SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's forecast for severe weather showing a SLIGHT RISK over portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern States with strong to severe thunderstorms forming along and ahead of the cold frontal boundary ... We do have a MARGINAL RISK in place for the ARKLATEX into the Lower Mississippi Valley to New England ... Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening in the with the strong storms containing DAMAGING WINDS 40 up to 70 MPH, LOCALLY ... SMALL TO VERY LARGE HAIL .25 to 2" in DIAMETER, LOCALLY HIGHER is a possibility ... A COUPLE TORNADOES can't be ruled out in the strongest cells .. We do expect DANGEROUS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with URBANIZED FLOODING a possibility ... Be sure to remain aware of the conditions and have multiple ways to receive alerts and updates ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: The tropics are active in both oceans ... Going to continue to be this way for several days ahead in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins ... HURRICANE IRMA IRMA is now an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE with PREPARATIONS NEEDING TO BE RUSHED in the HURRICANE WARNINGS REGIONS ... NEW ADVISORIES OUT: HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT for: ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, ANGUILLA, MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS, and NEVIS SABA, ST. EUSTATIUS, and SINT MARRTEN SAINT MARTIN and SAINT BARTHELEMY BRITISH and US VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO, VIEQUES, and CULEBRA HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT for the following: GUADELOUPE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC from CABO ENGANO to the NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT for the following: GUADELOUPE DOMINICA TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT for the following: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC from SOUTH of CABO ENGAO to ISLA SANOA IRMA is located about 270 miles East of Antigua or 280 miles East-Southeast of Barbuda moving westerly at 14 mph and forecast to hit the Northern Leeward Islands by tonight ... IRMA is expected to continue West and then gradually turn west-northwest tonight with the forecast track, the dangerous core of IRMA will move near or over portions of the Northern Leeward Islands by tonight or early Wednesday morning ... IRMA has max sustained winds of 175 mph with higher gusts ... IRMA is fluctuating in strength and WILL REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE in the next day or so ... We could see a downgrade to a DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ... Hurricane forced winds extends outward up to 45 miles from the center of circulation, while Tropical Storm winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center of circulation ... Latest forecast for STORM SURGE: Forecast is for 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels along the coastal regions of Northern Leeward Islands within the Hurricane Warning region near and to the North of the center of IRMA ... Large and destructive waves are expected with DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS as well ... BRITISH and US VIRGIN ISLAND exception of ST CROIX ... 7 to 11 feet NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO ... 2 to 4 feet SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO and ST CROIX ... 1 to 2 feet WIND FORECAST: HURRICANE conditions are expected in the Warning area by tonight, with TROPICAL STORM conditions expected by late afternoon ... HURRICANE CONDITIONS will be possible within the WATCH area by early Thursday morning RAINFALL FORECAST: Total rainfall amounts in the forecast by the computer models of 4 to 8 inches for the Leeward Islands ... Isolated up to 10 - 12 inches expected with these causing life threatening flash flooding and mud slides ... INVEST 94L UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOSE ... 10th TROPICAL SYSTEM of the SEASON named in the OPEN ATLANTIC Tropical Storm JOSE ... LOCATION: 12.3N 39.1W 1505 MILES E of the LESSER ANTILLES MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 13 MPH MIN CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 mB or 29.77" Jose is moving WNW at 13 mph and expected some strengthening in the next 48 hours and will be moving west to west-northwest in the next 48 hours with a slightly faster speed ... Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend over 45 miles form the center of circulation ... INVEST 95L in the SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO bears watching closely: A trough of low pressure located in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized region of showers and thunderstorms ... Environmental Conditions are marginally conducive for some slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward and remains over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days ... HIGH ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT .. 70% NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the cold frontal boundary bringing the unseasonably chilly air behind it ... Ahead of the front is the storm threat I mentioned above ... Heavy rainfall is expected in the forecast for the Mid-Atlantic so be aware of that ... Additionally, upper-level energy with tropical moisture will aid in convection and showers across Florida through Wednesday night ... Leftover moisture from LIDIA will continue to effect the forecast across the Desert Southwest/Southern California into the Central and Southern Rockies through Wednesday evening with showers and storms there ... Temperatures along the West Coast will begin a cooling trend over the next few days with low pressure approach to the Northern Pacific Coast ... Good news there ... Please have a wonderful Tuesday! Please also remember to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer
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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
A few strong to severe storms are a possibility for later today and tonight across northern portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin, maybe a cell or two in extreme Western Upper Michigan could contain some GUSTY WINDS of 40 - 60 mph and SMALL HAIL to PENNY SIZE ... Be on alert! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: The tropics are active in both oceans ... Going to continue to be this way for several days ahead in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins ... HURRICANE IRMA IRMA continues to flucatuate in strength, but now is a MAJOR CATEGORY 3 hurricane as of now moving to the west-southwest and interests in the Leeward Islands need to monitor the progression of this system ... We've been receiving many messages asking about the landfall capabilities future forecast of IRMA ... Right now, HIGH UNCERTAINITY in both trajectory and strength ... Therefore, we CANNOT answer these questions at this time being 7-8 days away from an actual accurate forecast for this portion of the time line ... So be aware ... We will address everyone along the Eastern Seaboard from Florida to Long Island to monitor all the forecast from the National Hurricane Center for all the latest ... IRMA is located about 885 miles to the E of the Leeward Islands with max sustained winds of 115 mph with higher gusts and moving west-southwardward at 14 mph ... She is expected to go west-southwest in the next 48 hours and with a slow down in forward speed as well .. a turn to the West is forecast for Monday ... She is expecting to strengthen some for the next 48 hours and COULD become a Category 4 heading NW into the Caribbean, that is yet to be seen but the confidence is rising on that motion... Hurricane forced winds extends outward up to 25 miles from the center of circulation, while Tropical Storm winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center of circulation ... INVEST SYSTEM NEAR CABO VERDE ISLANDS: A tropical wave located several hundred miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that are currently displaced well to the West of the wave axis ... Environmental Conditions are conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a TROPICAL DEPRESSION could form by the end of the week ahead while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 mph over the Tropical Atlantic ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT .. 60% PACIFIC BASIN: TROPICAL STORM LIDIA: LIDIA has now degenerated to a REMNANT LOW and this will be the last forecast outlook as well ... LIDIA is located about 40 miles to the SW of Punta Baja, Mexico with max sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts moving NW at 8 mph LIDIA moving NW and will continue this motion with a faster speed out into the open Eastern Pacific Ocean for tonight and turn west-northwest during tonight's time frame Max sustained winds of 35 mph and will disspate completely by Monday's outlook... Rainfall forecast for the region is about 1-2" as the storm weakens over the BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHERN REGIONS ... Tropical moisture from LIDIA will spread across the Desert Southwest this holiday weekend with an increase in scattered rain showers across Southern Nevada, Western Arizona, and Southern California ... One last thing to mention will be SWELLS generated by LIDIA will cause Life threatening rip currents and heavy surf for the Baja Peninsula of Southern California and the Southwestern and Western Mexican shorelines ... Stay away from the beaches and adhere to the warnings .. Stay out of the waterways until further notice ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the Eastern areas of the Nation will expect to become COOLER than normal the next couple of days as the high builds in the wake of the strong cold frontal boundary progressing on through ... Surface low associated with the front is over Northeast/New England and will bring scattered to widespread rain for the majority of the Northeast through the remainder of the Holiday Weeekend ... The trailing edge will become stationary over Northern FL and bring showers and storms to the SOutheast region and Central/Southern FL ... Upper level pattern across the Central states will split in the flow, primary low pressure will slip to the Plains before lifting into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley ... Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of this strong cold front from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains for Monday ... This will spawn off a few severe storms across Southern Michigan into Northern Indiana and Western OH for a SLIGHT RISK for Labor Day ... Have a great Sunday, REMEMBER, to please REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
We do have a little bit of severe weather to be concerned about as the Remnant of HARVEY is finally getting out of here ... ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS and POSSIBLY a BRIEF, WEAK SPIN-UP TORNADO OR TWO could accompany the thunderstorm activity in the forecast for the region of the Mid-Atlantic for today and tonight ... BE ON ALERT for this ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: The tropics are active in both oceans ... Going to continue to be this way for several days ahead in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins ... HURRICANE IRMA IRMA continues to fluctuate in strength, downgraded last evening to a CAT 2 hurricane, but the forecast is looking to strengthen back to a MAJOR CAT 3 and powerful as you can imagine ... IRMA is located about 1320 miles to the E of the Leeward Islands with max sustained winds of 110 mph with higher gusts and moving westward at 14 mph ... She is expected to go west-southwest in the next 48 hours ... Fluctuation in strength will continue in the next 48 hours, however, she is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through early next week as she hits the very edge of the Eastern Caribbean ... Hurricane forced winds extends outward up to 25 miles from the center of circulation, while Tropical Storm winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center of circulation ... INVEST SYSTEM NEAR CABO VERDE ISLANDS: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave ... Environmental Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development in the next 48 hours, and this system could become a TROPICAL DEPRESSION in the next few days as it moves westward at 10 - 15 mph through the Tropical Atlantic ... MEDIUM ODDS for FURTHER DEVELOPMENT .. 60% We are also keeping a very close eye on the SW Gulf of Mexico where a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms to the West of the Yucatan Peninsula could possibly begin to get a little more organized .. Just a keen place to watch closely ... PACIFIC BASIN: TROPICAL STORM LIDIA: LIDIA'S center of circulation is moving through the Northern Baja California Sur at this time ... TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for the WEST COAST of the BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA from PUERTO SAN ADRESITO to SAN JOSE DO LAS PALOMAS ... EAST COAST of the BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA from LORETO to ISLA SAN LUIS ... MAINLAND MEXICO from GUAYMAS to PUERTO LIBERTAD ... LIDIA is located about 70 miles to the ESE of Punta Eugenia, Mexico or 105 miles W of Santa Rosalia, Mexico ... Max sustained winds of 45 mph with higher gusts ... LIDIA moving NW and will continue this motion through Sunday before turning west-northwest Sunday Night ... THe center of LIDIA will move near or along the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula through tonight and then gradually head out to the Pacific on Sunday ... Additional weakening is expected in the next 48 hours as Lidia interacts with the mountainous terrain of the Baja Peninsula expected to become a REMNANT LOW by Saturday Night Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center of circulation ... Rainfall forecast for the region is about 4-8" with isolated up to 12" possible all over the region with 3 - 6" expected in the Mexican states ... Tropical Storm Winds will be in the region of the watches and warnings as we speak through Friday Night and could reach hurricane conditions in the WATCH area by tonight. One last thing to mention will be SWELLS generated by LIDIA will cause Life threatening rip currents and heavy surf for the Baja Peninsula of Southern California and the Southwestern and Western Mexican shorelines ... Stay away from the beaches and adhere to the warnings .. Stay out of the waterways until further notice ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather Post Tropical Cyclone HARVEY is finally going off to la la land with the weakening state as it lifts into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes into Eastern Canada for the weekend .. Still dealing with showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold frontal boundary that will approach the region on Sunday into Monday ... Cooler temperatures will prevail ahead for the week ahead after a gradual warm-up ... Otherwise, we are still remaining very warm and dry in the West with some high elevated concerns for Wildfire due to the drought conditions, be sure to check your local restrictions in your region before proceeding to burn any waste and so forth ... Have a Great Saturday! Remember to always please REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, David L Saurer SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK: Severe storms are capable of ISOLATED TORNADOES for today's forecast from remnant low of formerly HARVEY with DAMAGING WINDS across the Carolinas and the Southern Appalachians ... Some of these tornadoes could become long tracking, long living, potentially strong, and will be rain wrapped when they formed ... It is advised that you have a source to get your weather alerts and to listen closely to updated forecast throughout the day on this potentially threatening weather ... A few isolated strong to severe storms in the Northern Plains with a strong cold front sagging southward from Central Canada is capable of producing some strong wind gusts of 40 - 60 mph in the strongest cells, so keep that in mind as well ... ENHANCED RISK is in place for portions of the Carolinas. SLIGHT RISK is in places across the Southeastern states and across the Southern Appalachians ... MARGINAL RISK is in place for portions of the Southeastern states and Southern Appalachians ... Eastern North Dakota into Northwestern Minnesota .. TROPICAL OUTLOOK: The tropics are active in both oceans ... Going to continue to be this way for several days ahead in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins ... HURRICANE IRMA She is expected to remain a powerful hurricane for days .. Forecast models are still VERY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN with forecast trajectory path on whether or not will pose a threat to the US MAINLAND being that the storm is still 10 days out from any threat ... STAY TUNED! IRMA is 1580 miles to the E of the Leeward Islands with max sustained winds of 110 mph with higher gusts ... She continues to move west-northwest and will continue this way with a possible turn ot the west expected tonight and then over the weekend will turn to the west-southwest ... Fluctations in strength is also expected in the next few days, but remaining, once again, a powerful hurricane ... Hurricane forced winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center of circulation, while tropical storm forced winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center ... This storm will be closely monitored throughout the Holiday Weekend and will keep you posted on the latest developments .... We are keeping a close eye on a new tropical wave that begun to merge off the West Coast of Africa and it is producing a disorganized area of cloudiness and rain showers with possible embedded thunderstorms .. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for develop, this system could become a TROPICAL DEPRESSION over the weekend while moving to the west at 15 mph ... MEDIUM ODDS of FURTHER DEVELOPMENT at 50% We are also keeping a very close eye on the SW Gulf of Mexico where a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms to the West of the Yucatan Peninsula could possibly begin to get a little more organized .. Just a keen place to watch closely ... PACIFIC BASIN: TROPICAL STORM LIDIA: LIDIA's center of circulation is over the Southern Baja California Sur as we speak and heavy rainfall is continuing to impact the Southern Baja California Sur into portions of the Mainland of Mexico ... Located 65 miles WNW of La Paz, Mexico or 70 miles E of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico with winds sustained at 60 mph with higher gusts ... TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for the BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA .. SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS to ISLA SAN LUIS .. MAINLAND MEXICO from ALTATA to PUERTO LIBERTAD LIDIA moving NW and will continue this motion with increasing forward speed for the next 48 hours as she continue to move along the West Coast of the Baja Californai SUr through Saturday and move over the Pacific Ocean on Saturday Night .. Additional weakening is expected in the next 48 hours as Lidia interacts with the mountainous terrain of the Baja Peninsula expected to become a REMNANT LOW by Saturday Night Tropical Storm Forced Winds extend outward up to 195 miles from the center of circulation ... Rainfall forecast for the region is about 6 - 12" with isolated up to 20" possible all over the region with 3 - 6" expected in the Mexican states ... Tropical Storm Winds will be in the region of the watches and warnings as we speak through Friday Night and could reach hurricane conditions in the WATCH area by tonight. One last thing to mention will be SWELLS generated by LIDIA will cause Life threatening rip currents and heavy surf for the Baja Peninsula of Southern California and the Southwestern and Western Mexican shorelines ... Stay away from the beaches and adhere to the warnings .. Stay out of the waterways until further notice ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the continuation of a HEAT WAVE over the Western areas of the Nation ... This is in response to a persistent, upper ridge in place which will weaken briefly before re-establishing its presence ... EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS and HEAT ADVISORIES encompassing the majority of California and the Desert Southwest where forecast highs are exceeding 100 degrees which is about 10 to 15 degrees above late August standards ... The Central Great Basin and Upper Intermountain West has RED FLAG WARNINGS for wildfire danger ... Be aware of this factor ... It is expected to be the opposite across the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region as a pristine Canadian air mass settles on Southward over the region .. The strongest cold frontal boundary of the season will results in widespread 60s across the region and even 50s!!! in New England for Friday and Saturday, taste of Fall for you folks ... Please have a wonderful Friday! Please, also remember, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer |