Good morning on this Thursday Edition of the SEMCF's National Weather Outlook Analysis from our Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening. The forecast models are having a very difficult time with the handling of the dynamics and the breakdown of the event's capabilities ... We do know the upper level air pattern is amplifying as the anticyclonic flow with the adominant ridging over the West, with the trough dominating the Plains through the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley is phasing with the trough over the Great Lakes region ... A cold frontal boundary associated with low pressure moving across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest ... The progression of the cold front along with instability, forcing, and lifting will provide the ample ingredients for severe weather across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, while the shortwave disturbances in the anticyclonic flow over the Interior Mountain West where a heat wave continues will provide for a shot of a couple ISOLATED severe discrete cells ... The frontal boundary across the Mid-South through the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic with the surface heating and modest instability will allow for the development of strong to ISOLATED discrete severe cells and possible supercells to develop as well .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- ENHANCED RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and this evening's forecast for the region of the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes Region where the PRIMARY THREAT will be DAMAGING WINDS of 60 possibly 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL TO 1" in DIAMETER and LOCALLY HIGHER ... A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and FREQUENT LIGHTNING are MAJOR THREATS ... A lot of uncertainties are lying in the forecast at this present time, a lot things need to come together to make this happen, right now, the CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END of the spectrum with the situation currently ... We will keep you posted on the updates ... -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK ... DAMAGING WINDS to 60 MPH, LOCALLY ... LARGE HAIL to 1" in DIAMETER LOCALLY ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and FREQUENT LIGHTNING as the MAJOR THREAT for these storms ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for the regions SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and over portions of the Central Plains to Southern Nebraska ... Portions of Northern Louisiana and Southern Arkansas into portions of the Delmarva Peninsula ... THREAT includes GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL HAIL of Quarter to Nickel Sized Possible ... PRIMARY THREATS of VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and SOME LIGHTNING persisting in the strongest cells .... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- We do have some tropical weather to talk about, INVEST 94L became TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR during the overnight hours ... LOCATION: 13.2 N 42.6 W 1260 miles EAST of the Lesser Antilles MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT / SPEED: WNW @ 21 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 MB or 29.77" Little changes is expected in the next 48 hours and it is NOT appearing to favor any additional strengthening to a tropical storm at this time ... We will keep you all posted ... -- The forecast will consist in the National Outlook of keeping an eye on the low pressure and the amplified ridge in the West ... Heavy rainfall and flooding potentials across the Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians with the low pressure center tracking through that region for tonight and overnight ... Friday is showing amplification on the model trends with the movement along the Southern New England coastal region by then ... Increasing winds will also factor into this as well ... Then we have the cold frontal boundary moving through with another round of severe weather potential for the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians as well before slightly drier air and cooler temperatures prevails in the wake of the front .... Then, the amplifying ridge over the Western areas of the Nation continues to provide well above average temperatures for the remainder of the week ahead, with many locations reaching about 20 - 25 degrees above July standards in the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies where FIRE DANGER will remain VERY HIGH in the Interior Mountains of the regions ... There is potential possible relief in the afternoon and evening with surface heating and some instability to provide for a few isolated showers and strong to maybe some isolate discrete severe cells with gusty winds and heavy rainfall a possibility with small hail ... Keep that in mind .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Wonderful Thursday! Please REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer
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Good morning on this Wednesday Edition of our SEMCF's National Weather Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening with a well defined ridge amplifying across the Western areas of the Nation and will begin to spread into the Northern Plains ... Mid Level Flow will help to trigger some convective activity ahead of the surface cold frontal boundary progressing eastward and southward across the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Northern Plains ... Several disturbances across the Nation, namely, the Northern Rockies and the Mid South into the Southeast / Central and Southern Appalachians / Southern Mid-Atlantic will trigger off some convective strong to isolated severe cells thanks to some surface heating and modest instability in place in these regions.... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for this afternoon / evening's forecast for severe storms across a small region of the Upper Mississippi Valley where the threat for DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 65 MPH, with LOCALLY HIGHER is a possibility, LARGE HAIL 1 - 1.5" in DIAMETER, LOCALLY HIGHER is a possibility, a COUPLE TORNADOES can't be ruled out as well ... PRIMARY THREAT for VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, MINOR FLOODING, and FREQUENT LIGHTNING will accompany any storm that forms up in today's event ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for this afternoon / evening's forecast for severe storms across portions of the SURROUNDING of the SLIGHT RISK across the Northern Plains ... Upper Mississippi Valley ... Northern Great Lakes ... Also, portions of the Northern Rockies ... Threat for strong to ISOLATED severe cells could contain ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH, SMALL HAIL of quarter to nickel size in DIAMETER possible ... MAIN THREAT for VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, MINOR FLOODING, and FREQUENT LIGHTNING is a good posssibility for any storm that develops in these regions .... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- We do have some tropical weather to talk about, INVEST 94L in the Atlantic that is better defined than yesterday's forecast, however, the associated thunderstorms around the circulation is poorly organized ... It has been nearly stationary located 800 miles WSW of Cabo Verde Islands ... The odds are 70% favor for TROPICAL DEPRESSION formation either today or Thursday, otherwise, it will be progressing towards less favorable environment with high shears in place ... Movement will begin to pick up speed going WNW at 10 - 15 mph in the hours ahead ... We will continue to monitor this system's potential ... -- The forecast also is pointing out for today across the Nation of the amplified heat ridge over the Western regions of the Nation spreading into the Northern Plains ... Temperatures are beginning to reach towards dangerous highs in the 110s in the Desert Southwest where a lack of rainfall has lead to a continuation of a VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER in effect in the regions ... Temperatures will soar to the 90s across the Northern Plains / Northern Rockies / Intermountain West into the upper Midwest ... The cold front will bring some relief to the region with showers and storms in the forecast as I mentioned ... Pretty much, the Southeast still under the influence of very warm and muggy conditions will trigger with some limited instability and surface heating for showers and storms ... Some storms are expected to become strong to a few marginally severe cells, be aware of this... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Have a Wonderful Wednesday ... Remember to Please, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Fourth of July Edition of the SEMCF's National Weather Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening with a frontal boundary quasi stationary over the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic into the Plains will form some convective activity for some strong to a couple severe cells ... Frontal triple point is in Southern Canada with a warm front over the Dakotas could spawn off a few strong to a couple severe cells for the Plains ... Residual moisture from the previous MCS moved through OK and TX last evening will help to spawn a few strong to a couple severe cells over the Southern sections of the Plains ... We do have a disturbance of a weak variety over the Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic cupped with surface daytime heating and possible instability in the atmosphere could spawn off some strong to marginally severe storms across the Carolina Piedmont for later today ... Otherwise, it is a quiet Holiday... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- MARGINAL RISK is in place for this afternoon and evening's forecast across a few areas of the Nation ... Southern High Plains to the Eastern Dakotas and Northwestern Minnesota ... Portions of the Mid-South into the ARKLATEX Region ... and Southern Appalachians to the VA/NC region ... Some of these storms will contain VERY HEAVY RAINFALL leading to MINOR FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH possible, and SMALL HAIL qUarter to nickel size in diameter ... BE ON ALERT! if you have plans for today's holiday... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- We do have some tropical weather to talk about, INVEST 94L in the Atlantic that is expected to become either a TROPICAL DEPRESSION or TROPICAL STORM in the next 24 hours as it moves NW into favorable environment ... MAX WINDS at 35 mph with MAX CENTRAL PRESSURE at 1009 MB and falling ... Located 800 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands ... So we will keep a close eye on this system and the development in the next day or so .... -- The Holiday is ending with not only heavy rain and storm threats across the Central and Southern Plains into portions of the Eastern areas of the Nation ... The amplified ridge in the West continues to bring the heat, dry conditions, and HIGH FIRE DANGER to the Desert Southwest and Interior Mountains where temperatures are reaching over 100 in many spots ... Upper 90s in the interior Pacific Northwest and Interior Intermountain West ... A few shower and storms could spawn off from the strong radiational heating in the valleys that could bring some temporary relief from the heat, but not nearly enough to put a dent into this ridge pattern that will continue to persist throughout the week ahead ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... From the staff of SEMCF, we want to wish all of our followers the very best, safe, and enjoyable Fourth of July! Please REMEMBER, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Monday Edition of our SEMCF's National Weather Forecast Outlook from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening with scattered severe storms expected for this afternoon and evening hours across portions Central Plains with Low Pressure off the foothills of the Rockies with disturbances around will fire up the convective activity with instability and surface heating provided with forcing and lift with frontogenesis ... We have a cold front sagging southward from the Central Plains through the Lower Great Lakes / Ohio Valley / Northeast ... Cool and drier air mass colliding with the warm, humid air mass to the SOUTH of the frontal boundary will set the stage for some strong to ISOLATED severe storms along and SOUTH of the frontal boundary ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK is in place for today and tonight's forecast for severe weather across portions of the Central and Southern Plains where some DAMAGING GUSTS of 40 - 60 MPH with higher gusts locally possible .. LARGE HAIL to 1 to maybe 1.5" in Diameter, locally higher is possible as well ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL will persist along with FREQUENT LIGHTNING ... -- MARGINAL RISK is in place for today and tonight's forecast for severe weather across ELSEWHERE from Southen South Dakota to Northern Texas and the Southern High Plains ... Mid-South ... Northern Indiana through the Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH is a possibility ... SMALL HAIL from QUARTER to NICKEL SIZE is a possibility as well ... MAIN THREAT will be VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and FREQUENT LIGHTNING .... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- The Holiday Weekend is bringing the trough in the Eastern portions of the Nation with cooler and drier conditions with periodic showers and a thunderstorm or two possible ... Ahead of the cold turning quasi-stationary front across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, central Appalachians, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic will deal with showers and storms ... Southeast and Gulf Coast will be under the heat and humidity with afternoon and evening impluses providing for rain showers and storms to continue through the holiday forecast ... Western states will remain under a ridge that is amplifying to bring more heat and DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS across the Desert Southwest where temperatures will approach 100 - 110 degrees ... Interior mountains of the Intermountain West could approach 100 degrees with that in mind, some showers and storms are possible from the surface heating in the valley between the mountains each day, cooler along the coastal regions and the Pacific Northwest coast, while the interior Northwest will be above normal with temps in the 90s for the most part ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... From the Staff of SEMCF ... We want to wish you a Wonderful, Safe, Enjoyable, and Pleasant Happy Fourth of July to all of our followers ... Please REMEMBER, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Sunday Edition of the SEMCF's National Forecast Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening with a low pressure storm system across Central Canada advancing eastward dragging an cold frontal boundary through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and the Northeast for the course of today's event ... Weak shortwave trough is flowing through the Great Basin with larger scale ridging happening over North Central High Plains ... Pertubation is in the moisture channeling through Central Plains that will help fuel up some convective activity for this afternoon and evening over the Central and Southern Plains ... Expecting multiple clusters of convection forming over portions of the Central Plains ... We will be seeing a possible MCS developing in the SLIGHT RISK region that could bring a few problems there ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK is in place for today and tonight's forecast for severe weather across portions of the Central High Plains to portions of Iowa where some DAMAGING GUSTS of 40 - 60 MPH with higher gusts locally possible .. LARGE HAIL to 1 to maybe 1.5" in Diameter, locally higher is possible as well ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL will persist along with FREQUENT LIGHTNING ... -- MARGINAL RISK is in place for today and tonight's forecast for severe weather across areas ELSEWHERE from the majority of the High Plains to Central / Eastern Oklahoma ... The ajoining Red River Region and the Southern Lake Michigan Vicinity ... ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH is a possibility ... SMALL HAIL from QUARTER to NICKEL SIZE is a possibility as well ... MAIN THREAT will be VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING and FREQUENT LIGHTNING .... Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- The Holiday Weekend is bringing potential for some FLASH FLOODING with rain showers and strong to severe thunderstorms for the Northeast to the Southern Plains with this threat ... Be aware of this factor ... We will be seeing some non severe general thunderstorms with rain showers a possibility with daytime heating and minor instability SOUTH of the frontal boundary across the Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula ... The Western areas of the Nation is remaining on the quiet side ... A frontal system is expected to approach the West Coast, however is it going to dissipate before reaching due to strong ridging in place ... This will keep the temperatures slightly above normal across the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest ... In this case, with that dry conditions the HIGH FIRE DANGER remains an issue for the Desert Southwest so be sure to check with local fire conditions and restrictions before having a cookout or setting off fireworks to celebrate the Fourth ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Chief Meteorologist, Sam Lane, could be along to inform all of you of the latest forecast and updates with LIVE videos of these concerning nature .. Our Chief Operational Meteorologist, David Moran, is expected to be along this evening for his input and analysis of the Nation's forecast and threat on the PM EDITION of the National Storm Channel Planner ... Be sure to look out for this important update, later this evening... Have a wonderful Sunday! Please Remember to Remain Weather Aware!!! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Saturday Edition of our SEMCF's National Weather Outlook Analysis from our Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
-- SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated in the forecast for this afternoon and this evening with several disturbances, cyclonic flow and perturbation in many locations is setting up some potential for strong to severe storms ... Triple point low over Lake Huron with the warm front lifting across the Northeast with low level jet streaking through ... A new low pressure will form on the triple point by late in the afternoon and evening hours over Southern Quebec with a trailing cold front going from Southwestern TX through Lower MI including the Ozarks ... Outflow boundaries and convective coverage will increase along and ahead of the cold frontal boundary .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK is in place for today and tonight's forecast for severe weather across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England ... Also, a region of the Southern Appalachians to Mississippi... GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS to 60 - 70 MPH POSSIBLE, LARGE HAIL TO 1" in DIAMETER, A SMALL TORNADO THREAT is in MOTION, therefore, a COUPLE WEAK BRIEF TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED OUT ... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED and FREQUENT LIGHTNING will be possible as well ... -- MARGINAL THREAT for severe weather is in today and tonight's forecast covering the surrounding of the SLIGHT RISK across portions Eastern Texas through New England ... Also, portions of New Mexico through the Southern High Plains ... ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH possible, SMALL HAIL to 1" in Diameter POSSIBLE ... MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL and MINOR FLOODING is EXPECTED ...Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... -- The Holiday Weekend and early next week will be improving in the weather pattern across portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic and New England with the cooler and drier air mass in the wake of the frontal boundary ... Meanwhile, temperatures remaining above normal out West as much as 15 degrees above early July standards ... Continues to be on the dry side as well, however, some scattered showers and storms are a possibility as some disturbances moves through the Intermountain West for this afternoon ... The Fire Danger is extremely high in the Desert Southwest due to the lack of moisture especially across Arizona, so be aware of that factor ... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... If you experience flooding, PLEASE TURN AROUND, DO NOT DROWN! Report to Law Enforcement at once .... Have a great Saturday! Remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF's Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer |