SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is a possibility for today's forecast for this afternoon and evening ... SLIGHT RISK has been issued for portions of Western Kansas to South Central Nebraska where STRONG GUSTY WINDS, DAMAGING HAIL, and a COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES are not out of the question in the strongest cells ... MARGINAL RISK been introduced for the SURROUNDING AREAS of the SLIGHT RISK and then expanding into portions of the Northern Texas Panhandle into portions of Northeastern Colorado and the Upper Mississippi Valley where STRONG GUSTY WINDS and LARGE HAIL plays a role in the strongest cells ... Please be sure to have multiple sources to receive updated forecast and your weather alerts ... BE ON ALERT! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: The tropics have finally quieted down considerably compared to the last couple of months of active tropical weather in the Atlantic .. There is one concerning manner that is bearing to watch, although, not as serious as once expected ... There are two areas of interests to watch closely in the Atlantic Basin .. Particularily, the tropical wave moving through between Cuba and Puerto Rico as a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure bringing a tremendous surge of tropical moisture into Puerto Rico where FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect ... Keeping a close eye on this ... Another area of interest is in Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula as this area is development interest among meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center .. This area has a 20% odd on development for further amplification into a tropical cyclone ... This is very disorganized, however, showers and thunderstorms are continuing development in this area of low pressure ... We will need to watch closely for the next few days ... TROPICAL PACIFIC: INVEST 90E FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: A small low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of southeastern Mexico is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development over the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Pasch NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the deep, upper level low pressure trough over the Western regions of the Nation continuing to influence the pattern with plenty of snow and heavy snowfall in the Intermountain West where a foot to two feet is a possibility across portions of Montana through this evening ... Strong winds are making things very difficult for travel as well ... This surface area of low pressure is strengthening as we speak ... This system is expected to lift northeastward into Southern Canada by the overnight ... Rain showers and storms associated with the cold frontal boundary is developing along and ahead, some strong to severe storms are possible as I highlighted in the Severe Weather Update above ... There is a SLIGHT OPPORTUNITY for flash flooding and excessive rainfall in the Central and Northern Plains, so be on alert and watch closely for this event ... Finally, the tropical moisture that has been an ongoing issue across the State of Florida into the Central Gulf Coast will continue to be a problem ... More showers and thunderstorms are development over the region through tomorrow morning's outlook ... The majority of the Eastern Seaboard remains dry through the mid week period before a reinforcing cold frontal boundary approaches to bring a break in the dryness with a few showers and thunderstorms ... In the wake of the front, much cooler temperatures as well ... In the meantime, the high pressure ridge will anchor itself and bring southerly flow for warm temperatures and Indian Summer Like Conditions through the period ... HAVE A GREAT MONDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer
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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Severe weather is a possibility for today's forecast for this afternoon and evening ... SLIGHT RISK has been issued for portions of the Central High Plains where the possiblity of several supercells containing some LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, and a FEW TORNADOES are possible across Nebraska ... MARGINAL RISK is introduced for the area SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and extending into Western Kansas and portions of the Dakotas where STRONG GUSTY WINDS, SMALL TO LARGE HAIL, and a BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO persist in the strongest cells there ... Be on alert and make sure to have multiple sources to receive the latest forecast and weather alerts as necessary ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: The tropics have finally quieted down considerably compared to the last couple of months of active tropical weather in the Atlantic .. There is one concerning manner that is bearing to watch, although, not as serious as once expected ... INVEST 99L This system is a trough of low pressure extending across the Eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico bearing a lot of heavy rainfall, flooding potential, and gusty winds across Northeastern and Central Florida into Southeastern Georgia for today's forecast ... However, development has been limited due to strong, upper level winds shearing off this system ... There is plenty of tropical transport of moisture allowing for a disruption of plans for today for many residences ... This system has a very low shot of future development, therefore, expected to remain a tropical wave of low pressure funneling by moisture transport from the Caribbean and Eastern Gulf of Mexico .. This system is heading Northeast out into the Open Atlantic ... So good news there for the future outlooks ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Other major headline topping our National Weather is the showers and storms hanging over Florida, as I covered above. We are seeing excessive rainfall and flooding potential continuing to become an issue for Northeastern Florida ... However there is a quasi-stationary frontal boundary in the region with this upper-level energy, so therefore, expect this to continue to become an issue ... Temperatures are on the cool side along the Eastern Seaboard and portions of the East with highs in the 70s across the Mid-Atlantic, while the Northeast experiencing 50s and 60s for the highs ... Overnight lows in the 30s and 40s with some FROST ADVISORY in effect as well ... High pressure will remain anchored in place over the East through the mid-week period keeping the dry conditions in the forecast .... We are watching a low pressure storm system slowly progressing through the Central and Northern High Plains for the next few days ... This is a trigger for some severe weather opportunities ... The higher elevations of the Central and Northern Rockies will see heavy snowfall in the forecast as the temperatures fall and the snow levels are lowering as well ... Portions of Montana is in the forecast for heavy early seasonal snowfall up to about a foot or more with WINTER STORM WATCHES in place ... Strong winds are in the forecast as well near the center of circulation ... This will lead to Blowing and Drifting Snow ... In the warmer sector of this system, we are seeing heavy rainfall with embedded convection expected in the Central and Northern Plains extending into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley for your Monday's forecast ... Be on the alert and watch the forecast updates on this situation unfolding ... Have a great SUNDAY, REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer |