK ALBEMARLE SOUND PAMLICO SOUND This is a poorly defined circulation associated with a disturbance and it is moving crawlingly slow ... It is expected to be a slow and erratic motion through this afternoon, followed by an acceleration to the northeast tonight and Tuesday's forecast ... The system is expected to be along the Georgia and South Carolina coastal regions for later today ... Move along into the North Carolina Coastal Regions on Tuesday ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS of 35 mph with higher gusts .. Some strengthening is expected in the next 49 hours to become TROPICAL STORM IRMA by Tuesday AM outlooks ... Post Tropical by Tuesday Night ... 90% HIGH ODDS of this forecast confirming! Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the WATCH region by tonight and into Tuesday ... Rainfall foreast is in the total range of 3 - 6" for the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina Coastal Regions with possible isolated inland areas along the coast could see up to 9 maybe 10" max ... SURF FORECAST is showing swells by this disturbance is affecting portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coastal regions and will create LIFE THREATENING SURF and RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS .. STAY OUT OF THE WATERS and BEACHES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .... -- The national forecast will be more relaxed in other locations besides the active event in Texas with Tropical Storm HARVEY ... Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Central Plains to the Great Lakes associated with a boundary there ... Heat wave is beginning to take shape over California and Oregon for the first half of this week with temperatures in the widespread 100 plus away from the coast ... Overnight lows will be well above normal .. HEAT ADVISORIES are posted and EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS as well ... AIR QUALITY ALERTS also in effect as well ... Northeastern portions of our Nation will enjoy autumn like temperatures for the majority of the week ahead ... There will be some cooler conditions across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas where forecast temperatures as much as 15 degrees below Late August standards will be in the forecast there ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a great Monday! Always remember to PLEASE, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Sunday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
A few tornadoes still in the forecast thanks to TROPICAL STORM HARVEY parked nearly STATIONARY and these storms capable of tornadoes are across Upper Texas Coastal Plains to Southwestern Louisiana ... TORNADO WATCH is in effect for this region through 1 PM CDT ... Isolated strong to severe storms are in the forecast as well for the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Northern TX Panhandle northeast to Western Missouri ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Southeastern Texas associated with TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ... Southwestern Louisiana ... THREATS includes DAMAGING WIND of 40 - 60 MPH with locally higher gusts possible, SMALL HAIL is a possibility up in the Northern Plains' SLIGHT RISK where PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL is a possibility, A FEW TORNADOES are possible especially in the Middle-Upper Texas Coastal Regions associated with TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ... TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE with FREQUENT LIGHTNING as well ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the SURROUNDING REGIONS of the SLIGHT RISK across Western Gulf Coastal Regions ... Western Missouri to portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY HARVEY is producing record breaking catastrophic and life threatening flooding through Central and Southern Texas ... FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES are still in effect for SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ... As of 8 AM EDT / 7 AM CDT LOCATION: 29.0N 97.6W 45 miles WNW of Victoria, Texas 65 miles ESE of San Antonio, Texas MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH with HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: SSE @ 1 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 mB or 29.47" NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY LISTINGS, THE LATEST ARE: STORM SURGE WARNING -- PORT O'CONNOR to SARGENT, TEXAS TROPICAL STORM WARNING -- PORT O'CONNOR to SARGENT, TEXAS LATEST FORECAST TRENDS OF HURRICANE HARVEY: HARVEY is slowly crawling now going south-southeast at barely 1 mph ... This will continue in a slowly south-southeast to east-southeast motion over the next couple of days ... On the forecast track of HARVEY, the center is expected to remain inland or move very closely to the coastal regions of Southwestern Texas through Monday's forecast ... MAX SUSTAINED WINDS of 45 mph and higher gusts are ongoing ... Some weakening of HARVEY is expected during the next 48 hours and should DOWNGRADE to a TROPICAL DEPRESSION by tonight's forecast ... TROPICAL STORM FORCED winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center of circulation ... An NOS site near the entrance to MATAGORDA BAY recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph with a gusts to 53 mph ... RAINFALL FORECAST IS CHANGE from LAST EVENING'S UPDATE: We are still looking at total rainfall accumulations of 15 to as much as 35 inches of rainfall with isolated max amounts up to 45 - 50 inches over the middle and upper Texas Coastal Regions through mid-week ... During that same time frame, we are looking at anywhere from 5 to as much as 20 inches with isolated areas up to 20 - 25 inches in the Far Southern Texas and the Texas Hill Country into Central and Southwestern Louisiana ... This is expected likely to cause CATASTROPHIC and LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ... STORM SURGE FORECAST has IMPROVED from LAST EVENING'S UPDATE: The combination of dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause the following forecast: Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...1 to 3 ft Port O'Connor to Sargent...2 to 4 ft Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 2 ft WINDS FORECAST and CURRENT OBSERVATIONS and FORECAST: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS are continuing and occurring in the areas near the center of circulation and over portions of the TROPICAL STORM WARNING areas along the coastal regions ... These conditions are likely to continue persisting through this morning and possibly afternoon hours ... SURF CONDITIONS OBSERVATIONS and FORECAST: The swells along the coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana are starting to finally subside through late morning ... These swells are CONTINUING to cause LIFE THREATENING SURF and DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS .. Continue to monitor the forecast .. Beaches should become safe to wander by the afternoon hours ... I do expect in the next update to DOWNGRADE to a TROPICAL DEPRESSION ... INVEST 92L A enlongated area of low pressure located over northeastern Florida is producing a widespread area of disorganized rain showers and thunderstorms... This system is expected to move over the Western Atlantic later today, and has a brief opportunity to become a tropical or subtropical depression during the next day or so, before merging with a cold front ... Regardless of development, the low is expected to cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coastal areas of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia through mid-week ... Heavy rainfall is also expected to continue over portions of the Florida Peninsula during the next 24 hours ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 40% There is a tropical wave we are watching closely over Western Africa that is expected to emerge over the Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean by tonight or early Monday morning .. Environmental Conditions appear to be conducive for slow development by mid-week while the wave moves westward about 15 - 20 mph ... LOW ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT .. 20% -- The national forecast will be more relaxed in other locations besides the active event in Texas with Tropical Storm HARVEY ... Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Central Plains to the Great Lakes associated with a boundary there ... Heat wave is beginning to take shape over California and Oregon for the first half of this week with temperatures in the widespread 100 plus away from the coast ... Overnight lows will be well above normal .. HEAT ADVISORIES are posted and EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS as well ... AIR QUALITY ALERTS also in effect as well ... Northeastern portions of our Nation will enjoy autumn like temperatures for the majority of the week ahead ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Sunday! Please also remember to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Saturday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analysis, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
HURRICANE HARVEY is continuing to allow for the threat for tornadoes despite the downgrade to a Category 1 hurricane ... This tornado threat persist for the middle and upper Texas Coast .. TORNADO WATCH is still in effect for portions of Middle and Upper Texas Coast through 1 PM CDT .. There is a possibility this convection and tornado threat risk could shift into Southwestern Louisiana later this afternoon and evening hours .. Something to closely watch .. Also, in portions of the Central/Northern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley associated with a weak low and a cold frontal boundary expected thunderstorms with wind and hail threat persisting and can't rule out a brief weak tornado or two in the vicinity .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Southeastern Texas associated with HURRICANE HARVEY ... Central/Northern High Plains ... THREATS includes DAMAGING WIND of 60 - 70 MPH with locally higher gusts possible, SMALL HAIL is a possibility up in the Northern Plains' SLIGHT RISK where PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL is a possibility, A FEW TORNADOES are possible especially in the Middle-Upper Texas Coastal Regions associated with HURRICANE HARVEY ... TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE with FREQUENT LIGHTNING as well ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the SURROUNDING REGIONS of the SLIGHT RISK across Western Gulf Coastal Regions ... SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK and extending into portions of Iowa in the Central and Northern Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: HURRICANE HARVEY (CATEGORY 1) DOWNGRADED OVERNIGHT and THIS MORNING HARVEY is moving slowly over Texas producing torrential rainfall and catastrophic flooding for the next few days ... Very dangerous situation unfolding ... As of 10 PM EDT / 9 AM CDT LOCATION: 28.9N 97.3W 25 miles W of Victoria, Texas 85 miles SE of San Antonio, Texas MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 mph with higher gusts PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 6 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 mB or 29.00" A NOAA tide gauge at Port Lavaca, Texas, recently measured a water level of 5.9 feet above Mean Higher High Water. Another tide gauge at Seadrift, Texas, recently measured a water level of 5.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water. An automated weather station near Victoria, Texas, recently observed a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) with a gust to 83 mph (133 km/h). NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY LISTINGS, THE LATEST ARE: STORM SURGE WARNING -- BAFFIN BAY to HIGH ISLAND, TEXAS HURRICANE WARNING -- BAFFIN BAY to PORT O'CONNOR, TEXAS TROPICAL STORM WARNING -- NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR to HIGH ISLAND, TEXAS LATEST FORECAST TRENDS OF HURRICANE HARVEY: HARVEY forward acceleration is expected to slow down throughout the day and mender over Southeastern Texas through mid week ... MAX SUSTAINED WINDS of 80 MPH with some higher gusts are being reported near a very small near the eye of the hurricane, however, HARVEY is forecast to weaken to a TROPICAL STORM later in the day ... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS extend 35 miles from the center of circulation while TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS extend upward to 140 miles from the center of circulation ... RAINFALL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED from LAST EVENING'S UPDATE: We are still looking at total rainfall accumulations of 15 to as much as 30 inches of rainfall with isolated max amounts up to 40 - 45 inches over the middle and upper Texas Coastal Regions through mid-week ... During that same time frame, we are looking at anywhere from 5 to as much as 15 inches with isolated areas up to 20 - 25 inches in the Far Southern Texas and the Texas Hill Country into Central and Southwestern Louisiana ... This is expected likely to cause CATASTROPHIC and LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ... STORM SURGE FORECAST has IMPROVED from LAST EVENING'S UPDATE: The combination of dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause the following forecast: Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...6 to 12 ft Port O'Connor to Sargent...6 to 9 ft Sargent to Jamaica Beach...4 to 6 ft Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...3 to 6 ft Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft WINDS FORECAST and CURRENT OBSERVATIONS and FORECAST: We are seeing continuation of HURRICANE CONDITIONS inland from the coastal areas to HARVEY'S EYE WALL ... HURRICANE FORCED WINDS are still possible in the middle Texas Coastal Regions for the next several hours ... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS are occurring at this moment in other portions of the HURRICANE and TROPICAL STORM WARNING regions ... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS are expected to persist through at least SUNDAY in these regions along the coastal areas and inland around the center of circulation ... SURF CONDITIONS OBSERVATIONS and FORECAST: The swells are continuing to be a very dangerous threat along the Texas, Louisiana, and Northeastern Mexico Coastal Regions ... THEY WILL CREATE LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND SURF .. Stay out of the waters til further notice ... I do expect in the next update by 11 AM EDT / 10 AM CDT to see HARVEY forecast for DOWNGRADE to a TROPICAL STORM .. We will keep you all informed ... INVEST 92L A enlongated area of low pressure stretching across north-central Florida is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms extending across areas in Southwestern Florida northeastward into the Western Atlantic ... Although some development of this system is expected when it moves northeastward near the Southeastern regions of the Nation, it is becoming more likely that the low will merge into a frontal boundary before significant tropical or subtropical development occurs ... Regardless of this development, heavy rainfall and flooding is possible over portions of Central and Southern Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas through early next week INCREASING WINDS and ROUGH SURF IS EXPECTED ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 40% -- The forecast across the Nation beside the above statements ... We are seeing convective activities and showers along a cold frontal boundary dropping southward from the Northern Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley over the weekend to allow for some storms to develop with locally heavy rainfall and flooding potential rising ... A bigger agenda is a ridge of high prssure building across the Western areas of the Nation that will keep the conditions warm and very dry for the next few days with above normal temperatures as much as 5 - 15 degrees above Late August standards ... Keep that in mind ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Saturday! Please remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Friday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecast and Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
We are expecting tornadoes and locally damaging winds as a possibility for the forecast for today and tonight with the stronger thunderstorm supercells mainly NORTH and NORTHEAST of the center of circulation with HURRICANE HARVEY ... Otherwise, we are looking at a board area of ridging and weak flow aloft from the Southwest to the Great Basin to Floriday, within which HARVEY is becoming increasingly embedded as it moves NW towards Texas Coast ... This will deaccelerate HARVEY and will make him linger along the coastal areas for a few days ... Looking at the northern stream, there is an intense shortwave trough now over Northern Alberta, Canada that is expected to remain up there with a southeast moisture transport into the Northern Plains, that is setting up the stage for a possibility of some severe weather there for this afternoon and evening hours ... There is a weak low coming out Western Wyoming with a warm front arching to the east and then northeast of that low and that will bring the forcing and ascent along with daytime diurnal heating and instability for the convective nature of this forecast ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Middle-Upper Texas Coastal Regions due to HURRICANE HARVEY ... Eastern South Dakota .. Extreme Northern Nebraska and Southwestern Minnesota ... THREATS includes DAMAGING WIND of 60 - 70 MPH with locally higher gusts possible, SMALL HAIL is a possibility up in the Northern Plains' SLIGHT RISK where PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL is a possibility, A FEW TORNADOES are possible especially in the Middle-Upper Texas Coastal Regions associated with HURRICANE HARVEY ... TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE with FREQUENT LIGHTNING as well ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Central High Plains and portions of the Northern Rockies ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: HURRICANE HARVEY (CATEGORY 2) We are already experiencing in the outer rainbands swiping across the LOWER and MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL REGIONS ... LIFE THREATENING FLOODING is expected across Southern and Southeastern Texas ... CURRENT STATISTICS as of 10 AM CDT: LOCATION: 26.7N 96.0W 115 MILES SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI, TEXAS 120 MILES SSE OF PORT O'CONNOR, TEXAS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 10 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 947 mB OR 27.97" The Hurricane Watch south of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Sargent to High Island Texas * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico FORECAST OBSERVATION OF HARVEY: HARVEY is moving NW at 10 mph, however, the forecast in the future showing an decreasing significant acceleration for the next few days ... HARVEY is forecast for landfall on the Middle Texas Coastal Region for late tonight or early in the morning on Saturday ... HARVEY is expected then likely to mender near or just barely inland of the Middle Texas Coastal Regions throughout the weekend ... Max sustained winds of 110 mph with the NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT along with the AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT both measure higher wind gusts as well ... HARVEY is expected to strengthen more before landfall as a MAJOR HURRICANE CATEGORY 3 before it reaches the Middle Texas Coastal Regions for tonight's forecast .... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS extends about 35 miles from the center of circulation ... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS extends upward of about 140 miles from the center of circulation ... IMPRESSIVE! WHAT TO EXPECT in SOUTHERN and SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS including LOWER to MID TEXAS COAST: Rainfall forecast is very gravely concerning with the amount of tropical moisture that HARVEY is tapping from the Gulf of Mexico ... We are expecting to see widespread rainfall amounts in the 15 to 25 inches with isolated locations across the highlighted regions of about 35 inches over the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coastal Regions through NEXT WEDNESDAY! We are talking some serious life threatening situations underway ... During the same time frame, HARVEY is expecting to dump anywhere from 5 to 15 inches of rainfall throughout Far Southern Texas and the Texas Hill Country over through the Southwest and Central Louisiana through Next Wednesday! This is definitely a LIFE THREATENING FLOODING SITUATION of a CATASTROPHIC NATURE ... Folks, looking at some of the newest computer models ... I am expecting these numbers to go even higher up the scale could hit 40 - 50 inches isolated in some spots ... We are going to keep a very close eye on the rainfall totals and forecast analysis in the future updates and keep you posted ... Even bigger issue on the agenda, STORM SURGE. We are expecting a combination of some very dangerous and life threatening storm surge along with the tides ... This will definitely be flooding locations inland that is normally dry near the shoreline ... Here is the latest forecast of the surges: N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft WINDS FORECAST is expecting to see TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS currently in the HURRICANE and TROPICAL STORM WARNING REGIONS ... HURRICANE CONDITIONS are expected withing the HURRICANE WARNING REGION by later today or tonight ... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS are expected to persist through at least Sunday ... SURF FORECAST is affecting already the Texas, Louisiana, and Northeastern Mexico Coastal Region and these swells are going to be LIFE THREATENING with VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS and SURF ... STAY OUT OF THE WATER!!! INVEST 92L A trough of low pressure extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico over Central Florida is continuing to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and convective activity ... Although strong, upper level winds could hamper the tropical cyclone formation, some subtropical development is a possibility over the weekend and early next week while the system moves northeastward over the Western Atlantic before it merges with the frontal boundary ... Regardless of this development, very heavy rainfall and flooding is a high possibility over portions of Central and Southern Florida during the next few days ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 40% -- The forecast across the Nation is HARVEY and the track to the TEXAS GULF COAST ... but in other National Weather news ... In the Central Plains, we are watching a frontal system over the Northern Plains that will extend on westward into the Rockies, this will become a quasi-stationary boundary through the early half of the weekend ... Some rain showers and thunderstorms will be expected in the vicinity ... this will move on into the Upper Midwest and extending into the Central Plains for the weekend ... Eastern areas of the Nation under high pressure will enjoy fall like conditions with partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures about 15 degrees BELOW NORMAL and that will be a pretty awesome weekend for planning ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Friday! Please remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Thursday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from Our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
A large scale pattern consisting of a trough over the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes with a flat ridge over the Rockies and High Plains, with the southern fringe in a very strong mid level flow ... The prior cold frontal passage finally cleared the Eastern Seaboard, however, lingering in the Southeast and Gulf Coast where the stronger, mid level westerlies are allowing for some widespread to intense severe storms to shear off and not be made possible ... We do see a mid level trough in the Plains ejecting eastward into the Rockies that could provide enough ample support for convective activity there ... Isolated strong storms are in the forecast for portions of the Central High Plains for the afternoon and evening ... A couple isolated cells could become severe across portions of the Northern Rockies ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Central High Plains and portions of the Northern Rockies ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ... MAJOR WEATHER STORY OF THE NATION .... Harvey has quickly strengthened and could become a MAJOR HURRICANE when it approaches the Mid Texas Coastal Region and this could also produce life threatening storm surges and freshwater flooding ... LOCATION: 24.0N 93.3W 365 MILES SE of CORPUS CHRISTI, TEXAS 360 MILES SSE of PORT O'CONNOR, TEXAS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 10 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 mB or 29.00" STORM SURGE WARNING -- PORT MANSFIELD to SAN LUIS PASS, TEXAS STORM SURGE WATCH -- S of PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE .. N of SAN LUIS PASS to HIGH ISLAND, TEXAS HURRICANE WARNING -- PORT MANSFIELD to MATAGORDA, TEXAS TROPICAL STORM WARNING -- N of MATAGORDA to HIGH ISLAND, TEXAS S of PORT MANSFIELD, TEXAS to the MOUTH of the RIO GRANDE HURRICANE WATCH -- SOUTH of PORT MANSFIELD, TEXAS to the MOUTH of the RIO GRANDE TROPICAL STORM WATCH -- S of the MOUTH of the RIO GRANDE to BOCA DE CATAN, MEXICO HARVEY is moving towards the NNW at 10 mph and expected to forecast turn to towards the northwest later today, and HARVEY'S forward speed is forecast to slow down during the next 48 hours .. On the forecast track, HARVEY will approach the Mid Texas Coastal Regions on Friday, making landfall Friday night or early Saturday, and then STALL OUT in Mid Texas Coastal Region over the weekend due to TWO HIGHS on EACH SIDE of the CYCLONE, blocking progression ... Maximum Sustained Winds of 65 mph with higher gusts ... Rapid strengthening is forecast and will be expected to become a MAJOR HURRICANE before it reaches the Middle Texas Coastal Region ... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS extends 90 miles from the center of circulation ... Complication of this forecast is the rainfall amounts ... We are anticipating total rainfall accumulations of 15 - 25 inches and isolated amounts of 30 - 35 inches a possibility over the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coastal Regions through next Wednesday .. During the same time frame, HARVEY is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 - 16 inches in Far Southern Texas and the Texas Hill Country to Central Louisiana with accumulations of less than 8 inches extending into other portions of Texas and the Lower Mississippi River Valley ... Rainfall from this system WILL LIKELY cause LIFE THREATENING FLOODING .... Even complicated part of the forecast of HARVEY is STORM SURGE ... The combination of surge and high tide will cause normally dry areas near the coastal regions to certain flood by rising waters moving inland from the shorelines .. The water is expected to reach the forecast possible heights: North Entrance of Padre Island National Seashore to Sargent : 6 -11 feet Sargent to San Luis Pass: 5 - 8 feet Port Mansfield to North Entrance of Padre Island National Seashore: 5 - 8 feet San Luis Pass to High Island: 2 to 5 feet Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield: 2 to 5 feet High Island to Morgan City, Louisiana: 2 - 4 feet WIND CONDITION FORECAST with HURRICANE conditions reaching the hurricane warning regions by late Friday or Friday night, with TROPICAL STORM conditions expected to first reach the coastal regions in the HURRICANE WARNING region on Friday ... SURF CONDIITON FORECAST: Swells generated from HARVEY are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and Northeastern Mexico Coastal Regions by Friday ... These swells are expected to cause LIFE THREATENING SURF and RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ... INVEST 92L A trough of low pressure is near the Florida Peninsula continuing to produce an area of disorganized rain showers and thunderstorms extending across the Florida Peninsula, Bahamas, and adjacent waters ... Development if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it drifts northward to northeastward during the next day or two ... Some tropical or subtropical development is possible over the weekend or early next week while the system moves northeastward over the Western Atlantic before merging into the frontal boundary ... Regardless of development, very heavy rainfall and flooding is a possibility over portions of the Florida Peninsula during the next few days ... LOW ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 30% -- The forecast across the Nation is focused on that cold frontal boundary spanning from New England ot the Southern Plains that is continuing to push eastward over the next few days ... Once again, this boundary will act as a focus for convection across the Carolinas and in Texas .. That frontal boundary continuing to sag southward to the Southeast while stalling out across northern and western Texas ... Plenty of heavy rainfall and flooding potential possible across the Southeast .. Big Bend region ... The frontal boundary stalling out along the Gulf Coast for Thursday's forecast .. Heavy rainfall and flooding potential will rise a bit as well ... By Friday, the majority of this will be out over the Atlantic ... We are keeping a close eye on the development of a potential Tropical Storm as I mentioned above .. This could become the big weather story for the next few days, Stay tuned! Southern Rockies has sufficient moisture from an upper level trough with storms expected in the forecast ... Some of these will produce heavy rainfall and flooding potentials ... Temperatures across the Eastern portions of the Nation will be BELOW NORMAL throug hthe weekend ... Another cold frontal boundary approaching the Pacific Northwest and will swing into the Northern Rockies with light rain showers and slightly cooler temperatures ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good afternoon on this Wednesday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis by our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
Deep, mid level trough is finally progressing across Canada with the trailing significant cold frontal boundary now approaching the Eastern Seaboard .. Still have a concern for some convective strong to severe storms across the Carolinas with the modest, low level moisture and boundary layer dew points into the 70s in advance of the frontal boundary ... Strong surface heating and modest CAPE will likely inhibit convective activities ... ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS is the main threat from the isolated severe storms possible for this afternoon and evening ... The potential for VERY HEAVY RAINFALL and LOCALIZED FLOODING also persist ... Pretty much quiet across the remainder of the Nation ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Southeastern Virginia and Eastern Carolinas ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: REMNANT LOW OF HARVEY / INVEST 09L Visual imageries, reconnaissance data, and surface observations are indicating that the remnant low of HARVEY are close to redeveloping into a TROPICAL DEPRESSION over SW Gulf of Mexico about 150 miles to the W of Merida, Mexico .. ADVISORIES will be issued momentarily for the region .. The low is forecast to move to the NW at 10 mph across the Western Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching the NW Gulf Coast late on Friday ... This system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas and Louisiana for next week ... HARVEY could aso produce storm surge and tropical storm / hurricane forced winds along portions of Texas coastal regions for late this week, and TROPICAL STORM / HURRICANE WATCHES could be required later today for portions of the coastal regions of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana ... Interests in these region should monitor the progression of this system ... VERY HIGH ODDS of FURTHER DEVELOPMENT .. 100% INVEST 92L An area of disorganized showers and storms stretching across the Bahamas, Southern Florida, and adjacent waters is associated with a trough of low pressure... Any development of this system during the next few days should be slow to occur as it drifts N over Florida and the adjacent waters .. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for TROPICAL or SUBTROPICAL development over the weekend when the system begins to move NW over the Western Atlantic ... Very heavy rainfall and flooding is possible over portions of FL for the next few days ... LOW ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 30% PACIFIC: TROPICAL STORM KENNETH LOCATION: 23.5N 134.3W 1545 MILES W of the SOUTHERN TIP of BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 10 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 mB or 29.50" KENNETH is moving NNW currently and will continue in that general motion in the next 48 hours ... Additional rapid weakening is expected and will be reduced to a REMNANT LOW by tonight or Thursday ... -- The forecast across the Nation is focused on that cold frontal boundary spanning from New England ot the Southern Plains that is continuing to push eastward over the next few days ... Once again, this boundary will act as a focus for convection across the Carolinas and in Texas .. That frontal boundary continuing to sag southward to the Southeast while stalling out across northern and western Texas ... Plenty of heavy rainfall and flooding potential possible across the Southeast .. Big Bend region ... The frontal boundary stalling out along the Gulf Coast for Thursday's forecast .. Heavy rainfall and flooding potential will rise a bit as well ... By Friday, the majority of this will be out over the Atlantic ... We are keeping a close eye on the development of a potential Tropical Storm as I mentioned above .. This could become the big weather story for the next few days, Stay tuned! Southern Rockies has sufficient moisture from an upper level trough with storms expected in the forecast ... Some of these will produce heavy rainfall and flooding potentials ... Temperatures across the Eastern portions of the Nation will be BELOW NORMAL throug hthe weekend ... Another cold frontal boundary approaching the Pacific Northwest and will swing into the Northern Rockies with light rain showers and slightly cooler temperatures ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Wednesday ... Always please REMEMBER, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Tuesday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Forecast Outlook Analysis, from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
We have a very concerning nature of severe weather with a significant severe weather event unfolding for North Central Pennsylvania into Central New York State ... A mid-level trough ahead of a very significant cold frontal boundary is amplifying as it pushes eastward from the Great Lakes into the Northeast / New England / Mid-Atlantic region ... We are expected a good sub-tropical speed max enhanced by last night's convective activity ... The primary focus remains along and ahead of the aforementioned significant cold frontal boundary with the remnant outflow and differential heating zone in Indiana through Missouri ... Mid level flow with effective bulk shear in instability will support some decent supercell development with surface CAPE values in the decent range and allowing for line bowing segments and possible MCS going through ... The more intense bowing segments will have swaths of DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with embedded QCLS mesovortices and possible spin up tornadoes as well ... The LARGE HAIL threat will be isolated with the modest midlevel lapse rates in place ... In the sector of the southwestern extent of this frontal boundary, there is a shot for some loosely organized multicell clusters that will produce isolated downbursts for damaging winds and some very heavy rainfall across the Central and Southern Plains .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) --ENHANCED RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Eastern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York State where the THREATS for DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 up to 75 mph is expected with locally higher gusts possible, Some LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL could occur, We are definitely not counting out a FEW TORNADOES ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with LOCALIZED FLOODING and FREQUENT LIGHTNING will accompany a lot of these storms rolling through ... --SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the regions SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK from Kentucky to Western New England ... where DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH and locally higher gusts are possible, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL of .25 to 2" in DIAMETER and locally higher diameter is possible, can't rule out a couple of TORNADOES ... MAIN THREAT for FREQUENT LIGHTNING and VERY HEAVY to TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with RAPID LOCALIZED FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Tennessee to Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: REMNANT LOW OF HARVEY: Disorganized showers and storms over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters areas are associated with the remnants of HARVEY ... Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development when the system proceeds over the Bay of Campeche for tonight, and a TROPICAL DEPRESSION is expected to form over the SW Gulf of Mexico on Wed or Thursday's forecast ... Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread westward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so ... Interests in NE Mexico and along the Texas Coastal Regions should monitor the progression of this system ... VERY HIGH ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 90% INVEST 92L Showers and thunderstorm activities associated with a broad area of low pressure near the NE Bahamas remains limited ... Any development of this system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it moves WNW and then turns NW or N near Florida and the adjacent waters ... Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development by the weekend when the system begins to more NE over the Western Atlantic ... LOW ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 30% PACIFIC: HURRICANE KENNETH LOCATION: 20.0N 132.5W 1465 MILES W of the SOUTHERN TIP of BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 10 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 mB or 28.88" KENNETH is moving NW currently, and a turn towards the WNW is expected later today ... Additional rapid weakening is expected and will be reduced to a TROPICAL STORM later today .... -- The forecast across the Nation is focused on a cold frontal boundary stretching from Southeastern Canada through the Rockies being the focal point of the weather pattern across the Central and Eastern United States for the short time ... Strong to Severe thunderstorms with a potential of a significant event across North Central PA into NY state will bring plenty of copious moisture, instability, convective activity along and ahead of the frontal boundary as I mentioned previously ... We do have that flooding possibilities with the heavy rainfall in the forecast across the Lower Great Lakes and New England stats ... The cold front is expected to slow down around the Red River Valley for late tonight .. Heavy rainfall is in the forecast there and sinking southward ... By Wednesday's forecast, we are expecting the frontal boundary to sink even further southward to the East Coast and Southeast with showers and storms there mainly concentrating on the Carolinas to Central / Northern Texas so that is primary focus for now ... In the wake of the front, fall like temperatures with MUCH COOLER and LESS HUMID air in place with drier conditions .... Marginal Risk for flash flooding is in place across the Southern Rockies and Southwest with storms producing heavy downpours ... A slow moving Pacific Coastal Low off California coastal regions will give scattered showers and storms in the regions in California into the Great Basin ... Heaviest rainfall in the Sierra Nevadas ... Typical summerlike conditions along the Gulf Coast into the Southeast and Florida will fire off convection for showers and storms ... Finally, ahead of an incoming cold frontal boundary, temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies will warm up and then as the cold frontal boundary pushes through temperatures are expected to drop near normal to slightly below .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Tuesday! Please, also remember, to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Monday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
Mid-level trough over the Canadian Prairies will be progressing itself into the Upper Mississippi Valley, already a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH in effect across portions of SOUTH DAKOTA through 2 PM CDT ... An associated cold frontal boundary will provide the forcing and lifting along with the daytime heating and instability in place to provide the buoyance and updraft motion with steep mid level lapse rates in place .. A decent severe weather event with damaging winds, large hail, and possiblity of a couple tornadoes will be warranted ... Another mid level trough over the Mid-Atlantic will allow for some mid level lapse rates decent enough with boundary layer dewpoints in the range necessary for a few strong to marginally severe storms to erupt across portions of Northern VA into Eastern PA for this afternoon and evening capable of wind and hail threat ... With this in mind ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) --SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Southeastern South Dakota to Iowa and Northern Illinois ... where DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH and locally higher gusts are possible, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL of .25 to 2" in DIAMETER and locally higher diameter is possible, can't rule out a couple of TORNADOES ... MAIN THREAT for FREQUENT LIGHTNING and VERY HEAVY to TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with RAPID LOCALIZED FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK from the Central Plains to portions of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes ... Northern Virgnia to Eastern Pennsylvania ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: REMNANT LOW OF HARVEY: A trough of low pressure, associated with the remnant of HARVEY, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and storms over the NW Caribbean Sea ... Some development of this system is still a possibility before it reaches the Coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday ... The disturbance is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for redevelopment ... Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall are gusty winds are expected to spread westward across Northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days ... HIGH ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT .. 80% INVEST 92L A trough of low pressure located near Southeastern and Central Bahamas is producing a disorganized area of showers and storms ... Environmental Conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next or so while it moves WNW @ 15 mph ... Conditions could become a little more conducive for development later in the week when the system is near Florida or the adjacent waters... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 40% PACIFIC: TROPICAL STORM KENNETH LOCATION: 17.4N 130.0W 1355 MILES WSW of the SOUTHERN TIP of BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 130 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 10 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 mB or 28.12" KENNETH is moving WNW @ 10 mph and will take a turn to the NW then NNW expected in the next 48 hours ... KENNETH will also gain a little more strength before weakening begins this evening .... -- The forecast across the Nation is focused on a frontal boundary that has slowed the progression across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Central Plains and this will be the focal point of the major weather event of today's National Forecast for showers and possible strong to severe storms with FLASH FLOODING and HEAVY RAINFALL in the forecast for the Upper Mississippi Valley and Central Plains ... The threat will shift into the Southern Plains and northward into New England and the Ohio Valley with the SLIGHT RISK shifting for Tuesday's forecast ... Lighter precipitation for the Tennessee River Valley as well ... An upper level disturbance in combination of a monsoonal transport of moisture will be the focus for heavy rainfall and possible flooding in the Southern Rockies and Southwest ... We also have a slow-moving upper level low pressure storm system off the California coastal regions that will give off isolated to scattered rain showers for California into the Central Great Basin early this week ... Heaviest axis of precipitation will be over the Sierra Nevadas ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a great Monday, protect your eyes from the sun, and enjoy the epic show ... REMEMBER REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!!! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Sunday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
Remnant outflow boundary across IA and MO will stall out in Northern KS to re-generate a line of strong to a few severe storms expected across MO, KS, NE and IA for this afternoon and evening hours ... Mid level frontogenesis across MI and WI associated with weak convection over SD this morning will help to form along a weak cold front some strong to a few severe storms for late this evening and overnight ahead of a more significant cold frontal boundary and low pressure from the Plains heading into the Great Lakes for Monday and Tuesday's forecast, more details on that in the coming forecast ahead ... Isolated Large Hail and Damaging Wind Gusts are possible in these forecast ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa ... Northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: REMNANT LOW HARVEY: This is an organized area of showers and storms that could gradually develop back to a tropical cyclone as it moves WNW across the Central and Northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next 48 hours ... Interests in Northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progression of this system ... An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 60% INVEST 92L A trough of low pressure located about 200 miles N of Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms .. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next couple of days, but they could become slightly more conducive for development by midweek when the system is near the NW Bahamas or Florida... LOW ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 20% INVEST 93L A large area of cloudiness and disorganized convection located about 1,000 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands is associated with a trough of low pressure ... This system is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in the next couple of days .. Therefore, tropical cyclone development is not likely while this system moves NW @ 15 mph ... LOW ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 10% PACIFIC: SOON TO BECOME HURRICANE KENNETH LOCATION: 16.0N 126.1W 1155 MILES WSW of the SOUTHERN TIP of BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 15 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 mB or 29.42" KENNETH is moving W at 15 mph and expected to turn WNW at a slower pace for later today before turning NW late on Monday ... KENNETH is expected to strengthen to a HURRICANE STATUS at anytime ... -- The forecast across the Nation is bringing attention of monsoonal flow returning to the Southwest and Southern Rockies with the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across Southern New Mexico and extreme Southwestern Texas ... Frontal boundary moving across the Central and Northern Plains will bring a few days of active weather including some severe weather across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians ... Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast with the stalling boundary on Monday across the Upper Midwest will bring the opportunity for heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat ... South to Southeasterly winds off the Gulf of Mexico bringing some tropical surge of misture in the form of showers and storms along the Gulf Coast into the Southeast, some storms will produce locally heavy rainfall but scattered in nature ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Wonderful Sunday! Always Remember to PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Saturday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
Mid-level trough and cyclogenesis is setting up the stage for a couple areas of convective weather activities for this afternoon and this evening ... Scattered severe storms are a possibility across portions of Nebraska and Kansas for late this afternoon and throughout the evening hours ... ISOLATED severe storms are possible in Ohio into Central Pennsylvania during the afternoon and throughout the early evening and ending then ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) --SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Central Nebraska and Northern Kansas ... where DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH and locally higher gusts are possible, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL of .25 to 2" in DIAMETER and locally higher diameter is possible ... MAIN THREAT for FREQUENT LIGHTNING and VERY HEAVY to TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with RAPID LOCALIZED FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK in Nebraska and Kansas ... Eastern Ohio into Central Pennsylvania ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY LOCATION: 13.8N 65.9W 280 miles SSW of St. Croix 235 miles ENE of Curacao MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 21 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 mB or 29.68" HARVEY is continuing to move westward, and will continue to do so in the next 48 hours ... CENTER of HARVEY will move across the Central and Eastern Caribbean Sea through the weekend outlooks ... HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN during the next 48 hours ... STAY TUNED! INVEST 92L A trough of low pressure located about 300 miles ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized rain showers and thunderstorms ... Environmental conditions are expected to be only MARGINALLY conducive for development during the next few days while this system moves WNW @ 20 mph ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 40% INVEST 93L A tropical wave located over the Eastern Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is producing some showers and storms activity ... Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next few days while the system moves WNW to NW at about 20 mph, but upper-level winds are forecast to become UNFAVORABLE by early next week ... LOW ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 20% PACIFIC: TROPICAL STORM KENNETH LOCATION: 15.0N 120.2W 840 MILES SW of the SOUTHERN TIP of BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 16 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 mB or 29.68" KENNETH will continue moving WNW through the weekend outlooks ... KENNETH is expected to have some strengthening in the next 48 hours ... becoming a HURRICANE by Sunday's forecast ... -- The forecast across the Nation is concerning an upper-level low pressure storm system moving into the Southwestern areas of the Nation with the moisture surging up in the Southwest and Central / Southern Rockies providing for some HEAVY RAINFALL and POSSIBLE FLOODINg for Southern New Mexico ... Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" is expected and the risk will lift northward for Sunday's forecast across New Mexico into Southern Colorado ... Sierra Nevadas are expected to see some heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding ... A weak surface and mid-level low is in the Plains causing some concerns for severe weather there ... Along and ahead of the front will have some strong to severe thunderstorms and this will push into the Central and Upper Mississippi Valley for this afternoon and evening as the frontal boundary pushes through with much cooler conditions in the wake of the boundary ... A stationary boundary is in the forecast for the weekend in the Carolinas to the Southeast and providing for some showers and thunderstorms there ... A few storms in the Ohio Valley could spawn off a few severe storms, otherwise, some brief heavy rainfall is expected through this afternoon and early evening ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Saturday! Please, always REMEMBER, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Friday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L. Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following: A few scattered strong to isolated severe wind gusts with strong to severe thunderstorms capable of wind damage in the Chesapeake Bay Vicinity northward into Southern NY ... Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of Southwestern MN into Northern MO ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) --SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Virginia to Southeastern New York ... Southwestern Minnesota ... Northern Missouri ... where DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH and locally higher gusts are possible, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL of .25 to 2" in DIAMETER and locally higher diameter is possible, and a COUPLE TORNADOES in the Chesapeake Bay Vicinity into Southeastern New York could become possible ... MAIN THREAT for FREQUENT LIGHTNING and VERY HEAVY to TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with RAPID LOCALIZED FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Northern Missouri ... SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK across MN and MO and extending across Northern Oklahoma to Northeastern Texas Panhandle ... SURROUNDING the Mid-Atlantic SLIGHT RISK ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO can't be ruled out, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: TROPICAL STORM HARVEY LOCATION: 13.0N 60.3W 55 miles W of Barbados 60 miles ESE of St. Lucia MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 18 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 mB or 29.68" TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS: Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines TROPICAL STORM WATCHES: Dominica HARVEY is moving westward and will continue in that motion with a slight increase in forward speed over the next couple of days ... On the Forecats Track, HARVEY should move through the Windward Islands and into the Eastern Caribbean Sea for this morning ... HARVEY will undergo slight strengthening during the next 48 hours ... WINDS of HARVEY: Tropical Storm conditions are ongoing through the WARNING area ... Tropical Storm conditions will be a possibility in the WATCH region later today ... RAINFALL from HARVEY: Totals of 2-4" across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique soutward to Grenada .. RAINFALL could cause LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING and MUDSLIDES ... INVEST 92L Showers and thunderstorms activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 750 miles ENE of the Leeward Islands continue to show signs of organization .. While it would take only a slight increase in organization for a TROPICAL DEPRESSION to form later today or tonight, upper-level winds are become LESS FAVORABLE for development ... The LOW is expected to move WNW at 20 mph during the next few days ... Intrests in the Northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progression ... HIGH ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 70% NEW INVEST 93L NEW INVEST DISTURBANCE Shower activity has increased in the last 24 hours in associated with a tropical wave located over the Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islandds .. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for some development early next week while the system moves WNW to NW at 20 mph ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 40% PACIFIC: INVEST 93E Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located about 700 hours SSW of the Baja California Peninsula have become more organized overnight .. Environmental conditions are conducive for this system to become a TROPICAL CYCLONE at any time over the next day or so while it moves WNW @ 15 mph ... HIGH ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT .. 90% -- The forecast across the Nation is showing a surface low pressure over the upper Great Lakes expecting to track northeast into Southern Canada over the weekend and the associated cold front will progress eastward through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for today's forecast ... With widespread showers and storms associated with the system ... Excessive rainfall and flash flooding potentials on the rise for the Mid-Atlantic for today ... Another surface low is moving through the Central Plains bringing showers and storms there and will move into the Mississippi Valley for tonight's forecast with some heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential on the rise there in the Southern Plains ... Upper-level low across the Southwest has showers and storms associated with it and bringing the precipitation opportunities into the Central and Southern Plains for the weekend with heavy rainfall and flash flooding potentials on the rise as well ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Friday! Also to please REMEMBER, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Thursday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis by our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
A couple of tornadic storms and scattered damaging winds are a good possibility across portions of MI, IN, and OH from a time frame of 2 to 9 PM EDT ... A small severe storm cluster may also develop over the Raton Mesa and adjacent portions of the southern High Plains in the early evening with a wind/hail threat ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with FLOODING POTENTIAL and FREQUENT LIGHTNING is a good bet in these regions .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) --SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana ... Small portions of the Southern High Plainc ... where DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH and locally higher gusts are possible, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL of .25 to 2" in DIAMETER and locally higher diameter is possible, A FEW TORNADOES are a possibility with the favorable veering wind shears in place with very weak lapse rates at the low to mid levels of the atmosphere that will accelerate the updraft motions to form supercell thunderstorms and rotating thunderstorms as well ... MAIN THREAT for FREQUENT LIGHTNING and VERY HEAVY to TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with RAPID LOCALIZED FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley ... Central South Dakota to the Southern High Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO can't be ruled out, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: HURRICANE GERT LOCATION: 41.7N 54W 350 miles S of Cape Race, Newfoundland 525 miles ESE of Halifax, Nova Scotia MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 mph PRESENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 39 mph MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 mB or 28.59" GERT is moving rapidly to the ENE and continuing for today's outlook ... A slower NE to ENE motion is expected for Friday's outlook ... GERT is expected to weakened substantially as it moves into the North Atlantic's cooler waters expected to become an EXTRATROPICAL LOW tonight ... SWELLS are affecting the coastal Northeast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through tonight ... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT and HIGH WAVES are posing a very dangerous swim risks along area beaches through tonight ... REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER til the ALL CLEAR SIGNAL .... INVEST 91L Shower activity associated with a low pressure about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better organized as circulation is becoming better defined ... Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION could form later today or tonight as the system moves W at 15-20 mph .. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles and Eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday ... Intrests in these regions need to monitor this system closely ... Air Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate this system closely ... HIGH ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT - 90% INVEST 92L Shower activity associated with a second area of low pressure midway between Coastal Africa and the Lesser Antilles is becoming better organized ... Continued gradual development is possible in the next 48 hours as this moves WNW at 15-20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves NORTH of the Leeward Islands this weekend ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT .. 60% NEW INVEST DISTURBANCE A tropical wave located over the Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized region of showers and thunderstorms .. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days as it moves W to WNW at 15 mph ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 40% PACIFIC: INVEST 90C Convection activity with a broad area of low pressure located less than 800 miles to the SE of Hilo, Hawaii have become slightly more organized overnight ... Environmental conditions appear to remain conducive for additional development of this system during the next few days as it drifts towards the WNW ... If the recent trends of improved organization persists, a TROPICAL DEPRESSION could form later today or tonight ... HIGH ODDS of FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 80% INVEST 93E An area of low pressure is located 600 miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico ... This system has a broad area of circulation, but the associated convection is disorganized ... Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, a TROPICAL DEPRESSION may form in the next few days moving WNW at 15-20 mph ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 60% -- The forecast across the Nation is showing that low pressure moving over the Upper Mississippi Valley lifting more into the Northern Great Lakes to bring showers and storms there with the flooding rainfall and localized flooding potential a high possibility especially across the state of Michigan ... Be aware! ... Moisture rich air and instability with the diurnal daytime heating is keeping showers and thunderstorms active across the Mid Atlantic, Northeast, Central and Southern Appalachians, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Southeast, and along the Gulf Coast through Friday evening ... Upper-level energy is coalesces over the Northern Plains and will continue to provide showers and thunderstorms across the Plains for tonight moving eastward to the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains through Friday PM ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Thursday! Also, please remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Wednesday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
We are currently watching a decaying, yet extensive area of convection across the Mid and Lower Missouri Valley that is possibly expected to re-intensfy later this afternoon and evening with diurnal destablization and instability in the region supported by veering wind profiles and low-level shear yielding for updraft rotation to support supercell thunderstorms ... The concern right now is how extensive this destabilization could become .. This could warrant further expansion of the SLIGHT RISK ... Cold frontal boundary across the Central Plains will be moving eastward with large destablization and modest instability along and ahead of the front to support strong to severe thunderstorms with all severe weather hazards possible along with a couple tornadic thunderstorms as well ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) --ENHANCED RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri ... THREATS includes DAMAGING TO DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 to possibly up to 80 MPH ... LARGE to SEVERE HAIL from .25 to 3" in DIAMETER a POSSIBILITY, LOCALLY HIGHER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, and a COUPLE TORNADOES and a STRONG ONE COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY depending on how much destabilization could occur ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with LOCALIZED FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING is a GOOD POSSIBILITY... --SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Middle Mississippi Valley to Oklahoma ... where DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH and locally higher gusts are possible, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL of .25 to 2" in DIAMETER and locally higher diameter is possible, a TORNADO can't be ruled out despite low unfavorable conditions and poor hodographs ... MAIN THREAT for FREQUENT LIGHTNING and VERY HEAVY to TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with RAPID LOCALIZED FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Upper Midwest to Western Texas ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO can't be ruled out, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: HURRICANE GERT LOCATION: 36.0N 68.4W 330 miles NW of Bermuda MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 mph PRESENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 21 mph MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 mB or 28.80" GERT is proceeding NE and forecast to gain even more velocity motion going ENE in the next 48 hours ... Some additional strengthening is a possibility with GERT weakening to become an EXTRATROPICAL LOW by Thursday night's outlooks ... SWELLS by GERT will spread northward along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States from Virginia northward to New England / Atlantic Coastal Canada ... Bermuda as well ... SWELLS CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS, PLEASE STAY OUT OF THE WATERS UNTIL SAFE CONDITIONS PREVAIL! INVEST 91L A low pressure system located about 900 miles E of the Lesser Antilles is continuing to produce disorganized convection .. This system is moving WEST at 15-20 MPH, and it is expected to cross into the Caribbean Sea on Friday .. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development in the next several days ... Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progression of this system ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT - 40% INVEST 92L A second area of low pressure located several hundred miles West of the Cabo Verde Islands is also producing disorganized convection .. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days before upper-level winds become less conducive over the weekend ... This system is moving WNW at 15-20 mph for the next several days ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT .. 40% -- The forecast across the Nation is showing that storm system over the Central Plains that is proceeding to move northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes by tomorrow evening's forecast ... This system will be producing a lot of heavy rainfall, rain showers, and strong to severe storms ... Warm frontal boundary is expected to lift northward from the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley into the Great Lakes that will bring up the warm and very moist air mass to cause destabilization and instability in the atmosphere for tomorrow's severe weather outlooks ... HEAVY RAINFALL across UPPER MICHIGAN and NORTHERN WISCONSIN could produce LOCALIZED FLOODING ... BE AWARE! Moisture rich air mass over the Southeast and Gulf states is producing showers and thunderstorms with the help of daytime diurnal heating ... There is a weak upper-level disturbance in the Northern Plains aiding for showers and storms for the Central and Northern High Plains through tomorrow evening ... Majority of the West remain relatively dry and warm with the ridge of high pressure in place ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Wednesday! Also, to please remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer Good morning on this Tuesday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
Couple MCSs are persisting to form and continue through tonight's forecast across the Great Plains ... Peak heating and instability will persist for some strong to severe storms with WINDS and HAIL as the main threat .... Shortwave trough over New England will support for some diabetic heating and instability for a few strong to marginally severe storms for WIND and HAIL threat to persist .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) --SLIGHT RISK has been introduce for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Central Great Plains ... where DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH and locally higher gusts are possible, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL of .25 to 2" in DIAMETER and locally higher diameter is possible, a TORNADO can't be ruled out despite low unfavorable conditions and poor hodographs ... MAIN THREAT for FREQUENT LIGHTNING and VERY HEAVY to TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with RAPID LOCALIZED FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Great Plains ... Northern New England ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO can't be ruled out, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: HURRICANE GERT LOCATION: 31.8N 72.5W 450 miles W of Bermuda MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 mph PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 12 mph MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 mB or 29.12" GERT is expected to turn Northeasat with increasing speed for later today, has an opportunity to gather some strength for later today or Wednesday ... Swells are spreading northward along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States from North Carolina northward to Long Island for the next 48 hours ... SWELLS are also expected to affect Bermuda for the next 48 hours ... THESE ARE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS and SURF INVEST 91L An enlongated area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles East of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms ... This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph across the Tropical Atlantic Ocean ... crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday ... Environmental conditions appear somewhat supportive of a Tropical Cyclone formation over the next few days ... but should become less favorable once the system moves into the Caribbean Sea .. MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 40% PACIFIC: THREE DISTURBANCES of LOW FAVORED DEVELOPMENT is worth watching ... DISTURBANCE ONE: An enlongated area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles SW of the Southern Baja California remains disorganized and development will be slow to occur as the system moves westward ... DISTURBANCE TWO: A westward-moving trough of low pressure located several hundred miles SW of Acapulco, Mexico continues to produce limited showers and thunderstorms ... Environmental conditions are NOT forecast to support development of this system during the next several days .... DISTURBANCE THREE: A tropical wave near the Gulf of Tehunatepec is producing a few showers and thunderstorms ... Environmental conditions are expected to be only MARGINALLY conducive for development of this system while moving west-northwest to northwest at 15 - 20 mph ... CENTRAL PACIFIC: INVEST 90C Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure, located slightly less than 1000 miles to the SE of Hilo, Hawaii remains disorganized early this morning ... Environmental conditions may become conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days as it moves slowly towards the Northeast ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 50% -- The forecast across the Nation is showing a frontal boundary extending from the Great Lakes going westward to the Central Plains that will proceed eastward off the Northeast / Northern Mid-Atlantic coastal region by Wednesday ... Showers and storms will continue to develop along the front and will be in the Ohio and Mississippi Valley for Wednesday and Wednesday evening as a warm frontal boundary lifts on northward ... A cold frontal boundary will bring strong to marginally severe storms with cooler and drier air behind the front .... Upper-level energey extending from the Mid-Atlantic to portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast for the overnight ... Energy is triggering a few showers and thunderstorms from the Lower Mississippi Valley to Mid-Atlantic ... A wave of low pressure over the Central High Plains will advance northeastward and produce a few showers and thunderstorms from the Central Rockies / Great Basin moving into the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central / Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley for Wednesday ... Moisture rich air over the Gulf States / Southeast with daytime heating will allow for some showers and storms for today and Wednesday's forecast ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Tuesday! Please also remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Monday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
We are expected not much of any threat for today's convective activities, although, some isolated possible severe storms could be expected across the lee of the Central/Southern Rockies into the Black Hills vicinity from late afternoon through late evening hours .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Central/Eastern Wyoming into Southeastern Montana and Western South Dakota/Nebraska ... Northeastern New Mexico and Vicinity ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO can't be ruled out, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: TROPICAL STORM GERT expected to become HURRICANE GERT in the next 48 hours . LOCATION: 29.7N 72.2W 475 miles WSW of Bermuda MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1009 mB or 29.80" GERT is moving NNW and a turn to the North is forecast for later this morning ... followed by a turn to the north-northeast by tonight ... GERT is forecast to pass midway between the Eastern Seaboard of the United States and Bermuda by Tuesday ... Some strengthening is expected in the next 48 hours, GERT should become a hurricane by Wednesday's outlook ... INVEST 91L Showers and thunderstorms activity associated with a broad trough of low pressure SW of the Cabo Verde Islands has increased since last night ... Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for development of this disturbance for the next several days while it proceeds westward at about 15 mph over the Tropical Atlantic ... ODDS are MEDIUM for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 60% PACIFIC: JOVA has NOW became a REMNANT LOW, no threat expected MAJOR DISTURBANCES in the EASTERN PACIFIC: A large area of disturbed weather has developed several hundred miles SW of the Southern tip of Baja California Peninsula ... Environmental conditions are generally conducive for some development of this system while it moves slowly westward late week ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 40% Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles SSW of Acapulco, Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure ... Environmental conditions are forecast to be only MARGINALLY conducive for development while this system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward during the next several days ... LOW ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ... 30% -- The forecast across the Nation is showing a frontal boundary extending across the Northeast into the Southern Mid-Atlantic Coastal Region that is also expanding westward across the Gulf Coast into the Southern Plains as a quasi-stationary boundary through Tuesday ... The system is producing continuation of rain showers and thunderstorms in the regions ... Upper-level energy is continuing to slowly progress for the Upper Great Lakes / Upper Mississippi Valley with aiding of showers and thunderstorms from forcing and instability in the regon ... A frontal boundary is moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest bringing some much needed moisture to help a bit with the HIGH FIRE DANGER and HIGH AIR QUALITY ALERTS due to wildfires in the region ... This frontal boundary will reinforce over the Northwest into the Great Basin / Intermountain West that will form some more showers and storms for the week ahead, this will be the system to watch closely for the next few days ... Monsoonal moisture is gaining momentum across the Central / Southern Rockies into the Desert Southwest for showers and storms with the greatest opportunities becoming consistent in the forecast for late evening tonight and Monday's forecast .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Monday! Also, to please, REMEMBER, TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Sunday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Forecast Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following: We are expected a series of impulses and disturbances to fire up convective activities for this afternoon and evening hours across the Middle Missouri Valley through the Southern High Plains where the threat for LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, and A TORNADO or TWO becoming a possibility ... With these threats in mind .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) --SLIGHT RISK has been introduce for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Middle Missouri Valley to the Southern High Plains ... where DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH and locally higher gusts are possible, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL of .25 to 2" in DIAMETER and locally higher diameter is possible, a COUPLE TORNADOES can't be ruled out as well ... MAIN THREAT for FREQUENT LIGHTNING and VERY HEAVY to TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with RAPID LOCALIZED FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK ... ARKLATEX and ARKLAMISS regions ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO can't be ruled out, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: INVEST 99L has become TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT in the early AM LOCATION: 26.5N 70.9W 310 miles NNE of the Southeastern Bahamas 545 miles SW of Bermuda MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 14 mPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1011 mB or 29.86" EIGHT will continue to move NNW for today's forecast and expecting a turn to the NORTH for tonight's outlook ... Turning NNE for Monday's outlook ... EIGHT IS EXPECTED to be upgraded to a TROPICAL STORM for later today ... It is expected to REMAIN WELL EAST of the US Mainland .... NEWLY FORMED INVEST 91L INVEST 91L is a tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa is forecast to move westward over the next 48 hours merging with a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands ... Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves westward at 10 - 15 mph over the open Tropical Eastern Atlantic ... LOW ODDS of DEVELOPMENT for the next five days at 20%... PACIFIC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA ... WEAKENING LOCATION: 20.4N 116.0W 345 miles WNW of Socorro Island MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 15 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 mB or 29.68" JOVA is expected to remain in the general westward motion in the next 48 hours with gradual weakening expected for today and expected to become a REMNANT LOW later in the day ... MAJOR DISTURBANCE in the EASTERN PACIFIC: A surface trough located a few hundred miles SOUTH of Acapulco, Mexico is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms ... Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development in the next few days and a TROPICAL DEPRESSION could form in the later days ahead this week ... while the system moves on westward to west-northwestward at 10 MPH .. MEDIUM ODDS for DEVELOPMENT in the next five days at 60% .... -- The forecast across the Nation is showing a frontal boundary extending across the Northeast into the Southern Mid-Atlantic Coastal Region that is also expanding westward across the Gulf Coast into the Southern Plains as a quasi-stationary boundary through Tuesday ... The system is producing continuation of rain showers and thunderstorms in the regions ... Upper-level energy is continuing to slowly progress for the Upper Great Lakes / Upper Mississippi Valley with aiding of showers and thunderstorms from forcing and instability in the regon ... A frontal boundary is moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest bringing some much needed moisture to help a bit with the HIGH FIRE DANGER and HIGH AIR QUALITY ALERTS due to wildfires in the region ... This frontal boundary will reinforce over the Northwest into the Great Basin / Intermountain West that will form some more showers and storms for the week ahead, this will be the system to watch closely for the next few days ... Monsoonal moisture is gaining momentum across the Central / Southern Rockies into the Desert Southwest for showers and storms with the greatest opportunities becoming consistent in the forecast for late evening tonight and Monday's forecast .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful and pleasant Sunday! Please always REMEMBER, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Saturday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following: We are expecting some convective activity forming some strong to severe thunderstorms across the Great Plains into the Northeast for mainly this afternoon and evening hours .. The most intensive severe weather is expected to occur over the western portions of South Dakota into Nebraska where the biggest threat will be VERY LARGE to SEVERE SIZE HAIL up to 3" and higher diameter a possibility ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) --SLIGHT RISK has been introduce for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Western South Dakota into Nebraska and adjacent states .... Northeastern Corridor ... Red River Valley of Texas/Oklahoma where DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH and locally higher gusts are possible, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL of .25 to 2" in DIAMETER and locally higher diameter is possible, a COUPLE TORNADOES can't be ruled out as well ... MAIN THREAT for FREQUENT LIGHTNING and VERY HEAVY to TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS with RAPID LOCALIZED FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Eastern and South-Central States ... High Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO can't be ruled out, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: INVEST TROUGH of LOW PRESSURE off the EAST COAST OF FLORIDA: A weak enlongated area of low pressure just off the Eastern coast of Florida is accompanied by a disorganized area of rain showers and thunderstorms extending from Southern Florida northeastward across the Southwestern Atlantic ... Upper-level winds are NOT FAVORING for the development but this system could still produce localized heavy rainfall to portions of the FL Peninsula as it proceeds northward during the next 48 hours .... ODDS ARE VERY LOW at 10% for DEVELOPMENT .... INVEST 99L INVEST 99L is an area of low pressure located 150 miles to the NE of the Turks and Caicos Islands becoming better defined on the satellite imageries this morning and the showers activity has increased somewhat since yesterday's outlooks ... Conditions are becoming more gradually conducive for development and a TROPICAL DEPRESSION could very well form in the next day or so ... The low is forecast to move to the northwest and then north throughout the weekend outlook and then turn northeast AWAY from the mainland United States for early next week ... This will very well be an out to sea FISH STORM for the Western Atlantic .... 70% DEVELOPMENTAL ODDS PACIFIC: TROPICAL STORM JOVA: INVEST 92E has strengthened to become TROPICAL STORM JOVA.... LOCATION: 19.3N 110.4W 250 miles S of the Southern Tip of Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 12 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 mB or 29.62" JOVA is moving WNW and will gradually turn to the West in the next 24 hours as the center of JOVA will pass NORTH of the Socorro Island during the next several hours ... Slight strengthening is expected before weakening by Sunday evening ... MAJOR DISTURBANCE in the EASTERN PACIFIC: HIGH ODDS of DEVELOPMENT in the next 5 days at 70% ... Disorganized area of cloudiness and showers associated with a surface trough few hundred miles to the South of Acapulco, Mexico ... Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly conducive for development, and a TROPICAL CYCLONE is likely to form by the mid week while this system is moving WNW at 10 - 15 MPH ... -- The forecast across the Nation is showing a frontal boundary extending from the Lower Great Lakes / Central Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley going westward into the Southern Plains will be the focal point of showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the boundary as it pushes eastward during the course of the weekend's forecast ... Tropical moisture surging from the Gulf of Mexico will also bring showers and storms to the Southeast and portions of the FL peninsula ... Some features to watch closely ... Upper-level energy over the Northern Plains is expected to move into the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley with showers and storms expected in the Plains to the Mississippi Valley ... These storms will then approach the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley before high pressure moves in and dries things out ... We are watching the storm system arriving in the Pacific Northwest bringing much needed moisture transport to calm down the very dry conditions and high fire danger in place ... This will barely be enough to bring it to an end ... So be aware of this factor ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a pleasant Saturday! Also, please remember, to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Friday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following: We are watching a couple of features for today's severe weather forecast across the Nation especially in the Plains where a focused area of organized convection is a possibility of persisting with the shortwave through in the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley with an approaching cold frontal boundary will set the stage with low level winds present and accounting for multi-cellular development for Damaging Winds and Marginally Severe Hail as a threat .... Expansive MCS from last evening into this morning's outlook over the Southern Plains is helping to enhanced the moisture boundary layer present in the atmosphere and with some buoyancy and outflow boundaries combining with mid and upper level westerlies will help to fire some strong to severe storms where some could become supercelluar in nature to produce some ISOLATED severe hail and damaging winds during the course of the evening hours ... With these features in mind, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Eastern and South-Central States ... High Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO can't be ruled out, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: INVEST TROUGH of LOW PRESSURE off the EAST COAST OF FLORIDA: A weak enlongated area of low pressure just off the Eastern coast of Florida is accompanied by a disorganized area of rain showers and thunderstorms extending from Southern Florida northeastward across the Southwestern Atlantic ... Upper-level winds are NOT FAVORING for the development but this system could still produce localized heavy rainfall to portions of the FL Peninsula as it proceeds northward during the next 48 hours .... ODDS ARE VERY LOW at 10% for DEVELOPMENT .... INVEST 99L INVEST 99L is an area of disturbed weather centered over 200 miles North of the Northern Leeward Islands becoming a little better organized since yesterday's outlook, but there are NO INDICATIONS of a closed circulation ... Upper-level winds are forecast to become MORE FAVORABLE for development by the weekend, but dry air aloft COULD LIMIT the additional development only MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE for tropical cyclone development formation ... This disturbance is expected to move northwestward today and then northward over the weekend across the Western Atlantic Ocean .... PACIFIC: INVEST 92E An area of low pressure about 160 miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico .. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system continue to become better organized ... A TROPICAL DEPRESSION is expected to be forming shortly .. Any additional increase in organization will result in the issuance of advisories for today or tonight's outlook ... STAY TUNED! -- The forecast across the Nation is showing some tropical transport of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with the warm frontal boundary lifting on through the Gulf Coastal states into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys up the Eastern Seaboard will bring the scattered to widespread convective showers and thunderstorms over the region ... There are EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS for high amounts of rainfall possible with some flooding potential over the Coastal Carolinas, something we need to be on alert and watch closely .... The surface low and associated cold frontal boundary is expected to proceed across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes associated with some potential severe weather there ... Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected with some rainfall amounts of two to as much as six inches locally is expected with an INCREASING RISK for FLASH FLOODING expected over the weekend in these region ... In the Pacific Northwest, we are expecting ABOVE NORMAL temperatures to persist with dry conditions and high fire danger ... Temperatures forecast in the upper 90s to lower 100s through the weekend ... Interior Pacific Northwest will have the most intensive heat of the period ahead ... HEAT PRECAUTIONS are necessary at this time ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Thursday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
We have a west-northwest steering flow going across the nation especially across the Central Plains that persist to have multiple, small-scale features embedded in the flow ... Shortwave disturbances will be allowing for convective developments across the SLIGHT RISK region will be mentioning shortly ... Favorable instability especially vertical shear and CAPE will allow for a few supercelluar thunderstorms to develop ... Could be some bowing line segments that will develop a localized damaging wind threat through the SLIGHT RISK, possible this could increase the risk to ENHANCED in the further updates ... We will have to watch this closely ... Some strong thunderstorms are a possibility associated with destabilization of a low pressure system across the Upper Midwest and Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, plenty of instability will likely help with some marginally severe storms .. We will have to watch closely how this unfold as a possibility of an upgrade to SLIGHT RISK is not out of the question .... With all this in mind ..... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Central Plains ... THREATS includes DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH; LOCALLY HIGHER IS POSSIBLE, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL up to 2" in DIAMETER; LOCALLY HIGHER IS POSSIBLE, and a COUPLE TORNADOES can't be ruled out as well ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL and FREQUENT LIGHTNING will persist for certain ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Central Plains to the Upper Missisippi Valley ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO can't be ruled out, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN LOCATION: 19.8N 98.3W 60 miles ENE of Mexico City, Mexico MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 15 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 mB or 29.144" TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS: COASTAL MEXICO from Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida FRANKLIN is moving little South of West near 15 mph and expected to continue in this general motion ... The Center of FRANKLIN should continue to proceed over Mexico for today's forecast ... FRANKLIN is expected to have additional weakening with the movement over Mexico, and likely to dissipate later today ... RAINFALL forecast for FRANKLIN is expected to produce 4-8" with localized up to 15" in the Mexican states of Northern Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, eastern Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi ... LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING and MUDSLIDES are a POSSIIBLITY. INVEST 99L INVEST 99L has showers and thunderstorms with a trough of low pressure located 200 miles ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands have changed LITTLE overnight ... Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend ... This system is moving NW over the Western Atlantic with a 40% MEDIUM ODDS for the next five days ... INVEST TROPICAL WAVE DISTURBANCE off BAHAMAS .... A trough of low pressure is over the Bahamas is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms ... Although, development is NOT anticipated, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Bahamas and Florida for the next 48 hours with a LOW ODDS end of 10% development in the next five days .... -- The forecast across the Nation is showing some tropical transport of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with the warm frontal boundary lifting on through the Gulf Coastal states into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys up the Eastern Seaboard will bring the scattered to widespread convective showers and thunderstorms over the region ... There are EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS for high amounts of rainfall possible with some flooding potential over the Coastal Carolinas, something we need to be on alert and watch closely .... The surface low and associated cold frontal boundary is expected to proceed across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes associated with some potential severe weather there ... Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected with some rainfall amounts of two to as much as six inches locally is expected with an INCREASING RISK for FLASH FLOODING expected over the weekend in these region ... In the Pacific Northwest, we are expecting ABOVE NORMAL temperatures to persist with dry conditions and high fire danger ... Temperatures forecast in the upper 90s to lower 100s through the weekend ... Interior Pacific Northwest will have the most intensive heat of the period ahead ... HEAT PRECAUTIONS are necessary at this time ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Good morning on this Wednesday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
Cyclonic mid to upper level flow will continue for the most part over the Plains giving modest instability and flow giving the convective activity a boost for a good shot of locally damaging winds and hail threat ... A mid level deformation zone across the Great Basin with the modest strong winds at the mid to upper levels will help with forcing and lift for some convective storms to develop there ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Plains and Great Basin ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: HURRICANE FRANKLIN LOCATION: 20.2N 93.4W 155 miles NNE of Coatzacoalcos Mexico 195 miles ENE of Veracruz Mexico MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 13 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 mB or 29.15" HURRICANE WARNINGS: COASTAL MEXICO from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo HURRICANE WATCHES: COASTAL MEXICO from North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco FRANKLIN is moving Westerly and will continue on that course for the next 24 to 36 hours ... CENTER OF FRANKLIN is expected to approach the Eastern Mexican Coast for today, then cross into the Mexican Mainland of the state of Veracruz after landfall ... FRANKLIN expected additional strengthening before reaching the Mexican Coast ... Rapid weakening will be expected after landfall on the Mexican Mainland ... RAINFALL forecast for 1-3" for the Yucatan Peninsula through Monday ... 4-8" with localized up to 15: are possible across Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretar, and eastern San Louis Potosi ... STORM SURGES reaching 2-4" above normal tide levels along the immediate coastal areas ... INVEST 99L INVEST 99L has showers activity increasing a tad this morning in association with a trough of low pressure located 400 miles E of the Leeward Islands ... Significant development of this system IS NOT EXPECTED during the next 48 hours due to UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ... However, conditions are forecast to become SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE for development of this system late this week ... and this weekend while it moves WNW to NW over the Western Atlantic ... ODDS are at MEDIUM 40% range for DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE .... -- The forecast across the Nation is scattered rainfall and storms proceeding the front spanning across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains for the next few days ... The surface low and leading edge of the system continues to proceed off into the Western Atlantic with lingering rainfall over the Central / Northern Appalachians into the Northern Mid-Atlantic continuing ... We are also seeing a surge of tropical moisture over the Gulf of Mexico providing ample moisture flow along the trailing edge of the front becoming more stationary in nature ... That is bringing some stormy conditions across the Lower Mississippi Valley with increasing flooding risk across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Coastal Carolinas through Thursday's forecast ... A cold frontal boundary will drop out of the Northern Plains and Great Lakes for tomorrow and then generating showers and storms for the Central / Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes where some locations in Wisconsin and Upper Michigan could recieve a good amount of rainfall up to as much as two inches locally in some locations ... Majority of the Western areas of the Nation continues to be dry and warm with some showers possible in the Great Basin and Intermountain Region on the light side ... Fire Danger remains relatively high in a lot of locations, so check your local conditions before burning any fires ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a Wonderful Wednesday! Also, please remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Tuesday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Forecast Outlook Analysis ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
A broad trough is setting up over the Central / Eastern portions of the Nation with a flow of mid to upper level favoring over the Central Plains with modest dew points and modest instability could present a strong to a couple marginal severe storms formation across the foothills of the Rockies into the Plains ... Just a likelihood of a few gusty winds and small hail threat as much as anything ... Very heavy rainfall with flooding potential persist as well .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Central High Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FRANKLIN DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ... LOCATION: 19.5N 89.1W 85 miles NW of Chetumal, Mexico 95 miles ESE of Campeche, Mexico MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 14 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 mB or 29.50" HURRICANE WATCH: Coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Sabancuy TROPICAL STORM WARNING: Coastal Mexico from Chetumal to Sabancuy TROPICAL STORM WATCH: The Coast of Mexico from Sanbancuy to Puerto de Veracruz FRANKLIN continues WNW .. Will continue a WNW to W trajectory in the next couple of days ... The Center of FRANKLIN will continue to proceed across the Yucatan Peninsula today, emerging over the Bay of Campeche for this evening or tonight ... FRANKLIN will then proceed on westward across the Bay of Campeche for Wednesday's forecast ... Additional WEAKENING is expected while FRANKLIN proceeds across the Yucatan Peninsula for today's forecast ... RESTRENGTHENING is forecast to begin tonight and Wednesday while FRANKLIN proceeds into the Bay of Campeche ... RAINFALL of 3-6" up to as much as 12" possible over the Yucatan Peninsula ... FRANKLIN could bring 4-8" up to as much as 15" locally over portions of Northern Veracruz, Pubela, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, and Eastern Mexico ... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS will likely continue over the Eastern Yucatan Peninsula ... Spreading westward during the course of today's forecast ... TROPICAL STORM to MINIMAL HURRICANE conditions are possible in the HURRICANE WATCH region by tonight into Wednesday's forecast ... INVEST 99L INVEST 99L is a trough of low pressure about 800 miles E of the Lesser Antilles continuing to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms ... Development of this system is NOT expected during the next few days due to UNFAVORABLE conditions ... However, some development of this system is a possibility over the weekend's outlooks while the system generally proceeds WNW at 15 mph over the Western Atlantic ... 0 - 30% LOW ODDS ON FAVOR for development ... -- The forecast across the Nation is scattered rainfall and storms proceeding the front spanning across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains for the next few days ... The surface low and leading edge of the system continues to proceed off into the Western Atlantic with lingering rainfall over the Central / Northern Appalachians into the Northern Mid-Atlantic continuing ... We are also seeing a surge of tropical moisture over the Gulf of Mexico providing ample moisture flow along the trailing edge of the front becoming more stationary in nature ... That is bringing some stormy conditions across the Lower Mississippi Valley with increasing flooding risk across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Coastal Carolinas through Thursday's forecast ... A cold frontal boundary will drop out of the Northern Plains and Great Lakes for tomorrow and then generating showers and storms for the Central / Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes where some locations in Wisconsin and Upper Michigan could recieve a good amount of rainfall up to as much as two inches locally in some locations ... Majority of the Western areas of the Nation continues to be dry and warm with some showers possible in the Great Basin and Intermountain Region on the light side ... Fire Danger remains relatively high in a lot of locations, so check your local conditions before burning any fires ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Tuesday! Also, please remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Monday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
A shortwave trough is going across the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys that is spreading some rainfall and convective activity across the regions ... Low level shears and helicity will support for some strong to possibly a few isolated severe cells ... Southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic could see some intensfying instability to allow for some strong to severe storms with localized gusty winds and possibly some damaging winds as well ... Across the Desert Southwest ... Some intense storms are a possibilty with some northwesterly flow aloft with southeasterly low level winds to promote a few rotating thunderstorms with some gusty winds and hail as a threat ... With all this in mind .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Region ... THREAT includes DAMAGING WINDS of 60 to possibly 70 MPH in some locations ... A COUPLE TORNADOES can't be ruled out ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL a possibility .... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions from Northern Mississippi to the Mid-Atlantic States ... Portions of Southeastern New Mexico and Southwestern Texas ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FRANKLIN DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ... LOCATION: 17.3N 84.7W 230 miles E of Belize City 250 miles ESE of Chetumal, Mexico MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 13 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 mB or 29.65" HURRICANE WATCH: Coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen TROPICAL STORM WARNING: Belize City northward to the border of Mexico The Coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche TROPICAL STORM WATCH: The Coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy FRANKLIN is moving WNW and will continue that general motion in the next 48 hours ... The center of FRANKLIN will pass well N of Honduras for today, then approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by late this afternoon ... FRANKLIN is expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula for tonight through Tuesday's forecast .... FRANKLIN is expected to strengthen more until the center reaches the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula ... Could become near HURRICANE STRENGTH by the time of landfall occuring this evening ... Rainfall is forecast around 3-6", with isolated up to 12" a possibility across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Belize through Wednesday's forecast ... These rain amounts could very well produce life-threatening FLASH FLOODING .... INVEST 99L INVEST 99L is an elongated area of low pressure located midway between Cabo Verde Islans and the Lesser Antilles ... This invest is producing a disorganized area of showers and storms activity ... Unfavorable environmental conditions should LIMIT the development of this system for the next few days, but then again, conditions could become more conducive for some increase in organization of this disturbance by the end of the week ahead ... This system is expected to proceed WNW at 15 mph during the next several days with LOW END ODDS of 20% development in the next five days ... -- The forecast across the Nation is showing some showers remaining across New England with the cold frontal boundary that brought some refreshing relief from the heat and humidity earlier in the week ... Many location will enjoy comfortable readings in the 70s to around 80 for the highs ... Showers and storms will remain in the forecast for the Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning with this slow-progressive frontal boundary .... A wave of low pressure is continuing to advance eastward and will invade the Ohio Valley for Monday and Tuesday's forecast with some widespread rain showers and thunderstorms there ... Heavy rainfall is a possibility in the forecast from the Central Texas region to the Coastal regions of the Carolinas where rainfall amount of 1 to 3 inches is a good possibility with localized amounts to 5 inches is a possibility through early Wednesday with a flash flooding threat on the rise ... Be aware of this factor .... Another cold frontal boundary is sagging southward and eastward out of Southern Canada will reach into the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes through Tuesday ... Across the Western areas, weak and upper-level impulses is continuing to produce rain showers and thunderstorms through Northern California into the Central Rockies through Tuesday's forecast ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Monday! Please, also remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Sunday Edition of our SEMCF National Forecast Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following: We are definitely continuing to watch closely the long-lived MCS that caused some issues across the Plains track to ESE across Oklahoma into Arkansas this morning, it HAS WEAKENED and NOT PRODUCE any severe winds as of late, it is slowly continuing to weaken ... We can't rule out some damaging winds as this continues the progression ... Overnight conditions over the Central and Southern Plains from the well-defined outflow boundary will suggest the redevelopment of showers and storms across this region, some could become strong to marginally severe with wind and hail as the main threat .... So all this in mind .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the High Plains ... Southern Plains ... and Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: INVEST 99L An area of low pressure about midway between Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remain elongated, and the associated showers and thunderstorms are not very well organized ... Some slow development of this system still remains a possibility, but not in a favorable environment as this system continues the progression to the WNW @ 15 mph through the Tropical Atlantic ... ODDS remain at 50% for development ..... INVEST 90L Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a very strong tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea ... This system is moving WNW @ 10 - 15 mph ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION or TROPICAL STORM could form over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula for late Monday or early Tuesday's forecast ... ODDS of 80% development for a TROPICAL DEPRESSION or TROPICAL STORM is in the forecast .... -- The forecast across the Nation is showing some showers remaining across New England with the cold frontal boundary that brought some refreshing relief from the heat and humidity earlier in the week ... Many location will enjoy comfortable readings in the 70s to around 80 for the highs ... Showers and storms will remain in the forecast for the Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning with this slow-progressive frontal boundary .... A wave of low pressure is continuing to advance eastward and will invade the Ohio Valley for Monday and Tuesday's forecast with some widespread rain showers and thunderstorms there ... Heavy rainfall is a possibility in the forecast from the Central Texas region to the Coastal regions of the Carolinas where rainfall amount of 1 to 3 inches is a good possibility with localized amounts to 5 inches is a possibility through early Wednesday with a flash flooding threat on the rise ... Be aware of this factor .... Moisture enriched air mass over the Southeast/Gulf Coast continues to trigger an enermous amount of showers and storms in the region ... Upper-level energy off the Northern California Coastal Region will proceed inland and trigger some showers and thunderstorms in the much needed regions of Northern California into the Great Basin and possibly Central/Southern Rockies through Late Sunday ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Sunday! Please, also remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer |