SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has severe storms lining line across central and north-central Texas to portions of the Mid-South for today into the evening hours ... Upper level air pattern is intensfying along with a cyclone digging southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest .. Strong shortwave trough is across the Southern Rockies and this will be ejecting east-northeast as a postive tilted system ... The latter trough will then eject into the Central High Plains into Northern Mexico and this will deamplify across the Ozarks and setting the stages for the severe weather ... A cold frontal boundary will slightly progrees eastward and strengthen along with the dryline overtaken from the north to south on the leading frontal aboundary .. This will allow for strong to severe storms to fire up along and ahead of the cold front in the warm sector ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms across North Central Texas into portions of the Mid South where DAMAGING WINDS will become the primary threat along with TORRENTIAL RAINFALL bring MODERATE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS REGION with widespread 3 - 5" in the forecast across the Mid-South, locally higher amounts are possible as well ... LARGE to SEVERE SIZED HAIL and an ISOLATED TORNADO or TWO is a given possibility as well .. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL is a good bet for portions of Missouri for late this afternoon and evening hours ... MARGINAL RISK been introduced for this threat SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and PORTIONS OF MISSOURI ... SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS are highly advised in the threat regions .. Please allow for multiple sources to receive your forecasts, statements, and alerts ... Highly advised and essential to have a NOAA WEATHER RADIO to inform of the latest conditions and threats ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO is the best aresnal in your protection against Mother Nature ... Please be on alert for today's threats! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a frontal boundary extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern Plains as I mentioned above, will proceed eastward to the Eastern Seaboard by Thursday PM ... Showers and thunderstorms will begin development along and ahead of the boundary from the Western Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coastal Region that will proceed eastward across the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast Coastal Regions by Thursday PM .. The rainfall may become heavy at times with these storms ... Rain showers will also develop over portions of the Ohio Valley into portions of the Southern Appalachians that will expand into portions of the Southern Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast by this evening ... The rainfall also expands into the Northern Mid-Atlantic by Thursday PM ... In addition, snowfall will develop over portions of Northern New England by this evening, continuing through Thursday PM ... Snow showers will also develop over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes overnight Wednesday that will expand into portions of the Western Ohio Valley by Thursday PM ... Meanwhile, strong, upper-level energy will aid in producing snow and lower elevation rain showers over portions of the Southwest into portions of the Central/Southern Rockies by this morning ... The snowfall will proceed out of the Southwest by Wednesday evening and expanding over the Central/Southern Rockies before ending overnight Wednesday ... Finally, onshore Pacific flow ahead of the next Pacific storm system will aid in producing rain showers and higher elevation snow showers over portions of the Pacific Northwest and snow shower over portions of the Northern Rockies through Wednesday PM ... Overnight Wednesday into Thursday PM, the upper-level energy associated with the next low pressure storm system will proceed onshore over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California into the Northern Rockies ... On early Thursday AM into Thursday PM, the snow showers and lower elevation rain showers will expand into Central California and the Great Basin while the snowfall over Central California higher elevations will become heavy at times .... HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst, SEMCF/TRAPT National Storm Channel David L Saurer
0 Comments
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has an ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL threat with a few strong to severe storms over north central and northeastern Texas during the afternoon and over portions of southwest and central Texas for tonight .. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a MARGINAL RISK for this .. Be on alert! Our focus, then, turns to Wednesday's outlook, looking more concerning .. with an upper-level trough proceeding across the Rockies with a mid-level flow remaining over the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley .. The cold frontal boundary progressing over this region will form a pre-frontal trough that will go through the ARKLATEX region with a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms expected in the forecast ... The dew points will favor instability in the afternoon hours .. Thunderstorms will then form along and ahead of the boundary in the warm secor ... Rotating thunderstorms with organized multi celluar features are expected .. These will procude ISOLATED LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE and a ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT .. Bigger story is the abnormal amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture feeding the system allowing for torrential rainfall amounts and flash flooding become a real issue in the region already impact by previous rainfall events that has saturated grounds there .. Ongoing flooding issue will be more intensfied by this set up ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of Northeastern Texas .. Southern Arkansas .. Far Northern Louisiana ... and Northwestern Mississippi for a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for tomorrow afternoon and evening hours ... MARGINAL RISK will extend from the Southern Plains into the ARKLATEX and Lower Mississippi Valley .. Severe weather precautions will be necessary for this event .. Be sure to have a way of receiving multiple sources for your latest forecast, statements, and severe weather alerts ... A NOAA WEATHER RADIO would be highly essential for an event of this nature ... Please consider investing in the most important tool in notifications of hazarous weather from Mother Nature .. BE ON ALERT! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a strong frontal boundary extending across the Upper Great Lakes southeastward to the Central High Plains and going westward across the Great Basin and Southern California that is proceeding eastward to the Northeast and Central/Southern Plains by tomorrow PM .. This storm system will bring rainfall and higher elevation snowfall over portions of Central/Southern California that extends into the Southwest overnight, and into portions of the Central/Southern Rockeis by Wednesday PM ... Meanwhile, we are watching a moisture feeder from the Western Gulf of Mexico streaming on northward into the Central/Southern Plain by this afternoon .. This moisture proceeds northeastward into the Great Lakes and the Northeast by Wednesday PM .. Showers and thunderstorms will begin development over portions of the Southern Plains for this morning and then expanding into the Lower Mississippi Valley by this evening .. The aforementioned strong frontal boundary proceeds into the Southern Plains .. The showers and thunderstorms proceeds into the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley by Wednesday AM while continuing over portions of the Southern Plains .. The showers and thunderstorms expand into portions of the Southeast by Wednesday PM while continuing over portions of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains ... In addition, rain and snow showers develop along the boundary overnight Tuesday over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes .. The rain showers proceed over the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and the Central/Southern Appalachians along with portions of the Southeast by Wednesday afternoon expanding into portions of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday PM .. Additionally, snowfall will begin to develop over portions of Northern New England by Wednesday afternoon continuing through Wednesday evening ... In the meantime, onshore Pacific flow over the Pacific Northwest aids in the development of rainfall and higher elevation snowfall over the region with the snowfall expanding into portions of the Northern Rockies by Tuesday PM .. On Wednesday, rainfall and higher elevation snowfall begins development over portions of Northern California expanding southward to Central California by Wednesday PM .. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF/TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has none expected across the Nation .. Although, a few general thunderstorms could be expected for today across portions of the Southeast, Gulf Coast, deep south Texas, and portions of central/western California ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a frontal boundary extending across the Southeastern states into the Central Gulf Coastal Region that will proceed southward into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday PM and linger across portions of Florida into Tuesday PM .. The system is expected to produce rain showers and thunderstorms along portions of the central/eastern Gulf Coastal Region through this afternoon ... Rain showers will also develop over portions of the Tennessee Valley/Southeast for today that will proceed eastward to the Southeastern Coastal Regions by tonight and off the coast by the overnight hours ... Another frontal boundary is extending from the Northern High Plains to portions of the Great Basin/Northern California that will proceed eastward to the Upper Great Lakes/Central Plains into the Southwest by Tuesday PM .. The system will produce snowfall over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies and portions of Central/Northern California also for today ... As the storm system proceeds inland, the snow levels are expected to lower over the western third of the Nation .. The snowfall will end over portions of the Pacific Northwest briefly for the overnight beginning over portions of Washington state by Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours .. The snowfall will continue over portions of the Northern Rockies into portions of the Great Basin through Tuesday PM .. The snowfall also proceeds into some of the coastal mountains of Southern California Coastal Regions for this afternoon into Tuesday PM .. Finally, for this evening, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico begins to proceed northward over the Southern Plains extending northeastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley .. With the aid of upper-level jet dynamics, showers and thunderstorms will develop over portions of the Southern Plains, a few could become strong to severe by Tuesday afternoon expanding northward into the Central Plains and eastward into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday PM ... For Wednesday and Thursday, we will be watching this system as the potential for severe weather and warmer temperatures with the conditions for instability and helicity begins to rise across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley, stay tuned! HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster, Lead Weather Analyst / SEMCF and TRAPT David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has some thunderstorms expected mainly from Texas eastward along the central Gulf Coastal Region to the Carolinas for today ... A few of these storms may become capable of some hail, localized damaging winds, and a brief or weak tornado or two, mainly across Southeastern Texas and the Hill Country for today, and then across Southern Louisiana into far western Florida Panhandle for tonight .. With this threat, The Storm Prediction Center has placed a MARGINAL RISK ... BE ON THE ALERT! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a frontal boundary extending from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley and then to the Central Gulf Coastal Region proceeding eastward off the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic Coastal Region by Monday AM while lingering over portions of the Southeast through Monday PM ... The system will produce rainfall along and ahead of this boundary from the Great Lakes into portions of the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the Tennessee Valley that will procedd off the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic Coastal Region overnight Sunday .. Rainfall will continue over the Southeast/Tennessee Valley that will proceed eastard to the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern Coastal Region by Monday PM ... Showers and thunderstorms will be confined to Central/Western Gulf Coastal Region on Monday AM and proceeding to portions of the Southeast/Eastern Gulf Coastal Region by Monday PM ... Snowfall will develop over portions of Northern New England for today continuing through Monday AM .. In addition, spotty areas of rain/freezing rain will develop over portions of Northern New England on Sunday into Sunday PM .. Additionally, snowfall develops over portions of the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley that will lift northward into Canada for overnight Sunday ... Meanwhile, a frontal boundary proceeding onshore over the Pacific Northwest will proceed inland to the Northern Plains into the Northern Rockies/Great Basin and into Southern California by Monday PM .. The storm system will produce rain and higher elevation snowfall over the Pacific Northwest and snowfall over the Northern Rockies that will expand southward into portions of the Central Rockies/Great Basin into portions of Central/Northern California Coastal Region by tonight and into Central California by Monday AM into Monday PM .. Furthermore, upper-level energy over portions of the Central/Southern Rockies and Great Basin/Southwest will proceed eastward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Sunday PM .. The energy will aid in developing snowfall over portions of the Central/Southern Rockies and portions of the Great Basin that will end by Sunday PM ... HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has a very concerning manner in which everyone in the threat regions need to pay very close attention to this event .. This has a potential to be destructive throughout the ARKLATEX into the Mid to Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Southern Ohio Valley ... The Storm Prediction Center has issued the following statements: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms for today and tonight across the majority of Northeastern Texas ... Northwestern Louisiana ... Arkansas ... Southeastern Missouri .. Southern Illinois ... Far Southwestern Indiana ... Western Kentucky ... Western Tennessee ... Far Northwestern Alabama ... Northern Mississippi ... and Northern Louisiana ... SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for today and tonight SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK and extending westward into Northern Texas ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms for today and tonight SURROUNDING the ENHANCED and SLIGHT RISK regions ... The forecast is calling for a good bet of severe storms developing now through tonight in the highlighted regions above ... Good bet for DAMAGING WINDS exceeding over 60 mph locally with much higher gusts possible due to a strong, low to mid level jet streak extending over 70 kts in some places ... With the vertical shear and helicity in places .. FEW TORNADOES ARE A GOOD BET, I can't rule out one STRONG TORNADO in the line .. Something we need to watch very closely as this event goes on today ... HAIL will also become a problematic issue across Texas and ArkLaTex region with large to severe size hail a good bet ... We are definitely see some property damage along with trees and power line damage .. Some widespread power outages due to the winds are a good bet ... HEAVY RAINFALL to TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS are LIKELY and this will result in FLASH FLOODING HIGH POTENTIALS in the threat mentioned regions .. Another big issue that is currently ongoing as we speak from the previous rain events ... The biggest location of concerns from what I've gathered from the models, soundings, hodographs, and BUFKIT are regions of Northeastern Texas, majority of Arkansas (especially Central and Southwestern Arkansas) and Western Tennessee as the bulk of the threat ... This threat could expand as the updates come out later today .. Definitely something to be on the watch out for ... SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS are HIGHLY ADVISED for today's forecast .. Please have multiple sources to receive the latest forecasts, statements, and possible issuances of watches and definite warnings ... FOLKS PLEASE without QUESTION, TAKE THE ADVICE of your LOCAL METEOROLOGISTS and WEATHER TEAMS on the seriousness of this event .. THIS IS ONE NOT TO TAKE LIGHTLY .. When warnings are issues ADHERE TO THEM and SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!!! The forecasting team of the National Storm Channel will be updating the forecast around the clock today and keeping you all posted with the latest developments .... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a wave of low pressure over the Southern High Plains that is deepening rapidly as I typed this and progressing for the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday AM and continuing to proceed to James Bay, Canada by Sunday PM ... This system is producing snowfall over portions of the Central/Southern Rockies into the Central Plains that will proceed northeastward into the Upper Midwest by tonight ... By Sunday evening, the snowfall will proceed out of the Upper Great Lakes into Canada .. The snowfall will be heavy at times over the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes for the overnight Saturday into Sunday ... Addtionally, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the associated frontal boundary over poritons of the Southern Plains into the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys into portions of the Ohio Valley by tonight ... The showers and thunderstorms will proceed eastward to the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast by Sunday PM, while continuing in threat over the Central/Western Gulf Coastal Region ... In addition, rainfall will develop over portions of the Eastern/Northern Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians for this morning proceeding into the Mid-Atlantic by this evening with a few embedded thunderstorms .. The rainfall will proceed into portions of the Northeast by Sunday ... Areas of freezing rain/rain will develop over portions of the interior Northern New England on Sunday as well ... Meanwhile, one area of upper-level energy followed by a second will proceed over the Pacific Northwest proceeding southeastward to the Central/Southern Plains by Sunday PM ... With the addition of onshore, Pacific flow, coastal rainfall and higher elevation snowfall will begin development over the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies through Sunday PM ... For today, however, coastal rainfall and snowfall will begin in the Great Basin and Central Rockies by tonight into Sunday ... A second surge of coastal rainfall and higher elevation snowfall will proceed into the Northwest on Sunday into Sunday evening .. The snow levels will lower with this system for both today and Sunday .. Be aware! HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! We will be having updates on the seriousness of the severe weather event unfolding across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and Dixie Alley throughout today and tonight .. Stay Tuned! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has a few strong to marginally severe storms possible as a couple of rounds will likely impact the Southern Plains through tonight .. VERY LIMITED RISK for an elevated severe storm or two could evolve over central and northern Texas just prior to the bigger event for tomorrow .... TOMORROW'S EVENT IS TURNING MORE SIGNIFICANT!!! THIS COULD BECOME OUR FIRST MAJOR SEVERE STORM EVENT OF THE 2018 SEASON ... ENHANCED RISK for severe storms expected for portions of the ARKLATEX region into the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley impacting the metro regions of Memphis, Little Rock, Jackson TN, North Little Rock and Jonesboro ... SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for portions of Northeast Texas into the Lower and Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys which includes the metro regions of Dallas, Nashville, Arlington TX, Plano and Garland TX ... Finally, a MARGINAL RISK been introduced from portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley extending an axis north-northeastward towards to the Ohio Valley and this would include metro regions of Fort Worth, New Orleans, Louisville KY, Lexington and Fayette KY, and Birmingham .... TORNADOES, WIND DAMAGE, and HAIL will be POSSIBLE with the MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING from the early to mid afternoon through the evening hours ... We are expecting a significant shortwave trough ejecting out of the region of the Central Plains into the highlighted regions .. What we are expected is deepening of the trough and the associated surface low going negative tilt .. This would bring a warm frontal boundary northward throughout the region with a strengthening, low-level jet deepening the event to transport the rich Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region with low 60s dewpoints indicated on the forecast models ... The question remains, just how much instability could develop .. Right now, it is a marginal threat for this to persist due to two things ... CAPE being BELOW value and widespread cloud coverage in the warm sector ... Although, strong to severe storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the strong cold frontal boundary through the region ... If the jet streak can get more strength along with the vertical shear and instability, we could see a decent DAMAGING WIND EVENT along with a FEW TORNADOES .. There could be an upgrade on this event IF the thermodynamic can get more impressive in the environment .. This is something we definitely need to watch very closely and the forecasting team will keep you all up to the latest on this distinct development ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a storm system over the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley that will proceed northeastward into Southeastern Canada for the overnight ... This system will pull a frontal boundary extending from Western Ohio Valley to the Western Gulf Coastal Regions that will proceed eastward off the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic Coastal Regions then westward to a new wave of low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley by Saturday PM ... Snowfall will develop over portions of the Northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes that will lift northeastward into Canada by this evening ... Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary from the Western Gulf Coast/Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley that will lift northward into portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley by this evening ... Additional showers and thunderstorms will also develop over portions of the Central Gulf Coastal Regions by this evening ... In addition, rainfall will develop over poritons of the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic that will proceed into portions of the Northeast by this evening with snowfall developing over poritons of Northern Maine ... The rainfall will proceed off the Northeast Coastal Region/Northern Mid-Atlantic Coastal Regions by Saturday AM ... A region of rain/freezing rain will develop over portions of the interior New England by now through the evening ... Meanwhile, a developing wave of low pressure over the Southern High Plains will proceed northeastward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Saturday PM ... The associated frontal boundary will proceed from the Southern Rockies/Southwest northeastward to the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coastal Region by Saturday PM ... The storm system will produce snowfall over portions of the Great Basin/Southwest and the Central Rockies that will proceed northeastward into portions of the Central Plains and Central/Southern Rockies by Saturday AM ... The snowfall will continue to proceed into portions of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday PM ... Overnight Friday, expecting showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the associated boundary over the Southern Plains that will proceed into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday PM .. Refer to the above Severe Weather Forecast Summary for details ... Elsewhere, two regions of upper-level energy will proceed into the Pacific Northwest overnight Friday into Saturday AM continuing into portions of the Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin by Saturday PM .. Additionally, onshore flow will develop over the Pacific Northwest for today continuing into Saturday PM .. The energy wave and onshore flow pattern will aid in production of coastal rainfall and higher elevation snowfall over portions of the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Northern Rockies by this evening .. The snowfall axis will expand into poritons of the Central/Northern Rockies and Northern California/Great Basin on Saturday into Saturday PM .. Coastal rainfall will also proceed into portions of Northern California on Saturday into Saturday PM as well ... HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! We will be having updates on the seriousness of the severe weather event unfolding across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and Dixie Alley throughout today and tonight .. Stay Tuned! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has a few strong to marginally severe storms possible for today, mainly across north-central Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas where the main threat is mainly severe hail becoming possible .. Remain on alert! Our focus then turns for the weekend with a complex storm system developing and giving a concerning Severe Weather event for Saturday across a large region .. The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather across portions of Eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys ... MARGINAL RISK is expected for portions of the Southern Plains through the Ohio Valley and Southeastern states ... We are expecting a significant shortwave trough ejecting out of the region of the Central Plains into the highlighted regions .. What we are expected is deepening of the trough and the associated surface low going negative tilt .. This would bring a warm frontal boundary northward throughout the region with a strengthening, low-level jet deepening the event to transport the rich Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region with low 60s dewpoints indicated on the forecast models ... The question remains, just how much instability could develop .. Right now, it is a marginal threat for this to persist due to two things ... CAPE being BELOW value and widespread cloud coverage in the warm sector ... Although, strong to severe storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the strong cold frontal boundary through the region ... If the jet streak can get more strength along with the vertical shear and instability, we could see a decent DAMAGING WIND EVENT along with a FEW TORNADOES .. There could be an upgrade on this event IF the thermodynamic can get more impressive in the environment .. This is something we definitely need to watch very closely and the forecasting team will keep you all up to the latest on this distinct development ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the majority of the Western areas of the Nation remaining in a cold, active persistent weather pattern through the end of the week ahead thanks to a series of multiple impulses dropping southward out of the Canada and reinforcing the broad, upper-level trough entrenched over the region .. Snowfall will spread across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and into the Rockies .. Snowfall will be heavy at times as well across the higher terrain in northern California, southern Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and for portions of the Central Rockies .. The cold airmass entrenched over this region will keep the temperatures almost 25 degrees BELOW late February standards ... The waves of energy exiting the Front Range will proceed into the Plains where a quasi-stationary boundary extends from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic .. Multiple waves of heavy rainfall will be in the forecast as an influx of warm, Gulf moisture advects northbound along the boundary layer ... This rainfall is expected to occur over a board region already saturated from the recent excessive rainfall event .. A SLIGHT to MODERATE risk for FLASH FLOODING main stem river flooding will persist through the end of the week ahead over this region .. In the colder sector, we can expect widespread snowfall for portions of the Plains, Midwest, and Upper Mississippi Valley -- numerous WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for these regions ... Majority of the Eastern Seaboard lies in the warm sector of this system and will continue to have balmy temperatures topping off in the 70s and 80s, whereas, the central portions of the Nation will be mainly below freezing with temperatures as much as 25 degrees BELOW late February standards ... Finally, in regards to the threat of winter weather, there will be an approach of a wave of low pressure from the Tennessee Valley for today that will actually interact with this sufficent colder air entrenched over the Upper Ohio Valley, far northern Mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast for a stripe of some accumulating snowfall and ice .. Meanwhile, there will also be a swath of accumulating snowfall and ice across portions of the Central Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes for today into Friday as low pressure will proceed northeastward up across the regions highlighted ... HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has a few thunderstorms in the outlook from Texas to the Ohio Valley ahead of the eastward progressing cold frontal boundary through tonight .. A few storms may become strong to severe across portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana and Mississippi .. Threat includes LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS and PERHAPS A TORNADO .. Remain on Alert! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has excessive rainfall and AREAL FLOODING continuing from portions of the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region as warm, Gulf of Mexico moisture lifts northward along a slow-progressive cold frontal boundary .. Colder air behind the frontal boundary will allow for snowfall, or possibly some wintry mix/freezing rain .. Numerous WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect from central Texas to Illinois .. MINOR FLOODING is being observed across western portions of Tennessee and Mid-Mississippi Valleys .. Several locations across the Lower Great Lakes/Western Ohio Valley have MINOR FLOODING ongoing and any additional rainfall will likely exacerbate the situation ... Temperatures across the majority of the Eastern Seaboard will be well above normal for mid to late February standards with highs in the 70s with some lower 80s possible, and this has the potential to set record highs ... These late Spring-like temperatures will be short-lived ... The strong frontal boundary over the central portions of the Nation will finally proceed the Central/Northern Appalachians and colder air will spill over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region by the end of the week ahead ... Finally, upper-level energy will proceed through the Pacific Northwest and will spread snow showers from the coastal regions inland and south to northern California .. Majority of the West will have temperatures warmer than seasonal average ... HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has a few thunderstorms expected in the outlook across a broad region of the south-central portions of the Nation into the Midwest, some storms could become strong to severe for late in the afternoon and evening across ARK LA TEX vicinity and Ozarks where a MARGINAL RISK been issued by The Storm Prediction Center for ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS .. Be on the alert! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the outlook for the next couple of days being featured by a quasi stationary boundary over the Central portions of the Nation bringing the widespread rainfall and some thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and on eastward; with heavy snowfall across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley .. A narrow transition zone will set up in the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley towards the Great Lakes where freezing rain is a possibility .. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect from Nebraska to the Dakotas and eastward into northern Michigan ... Northwestern Nebraska to central South Dakota has WINTER STORM WARNINGS in place ... FLASH FLOOD WATCHES, FLOOD WARNINGS and ADVISORIES are in effect from northeastern Texas to southern Missouri and for the Lower Great Lakes region ... Forecast calling for several inches of rainfall expected along a stalled out frontal boundary over a long duration continuing all week into the weekend .. Run off from the abundance of rainfall will cause regional creeks, streams, and rivers to rise which may lead to significant flooding issues and overflowed banks .. URBANIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR with this excessive rainfall ... Finally, upper-level energy just off the Pacific Northwest Coastal Region will proceed southward to off the Central/Southern California Coastal Regions by Wednesday .. Additional upper-level energy will proceed over the Pacific Northwest for this evening into Wednesday spreading some snowfall to portions of the Pacific Northwest Coastal regions for this afternoon transitioning to rain showers along the Northwest and Northern California Coastal Regions by tonight .. The snowfall will continue just inland over portions of the Northwest mountain ranges into the interior Northern California mountains through Wednesday ... HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has a few strong to severe storms a possibility over the Southern Plains, mainly for later this afternoon and this evening as The Storm Prediction Center placed a MARGINAL RISK in place ... Damaging Winds and an isolated Tornado or Two could become possible with the dryline mixing eastward into Western Oklahoma and Western Texas during the afternoon before retreating overnight as the lee cyclone becomes established over the Central High Plains .. Be on alert and listen closely to the latest forecasts and alerts ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has widespread snowfall persisting through Tuesday across portions of the Wasatchs, Central/Northern Rockies and into the High Plains as a strong cold frontal boundary proceeds southward through the Rockies and into the Central portions of the Nation .. Accumulations are expected to reach heavy amounts at times, especially across the Central Rockies .. Arctic air will continue to entrenche into the northern states allowing for a significant drop in temperatures over the next couple of days .. Another cold frontal boundary will sag southward from Canada to reinforce the snow generator across the Northern Plains and portions of the Upper Great Lakes .. A vast area from coastal Oregon into Northern California extending all the way to upper Michigan have WINTER STORM WARNINGS and WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES .. The frontal boundary's progression through the Central regions of the Nation will be fairly slow progressive over the next few days which will set the stage for a potentially long duration wet persisting pattern for the Central/Southern Plains and the Mississippi Valley .. A steady plume of warm Gulf of Mexico moisture will transport northward along this boundary .. Scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Texas to the Great Lakes region .. An axis of 2 - 4" is forecast from eastern Texas to lower Michigan, with pockets of 5+" over northeast Texas through the Ozarks .. Thunderstorms will have little movement and/or track over the same region; which will greatly increase the flooding threat .. A MODERATE RISK for excessive rainfall is in effect for Tuesday into Wednesday ... Finally, additionally along the rain/snow line, rain and freezing rain will develop over portions of the Central Plains and into portions of the Upper Great Lakes for today through Tuesday ... HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather is not expected anywhere, nationwide .. However, a few thunderstorms are a possibility from the southern Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley for today into tonight's outlook ... Showers and sproadic thunderstorms are a possibility with lightning across northern California and Oregon coastal regions into the interior West ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has heavy precipitation on the agenda for portions of the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies expecting to spread southward into California, Great Basin, and portions of the Central Rockies as a surface cold frontal boundary plunges through ... Strong winds expected in the forecast to cause blowing and drifting snow .. Majority of the region west of the Continental Divide will have WARNINGS due to the winter weather expected with WINTER STORM WARNINGS, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, and HIGH WIND WARNINGS in effect ... This same frontal system will help to generate a few showers and thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to the Northeast by the mid-week ... An axis of higher rainfall amounts will align from northeast Texas through the Middle Mississippi Valley and to the Great Lakes region as this frontal boundary stalls out over the Central portions of the Nation ... Forecast amounts in the axis will be in the range of two to as much as four inches with some localized areas hitting near five inches .. Flooding concerns will be elevated for Tuesday with SLIGHT to MODERATE risks been issued by the Climate Prediction Center .. An area of rain/freezing rain will begin to develop across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley proceeding into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday PM ... Travel will likely become hazardous in this region of the transition zone ... HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather is not expected anywhere, nationwide .. However, isolated storms are possible for this morning across portions of north-central Texas towards the ARK-LA-TEX region, and possibly across the central Pacific Northwest for late tonight ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a vast portion of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West becoming impacted over the next few days as heavy rainfall and heavy mountain snowfall overspreads the region ... Arctic air is expected to infilter the region and surge southward as the low pressure storm system proceeds inland ... Strong onshore flow will generate heavy coastal rainfall and mountain snowfall, which is expected to spread towards the Rockies and south into the Great Basin as the frontal boundary proceeds inland through the Southwest and Central/Southern Rockies by early on Monday ... Cold Canadian air will proceed into the Central and Northern Plains, allowing for temperatures to fall below normal for mid to late February standards .. Snowfall will accompany the frontal boundary as it makes its way through the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region for the weekend and into portions of the Northeast on Monday ... Finally, a frontal boundary extending from the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Western Gulf Coast will have a wave of low pressure develop over the Central Gulf Coastal region that will begin to proceed to the northeast along the boundary ... The boundary will settle on southward over the Southeast by Sunday AM ... Scattered to widespread rainfall will span from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region .. Higher rainfall amounts and rates will increase the risk for flooding across the region with FLASH FLOOD WATCHES posted ... HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Weather Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather is not expected anywhere, nationwide .. However, a few isolated storms could become possible across far southern New Mexico into west Texas (RIO GRANDE VALLEY) for late in the afternoon through tonight... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a rather warm outlook for the majority of the eastern portions of the Nation as warm, moist air lifts on northward ahead of a cold frontal boundary ... Several locations across the region will have afternoon highs reaching up to 35 degrees above mid February standards ... This moisture will interact with that cold frontal boundary proceeding through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic generating rounds of rain showers and possible thunderstorms along the boundary layer ... Precipitation axis expected to span from the Southern Plains to the northern Mid-Atlantic, with the highest precipitation amounts concentrating over the eastern Ohio Valley and Northern Appalachians where FLOOD WATCHES and FLOOD WARNINGS are in effect .. This region is experiencing some flooding for the weekend; slight risk issued by the CPC for excessive rainfall ... As this frontal boundary proceeds southward, coverage of lighter rainfall will increase across the Southeast and Carolinas .. The airmass across the central portions of the Nation will be slightly below average for mid-February standards in the wake of the frontal passage ... Majority of the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West will be in an active wet pattern as multiple, upper-level disturbances proceeds on through ... Showers and higher elevation snow showers will increase through today across the region as the Pacific frontal system proceeds inland ... This precipitation will continue into the weekend as multiple waves proceed across these regions ... Heavy snowfall is expected in the forecast along the Washington Cascades where there are WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES in effect for today's forecast ... HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather is not expected anywhere, nationwide .. However, a few storms could become possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley mainly for this afternoon and evening hours .... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has warm and moist air lifting across the Southern Plains and Mid-Atlantic for the next few days, aiding in developing a few showers and storms along a cold frontal boundary .. The temperatures will be well above normal for mid February standards as much as 35 degrees ... These storms are capable of producing some very heavy rainfall .. This frontal boundary is forecast to proceed south and east through the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains through late Friday ... A swath of scattered rainfall is expected to hit portions of southern New Mexico to the Chesapeake Bay .. The Appalachian spine of western Pennsylvania and West Virginia is forecast to have amounts of 1 to as much as 3 inches of rainfall by early Sunday morning ... FLASH FLOOD WATCHES are in effect in this region .... A strong ridge of high pressure is proceeding into the Central and Northern Plains in the wake of the cold frontal boundary, allowing a surge of arctic air to entrenched over the region ... High temperatures are forecast to be up to 35 degrees below mid February standards .. By Friday, temperatures behind the frontal bounday will be near normal throughout the Mississippi Valley and southern Plains ... Finally, the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Desert SOuthwest will be in an active weather pattern throughout the weekend ... Onshore Pacific flow along with a series of disturbances will spread an axis of rain showers and mountain snowfall across the region ... In general, accumulations are expected to be on the lighter side than previous events ... However, given the moderate to severe drought conditions present in the Southwest and Central Great Basin, the rainfall and higher elevation snowfall should alleviate these conditions .... HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather is not expected anywhere, nationwide .. However, a few isolated storms are a possibility from the ARKLATEX and Lower Mississippi Valley into portions of the Ohio Valley through tonight's outlook ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a strong cold frontal boundary stretching east to west across southern Canada and this is expecting to sag southward to Montana and the Dakotas for this evening, bringing a few light snow showers and a reinforcement of colder air .. Today's highs are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees above mid February standards across the north-central states, however, by tomorrow, the temperatures will fall to almost 35 degrees BELOW mid February standards, quite the contrast in 24 hours ... The cold frontal boundary will continue the progression south and east for Thursday's outlook, but locations ahead of the boundary will soar into the 60s and 70s for many locations across the central/southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic coastal regions .. By Friday though, folks from Texas to the middle Mississippi Valley will see highs of 20 to as much as 45 degrees colder than comparison of Thursday's highs .. The warm air ahead of the frontal boundary will also allow modified moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico to flow on northward, helping to aid in producing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms from ARKLATEX into the Appalachians through tonight .. A second round of heavier rainfall is anticipated to develop on Thursday PM across portions of the Ohio Valley into Southwestern Pennsylvania and West Virginia, some locations could top up to three inches in a 2-day period with FLASH FLOOD WATCHES in effect ... Finally, across the Western states, a series of upper-level disturbances will allow for the majority of the regions to remain unsettled thorugh the remainder of the week ahead ... Temperatures along and west of the Continental Divide will be near or slightly below normal, which is a big chance from the recent average warmth seen over the past couple of weeks .. These systems are NOT expected to produce widespread heavy precipitation, but lower elevation rain and mountain snowfall should put a slight dent in widespread drought conditions across the Southwest and portions of the Southern Great Basin .... HAVE A GREAT VALENTINES DAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather is a good possibility with marginal damaging wind and a couple brief tornadoes with some strong to severe storms possible across Southeastern Louisian to Western Georgia through the evening hours .. The Storm Prediction Center has a MARGINAL RISK in place for this threat .. Be sure to follow your Severe Weather Precautions and have multiple sources to receive up to the latest forecast, statements, and alerts .... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a strong frontal boundary extending across the Northeastern states into Texas allowing to set the stage up for some unsettled weather for the weekend over the majority of the Eastern regions of the Nation .. Bitterly cold air, with current readings in the -10 to -20 over eastern Montana, will continue to proceed southward for today ... High temperatures over the central and northern Plains will only reach the single digits to teens, while many locations ahead of the boundary will warm into the 50s and 60s across the Mid-Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley with 70s along the Southeast coastal regions ... Several rounds of snowfall will affect the central regions of the Nation to the Northeast over the next couple of days, each disturbance producing light to locally moderate accumulations .. By Sunday AM, an additional 6 - 12" of snowfall is in the forecast in the higher terrain of the Colorado Rockies with 3 - 6" expected from northern New York into far northern New England .. Lighter amounts in between, from the Colorado Rockies into the central Great Lakes ... On the warm side of this cold frontal boundary, moisture is expected to surge northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern and southern regions of the Nation, supporting a broad threat of flooding today for the Central Gulf Coastal Region into the northern Mid-Atlantic with a greater focus over Tennessee into the southern Appalachians where roughly two to four inches of rainfall will be a strong possibility through Sunday ... FLASH FLOOD WATCHES are in effect for these regions ... In between the axis of snow and rain will be a transition region of freezing rain with light to perhaps locally moderate icing possible from the middle Mississippi Valley, along the Ohio River and into interior regions of the Northeast ... Finally, out West, temperatures are forecast to drop back closer to normal behind a series of cold frontal boundaries .. Light mountain snowfall and lower elevation rain will follow a cold frontal boundary that is proceeding south across the Four Corners region for today ... Outside of Colorado, snowfall accumulations from this particular system should be on the light side of the equation .. A second cold frontal boundary will enter the Pacific Northwest for Sunday PM brining a potential for light snow to the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin ... Precipitation totals from these systems is forecast to be light through Monday AM ... HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Your Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather is not expected anywhere across the Nation .. A few thunderstorms could develop across portions of Southeast Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeastern states mainly for later today and tonight .. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has an Arctic frontal boundary currently near the Continental Divide that extends across portions of central Plains is continuing the motion to the south over the next couple of days ... This is allowing for a steady surge of cold conditions across portions of the Northern Tiers of the Nation from Montana to Wisconsin, with subzero lows and highs in the single digits to teens for Friday .. A slow moderating trend is expected over the weekend ... Milder conditions will be expected to continue across portions of California and the Desert Southwest with no rain or snow in the forecast .. It will also be quite mild for the Gulf Coastal region and especially across the Florida Peninsula with the frontal boundary expected to stall and then lift on northward as a warm front .. Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected to develop from Louisiana to the Mid-Atlantic region going through the weekend ahead of a slow-moving cold frontal boundary .. Rainfall amounts of 1 - 3" is appearing to be a likelihood at this time .. Finally, snowfall will make the headlines across the greater Chicago to Detroit for today's forecast, with WINTER STORM WARNINGS and ADVISORIES in effect .. This snow event will also make it on up into Upstate New York and New England by this evening and Saturday .. The forecast is calling for heavy snowfall for the central and northern Rockies as the arctic frontal boundary and upper-level forcing proceeds into the region ... HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Your Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
No Severe Weather expected in the forecast nor any thunderstorms nationwide ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has some higher elevation snowfall in the forecast to continue the persistent pattern across the northern Rockies as an Arctic boundary drapes along the mountain ranges .. As the energy from the upper-level low proceeds southward tonight, so will this boundary in addition to the snowfall spreading into the Plains .. By Friday, an intense axis of snow will advance across portions of the Mississippi Valley and into the lower Great Lakes region -- impacting regions in Chicago and Detroit .. This band should be mainly brief and end by the end of the day; however, a significant amount of snowfall is expected .. Meanwhile, higher elevation snowfall along the northern Rockies will begin to taper off by Friday PM .. Ligher snow showers will also continue southward into Nebraska and Kansas .. As the Arctic cold frontal boundary progresses on southward into the southern Plains on Friday PM into Saturday AM, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin streaming on northward .. As a result, expecting a wintry mix particularly in northeastern Oklahoma overnight Friday and into the morning hours on Saturday .. Showers and storms will be in the forecast and expected across the central and western Gulf Coast ... The western regions of the Nation will remain on the dry and warm side through Saturday with temperatures approaching near 25 degrees above mid February standards .. The Pacific Northwest will become near normal for today as light precipitation proceeds into the region .. The Eastern Seaboard and Southeast will also experience warm conditions for today and Saturday .. In contrast, the Plains and Upper Midwest will be below average for mid February standards due to the Arctic airmass proceeding over the region through Saturday -- with high temperatures as much as 30 to 35 degrees below mid February standards ... HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Weather Forecast and Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather bring some isolated to scattered possible severe thunderstorms to the Lower Mississippi Valley as a complex low pressure storm system begins to strength out of the Panhandle of Oklahoma and Texas advancing northeastward with a complex spectrum of weather in the cold sector while in the warm sector, this ... The Storm Prediction Center has as MARGINAL RISK in affect for Eastern Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley for late this afternoon and evening, as the threat for some isolated severe hail above 2" in diameter is a possibility in some good supercells, so be on the alert .. Be sure to have Severe Weather Precautions in motion .. Have multiple sources to receive your updated forecast, statements, and possible alerts coming then .. Stay Tuned! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has an interesting pattern of weather for the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies where tranquil pattern will prevail with generally lesser rainfall and snowfall for now, however the pattern is expected to become very active, once again, with unsettled conditions in the mid to latter half of the week ahead as a new low pressure storm system drops out of British Columbia, Canada .. This is allowing for a new surge of Pacific moisture to approach the region with rain to coastal regions and heavy mountain snowfall up to 3 feet in some ranges in the interior Pacific Northwest ... Some heavy snowfall could also be expected further to the ast out in the northern High Plains and especially in the Northern Intermountain West where up to 6 inches or moer is a good possibility, locally ... The remainder of the Western regions of the Nation will be quite the opposite as the high persist over the Great Basin keeping the conditions very mild and dry .. In fact, high temperatures are forecast as much as 25 degrees above early February standards across the region ... Some record warmth will be a good possibility ahead of the next storm stystem approaching the Pacific Northwest, while warmer air pools in the Great Basin ... Colder and drier conditions are settled over the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast and there will be yet, another cold frontal boundary approaching this region for today which will help to reinforce the arctic chill through mid week .. This will be a very important feature in setting up the stage for the next major winter event and system impacting the region and developing over the lower Mississippi Valley by late today and then expecting to lift northeast up across the Tennessee Valley, central Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England through Wednesday's forecast ... heavy snowfall axis is expected north and west of the track of low pressure and areas across the Northern Mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast could see anywhere from 6 - 12" "where bandings persist" ... Just south of the axis of heavy snow, expecting a narrow band of freezing rain and sleet which will extend from the Ohio Valley northeastward up across southern New England .. Some locally significant icing accumulations are expected .. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, WINTER STORM WATCHES and WARNINGS are going in motion later today .. Check with your local National Weather Service page for all the details in your region and the latest advisories ... Finally, further to the South across the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast, the concern is for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms associated with the same feature driving the winter weather as I mentioned above .. In fact, some very heavy rainfall totals will be likely possible for this evening and overnight in protions of the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley as a strong surge of active moisture surges northward from the Gulf of Mexico and help to focus an axis of training rain showers and thunderstorms ... Runoff problems and flash flooding is a good possibility .. Gradually, this heavy rainfall axis will proceed off to the east and impacts the remainder of the Gulf Coast and Southeast through late on Wednesday ... HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather is not expecting any severe weather for your outlook ... Some storms COULD develop overnight in portions of the Mississippi Delta region, looking slim at this time ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has some calm and tranquil weather after a period of active activity across the Eastern and Southern portions of the Nation for today as we start out the first full week of February .. Drier and mainly cold conditions are in place as high pressure takes shape over the Ohio Valley shifting towards the Mid-Atlantic by tonight .. However, this dry period is very brief as the energy wave advancing southeast from the Pacific Northwest and out across the Plains will begin to organize an area of low pressure across the Lower Mississippi Valley by late on Tuesday ... This developing wave of low pressure is tapping a big energy surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and this will result in an axis of very heavy rainfall of a widespread variety across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys along with some storms for late on Tuesday going into Wednesday early morning .. Locally as much as a few inches of rainfall is a good possibility across these locations and a result of runoff concerns and possible flooding is rising .. This storm system is expected to pull northeast across the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, and this will ultimately bring widespread precipitation to regions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast through late on Wednesday .. Heavy snowfall in the forecast for an narrow axis of freezing rain and ice can be expected north and west of the low track and regions of the northern Mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast will see the heaviest snowfall accumulations with some areas receiving between six to a foot of snowfall .. Farther to the South, there will be plenty of rain showers and possible thunderstorms from the Southeasat to the Gulf Coastal region ... Regions around the Pacific Northwest, and the central/northern Rockies will see additional unsettled weather at least through the early portion of the week ahead, but a deeper fetch of Pacific moisture has been impacting this region over the last several days should begin to finally thin out which will end the threat for heavy rain/snow ... Regardless, however, there will still be as much as additional foot of snowfall across the Cascades and interior mountain ranges of he Northwest and northern Rockies ... Some heavy snowfall will also be a possibility across the northern and western Colorado high country .. The remainder of the Western areas of the Nation will remain rather mild and dry with temperatures as much as 25 degrees above early February standards settle in place ... Finally, meanwhile, the regions east of the spine of the central/northern Rockies and especially across the northern Plains and upper Midwest will be seeing temperatures dropping dramatically and remaining much colder as this region of the Nation will continue to see intrusions of arctic air dropping southward from Canada .. This will foster temperatures locally as much as 25 degrees below early Feburary standards with actual daytime forecast highs in the single digits with overnight lows as much as 25 degrees below zero! HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather is not expecting any severe weather for your outlook ... Thunderstorms are NOT expected anywhere across the Continental Lower 48 ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a unsettled and quite an active pattern indeed for the next several days across portions of the Pacific Northwest and then spreading over the Northern Rockies with series of systems over the Gulf of Alaska sagging on southward and inland across the region .. Heavy rainfall is indeed in the forecast, especially the coastal regions of Washington, however, for the higher terrain and adjacent Cascades, especially interior areas of the Northern Rockies we could be seeing some pretty impressive heavy accumulations of snowfall up to three feet in some areas throughout the weekend ahead ... Look at the Eastern portions of the Nation, we are watching in the wake of the cold frontal boundary, an Arctic high pressure over the Midwest will proceed eastward and expecting daytime highs across the majority of this region as much as 25 below early February standards .. The high will advance quickly eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic for Saturday and then exceed offshore for Sunday .. This will allow for temperatures to rebound a bit as southerly winds return to the forecast ... However, this area of high pressure proceeds offshore, a complex storm system will begin developing across the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley as some of this energy impacting the Pacific Northwest drop southeastward .. Multiple waves of low pressure will impact the broader Midwest for this weekend and foster a threat for accumulating snowfall across the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and the Northeast .. Generally a cold rain with some wet snowflakes mixing in initally some pockets of freezing rain could be expected over the Mid-Atlantic ... Heavier rains meanwhile is expected further south from the Tennessee Valley south to the Gulf coastal states and portions of the Southeast as a seperate area of low pressure impact this region and bringing plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture ... Much colder air is reinforcing with the arctic high pressure expecting to drop southward from Canada on Sunday and begin to spill over the majority of the Northern areas of the Nation and with a particular focus on the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest .. Daytime highs will only reach the single digits and nighttime lows will be well below zero .. These temperatures will be along with some dangerously low wind chills values as well ... Finally, the remainder of the Nation will be expecting to see drier conditions throughout the weekend and this will include the Desert Southwest where again temperatures will be above early February standards .... HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather is not expecting any severe weather for your outlook ... Thunderstorms are NOT expected anywhere across the Continental Lower 48 ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a frontal boundary extending across the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains expecting to proceed off the Eastern Seaboard overnight Thursday into Friday AM .. This system will be responsible for some snowfall from the Northeast to the Lower Great Lakes and over the Upper Great Lakes with rain showers over the Central and Eastern Ohio Valley returning over to snowfall for the Western Ohio Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley for mid to late morning today .. The snowfall will continue over Northern New England and expanding the axis into the Central Appalachians and portions of the Ohio Valley by this evening ... The light snow showers will then proceed into Southern New England and then the Northern Mid-Atlantic by tomorrow AM, expecting to proceed off the coastal regions by Friday evening ... The rain showers are expecting to expand for Thursday evening across Southern New England and extending that axis southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by the overnight ... The rain will then proceed eastward off the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and then the Central and Eastern Gulf Coastal Region by tomorrow PM ... In the wake of the system, lake enhanced snow showers are expected to develop in the favored downwinded areas of the Great Lakes beginning tonight into Friday PM ... Finally, meanwhile, the multiple upper-level impulses are expecting to proceed over the Central and Northern Rockies aiding in producing snowfall that will increase in threat and decrease of the region for late Thursday into Friday PM .. In addition, Pacific onshore flow pattern will aid in producing additional rain showers and higher elevation snow showers over portions of the Pacific Northwest through Friday PM ... Upper-level ridging then begins to develop in the forecast over the Pacific Northwest for Friday that will allow the snow levels to rise up over the Pacific Northwest ... HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer |