Good morning on this Monday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Forecast Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... The southeastward advancing cold frontal boundary will provide the necessary convergence for scattered thunderstorms across the Northern Plains ... TROPICAL STORM EMILY has formed this morning off the West Coast of Florida ... Emily is expected to advance inland to provide for some strong to severe storms across the Florida Peninsula ... Some potential does persist across the Southern Plains for a possibility of some strong to locally severe storms for late this afternoon and evening it the orographic instability and convergence warranted in the region, overall, seems as if the severe potential is low, but we will watch this very closely to see if anything does warrant an upgrade in the threat for severe weather ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Northern Plains .... Central / Southern Florida Peninsula associated with Tropical Storm EMILY ... Portions of the High Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: Surprising development in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico has giving the Atlantic Hurricane Season's FIFTH named storm ... TROPICAL STORM EMILY: LOCATION: 27.7N 83.2W 45 miles WSW of Tampa, FL 50 miles WNW of Sarasota, FL MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: E @ 8 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 mB or 29.71" EMILY is forecast to continue on the Easterly course for today's forecast then gradually turning NE for tonight and Tuesday's forecast ... Center of EMILY is expected to move inland over West Central Florida through tonight and then she will proceed offshore of East Central Florida early Tuesday ... Little change in strength expected until Landfall and EMILY will then weaken to a TROPICAL DEPRESSION moving across the Florida Peninsula ... Rainfall across North Central Florida could be around 2 to 4 inches, with locally up to 8 inches a possibility ... Central and Southern Florida will see at least 1 to 2 inches with locally up to 4 inches a possibility as well .... PACIFIC OUTLOOK: TROPICAL STORM IRWIN LOCATION: 20.7N 126.7W 1085 MILES W of the Southern Tip of Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 13 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 mB or 29.59" IRWIN is expected to increase speed moving NNW with a slower motion in the forecast with a turn to the NW on Tuesday ... IRWIN is now moving over cooler waters and weakening as we speak ... IRWIN will likely degenerate to a REMNANT LOW for tonight or early Tuesday's forecast .... -- The forecast across the Nation is showing an old stationary boundary over the Florida Peninsula aiding in a continuation flow of showers and storms off the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic ... Although, TROPICAL STORM EMILY is also pouring on the moisture flow as well ... Monsoonal flow is continuing with the daytime heating and impulses across the Desert Southwest, Central / Southern Rockies, and the Central/Southern Plains through Tuesday evening providing for showers and storms in those regions ... The Northern Plains will be seeing potential severe weather as I mentioned before with the frontal boundary sagging Southeastward with the cooler and less humid air mass behind it ... The Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and portions of the Intermountain West will continue to bake in a Late Summer Extreme Heat Dome over the region with temperatures pushing well into the 90s to near 100 degrees .. Desert Southwest is looking at 100 - 110 degrees highs ... EXTREME HEAT WATCHES and WARNINGS are continuing in effect so precautions for heat are still warranted in the region ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer
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Good morning on this Sunday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Summary from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following: -- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... Generally weakening mid-level flow that is holding on to persistent across the Nation is now having a difficult time surviving thanks to a massive ridge that is slowly building across the Western areas of the Nation and with a weak trough over the Eastern Seaboard heading for the North Atlantic ... At the surface, we continue to see a slow-progressive cold frontal boundary that will stretch from Florida to the Northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southern Plains ... North of the front has the dry airmass in place and will continue to be this way until the ridge breakdowns to allow for some disturbances to flow into the back end for mid week .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Southern High Plains ... Portions of the High Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with two weather systems: TROPICAL STORM IRWIN LOCATION: 17.1N 125.0W 1060 miles WSW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: N @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 mB or 29.47" IRWIN is forecast to turn towards the NNW and accelerate with additional acceleration in the forecast for tonight and Monday ... IRWIN is forecast to weakened in the next 48 hours and likely to degenerate into a REMNANT LOW by Late Monday .... TROPICAL STORM HILARY LOCATION: 23.5N 124.7W 940 miles W of Southern Tip of Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 14 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 mB or 29.62" HILARY is forecast to continue WNW in the next 48 hours and additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours ... HILARY is expected to become a REMNANT LOW, late today or tonight ... -- The forecast across the Nation is showing a very active monsoonal flow across the Southern Rockies aided by tropical surging moisture ... A number of disturbances will be riding along the backend of the ridge and will allow for numerous thunderstorms to develop ... A lot of heavy rainfall opportunities will persist as well ... FLASH FLOODING is possible in the leeward side of the mountains where up to 4" of total rainfall is expected along the Rio Grande Valley ... We got one heck of an amplified ridge in the Eastern areas of the Nation allowing for dry and fair conditions NORTH ... Unusually advancing cold frontal boundary has sagged into the Florida Peninsula allowing for some wet conditions with sea breeze outflow boundaries providing the forcing and ascent for convective weather ... We are also watching a developing tropical wave in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico that is funneling a lot of the tropical moisture into Florida, so very heavy rainfall with flooding potential could persist ... Finally, a very amplified upper-level ridge in the Western areas of the Nation is building up an extremely hot dome of air ... Widespread 100 - 110 degrees highs is forecast across the interior valleys of California into the Desert Southwest ... Some of the areas in the Pacific Northwest could reach low to mid 90s ... EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES / WARNINGS are warranted for the region ... So take your precautions for heat ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Sunday! Please, also remember, Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Saturday Edition of our the SEMCF National Weather Forecast Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... The Southeast is under a modest, upper-level cyclonic flow pattern that is overlying a southeastward progressive cold frontal boundary as the upper level low over the mid-Atlantic region gradually begins to weaken and continues the progression eastward ... A few stronger storms are possible with very heavy rainfall and downbursts expected with localized damage possible ... The most probably location of this would be coastal Carolinas into coastal and Southeastern Georgia .... There is a weak anticyclonic flow over the Plains with the influenced Westerlies in place, strong destabilization is warranted with the slow-moving complex storm system in place with favorable shear and lapse rates for a few strong to marginally severe storms possible ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Southeast ... Portions of the High Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with two weather systems: TROPICAL STORM IRWIN LOCATION: 14.9 N 124.9 W 1125 miles WSW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 1 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 mB or 29.547" IRWIN is drifting NW, a turn to the N is expected ... Increase in the forward speed is also expected with the turn to the NNW on Sunday ... IRWIN could have some strengthening today before gradually weakening begins tonight into Sunday's forecast ... TROPICAL STORM HILARY LOCATION: 20.7 N 120.8 W 715 miles W of Southern Tip of Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 10 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 mB or 29.42" HILARY is presently moving NW and this morning will continue through today with a gradual forecast urn to the WNW on Sunday ... HILARY is forecast for additional weakening as she moves into cooler water ... HILARY is expected to weaken to a DEPRESSION on Sunday ... Degenerate to a REMNANT LOW on Sunday Night ... -- The forecast across the Nation is beginning to look like autumn with the storm system forming over the Mid-Atlantic for today through the first half of the weekend ... This system is currently forming over the Ohio Valley as a couple of low pressure waves riding along the cold frontal boundary ... As he cooler air mass behind the frontal boundary continuing to in filter into the Northern portions of the Nation, an upper-level trough is forecast to corm over the Great Lakes and expected to interact with the low ... This will intensify the low for the Mid-Atlantic late tonight into the weekend with Torrential Rainfall and Intense threat for FLASH FLOODING with forecast rainfall amounts of 2 - 5 inches with locally higher expected as well ... Temperatures will be much cooler in the wake of the system ... The Desert Southwest is continuing under the influence of monsoonal flow interacting with a boundary over the region that is weakening as we speak ... A few showers and storms a possibility with some heavy rainfall with flooding potential possible over portions of the Southern Rockies ... We will have to keep a weather eye on this ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with our favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Saturday! Also, Please remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Friday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Forecast Outlook Analysis from Our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... The mid-level trough is expected to dive into the Great Lakes towards the Mid-Atlantic for today's forecast ... A mid-level ridge is expected across the Southern portions of the Nation to finally weaken as it progresses eastward and then redevelops/builds across the West ... The height falls associated with the trough, and a slow progressive cold frontal boundary will result in helping the forcing and ascent across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic ... A weak surface low is expected to develop across the Southern Appalachians and then slowly deepens as it shifts to the east-northeast ... This low will be the focal point of some very heavy rainfall and FLASH FLOODING POTENTIALS for the Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians for tonight through the weekend outlook ... Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the cold frontal boundary in the Plains ... Monsoonal flow continues the showers and storms across the Western areas of the Nation ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Tidewater Regions ... Portions of the Central / Northern High Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with two weather systems: TROPICAL STORM IRWIN LOCATION: 14.9 N 124.8 W 1120 miles WSW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 2 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 mB or 29.56" IRWIN is expected to have little motion through Sunday's Forecast ... A turn to the north-northwest and to the northeast with some increasing forward speed expected on Sunday ... Some fluctuations in intensity is a possibility for the next 48 hours as well ... TROPICAL STORM HILARY LOCATION: 18.7 N 117.9 W 500 miles SW of Southern Tip of Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 8 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 mB or 29.30" HILARY is presently moving WNW and will continue the general motion for the next 48 hours ... Some increasing forward speed is also in the forecast ... HILARY is expected to weaken in the next 48 hours as she moves into cooler waters ... -- The forecast across the Nation is beginning to look like autumn with the storm system forming over the Mid-Atlantic for today through the first half of the weekend ... This system is currently forming over the Ohio Valley as a couple of low pressure waves riding along the cold frontal boundary ... As the cooler air mass behind the frontal boundary continuing to infilter into the Northern portions of the Naiton, an upper-level trough is forecast to corm over the Great Lakes and expected to interact with the low ... This will intensify the low for the Mid-Atlantic late tonight into the weekend with Torrential Rainfall and Intense threat for FLASH FLOODING with forecast rainfall amounts of 2 - 5 inches with locally higher expected as well ... Temperatures will be much cooler in the wake of the system ... The Desert Southwest is continuing under the influence of monsoonal flow interacting with a boundary over the region that is weakening as we speak ... A few showers and storms a possibility with some heavy rainfall with flooding potential possible over portions of the Southern Rockies ... We will have to keep a weather eye on this ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Friday! Please also Remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Thursday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Forecast Outlook Analysis from Our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L. Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... The upper-level pattern is going synoptic with a slowly westward-progressive ridging from the Plains to the Southwest ... Height falls going across the eastern portions of the Nation ... Moisture channel feeder from Central Canada is extending southeastward into the Great Lakes particularily into Michigan ... Trough is amplifying over Eastern Canada to Lake Huron to support this claim ... Then at the surface, an advancing cold frontal boundary on the leading trough is extending from Southeastern Ontario, Canada through Northwestern Indiana, West-Central Missouri, South-Central Kansas, and the Eastern Borders of Colorado/New Mexico advancing eastward and by tomorrow morning should be into the DELMARVA Peninsula through the Ohio Valley and then pushing out ... Plenty of outflow and differential heating boundaries will support for showers and some convective thunderstorms ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Southern Plains across the Central / Southern Appalachians to portions of the Northeast ... portions of the Central/Northern High Plains and Rockies Foothills ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with two weather systems: TROPICAL STORM IRWIN LOCATION: 14.7 N 123.8 W 1070 miles WSW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 6 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 mB or 29.44" IRWIN is continuing to track WSW for the next 48 hours and gradually decreasing his speed with possible slight strengthening in the next 48 hours as well remaining a TROPICAL STORM HURRICANE HILARY LOCATION: 17.3 N 115.1 W 515 miles SW of Southern Tip of Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 12 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 mB or 28.97" HILARY is forecasted to remain going WNW in the next 48 hours ... HILARY will have little change in strength for the next 48 hours remaining a HURRICANE through Mid-Weekend .... -- The forecast across the Nation is continuing under the large-scale pattern keeping the upper-level ridge across the South-Central portion of the Nation keeping the extremely dangerous heat and dry conditions in place ... A series of disturbances will be focus and organizing thunderstorms for each day with the threat proceeding for the Mid Mississippi Valley towards to the Mid-Atlantic in the next couple of days ... This region is expected to receive some severe weather with increasing potential for flash flooding, particularily in locations which has already seen some significant rainfall ... Considering precipitation in the last 7 days, prone locations will be tri-state region of IA/IL/WI ... The latest forecast has trended more to the South across Southern IA and Northern MO heading to Central IL where the forecast is calling for 2 - 4" of rainfall ... BELOW NORMAL TEMPS will also persist with the cloud coverage .... We are also on the backend of the upper-level ridge bring cyclonic flow and some of the monsoonal flow from the Southwest into the Central/Southern Rockies will bring some inital thunderstorms, some strong to severe expected ... Temperatures in the 90s to 100s will keep the HEAT ADVISORIES across Eastern TX/OK/portions of KS extending now eastward into AR/MO and Western IL/KY/TN ... However, the major hot locations will be the Desert Southwest with forecast highs in the 110s are expected in the next 48 hours ... So take PRECAUTIONS in the HEAT ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Thursday! Also, Please Remember To Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Wednesday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... The mid and upper level pattern is expected to catgorized by a zonally, enlongated anti-cyclonic flow shifting westward from the Southern Plains across the Southern Rockies ... Height falls over the majority of the Eastern portions of the Nation as a series of shortwave disturbances will traverse through a zonal flow through the cyclonic flow still in place ... A series, of mainly low-amplitude shortwaves will be proceeding across the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains region, and then downstream into the northwesterly flow into the Mississippi Valley and Mid South for the next couple of days ... Humidity levels and some instability will be building along and ahead of the cold frontal boundary riding the upper lever low into the Northern Plains moving through the Midwest into the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley to finish out the week ahead .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions from portions of Northeastern Kansas to Southwestern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 65 MPH possible, LARGE HAIL to 1 maybe 1.5" in DIAMETER, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, and FREQUENT LIGHTNING as a possibility ... Can't NOT rule out a BRIEF and WEAK TORNADO or TWO in the vicinity ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and elsewhere from Central Kansas to Western Indiana and Southern/Eastern Wisconsin ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with three weather systems: Fernanda has NOW became a Remnant Low, therefore, no threat to any landmasses or any problems ... Last update on this ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG LOCATION: 17.8 N 139.5 W 1065 miles E of South Point, Hawaii MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 13 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 mB or 29.71" GREG will be forecast to gradually turn WNW and back to the W for tonight and Thursday's forecast ... GREG is slowly weakening for the next 48 hours and forecast to degenerate to a Remnant Low by Tonight ... TROPICAL STORM IRWIN LOCATION: 15.7 N 121.5 W 905 miles SW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 7 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 mB or 29.15" IRWIN is continuing to track WSW for the next 48 hours and gradually decreasing his speed with gradual weakening in the next few days .... HURRICANE HILARY LOCATION: 16.3 N 111.0 W 460 miles S of Southern Tip of Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 105 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 12 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 mB or 28.74" HILARY is forecasted to remain going WNW in the next 48 hours ... HILARY will also continue her strengthening and should be classified as a MAJOR HURRICANE on Wednesday, then expecting to gradually weaken tonight through Friday .... -- The forecast across the Nation is continuing under the large-scale pattern keeping the upper-level ridge across the South-Central portion of the Nation keeping the extremely dangerous heat and dry conditions in place ... A series of disturbances will be focus and organizing thunderstorms for each day with the threat proceeding for the Mid Mississippi Valley towards to the Mid-Atlantic in the next couple of days ... This region is expected to receive some severe weather with increasing potential for flash flooding, particularily in locations which has already seen some significant rainfall ... Considering precipitation in the last 7 days, prone locations will be tri-state region of IA/IL/WI ... The latest forecast has trended more to the South across Southern IA and Northern MO heading to Central IL where the forecast is calling for 2 - 4" of rainfall ... BELOW NORMAL TEMPS will also persist with the cloud coverage .... We are also on the backend of the upper-level ridge bring cyclonic flow and some of the monsoonal flow from the Southwest into the Central/Southern Rockies will bring some inital thunderstorms, some strong to severe expected ... Temperatures in the 90s to 100s will keep the HEAT ADVISORIES across Eastern TX/OK/portions of KS extending now eastward into AR/MO and Western IL/KY/TN ... However, the major hot locations will be the Desert Southwest with forecast highs in the 110s are expected in the next 48 hours ... So take PRECAUTIONS in the HEAT ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Wednesday! Please, also, Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Tuesday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis by our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following: -- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... Severe storms are expected with DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE to DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ( especially in the ENHANCED) and the POSSIBILITIES OF TORNADOES are in the forecast across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley ... Isolated severe storms could become a possibility across the Great Basin ... The northern-stream pattern has turn more into a zonal flow as the trough finally begins to exit the Northeast and weakening further across the North Atlantic through tomorrow ... However, the shortwave trough over the Canadian Rockies is amplifying more with the mid to upper level cyclonic flow shifting eastward as well ... That is a trough with a moisture flow over the Rockies that will amplify as well ... We are also seeing that wavy frontal zone across the Plains into the Mid Atlantic with the low offshore ... A warm frontal boundary will emerge into MN and continue northbound, while we have a cold frontal boundary from the Dakota Triple-Point Low extending into South-Central Wyoming and advancing eastward ... This will become the weather maker for the next couple of days with severe weather threat coming more apparent ... With all this in mind ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- ENHANCED RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of Eastern South Dakota into Southwestern Minnesota where the worse of the severe threat persisting for today .. DAMAGING WINDS of 60 -70 mph with LOCALLY HIGHER GUST is a POSSIBILITY, LARGE to DESTRUCTIVE HAIL of 1 - 2" in DIAMETER, LOCALLY HIGHER is a POSSIBILITY AS WELL, A FEW TORNADOES is NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION with the favorable updraft motion, directional shears, and lapse rates in favor of this ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL and FREQUENT LIGHTNING will be a MAIN THREAT of all this convective activity ... -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK and elsewhere from Southern South Dakota to the Southwestern Lake Superior Region ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 65 MPH possible, LARGE HAIL to 1 maybe 1.5" in DIAMETER, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, and FREQUENT LIGHTNING as a possibility ... Can't NOT rule out a TORNADO or TWO in the vicinity ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and extending into the majority of the Central High Plains ... Western Great Basin ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with four weather systems: Fernanda has NOW became a Remnant Low, therefore, no threat to any landmasses or any problems ... Last update on this ... TROPICAL STORM GREG LOCATION: 15.2 N 135.7 W 1345 miles E of South Point, Hawaii 1765 miles WSW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 mB or 29.62" GREG is forecast to make a gradual turn to the Northwest for later today, then turn West by Wednesday PM ... GREG is also forecast to weaken and become a Tropical Depression by tomorrow ... HURRICANE IRWIN LOCATION: 15.5 N 118.7 W 770 miles SW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 5 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 mB or 29.27" IRWIN is forecast to turn towards the WSW on Wednesday ... Little change in strength for today's forecast into tonight ... IRWIN is expected to begin weakening on Wednesday ... HURRICANE HILARY LOCATION: 15.3 N 106.7 W 360 miles S of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico 565 miles SSE of Southern Tip of Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 105 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 10 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 mB or 28.80" HILARY is forecasted to remain going WNW in the next 48 hours with some increasing forward motion expected ... HILARY will also continue her strengthening and should be classified as a MAJOR HURRICANE on Wednesday... -- The forecast across the Nation is ramping up with the breakdown weakening of the major extensive heat ridge across the Plains into the Mid South and Southeast, however, it won't BE WEAKENED enough to warrant a complete breakdown .. The good news is some widespread rain showers and thunderstorms for some relief from the heat is forecast across the region with the cold frontal boundary sagging Southward ... Bad News is this front is expected to stall out across the Central Plains to Mid-Atlantic ... That will continue to cause the heat suffering onward for the Mid South, Plains, and Southeast already dealing with sufficient humidity and very dangerous humidity, dew points, and extreme heat indices ... Monsoonal flow continues in the Southwest to the Central/Southern Rockies with flash floodin potential expected ... Upper level pattern shifting across the Northern Tiers as well ... So a few features to keep a weather eye on in the next couple of days .. Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have an enjoyable Tuesday! Please also Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Monday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... Isolated severe weather is expected for portions of the Northern Plains and portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic thanks to a ridge in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere remaining in place in the South with troughing ongoing from the Georgian Bay to the Central Appalachians ... Further West, expected small series of shortwaves riding the trough establishing over Northern Plains into Western Canada .. Cold frontal boundary associated with low pressure will sag southeastward for today and through the next of couple of days with increasing threats for severe weather in the forecast .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of the Northern Plains and Minnesota ... Portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with four weather systems: TROPICAL STORM GREG LOCATION: 15.2 N 123.1 W 1010 miles WSW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 13 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 mB or 29.56" GREG is remaining in general westerly motion for the next 48 hours with remaining Tropical Storm strength as well with some slight strengthening as well ... TROPICAL STORM IRWIN LOCATION: 14.8 N 117.4 W 745 miles SW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 8 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 mB or 29.56" IRWIN is expecting to continue in a slow westward motion for the next 48 hours as he should begin the amplification to become a HURRICANE by Tuesday's Newest Outlook Forecast ... HURRICANE HILARY Upgraded from Tropical Storm status as of this morning .... LOCATION: 14.0 N 103.8 W 345 miles S of Manzanillo, Mexico MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 mB or 29.24" HILARY is forecasted to remain going WNW in the next 48 hours with some increasing forward motion expected ... HILARY will also continue her strengthening and should be classified as a MAJOR HURRICANE by Tuesday's Latest Forecast Updates ... -- The forecast across the Nation is ramping up with the breakdown weakening of the major extensive heat ridge across the Plains into the Mid South and Southeast, however, it won't BE WEAKENED enough to warrant a complete breakdown .. The good news is some widespread rain showers and thunderstorms for some relief from the heat is forecast across the region with the cold frontal boundary sagging Southward ... Bad News is this front is expected to stall out across the Central Plains to Mid-Atlantic ... That will continue to cause the heat suffering onward for the Mid South, Plains, and Southeast already dealing with sufficient humidity and very dangerous humidity, dew points, and extreme heat indices ... Monsoonal flow continues in the Southwest to the Central/Southern Rockies with flash flooding potential expected ... Upper level pattern shifting across the Northern Tiers as well ... So a few features to keep a weather eye on in the next couple of days .. Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Monday! Please also, remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Sunday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from Our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... A broad zone of widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms some strong to severe is expected over portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians for today ... Isolated strong to severe is a possibility over portions of Oklahoma going eastward into the Mid-South as well ... The upper level air pattern is continuing and with the persistent ridging over the Southwest is causing the amplification of the northern stream trough ... This is setting the stage all up for this threat ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for regions of the Great Lakes to the Central Appalachians .. Mid Atlantic and Tidewater Regions ... THREATS INCLUDES the following ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 mph or greater, locally is possible ... LARGE HAIL TO 1" in DIAMETER with locally higher possible, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING a possibility, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and a possibility of a COUPLE WEAK TORNADOES couldn't be ruled out ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and extending westward to the majority of Oklahoma ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with four weather systems: Fernanda has NOW became a Remnant Low, therefore, no threat to any landmasses or any problems ... Last update on this ... TROPICAL STORM GREG LOCATION: 14.7 N 127.7 W 1290 miles WSW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 14 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 mB or 29.56" Greg is remaining in general westerly motion for the next 48 hours with remaining Tropical Storm strength as well ... TROPICAL STORM IRWIN LOCATION: 14.7 N 115.2 W 665 miles SSW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 mB or 29.68" Irwin is moving in a W to WNW general motion with slower forward progression forecast in the next 48 hours ... Gradual strengthening expected in the next 48 hours with possible HURRICANE status by Tuesday PM ... TROPICAL STORM HILARY LOCATION: 12.5 N 101.6 W 485 miles SSE of Manzanillo, Mexico 325 miles SSW of Acapulco Mexico MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 mB or 29.68" Hilary will remain in a general WNW motion with decreasing speed expected in the forecast ... Hilary is expected to become a HURRICANE on Monday .... -- The forecast across the Nation is HOT! Continuation of HOT and HUMID conditions prevailing across the Southern section of the Nation SOUTH of the wavy frontal boundary stretching from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic Coast .. Widespread EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS and HEAT ADVISORIES in effect for the majority of the Central and Southern Plains, Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Mid-Atlantic where dangerous combinations of high temperatures 90 - 110 combined with very high dew points and humidity levels making heat indices well into the 100s to 110 possibly 115 for today and tomorrow's forecast ... Locations across KS and MO will begin to feel relief from the heat as a cold frontal boundary proceeds across the region ... Weak impulses will keep monsoonal flow continuing for convective activities from the Southwest to the Central and Northern Rockies ... We do have amplifying shortwaves that could bring some rain showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast and Southern Plains with the surface heating and some favorable instability, but no severe weather is expected ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Sunday! Please also remember, Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Saturday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Forecast Outlook Analysis from Our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... The upper level air pattern continues to feature one very strong area of high pressure with an amplified ridge over 2/3 of the Nation especially in the Southeast / Mid South / Central and Southern Plains with the EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUING while a belt of enhanced winds flow across the Canadian Rockies and extending into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes ... With the ridging in place, a series of disturbances will ride across the Northern Rockies where an amplified trough is forming ... An advancing cold frontal boundary across the Midwest and proceeding into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, reaching the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for Sunday will finally shut off the heat and humidity for the week ahead ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for regions of the Upper Ohio Valley to portions of the Mid-Atlantic ... Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region ... THREATS INCLUDES the following ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 mph or greater, locally is possible ... LARGE HAIL TO 1" in DIAMETER with locally higher possible, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING a possibility, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and a possibility of a COUPLE WEAK TORNADOES couldn't be ruled out across portions of the Upper Great Lakes particularily in Upper Michigan and portions of Wisconsin ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and extending across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Missouri Valleys to the Central Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with four weather systems: First ... FERNANDA has weakened to a Tropical Storm as of last evening ... Tropical Storm Fernanda Location: 19.0 N 145.4 W 635 miles to the East of Hilo, HI 825 miles to the E of Honolulu, HI MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW # 8 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 mB or 29.65" Fernanda is expected to continue on the WNW trajectory and additional weakening to a tropical depression is expected now, remnant low classification expected by tonight with large swells already happening in the facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands ... Dangerous Rip Currents are underway ... Be Aware! TROPICAL STORM GREG LOCATION: 15.2 N 123.1 W 1010 miles WSW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 13 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 mB or 29.56" Greg is expecting to slightly increase forward velocity along with strengthening to a possible minimal category 1 Hurricane by the weekend or over the weekend ... with a W to WNW motion ...Stay Tuned! TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E This tropical system has just formed earlier this morning and is more conducive to strengthening into a TROPICAL STORM in the next 48 hours with the movement generally West at 10 mph ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E LOCATION: 9.6N 96.6W 420 miles S of Puerto Angel Mexico 550 miles SSE of Acapulco Mexico MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 13 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 mB or 29.71" Movement expected to shift more northwesterly during the course of today's forecast ... Forecast is favoring additional strengthening to a TROPICAL STORM later today, POSSIBLE HURRICANE by Sunday PM ... STAY TUNED and BE ALERT! -- The forecast across the Nation is HOT! Continuation of HOT and HUMID conditions prevailing across the Southern section of the Nation SOUTH of the wavy frontal boundary stretching from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic Coast .. Widespread EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS and HEAT ADVISORIES in effect for the majority of the Central and Southern Plains, Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Mid-Atlantic where dangerous combinations of high temperatures 90 - 110 combined with very high dew points and humidity levels making heat indices well into the 100s to 110 possibly 115 for today and tomorrow's forecast ... Locations across KS and MO will begin to feel relief from the heat as a cold frontal boundary proceeds across the region ... Weak impulses will keep monsoonal flow continuing for convective activities from the Southwest to the Central and Northern Rockies ... We do have amplifying shortwaves that could bring some rain showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast and Southern Plains with the surface heating and some favorable instability, but no severe weather is expected ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Saturday! Please, as well, Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Friday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L. Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... We have the big amplified heat dome ridge of high pressure dominating the southern half of the Nation, while a zonal flow pattern across the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Upper Midwest becomes more cyclonic in nature over the Northeast ... Strong shortwave trough of low pressure continues in a moisture-channel feeder over the Canadian Rockies and sagging Southeastward across the Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley ... A frontal boundary stalling out will have a forming low pressure riding the front to allow for instability, forcing, and ascent for multiple rounds of showers and strong to severe storms ... Ahead of the cold frontal boundary over the weekend, multiple MCS could form across the Upper MS Valley and Upper Midwest swinging through the Great Lakes with all parameters for severe weather a possibility ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- ENHANCED RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Eastern Dakotas to the Illinois/Wisconsin border region ... THREATS INCLUDES ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 75 MPH a possibility, with a few incidients of LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS a possibility, A FEW TORNADOES can't be ruled out as well ... LARGE to DESTRUCTIVE HAIL from .25 to 2" in DIAMETER with Possibly Locally Higher Diameter a possibility ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with FLOODING POTENTIAL and FREQENT Cloud to Ground LIGHTNING as the main threat ... Stay aware and alerted! -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for regions SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK from the Eastern Dakotas to Northern Indiana ... THREATS INCLUDES the following ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 mph or greater, locally is possible ... LARGE HAIL TO 1" in DIAMETER with locally higher possible, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING a possibility, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and CAN'T REALLY RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES especially in portions of Pennsylvania where the support for instability and forcing ... Be aware! -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK for and extending to Eastern Colorado and Western West Virginia ... portions of Northern Maine ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with four weather systems: First ... FERNANDA has weakened to a Tropical Storm as of last evening ... Tropical Storm Fernanda Location: 18.4 N 142.5 W 825 miles to the East of Hilo, HI 1020 miles to the E of Honolulu, HI MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 12 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 mB or 29.53" Fernanda is expected to continue on the WNW trajectory and additional weakening to a tropical depression is expected by late today or tonight.... TROPICAL STORM GREG LOCATION: 14.5 N 118.3 W 800 miles SSW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 10 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 mB or 29.62" Greg is expecting to slightly increase forward velocity along with strengthening to a possible minimal category 1 Hurricane by the weekend or over the weekend ... with a W to WNW motion ...Stay Tuned! INVEST 99-E This system is located several hundred miles to the SOUTH of the Southern Tip of Baja California ... Upper level winds are becoming more unfavorable for further development past the weekend ... Presently moving to the W to WNW at 10 mph.... New forming INVEST has begun ... INVEST 90E, 90% odds of becoming a tropical depression for later today or tomorrow with highly favorable environment in place ... Presently moving to the WNW at 10 - 15 mph ... -- The forecast across the Nation will remain rich and moisture driven in the region with the severe weather in place, not only that, very heavy rainfall will increase the threat for localized minor flooding as a potential ... HEAT is on the rise across the Desert Southwest into the Plains and Middle Missouri / Mississippi Valleys where EXTREME HEAT WATCHES are in effect ... Daytime highs well into the 90s with high humidity will push the heat indices to 100 - 105 even locally higher which prompt HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS MEASURES in effect ... So be sure to check on the elderly and pets ... Providing for a cool environment, plenty of fresh, cold water, and PLEASE MAKE SURE to KEEP YOUR PETS AT HOME and NOT BRING THEM OUT IN THIS DANGEROUS HEAT!!! Thank You!! Plenty of monsoonal moisture continues to flow into the Desert Southwest to provide for showers and storms opportunities for them ... Instability and moisture flow from the Atlantic along with surface daytime heating will provide for ample opportunities for the Gulf Coastal States / Southeast / FL Peninsula with showers and storms there ... A new system could provide for onshore flow of moisture off the Pacific for showers and rainfall for the Pacific Northwest through late tonight and possibly another system off to the West could keep the threat in place over the weekend, a trend we are watching closely as of now .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a great Friday! Please always remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Thursday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Forecast Analysis from our Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... A series of multiple disturbances along with low pressure forming and riding along the boundary in the Lower Great Lakes to New England will set the stage up for potential strong to severe storms in the forecast ... Instability and forcing will be sufficent enough to support ... Ongoing MCS across Indiana aat this hour is expected to maintain the moisture feeder from the IA warm advection flow to keep the threat going for storms in the Ohio Valley and the Midwest .... Mid-level trough in place across the Northern Plains will have support with the flattening ridge in the Pacific NW and Rockies with cyclogenesis in place at the lee trough ... Strong instability support and parameters will help to form convective activity warranting to watch closely as well ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of Illinois extending east and northeast into Western New York ... THREATS INCLUDES the following ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 mph or greater, locally is possible ... LARGE HAIL TO 1" in DIAMETER with locally higher possible, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING a possibility, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and CAN'T REALLY RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES especially in portions of Pennsylvania where the support for instability and forcing ... Be aware! -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK for portions of the Northern Plains ... and a broad area from portions of New England to the Midwest / Northern Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with four weather systems: First ... FERNANDA has weakened to a Tropical Storm as of last evening ... Tropical Storm Fernanda Location: 18.2 N 137.7 W 1140 miles to the East of Hilo, HI MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 mB or 29.30" Fernanda is expected to continue on the WNW trajectory and additional weakening to a tropical depression is expected by tomorrow night late ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E LOCATION: 13.7 N 122.6 W 1045 miles to the SW of Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 6 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1009 mB or 29.80" EIGHT-E is expected to be impacted by Tropical Storm Greg, could weakened and be merged into Greg ... Forecast is remaining uncertain at this time ... TROPICAL STORM GREG LOCATION: 14.1 N 114.7 W 685 miles SSW of the Southern Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 10 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 mB or 29.71" Greg is expecting to slightly increase forward velocity along with strengthening to a possible minimal category 1 Hurricane by the weekend or over the weekend ... Stay Tuned! INVEST 99-E This system is located 600 miles to the South of Manzanillo, Mexico with organization strengthening and becoming more defined ... Expecting this system to become a Tropical Depression over the weekend with 90% odd forecast on this forecast .... -- The forecast across the Nation will remain rich and moisture driven in the region with the severe weather in place, not only that, very heavy rainfall will increase the threat for localized minor flooding as a potential ... HEAT is on the rise across the Desert Southwest into the Plains and Middle Missouri / Mississippi Valleys where EXTREME HEAT WATCHES are in effect ... Daytime highs well into the 90s with high humidity will push the heat indices to 100 - 105 which prompt HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS MEASURES in effect ... So be sure to check on the elderly and pets ... Providing for a cool environment, plenty of fresh, cold water, and PLEASE MAKE SURE to KEEP YOUR PETS AT HOME and NOT BRING THEM OUT IN THIS DANGEROUS HEAT!!! Thank You!! Plenty of monsoonal moisture continues to flow into the Desert Southwest to provide for showers and storms opportunities for them ... Instability and moisture flow from the Atlantic along with surface daytime heating will provide for ample opportunities for the Gulf Coastal States / Southeast / FL Peninsula with showers and storms there ... A new system could provide for onshore flow of moisture off the Pacific for showers and rainfall for the Pacific Northwest through late tonight and possibly another system off to the West could keep the threat in place over the weekend, a trend we are watching closely as of now .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Thursday! Please remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Wednesday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Analysis for our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... Series of disturbances riding with the low across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley with MCS and bow line segments forming will provide for a corridor of DAMAGING to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL, and A FEW TORNADOES ( A COUPLE COULD BE STRONG) starting up by early afternoon (HINDERS ON THE MORNING ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN THE DAKOTAS) Dakotas and then beginning to spread downstream going Southeastward across Central/Southern Minnesota through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours, reaching Southwestern Wisconsin before weakening early tonight as it approaches Northern Illinois and Greater Chicago Metro ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) Note to mention, meteorologists are monitoring trends very closely for a possibility of a MODERATE RISK upgrade coming for the later updates, right now, confidence is LOW range at this time ... STAY TUNED! -- ENHANCED RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening for the regions of Northeastern South Dakota to Southern Minnesota and Northeastern Iowa .. Southwestern Wisconsin and Extreme Northwestern Illinois ... THREATS INCLUDES the following ... DAMAGING TO DESTRUCTIVE WINDS of 60 - 75 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER A POSSIBILITY, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL .25 to 2" in DIAMETER, LOCALLY HIGHER IS A POSSIBILITY, A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE, with a COUPLE could become STRONG is a POSSIBILITY ... MAJOR THREAT for VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with RAPID MINOR FLOODING and FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ... -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK from Central South Dakota to Northern Illinois ... THREATS INCLUDES the following ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 mph or greater, locally is possible ... LARGE HAIL TO 1" in DIAMETER with locally higher possible, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING a possibility, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and CAN'T REALLY RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES especially in portions of Central / Southern Minnesota with the better dynamics and environments ... Be aware! -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK for portions of the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest ... Central/Southern Arizona ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC is getting active with two systems we are watching: DON dissipated to a tropical depression now about to downgrade to a tropical wave over the Northern sections of South America ... Not much of a concern anymore ... We are watching an INVEST system, 98E, located several hundred miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands with present speed WNW at 10 - 15 mph ... Environment is less conducive for development with a 40% odd for any favorable weather to help ... This system is looking more unorganized as we speak ... I do NOT expect any more issue concerning this system in the future updates ... PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with three weather systems: CAT 1 HURRICANE FRENANDA has weakened a bit in the last 24 hours Location: 17.0 N 135.0 W 1330 miles to the E of Hilo, Hawaii MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 mB or 28.94" FRENANDA is gradually weakening and will continue that course for the next 48 hours ... Turning more towards the WNW and will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm by Thursday's updated forecast ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E expected to continue to turn SW at the present speed and motion ... Little change in strength is expected in the next 48 hours. This system is expected to interact with Tropical Storm Greg over the weekend ... One we are closely monitoring is a newly formed TROPICAL STORM GREG: Location: 14.3 N 111.0 W 550 miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 10 MPH MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 mB or 29.68" GREG is expected to strengthen in the next 48 hours as he continues on a WNW trajectory and expecting to increase forward motion by Thursday's updated forecast .... -- The forecast across the Nation will remain rich and moisture driven in the region with the severe weather in place, not only that, very heavy rainfall will increase the threat for localized minor flooding as a potential ... HEAT is on the rise across the Desert Southwest into the Plains and Middle Missouri / Mississippi Valleys where EXTREME HEAT WATCHES are in effect ... Daytime highs well into the 90s with high humidity will push the heat indices to 100 - 105 which prompt HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS MEASURES in effect ... So be sure to check on the elderly and pets ... Providing for a cool environment, plenty of fresh, cold water, and PLEASE MAKE SURE to KEEP YOUR PETS AT HOME and NOT BRING THEM OUT IN THIS DANGEROUS HEAT!!! Thank You!! We are also watching a new storm system entering portions of British Columbiana, Canada into the Northern sections of the Pacific Northwest with weak onshore flow will aid in producing some rain showers along the Coastal sections of the Northwest starting overnight Wednesday all the way through Thursday PM forecast ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a pleasant Wednesday! Please always remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Tuesday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Analysis by our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... We are expected some strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the Upper Midwest / Upper Mississippi Valley with some instincts for LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS and HAIL as the main threats ... a COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES are possible as well ... A few strong to severe s torms are a possibility over portions of the Central / Northern Plains for the afternoon and evening hours ... Isolated marginally severe hail and some winds will be a possibility over the Blue Ridge Mountains for a few hours due to surface heating and favorable instability in the region .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains ... THREATS INCLUDES the following ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 mph or greater, locally is possible ... LARGE HAIL TO 1" in DIAMETER with locally higher possible, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING a possibility, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and CAN'T REALLY RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES especially in portions of Central / Southern Minnesota with the better dynamics and environments ... Be aware! -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and from the Upper Great Lakes to the Northern High Plains ... Blue Ridge Mountains of VA and NC ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC is getting active with two systems we are watching: TROPICAL STORM DON formed: Location: 11.4 N 57.0 W 210 miles SE of Barbados 320 miles E of Grenada MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: W @ 18 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1010 mB or 29.82" Don is expected to gradually weaken in the next few days with increasing forward motion expected ... Environmental conditions are non favorable across the Southern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ... We are watching an INVEST system, 98E, located several hundred miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands with present speed WNW at 10 - 15 mph ... Environment is less conducive for development with a 40% odd for any favorable weather to help ... PACIFIC is very active and ongoing with three weather systems: CAT 1 HURRICANE FRENANDA Location: 15.4 N 132.8 W 1495 miles to the E of Hilo, Hawaii MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 105 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 mB or 28.68" FRENANDA is gradually weakening and will continue that course for the next 48 hours ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E just became known this morning and is gradually and marginally conducive for further development in the next couple of days with movement to the W or WSW for the next few days ... Keep a close eye on this. One we are closely monitoring is a newly formed TROPICAL STORM GREG: Location: 14.6 N 107.6 W 375 miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 9 MPH MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 mB or 29.71" GREG is expected to strengthen in the next 48 hours as he continues on a W to WNW track with increasing forward speed into favorable environments ... -- The forecast across the Nation will remain rich and moisture driven in the region with the severe weather in place, not only that, very heavy rainfall will increase the threat for localized minor flooding as a potential ... HEAT is on the rise across the Desert Southwest into the Plains and Middle Missouri / Mississippi Valleys where EXTREME HEAT WATCHES are in effect ... Daytime highs well into the 90s with high humidity will push the heat indices to 100 - 105 which prompt HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS MEASURES in effect ... So be sure to check on the elderly and pets ... Providing for a cool environment, plenty of fresh, cold water, and PLEASE MAKE SURE to KEEP YOUR PETS AT HOME and NOT BRING THEM OUT IN THIS DANGEROUS HEAT!!! Thank You!!! Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Great Tuesday! Please remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Monday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from Our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... A mid-level shortwave disturbance is ejecting eastward over the Canadian Prairies with a surface cold frontal boundary will proceed to provide forcing and lifing along with rapid surface heating and decent instability to allow for cluster of storms to develop ... ISOLATED in the Dakotas and upscale grown over Western SD is expected ... Mid-level trough continues to dominate the pattern across the Northeast and New England with a weak surface cold frontal boundary providing just enough forcing and ascent with instability present for multi-celluar convective activing for wet downbursts and marginally severe hail ... As we've been saying all along across the Desert Southwest, particularily in Central and Southern Arizona, monsoonal flow continues to provide the surge of moisture and surface heating for instability to form a few showers and storms .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of Northeastern Pennsylvania into Central New York to Southern Vermont ... Northeastern South Dakota to the Minnesota Arrowhead ... THREATS INCLUDES the following ... DAMAGING WINDS of 60 mph or greater, locally is possible ... LARGE HAIL TO 1" in DIAMETER with locally higher possible, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING a possibility, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, and CAN'T REALLY RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES especially in portions of Central / Southern Minnesota with the better dynamics and environments ... Be aware! -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of Northern Maryland and South Pennsylvania to Western New England ... Upper Mississippi valley to Nebrsake and Western South Dakota ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- The forecast across the Nation will remain rich and moisture driven in the region with the severe weather in place, not only that, very heavy rainfall will increase the threat for localized minor flooding as a potential ... HEAT is on the rise across the Desert Southwest into the Plains and Middle Missouri / Mississippi Valleys where EXTREME HEAT WATCHES are in effect ... Daytime highs well into the 90s with high humidity will push the heat indices to 100 - 105 which prompt HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS MEASURES in effect ... So be sure to check on the elderly and pets ... Providing for a cool environment, plenty of fresh, cold water, and PLEASE MAKE SURE to KEEP YOUR PETS AT HOME and NOT BRING THEM OUT IN THIS DANGEROUS HEAT!!! Thank You!!! Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a wonderful Monday! Please be sure to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Sunday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... The mid-level trough with some vorticity is extending southwestward into the Mid Mississippi Valley will allow for some low level moisture flow with instability to allow for some strong to ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS in the region for this afternoon and evening hours ... Low-amplitude shortwave is ejecting east-northeast into the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains with instability and high surface heating will allow for some convective strong to ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS to fire up this afternoon and evening hours there ... Monsoonal flow continues in the Desert Southwest with east-northeasterly mid-level flow to allow with surface heating to develop rain showers to strong / ISOLATED severe ... Southeast has some weak mid-level cyclonic flow with some instability and deep moisture content for some garden-variety storms in the forecast for this afternoon and evening ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of the Lower Great Laeks to the Middle Mississippi Valley ... Southern Montana and Vicinity to North Dakota ... Central / Southern Arizona ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- The forecast will likely be anything for showers and storms as mentioned above bringing cooler weather in the wake of the two diffusing cold frontal boundaries across the Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains into the Northeast / Ohio Valley to the Middle Mississippi Valley ... Then we have a third frontal boundary across the Pacific Northwest to mentioned stretching into the Northern High Plains and Great Basin bringing an opportunity for showers and storms across these regions ... Monsoonal moisture in the Desert Southwest will continue to provide showers and strong to marginally locally severe storms there in portions of Central and Southern Arizona ... Localized flooding is a possibility.... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Great Sunday! Please Remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Saturday Edition of our SEMCF National Forecast Outlook Analysis for our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... A weak, midlevel trough across the Northern Plains will begin to progress into the Midwest and Western Great Lakes with a weak cold frontal boundary sweeping through will be the focus for some storm activity across Wisconsin where a SLIGHT RISK is apparent ... However, high LCLs with a lack of directional shear will make the TORNADO THREAT VERY LOW at all ... THREAT for DAMAGING WINDS and HAIL is apparent ... Northern Rockies has some surface heating with mixing in the atmosphere to provide for a mid level trough to initate some storm development with strong downdrafts for damaging winds apparent ... Central and Southern Arizona continues with monsoonal flow pattern with low level support for some strong to isolated severe cells with heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail apparent there ... Southern Mid Atlantic into the Southeast has a threat for some isolated strong to severe storms with the support of strong surface heating ahead of a diffusing cold frontal boundary with some decent instability for downburst winds and small hail as a threat ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of Wisconsin and vicinity ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 50 - 65 MPH LOCALLY HIGHER IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY, LARGE HAIL of 1 to possibly 1.5" IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HIGH LCLs with the LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR will LIMIT any TORNADO THREAT, however, we can't rule out a brief, weak spin up or two possible in any discrete supercells that do form across Central and Western Wisconsin for late this evening .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions surrounding the SLIGHT RISK region and Northeastern Idaho into Western Montana ... Central / Southern Arizona ... Central Georgia into Eastern North Carolina ...THREATS INCLUDES .. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL HAIL from PEA TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL and POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE, SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- The forecast will likely be anything for showers and storms as mentioned above bringing cooler weather in the wake of the two diffusing cold frontal boundaries across the Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains into the Northeast / Ohio Valley to the Middle Mississippi Valley ... Then we have a third frontal boundary across the Pacific Northwest to mentioned stretching into the Northern High Plains and Great Basin bringing an opportunity for showers and storms across these regions ... Monsoonal moisture in the Desert Southwest will continue to provide showers and strong to marginally locally severe storms there in portions of Central and Southern Arizona ... Localized flooding is a possibility.... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Great Saturday! Please Remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Friday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Analysis from Our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... Shortwave is ejecting out of the Great Lakes towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with an associated cold frontal boundary will provide for forcing and ascent for a few severe storms capable of WIND and HAIL, maybe an isolated tornado with the instability and daytime surface heating in place ... A mid-level ridge over the Northern Plains will have some low-level moisture on the northeastern periphery to allow for some support of a few strong to marginally severe storms for the Northern Plains for later this evening ... Widespread convection possible in the Desert Southwest due to monsoonal flow in place across Southeastern AZ ... With all this in mind, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions the Mid-Atlantic ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 50 - 65 MPH LOCALLY HIGHER IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY, LARGE HAIL of 1 to possibly 1.5" IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, A TORNADO OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS CAN ERODE and ALLOW FOR QUICK DESTABILIZATION, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A LIKELY POSSIBILITY .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions surrounding the SLIGHT RISK region and from Central New York and Northern North Carolina to Northern Arkansas ... Northeastern Wyoming to North Dakota ... Central / Southern Arizona ... THREATS INCLUDES .. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL HAIL from PEA TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL and POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE, SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- The forecast will consist in the National Outlook is the HEAVY RAINFALL with the LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING persistent across portions of the Midwest to the Ohio Valley and Northeast with the influx axis of tropical moisture riding the boundary and the disturbances as well ... We will also deal with the cold frontal boundary persisting across these regions stretching to the Carolinas and the Southeast allowing for relief from the heat and periodic showers and storms there ... Remnants of Tropical Depression Four is affecting the Florida Peninsula with heavy rainfall and potential for thunderstorms, some could become strong, and gusty winds prevailing around 30 - 40 mph possible ... Deep tropical moisture and daytime heating will trigger this event ... Very warm and tropical conditions continuing along the Eastern Seaboard and Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, relief comes over the weekend outlook ... Temperatures are continuing to be very hot out West and Desert Southwest with readings hitting the century mark and above for the short term outlook in the Great Basin to the Northern Plains ... Dry conditions will continue to enhance the fire danger in the region ... Monsoonal flow is beginning to bring some temporary relief to portions of Southern Arizona into New Mexico ... Some hope on the way there ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have an enjoyable Friday! Please remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Thursday Edition of the SEMCF National Forecast Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... A lot of uncertainty is playing out for the severe threat across the Ohio Valley and the Northeast corridor ... Thick cloud cover could hamper a lot of this along with morning convection persisting especially across the Upper Ohio Valley into Southeastern Ohio ... We will have to watch all of these features closely ... The models are trending towards a moderate destabilization across the Midwest, so a possibility does occur there in Northern MO to Central IL ... For the Northeast, MCV, mid-level disturbance is persisting with mid-level westerlies present with a mid to low level jet streak to provide the forcing and ascent along with the instability present to allow for some semi-organized convection and possible isolated supercells thunderstorms ... Stay Tuned! THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 50 - 65 MPH LOCALLY HIGHER IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY, LARGE HAIL of 1 to possibly 1.5" IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, A TORNADO OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS CAN ERODE and ALLOW FOR QUICK DESTABILIZATION, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A LIKELY POSSIBILITY .... FLOOD WATCHES ARE OUT IN MANY LOCATIONS in the SLIGHT RISK REGION ... BE AWARE and ALERTED! -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions surrounding the SLIGHT RISK across the Central High Plains to the Northeast and Mid Atlantic including the Ohio Valley ... North-Central High Plains ... Southern Portions of Arizona and New Mexico with the monsoonal flow starting up in the region ... THREATS INCLUDES .. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL HAIL from PEA TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL and POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE, SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- The forecast will consist in the National Outlook is the HEAVY RAINFALL with the LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING persistent across portions of the Midwest to the Ohio Valley and Northeast with the influx axis of tropical moisture riding the boundary and the disturbances as well ... We will also deal with the cold frontal boundary persisting across these regions stretching to the Carolinas and the Southeast allowing for relief from the heat and periodic showers and storms there ... Remnants of Tropical Depression Four is affecting the Florida Peninsula with heavy rainfall and potential for thunderstorms, some could become strong, and gusty winds prevailing around 30 - 40 mph possible ... Deep tropical moisture and daytime heating will trigger this event ... Very warm and tropical conditions continuing along the Eastern Seaboard and Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, relief comes over the weekend outlook ... Temperatures are continuing to be very hot out West and Desert Southwest with readings hitting the century mark and above for the short term outlook in the Great Basin to the Northern Plains ... Dry conditions will continue to enhance the fire danger in the region ... Monsoonal flow is beginning to bring some temporary relief to portions of Southern Arizona into New Mexico ... Some hope on the way there ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Great Thursday! Please Remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Wednesday Edition of the SEMCF's National Weather Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... We are already watching a multiple cluster of storms rolling across Southern WI into Central and Southern MI that are bringing GUSTY WINDS and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ... The forecast for severe weather WILL ALL DEPEND UPON THE CLOUDS ... If they erode, we will have rapid heating and destablization to warrant a potential severe weather event in the Lower Great Lakes ... Lots of instability, jet stream winds in the low to mid level of the atmosphere will support development for strong to likely severe supercell development with the intent of downstream destabilization in the wake of this morning's event ... For the Northern Plains to the Middle Missouri River Valley, potential for a few storms to become severe with a shortwave disturbance riding with the low level jet streaking over the reigon for some steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy to support some severe isolated cells ... Something to closely watch ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of the Central Plains to the Midwest and Great Lakes ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 50 - 65 MPH LOCALLY HIGHER IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY, LARGE HAIL of 1 to possibly 1.5" IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, A TORNADO OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY .... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions surrounding the SLIGHT RISK across the from the North Central High Plains to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast ... Across the North-Central High Plains ... and Northenr Maine ... THREATS INCLUDES .. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL HAIL from PEA TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL and POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE, SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ... POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO VERY BRIEF and WEAK SPIN UP TORNADOES can't be ruled out... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- The forecast will consist in the National Outlook is the HEAVY RAINFALL with the LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING persistent across portions of the North Central and the Ohio Valley with the progressive frontal boundary bringing the moist theta axis along this with the progressing eastward motion of Low Pressure ... Some of these forecast are bringing potential of 2 to as much as 5" of rainfall locally through Friday at the latest ... So be aware of the flooding potential in the forecast ... We are also watching that DANGEROUS HEAT RIDGE continuing to drive some extremely dangerous conditions across the Western areas of the Nation ... Some relief is on the way with diurnal driven monsoonal flow finally progressing in the Desert Southwest to bring some showers and storms to the Southwest into the Central Rockies ... Good news there ... Heat and humidity with modest instability will keep the threat for some impulse rain showers and storms across the Southeast and Gulf Coastal states for the next few days there ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Great Wednesday! Please remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Severe Weather Forecast Synopsis graphic provided by David Clayton Watson ... Thank You! Good morning on this Tuesday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following: -- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... Numerous to widespread severe weather is anticipated across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest for potential SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAIL with ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE if the conditions improved and warranted with the synoptic forcing and ascent along with an improved moist theta axis .. If conditions would improved, a COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES can't be ruled out, especially across portions of Minnesota for later this evening ... The modest strong progressive westerlies could fuel the event and we are watching closely about the potential for multiple, small scale disturbances becoming enhanced in the region where the ENHANCED RISK is out ... The Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic to Northeast also has potential thanks to a strong progressive mid level westerlies in the region allowing for some multiple convective clusters of storms developing and bringing potential for high based severe storms, main threat is very heavy rainfall with localized flooding potential on the rise there ... Northern Rockies, with the same scenario with the air mass becoming more influx with moisture and sthe westerlies growing stronger to allow for a few clusters of moderately strong to isolated severe storms to develop ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- ENHANCED RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of Minnesota into the Far Eastern Dakotas ... DAMAGING WINDS to 60 - 70 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, LOCALLY HIGHER is POSSIBLE... FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF CONDITIONS IMPROVED WITH THE MODEST THETA AXIS and SYNOPTIC FORCING, IF SO, A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY AS WELL ... LARGE HAIL to 1"- 2" in DIAMETER LOCALLY ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and FREQUENT LIGHTNING as the MAJOR THREAT for these storms ... BE ON ALERT! -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK from the across the Upper Midwest ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 50 - 65 MPH, LARGE HAIL of 1 to possibly 1.5" IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, A TORNADO OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY .... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions surrounding the SLIGHT RISK across the Central / Northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast ... Across the North-Central High Plains ... and Northenr Maine ... THREATS INCLUDES .. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL HAIL from PEA TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL and POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE, SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- The forecast will consist in the National Outlook is the HEAVY RAINFALL with the LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING persistent across portions of the North Central and the Ohio Valley with the progressive frontal boundary bringing the moist theta axis along this with the progressing eastward motion of Low Pressure ... Some of these forecast are bringing potential of 2 to as much as 5" of rainfall locally through Friday at the latest ... So be aware of the flooding potential in the forecast ... We are also watching that DANGEROUS HEAT RIDGE continuing to drive some extremely dangerous conditions across the Western areas of the Nation ... Some relief is on the way with diurnal driven monsoonal flow finally progressing in the Desert Southwest to bring some showers and storms to the Southwest into the Central Rockies ... Good news there ... Heat and humidity with modest instability will keep the threat for some impulse rain showers and storms across the Southeast and Gulf Coastal states for the next few days there ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a great Tuesday! Remember to Please Remain Weather Aware of the situation today! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Monday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... We are already watching a gradual weakening MCS over portions of IL, IN, NW OH, and Southern MI providing for some heavy rainfall, gusty to damaging winds, and some hail ... The outflow boundary associated with this MCS could possibly begin some MCV influences for the later activities for this afternoon and evening over the regions that should enhance the thunderstorm redevelopment and intensification ... However, we have to watch closely if the cloud deck will limit the destabilization ... Further West, expecting gradual air mass recovery that should intensfy the overall convective development for later today cop with a potential west to southwesterly influence winds that will help with forcing and updraft conditions to favor supercell thunderstorms to develop ... Shortwave disturbance over the Great Basin and interior Intermountain West will favor some impluses and instability to favor for some strong to severe storms developing for this afternoon and this evening in this region with a developing surface trough in the region also helping to provide a modest and moist environment potential ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of the Midwest and Southern Great Lakes ... Northern Rockies ... DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER is POSSIBLE... LARGE HAIL to 1" in DIAMETER LOCALLY ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and FREQUENT LIGHTNING as the MAJOR THREAT for these storms ... A COUPLE TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE SLIGHT RISK REGION of the MIDWEST to SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES as the environment favors for updraft rotation for supercell development ONLY if the destabilization can occur with a decaying cloud deck ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK from the Northern Rockies to the Lower Great Lakes ... THREAT includes GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL HAIL of Quarter to Nickel Sized Possible ... PRIMARY THREATS of VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and SOME LIGHTNING persisting in the strongest cells .... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... We do have to mention a bit of an update on HURRICANE EUGENE ... LOCATION: 18.1 N , 116.5 W 540 miles SW of the Southern Tip of the Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT / SPEED: NW @ 12 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 mB or 28.82" HURRICANE FORCE WINDS extends 35 miles from the center TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS extends 105 miles from the center Swells from Eugene are expected to affect the Baja California and Southern California Coastal areas beginnning this evening and through Tuesday ... Life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected in the forecast ... Stay out of the water and away from the beaches .... -- The forecast will consist in the National Outlook with the upper-level ridge continuing to provide for extremely dangerous heat conditions across the Central and Southern Rockies into the Desert Southwest with many record highs were set, once again, a few degrees higher than Friday's records ... Including a few spots reaching towards 120 degrees in portions of Arizona ... A vast area from California to Utah has HEAT ADVISORIES to EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNGINS with Dangerous Heat and Very Dry condition continuing to persist under the continuance of an very amplified, upper-level ridge, not expecting to break down anytime soon ... With the dry conditions, RED FLAG WARNINGS are posted for many locations ... Some record highs will be on the agenda, once again, with forecast afternoon highs in the upper 90s to 110s in many spots ... A Pacific cold frontal boundary is expected to proceed inland across the interior Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain region, linking up with a boundary sagging Southward across the Northern Plains that will bring a relief of rain showers and thunderstorms to the region and this is expected to cause a concern for severe weather for early to mid week across the Upper Midwest, Upper Mississippi Valley, into the Great Lakes region .. We will be monitoring the trends closely ... Excessive Rainfall Outlook has been issued for places across IL, IN, OH, where FLASH FLOODING is a high possibility with some locations, locally could receive 3 -5" and higher amounts possible ... We will keep you updated on this situation ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Great Monday! Please Remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Sunday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening .... A shortwave disturbance over Central Canada is expected to slide on Southwestward into the Upper Midwest and Upper Mississippi Valley to spawn off a few convective storms for the region into the Western Great Lakes ... Another disturbance out of the Rockies is expected to amplify with modest instability and surface heating to bring a few showers and storms that could possible become strong to ISOLATED severe bring some relief to the extreme heat in place with that amplified, upper-level ridge in place ... We are also seeing some weakening in the modest region in the Desert Southwest, particularly, Southern Arizona where some possible strong to ISOLATED severe cells could develop with the surface intense heating and some modest instability in the atmosphere ... The Southern Plains to the Gulf Coast and Southeast has a stalled frontal boundary in place with surface dewpoint rising with the modest instability from surface heating with the forcing and lifting along the front for some favorable convective activity to persist for some developing strong to ISOLATED severe cells there .... With this all in mind ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of the Upper Midwest ... DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER is POSSIBLE... LARGE HAIL to 1" in DIAMETER LOCALLY ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and FREQUENT LIGHTNING as the MAJOR THREAT for these storms ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and across the Great Lakes Region ... Northern Rockies ... Southern Arizona ... Coastal Southeastern States ... Across Portions of the Southern Plains to the Gulf Coast ... THREAT includes GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL HAIL of Quarter to Nickel Sized Possible ... PRIMARY THREATS of VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and SOME LIGHTNING persisting in the strongest cells .... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- The forecast will consist in the National Outlook with the upper-level ridge continuing to provide for extremely dangerous heat conditions across the Central and Southern Rockies into the Desert Southwest with many record highs were set, once again, a few degrees higher than Friday's records ... Including a few spots reaching towards 120 degrees in portions of Arizona ... A vast area from California to Utah has HEAT ADVISORIES to EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS with Dangerous Heat and Very Dry condition continuing to persist under the continuance of an very amplified, upper-level ridge, not expecting to break down anytime soon ... With the dry conditions, RED FLAG WARNINGS are posted for many locations ... Some record highs will be on the agenda, once again, with forecast afternoon highs in the upper 90s to 110s in many spots ... A Pacific cold frontal boundary is expected to proceed inland across the interior Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain region, linking up with a boundary sagging Southward across the Northern Plains that will bring a relief of rain showers and thunderstorms to the region and this is expected to cause a concern for severe weather for early to mid week across the Upper Midwest, Upper Mississippi Valley, into the Great Lakes region .. We will be monitoring the trends closely ... Excessive Rainfall Outlook has been issued for places across IL, IN, OH, where FLASH FLOODING is a high possibility with some locations, locally could receive 3 -5" and higher amounts possible ... We will keep you updated on this situation ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Wonderful Sunday! Please Remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Saturday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Forecast Analysis from Our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening. Advancing cold frontal boundary reaching the Eastern Seaboard could spawn off a few severe storms across the Carolinas with the unstable air mass with stronger forcing for ascent shear ... The upper-level trough will provide for some ISOLATED discrete severe storms with sufficient destabilization in the Northeast / New England corridor ... If greater destabilization could occur, there is an opportunity for an upgrade to SLIGHT RISK only if the early day precip and cloud cover hasn't hamper the instability ... Modest flow across the Central Plains and into the Desert Southwest with instability and ample moisture could spawn off strong to some ISOLATED discrete severe cells in this region ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions of the Carolinas to Southern Virginia ... DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER is POSSIBLE... LARGE HAIL to 1" in DIAMETER LOCALLY ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and FREQUENT LIGHTNING as the MAJOR THREAT for these storms ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and from the Central Plains to the Southeastern States ... Florida Pensinula ... Northeast / New England Corridor ... Southern Arizona ...THREAT includes GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL HAIL of Quarter to Nickel Sized Possible ... PRIMARY THREATS of VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and SOME LIGHTNING persisting in the strongest cells .... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- We do have some tropical weather to talk about ... TROPICAL STORM EUGENE in the EASTERN PACIFIC ... LOCATION: 12.9 N 112.1 W 705 miles to the SSW of the Southern Tip of the Baja California MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT / SPEED: NW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 mB or 29.68" EUGENE is forecast to become a HURRICANE by Sunday AM forecast Tropical Storm force winds extends 70 miles from the Center of Circulation EUGENE is NOT to affect any landmasses or coastal regions at this time ... -- The forecast will consist in the National Outlook with the upper-level ridge continuing to provide for extremely dangerous heat conditions across the Southern Rockies into the Desert Southwest with many record highs were set on Friday with 122 degrees in Palm Springs, CA and 116 degrees in Phoenix and Las Vegas ... EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS continue for the region with temperatures even hotter in the forecast for the arid and desert regions of the Desert Southwest through Sunday's forecast .... Further to the North in Great Basin and Northern Rockies, forecast highs of 90 or better is expected with a few locations touching at 100 or 105 ... 25 degrees above mid July standards in the region ... The heat is expected to expand on eastward into the Plains by early next week ... Isolated thunderstorms could bring temporary relief from the heat in the interior mountain West ... Heavy rainfall and flash flood potential persist for the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley for Sunday's forecast with a new system and cold frontal boundary sagging southward from that region ... keep this in mind ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a great Saturday! Please Remember to Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Friday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening. The amplified ridge and large scale pattern persistent across the majority of the Nation with multiple shortwave impulses progressing across the Midwest, Northeast, and Plains throughout today's forecast will allow for convective activity to persist to the EAST of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin and Southern Rockies where an amplified heat wave with EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT and FIRE DANGER persisting ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- ENHANCED RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and this evening's forecast for the region of Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio where the PRIMARY THREAT will be DAMAGING WINDS of 60 possibly 70 MPH if not higher locally, LARGE HAIL TO 1" in DIAMETER and LOCALLY HIGHER ... A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and FREQUENT LIGHTNING are MAJOR THREATS ... -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes ... DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER is POSSIBLE... LARGE HAIL to 1" in DIAMETER LOCALLY ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and FREQUENT LIGHTNING as the MAJOR THREAT for these storms ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and over portions of the Central Plains to Northeast ... Across the Carolina Piedmont ... THREAT includes GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL HAIL of Quarter to Nickel Sized Possible ... PRIMARY THREATS of VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and SOME LIGHTNING persisting in the strongest cells .... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- We do have some tropical weather to talk about ... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR LOCATION: 15.0 N 48.8 W 835 miles E of the Lesser Antilles MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT / SPEED: WNW @ 22 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1011 mb or 29.86" Weakening is expected to begin tonight on FOUR and will be forecasted to become a remnant low or tropical wave by Saturday AM with unfavorable conditions ahead of the trajectory .... -- The forecast will consist in the National Outlook of keeping an eye on the low pressure and the amplified ridge in the West ... Heavy rainfall and flooding potentials across the Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians with the low pressure center tracking through that region for tonight and overnight ... Friday is showing amplification on the model trends with the movement along the Southern New England coastal region by then ... Increasing winds will also factor into this as well ... Then we have the cold frontal boundary moving through with another round of severe weather potential for the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians as well before slightly drier air and cooler temperatures prevails in the wake of the front .... Then, the amplifing ridge over the Western areas of the Nation continues to provide well above average temperatures for the remainder of the week ahead, with many locations reaching about 20 - 25 degrees above July standards in the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies where FIRE DANGER will remain VERY HIGH with RED FLAG WARNINGS in the Interior Mountains of the regions ... EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS are issued in the Desert SouthWest There is potential possible relief in the afternoon and evening with surface heating and some instability to provide for a few isolated showers and strong to maybe some isolate discrete severe cells with gusty winds and heavy rainfall a possibility with small hail ... Keep that in mind .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Great Friday! Remember to Please Remain Weather Aware! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer |