Good morning on this Saturday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
We are seeing some modest northwesterly flow aloft across the Central Plains with multiple waves of influx embedded in the flow to allow for some developing convective activities warranting a SLIGHT RISK ... There is a possibility, we could be seeing some rotating and bowing segments throughout the SLIGHT RISK regions ... New England states are dealing with some convective development a possibility along and ahead of the strong cold front moving through the region with an upper level trough in place to help with some development of isolated cells ... not too impressive, but enough to cause a little concern ... We could see a few organized showers and storms across the Central and Southern Rockies with sufficient instability in place with low level wind support being weak .. However, we do have deep layer vertical shear in place for updraft forcing to allow a possibility of a couple cells that could very well have some weak rotation ... Gusty winds will be the main threat there ... With all this in mind ... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecsat for portions of Kansas ... Northern Oklahoma ... and Western Missouri ... THREATS are DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH; LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE, LARGE HAIL .25 to 2" ; LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE, A COUPLE TORNADOES ... MAIN THREAT is HEAVY RAINFALL and FREQUENT LIGHTNING ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Central Plains ... portions of New England ... portions of the Great Basins ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: INVEST 99L Showers and thunderstorms associated with an enlongated area of low pressure extending more than a thousand miles SW of Cabo Verde Islands have NOT shown signs of organization during the past day or two ... However, environmental conditions still appear conducive for this system to consolidate and become a TROPICAL DEPRESSION for sometime this upcoming week as this moves W to NW at 10 - 15 MPH ... ODDS are at 70% INVEST 90L Showers and thunderstorms activity has increased overnight near a tropical wave located over the Central Caribbean Sea ... This system is expected to move W to NW at 10 - 15 MPH ... Some development is a possibility over the NW Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, and then again during the mid week while it is over the Bay of Campeche ... Development would likely NOT occur if this system moves inland over Central America and Southeastern Mexico and do NOT re-emerge over water .... PACIFIC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN - E LOCATION: 19.2N 111.4W 40 miles NW of Socorro Islands MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 9 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 mB or 29.65" The depression is moving NW and will continue in the general motion through Sunday ... Weakening is in the forecast, and the depression is expected to become a REMNANT LOW later today .... -- The forecast across the Nation is showing a strong cold frontal boundary that is proceeding through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states as we speak ... This will produce rain showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the frontal boundary ... Rainfall is expected to be forecast and heavy at times with amounts of one inch or more expected over the Northeast ... The frontal boundary is expected to stall over the Southeast with heavy rainfall expected and generous amounts forecast in the range of 1 to as much as 3 inches locally for the Southern Appalachians ... A boundary near the Gulf Coast will also act as a focus for showers and storms with heavy rainfall in the forecast with some locations in the next few days exceeding two inches with heavier amounts expected locally .... The region having the highest potential for some generous amounts of rainfall will be the Central / Southern Plains where forecast common amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be expected with localized amounts up to 5+ a possibility especially over Western Missouri, Northwestern Arkansas, and Eastern Oklahoma where FLASH FLOODING conditions are warranted with SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISKS for excessive rainfall are in effect ... Be aware of this factor ... Showers and storms are in the forecast for the Central / Southern Rockies into the Desert Southwest where some storms with the help of daytime heating and monsoonal moisture could produce isolated heavy downpours leading to flash flooding ... Be aware of this alert! Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Saturday! Also, to please, REMEMBER, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer
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Good morning on this Friday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Forecast Outlook Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
Morning convection is underway across the Ohio Valley in advance of the cold frontal boundary .. Relatively clear skies ahead of this convective activity should help to destabilize and quickly warm the atmosphere prime for severe storms through the afternoon and early to mid evening before sunset ... A few showers and storms expected across the Central High Plains with moist boundary layer and forcing ascent along the foothills of the Rockies proceeding into the Plains .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecsat for portions of the Upper Ohio Valley into New York State ... THREATS are DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH; LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE, LARGE HAIL .25 to 2" ; LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE, A COUPLE TORNADOES ... MAIN THREAT is HEAVY RAINFALL and FREQUENT LIGHTNING ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the NOrtheast into the Southern Appalachians ... Central High Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: INVEST 99L A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized rain showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles S and SW of Cabo Verde Islands ... Environmental Conditions are conducive for this system to consolidate and develop during the next few days to a TROPICAL DEPRESSION that is likely to form by early next week while progressing WNW @ 15 mph across the Tropical Atlantic Ocean ... ODDS at 80% ... PACIFIC: INVEST 91E An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico is moving WNW @ 15 - 20 MPH ... Although, the environment is moderately supportive of development, this system appears to be developing a low-level circulation, only a small increase in organization of rain showers and thunderstorms would result in the formation of a TROPICAL DEPRESSION ... After about 24 hours, the environment is forecast to become less favorable which should cause the low pressure system to dissipate withing a few days ... 80% ODDS ... -- The forecast across the Nation is showing a MAJOR HEAT WAVE with OPPRESSIVE HEAT causing a concern across the majority of the Intermountain West into the Pacific Northwest ... The impressive, upper-level ridge continues to amplify with record-setting high temperatures in the triple digits all over Washington to the interior valleys of California away from the coastal regions ... EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS are in effect for many locations ... HEAT PRECAUTIONS are necessary ... A cold frontal boundary is proceeding through the Central and Northern Plains providing for the threat for severe weather, but in the wake of the front is UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR for August standards where temperatures in the range of 5 to as much as 20 degrees below normal is expected through the weekend in the region ... This air mass is spreading eastward to the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley for Friday, into the weekend outlook for the Northeast / New England / Mid-Atlantic .... Southwestern regions of the Nation continues under the monsoonal flow pattern for persistent showers and thunderstorms across Southeastern Arizona through Western Texas with heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding become more numerous in threat ... Ample moisture along the Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula associated with tropical moisture surging and a disturbance to watch closely will continue the threat for showers and storms through the weekend .... Vast portions of the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas is in an unsettled pattern where a boundary will act as a focus for convective showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall .. Forecast amounts of 1 to 2 inches is in the agenda for the weekend outlook ... Some isolated amounts of 3+ inches is a possibility ... The warm frontal boundary attached to the surface low will begin to proceed northward across the Carolinas, which could generate additional rain showers and thunderstorms along the coastline; however, the heaviest rainfall will remain offshore, good news there .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Friday! Also remember to please, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Thursday Edition of our SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis by our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following: We are watching several features setting up the stage for the convective forecast across the Nation ... A shortwave trough over the Northern Plains continuing to amplify and close off as it proceeds across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Western Great Lakes ... A surface low with a cold front is expected to steadily deepen as it proceeds into the Great Lakes region ... A lot of uncertainities with this forecast in the range of cloud coverage, however, the instability and parameters are all in place ... A lot of strong boundary heating is going on in the Southern Plains and this could inhibit convective activity for today ... The relatively steep low level lapse rates over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will support for some strong to marginally severe cells for this afternoon and evening as well ... All these features, the latest is as follows .... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecsat for portions of the Midwest ... THREATS are DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH; LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE, LARGE HAIL .25 to 2" ; LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE, A COUPLE TORNADOES ... MAIN THREAT is HEAVY RAINFALL and FREQUENT LIGHTNING ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Midwest and Lower Missouri Valley to the Great Lakes ... Mid-Atlantic / Northeast .... South Central High Plains THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: ATLANTIC: INVEST 99L A large region of showers and thunderstorms about 500 miles SE of Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a vigorous tropical wave ... Environmental Conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a TROPICAL DEPRESSION could form by early next week over the Central / Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean ... This system is moving W to WNW at 10 - 15 MPH for the next several days with the odds on favor at 60% for further development ... PACIFIC: INVEST 91E A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles SW of Acapulco, Mexico that is continuing to produce rain showers and thunderstorms ... Although, some development is a possibility for the next 48 hours, a surface circulation does NOT currently exist and environmental conditions warranted in the forecast to become UNFAVORABLE for further development over the weekend ... This disturbance is moving WNW at 15 MPH with odds on favor of only 20% for further development at this time .... -- The forecast across the Nation is showing a MAJOR HEAT WAVE causing a concern across the majority of the Intermountain West into the Pacific Northwest ... The impressive, upper-level ridge continues to amplify with record-setting high temperatures in the triple digits all over Washington to the interior valleys of California away from the coastal regions ... EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS are in effect for many locations ... HEAT PRECAUTIONS are necessary ... A cold frontal boundary is proceeding through the Central and Northern Plains providing for the threat for severe weather, but in the wake of the front is UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR for August standards where temperatures in the range of 5 to as much as 20 degrees below normal is expected through the weekend in the region ... This air mass is spreading eastward to the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley for Friday, into the weekend outlook for the Northeast / New England / Mid-Atlantic .... Southwestern regions of the Nation continues under the monsoonal flow pattern for persistent showers and thunderstorms across Southeastern Arizona through Western Texas with heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding become more numerous in threat ... Ample moisture along the Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula associated with tropical moisture surging and a disturbance to watch closely will continue the threat for showers and storms through the weekend .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a wonderful Thursday! Also, remember to please, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer Good morning on this Wednesday Edition of the SEMCF National Weather Outlook Forecast Analysis from our Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer ... Today's forecast across the Nation has the following:
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER has introduced the following forecast for today and tonight's severe weather outlook (SUBJECTIVE TO CHANGES in the FORECAST so be sure to check your latest forecast for updates) -- SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the North-Central Plains ... THREATS are DAMAGING WINDS of 60 - 70 MPH; LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE, LARGE HAIL .25 to 2" ; LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE, A COUPLE TORNADOES ... MAIN THREAT is HEAVY RAINFALL and FREQUENT LIGHTNING ... -- MARGINAL RISK has been introduced for the threat for this afternoon and evening's forecast for portions of the Northern Plains .... Central / Southern Florida Peninsula associated with Tropical Storm EMILY ... Portions of the High Plains ... THREAT includes GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS of 40 - 60 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL of PEA to NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with potential for LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING is POSSIBLE .... BE AWARE and ALERTED! Be on alert for today's severe weather threat by following your local media outlet and the National Weather Service .... TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: Nothing is expected in both basins ... However, we are closely monitoring the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico to the West of Apalachee Bay, FL .. This is causing the heavy rainfall and moisture surging into the Florida Peninsula .... -- The forecast across the Nation is showing a MAJOR HEAT WAVE causing a concern across the majority of the Intermountain West into the Pacific Northwest ... The impressive, upper-level ridge continues to amplify with record-setting high temperatures in the triple digits all over Washington to the interior valleys of California away from the coastal regions ... EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS are in effect for many locations ... HEAT PRECAUTIONS are necessary ... A cold frontal boundary is proceeding through the Central and Northern Plains providing for the threat for severe weather, but in the wake of the front is UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR for August standards here temperatures in the range of 5 to as much as 20 degrees below normal is expected through the weekend in the region ... This air mass is spreading eastward to the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley for Friday, into the weekend outlook for the Northeast / New England / Mid-Atlantic .... Southwestern regions of the Nation continues under the monsoonal flow pattern for persistent showers and thunderstorms across Southeastern Arizona through Western Texas with heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding become more numerous in threat ... Ample moisture along the Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula associated with tropical moisture surging and a disturbance to watch closely will continue the threat for showers and storms through the weekend .... Be sure to practice your SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS for today's event ... listening to NOAA WEATHER RADIO if you do have one for all the latest statements, forecast, watches and warnings as they are issued ... If not, you can follow along with weather.gov for the latest statements ... On your smartphone, FEMA app on both platform, as well as, AMERICAN RED CROSS -- TORNADO are great apps to follow the latest alerts ... Finally, if you are remaining at home, the best bet will be following your local forecast with your favorite media weather outlets ... Please have a safe Wednesday! Please, also remember, to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst, David L Saurer |