SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY, MARCH 18TH: The potent shortwave disturbance and trough will begin to proceed across the Southern Rockies during the day, and a very powerful mid level jet overspreading the central and southern High Plains in the evening hours with some rapidly cooling aloft over the region ... Low pressure is expected to deepen over eastern Colorado and western Kansas with an associated cold frontal boundary that will support strong lift with the interaction of marginal instability supporting rapidly developing thunderstorms ... In the south, wave is proceeding across northeastern Texas with shortwave ridging over the lower Mississippi Valley ... There will be a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending across the mid-South into Mississippi and Alabama with some decent values in the dew points supporting scattered thunderstorm development beneath a strong flow aloft supporting a few strong to severe storms ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms from Northern Texas through the Red River Valley through the Central Gulf Coastal States to Southern Georgia and Far Northern Florida ... THREATS INCLUDES LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS, and a COUPLE TORNADOES .. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, and POORLY DRAINED FLASH FLOODING is expected ... MARGINAL RISK surrounds the SLIGHT RISK into Oklahoma and Texas for mainly LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO RAPID POORLY DRAINED REGIONS OF FLASH FLOODING ... MONDAY, MARCH 19TH: The Birmingham AL National Weather Service Office has highlighted LOCALLY ENHANCED RISK for severe storms ... However, given the notion of the timing of the shortwave trough will be the key critical role on how the event underfolds for your Monday ... Models are still spread out on this feature along with the potential for severe weather ... The most probable solution accordingly to the NAM, GFS, and EUROPEAN MODELS seems to say some isolated, potentially significant severe storms could become a real issue from Middle Tennessee into Northern Alabama and Georgia, depending upon how much destabilization could occur especially in Tennessee .. The forecast models has shown substantial storm coverage over the majority of Southern Georgia into northern Florida, possibly an Mesoscale Complex System, with mainly wind damage with the potential given with undirectional flow ... This is one to watch closely, and there is a potential for an upgrade to ENHANCED RISK to go along with the NWS BIRMINGHAM AL call ... For right now, The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms persisting for Middle Tennessee, Northern Alabama, and Far Northeastern Georgia where VERY LARGE TO SEVERE SIZE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS exceeding 70 MPH, and a FEW TORNADOES, and perhaps could see a couple STRONG TORNADOES as well .. This region needs to be on heightened alert and practice SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS by having multiple sources for receiving your statements and alert .. This has a potential to be a dangerous day of severe weather in this region ... STAY ON ALERT AT ALL TIMES! SLIGHT RISK for severe storms from Tennessee southeastward into Georgia and Northern Florida persist for LARGE to VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS exceeding 60 MPH or greater, and a couple TORNADOES. MARGINAL RISK is persisting for the majority of the Southeast for storms containing LARGE HAIL and LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ALL THESE STORMS will have the possibility of DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, and POSSIBLY LIKELY FLASH FLOODING. BE ON ALERT! TUESDAY, MARCH 20TH: With the upper level low deepening over the Southeast, the upper-level jet develops rapidly over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and this will cause the trough to proceed rapidly with a rapid cooling aloft overspreading the majority of Southern Georgia and Northern Florida ... A cold frontal boundary is progressing across the region during the course of Tuesday .. Plenty of instability will be in the atmosphere over this region ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following threats: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms persisting for Northern Florida where the threats of DAMAGING WINDS exceeding 70 MPH and a couple TORNADOES likely for this region ... SLIGHT RISK for severe storms persisting across the majority of CENTRAL and NORTHERN FLORIDA for DAMAGING WINDS exceeding 60 MPH or greater and a TORNADO or TWO ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms persisting for Far Southern Georgia into the majority of Central Florida for DAMAGING WINDS and HAIL, a possible TORNADO could occur. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has some rough weather to be concerned about with showers and storms expected as I mentioned above over the Southern Plains and Gulf Coastal States with the transport of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico over the stalled stationary frontal boundary in place ... Some of these storms, once again, will become strong or severe ... This same system will be spreading snowfall and mix precipitation across portions of the Ohio Valley, northern Mid-Atlantic and southern portions of the Northeast for late on Monday into Tuesday. We are also watching closely an upper-level energy wave proceeding around a deepening upper-level trough building across central California that is expected to proceed for the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains by Monday ... The forecast is calling for rainfall and higher elevation snowfall for portions of the Pacific Northwest Coastal Regions through Monday AM, as well as, portions of the Northern Rockies .. Snowfall will begin expanding the axis eastward out of the Southwest and Central/Southern Rockies into the Central/Northern High Plains by this evening ... Snowfall is forecast to become heavy at times for portions of the Central and Northern Rockies over the next couple of days ... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for portions of the Intermountain West and the Southern Rockies ... Finally, the West Coast will begin the transition phase to a prolonged wet pattern by mid week .. Portions of California will likely see a much needed duration of rainfall that could lead to significant impacts, including debris flows, mudslides, and flooding. HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer
0 Comments
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY, ST PATRICKS DAY: We have a three-day potential severe weather event underway beginning today through Monday evening ... A progessive shortwave through is proceeding across the Ohio Valley to the coastal regions of the Carolinas and Southeast Virginia for today ... An area of low pressure and an associated cold frontal boundary with a progressing mid-level trough will be the agenda for today's outlook with a warm frontal boundary shifting a bit northward through Kentucky and Southern West Virginia .. The western extend of the cold frontal boundary is expected to advance more slowly than previous models southward across the Mid-South into Northern Texas becoming parallel to the westerly flow ... A dryline will begin to extend southward from the surface low with surface heating allowing for a good lift for thunderstorm development for today ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms over the Dallas - Fort Worth metroplex and Central and Northern Texas where LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, and a COUPLE TORNADOES could become a heightened issue ... MARGINAL RISK is issued SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK into the ARKLATEX region .. Also, Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee into portions of Southern Virginia and Northern/Western North Carolina where HAIL and LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS are expected ... SUNDAY, MARCH 18TH: The potent shortwave disturbance and trough will begin to proceed across the Southern Rockies during the day, and a very powerful mid level jet overspreading the central and southern High Plains in the evening hours with some rapidly cooling aloft over the region ... Low pressure is expected to deepen over eastern Colorado and western Kansas with an associated cold frontal boundary that will support strong lift with the interaction of marginal instability supporting rapidly developing thunderstorms ... In the south, wave is proceeding across northeastern Texas with shortwave ridging over the lower Mississippi Valley ... There will be a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending across the mid-South into Mississippi and Alabama with some decent values in the dew points supporting scattered thunderstorm development beneath a strong flow aloft supporting a few strong to severe storms ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK across portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and the ARKLATEX region where a few storms could contain LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, and a COUPLE TORNADOES ... A SLIGHT RISK is also in places across Southwestern Kansas and Northwestern Oklahoma ... MARGINAL RISK is in place for portions of the Central Plains into the Central Gulf Coast where HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS with a possible TORNADO could persist. MONDAY, MARCH 19TH: The Birmingham AL National Weather Service Office has highlighted LOCALLY ENHANCED RISK for severe storms ... However, given the notion of the timing of the shortwave trough will be the key critical role on how the event underfolds for your Monday ... Models are still spread out on this feature along with the potential for severe weather ... The most probable solution accordingly to the NAM, GFS, and EUROPEAN MODELS seems to say some isolated, potentially significant severe storms could become a real issue from Middle Tennessee into Northern Alabama and Georgia, depending upon how much destabilization could occur especially in Tennessee .. The forecast models has shown substantial storm coverage over the majority of Southern Georgia into northern Florida, possibly an Mesoscale Complex System, with mainly wind damage with the potential given with undirectional flow ... This is one to watch closely, and there is a potential for an upgrade to ENHANCED RISK to go along with the NWS BIRMINGHAM AL call ... For right now, The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following: SLIGHT RISK for severe storms across the majority of Alabama, Georgia, Southern Tennessee, as well as Northern Florida and Northeastern Mississippi for possible LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DESTRUCTIVE and DAMAGING WINDS, and SEVERAL TORNADOES (in question right now) ... MARGINAL RISK is in place for the majority of the Southeast for DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ... Once again, this forecast could upgrade in the later outlooks, so stay tuned for the latest forecast. More details to come .... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has scattered to widespread snowfall expected across the Western areas of the Nation that is beginning to taper this weekend with the mentioned upper-level trough and surface cold frontal boundary proceeding east from the Intermountain West into the Plains .. As this upper-level system proceeds eastward, disturbances will remain in place over the Pacific Northwest Coastal Regions and into Montana keeping the weather cold, cloudy, and unsettled .. Another potent Pacific storm system is approaching the West Coast and shaping the weather pattern to bring widespread rainfall to California into early next week. The combination of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow is spreading across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and northern Mid-Atlantic regions as a winter storm system travels to the Eastern Seaboard .. Snowfall amounts are expected to be on the light side; however, ice accumulations up to, or exceeding a tenth of an inch will become a possibility .. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect from central Iowa to northern Virginia .. Snowfall is forecast to continue for portions of the Northeast as a reinforcing shot of cold, Canadian air approaches. Finally, moderate to locally heavy rainfall is dwindling down as a cold frontal boundary proceeds south into the Gulf Coastal Region before stalling on Sunday in advance of the next storm system to eject out of the Southern Plains .. Read above for details .. ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS will continue to persist across the Southern Plains for the weekend with the gusty winds and low relative humidity in place. HAVE A GREAT ST PATRICKS DAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has a negative tilted shortwave proceeding through the Central Plains at this time and expected to weaken and it proceeds for the lower and middle Missouri Valley for this afternoon and evening .. It is forecast to become an open wave across the middle Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley for overnight into Saturday .. With the subtle ridging taking place as the wave moves through the southern extent of the MARGINAL RISK that is issued by The Storm Prediction Center .. A dry line is expected to form extending from the Kansas low pressure center southward across the southern Plains .. The western extent of the moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico will spawn off thunderstorm development in the MARGINAL RISK area with includes the lower Missouri Valley into Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys ... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into the evening hours with VERY HEAVY RAINFALL with FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL HIGH ON THE END, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS, and a POSSIBLE TORNADO is on the agenda ... Be on Alert and have multiple sources to receive your weather statements and alerts. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has scattered to widespread snowfall expected in the forecast for the Western regions of the Nation as an upper-level low proceeds slowly south and east over the area ... The favored higher terrain regions will have a long duration event of heavy snowfall especially in the Sierras where forecast accumulating snowfall amounts of two to as much as four feet is expected ... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES and WINTER STORM WARNINGS are in effect for portions of California, Oregon, Nevada, and portions of Nebraska. Majority of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains will also have snowfall as well with a frontal boundary and developing low pressure along the front range combined with the approaching cold frontal boundary over the Great Basin/Intermountain West .. The heaviest snowfall, 6 - 12 inches, is expected across the western South Dakota/Nebraska border with WINTER STORM WARNINGS and WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT .. Freezing rain is also expected to be very major concern with this storm system, with a threat extending from the mid-Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. Farther South, fire weather dangers will be ELEVATED due to gusty winds and low relative humidity behind a developing dryline as I mentioned above east of the Southern and Central Rockies ... Please practice FIRE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS and read up on the latest forecast and restrictions in your region. Finally, a cold frontal boundary will proceed south from Canada this weekend bringing another shot of cold air to the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic .. Several locations will have temperatures 10 to as much as 25 degrees below mid-March standards .. Any additional snowfall accumulations will be light ... Winds will also remain gusty which will continue to keep wind chills a factor, especially across northern New England through the weekend. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has NO SEVERE WEATHER expected, however, some general storms are a potential from western Oregon, northern California, across the Southern Rockies, and the Texas South Plains during the afternoon and early evening ... Then, thunderstorms will develop tonight across the Central Plains to the lower Missouri Valley, and across southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi valley. FRIDAY, MARCH 16th: We do have a severe weather event to be noted for Friday afternoon and evening with a surface low and associated cold front swinging through the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Gulf Coast ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the following areas: SLIGHT RISK is in effect for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley where some strong to severe storms are capable of producing LARGE TO SEVERE SIZED HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, and POSSIBLE A FEW TORNADOES ... MARGINAL RISK is in effect from Louisiana Coastal Region to Eastern Kanasas for primarily HAIL and WIND ... Be on alert! More details to come in the later updates ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the inital setup across the Nation featuring an "OMEGA BLOCK" with a ridge over the center of the Nation while closed low pressure are centered over the Eastern and Western portions of the Nation ... Ultimately, this particular regime will maintain colder than average readings over the eastern half of the Nation .. In particular, expect temperatures up to 20 degrees below mid March standards across the Western states as well as over the northern-central to northeastern portions of the Nation .. A well defined west-east oriented stationary frontal boundary will be the seperation of 70s and 80s over the Southern Plains, while 30s and 40s prevail to the north .. Generally speaking, temperatures will be up to 25 degrees above mid March standards in places like Oklahoma and Kansas. With the deep upper-level trough in place across the West Coast, multiple embedded impulses will be the focus for persistent, organized precipitation .. While wet weather is anticipated over a vast majority of the western states, the best region for rainfall will be across the higher terrain of northern California and western Oregon .. This is where some of the orographic lift with the upper-level trough ... Expecting several inches of precipitation over the Sierra Nevada ranges, primarily snowfall given the cold air aloft .. At this point, 2 to 3 feet of snowfall is appearing likely in isolated locations approaching 4 feet ... While other ranges surrounding the Sierra Nevada will see around 12 to 18 inches. As the upper-level trough across the western states proceeds inland, one disturbance is forecast to intensify over the central high Plains for this evening ... Strong lift underneath the system will combined with the favorably easterly upslope flow to produce heavy snowfall anywhere from southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming into sections of western South Dakota and northwestern Nebraska .. Amounts over a foot are likely across the Black Hills ... An additional threat of ice as mild air emanating from the Gulf of Mexico interacts with a sub-freezing surface layer .. This will be confined to locations north of the stalled frontal boundary stretching from the central Plains into the Tennessee Valley .. This places significant icing potential anywhere along and north of Interstate 70 across Nebraska and South Dakota into a large chunk of the middle Mississippi Valley. Finally, given the intensification forecast over the central Plains late tonight, a strengthening pressure gradient will unfold at the surface .. Dry, gusty winds are likely across the southern Rockies eastward into the central/southern Plains which will enhance the risk for wildfires .. RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect. HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has some possible scattered thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening across mainly Utah and eastern Nevada and portions of western Wyoming and Colorado ... The Storm Prediction Center has a MARGINAL RISK for some severe storms capable of producing LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAIL over this region .. Be on alert! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the cold weather and snow showers persisting across the Northeast through Thursday in the wake of the big nor'easter that dump a foot or more of snowfall ... Accumulating snowfall is likely from the central Appalachians to Maine, and some lake enhanced snowfall is also possible around the Great Lakes ... Afternoon high temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s for the majority of the Eastern portions of the Nation which is quite below normal for mid March standards ... A developing storm system is proceeding across the Rockies for today and is expected to emerge over the Plains by the end of the week .. Widespread rainfall and higher elevation snowfall is likely for the majority of the Western portions of the Nation in association with this frontal boundary and the accompanying upper-level trough ... Heavy snowfall is expected for the Sierra Nevada range, with amounts in excess of two feet possible for some of the higher ridges .. California will also be receiving some beneficial and much needed rainfall after a very dry February ... Finally, once this storm system reaches the Plains by Thursday PM, a swath of moderate to heavy snowfall is a possibility north of the surface low from eastern Wyoming to South Dakota and Nebraska .. Some mixed precipitation is also a possibility in portions of Nebraska and Iowa ... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage by Friday AM from central Gulf Coastal region to Missouri as Gulf of Mexico moisture surges northward ahead of the cold frontal boundary ... HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has NO SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED anywhere across the Lower 48 .. Some isolated weak thunderstorms are a possibility for today from Central to Northern California into the Great Basin ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the powerful nor'easter expecting to hammer New England with heavy snowfall and blizzard-like conditions near the coastal areas ... As the storm center proceeds to the Southeast of New England, the potential exists for mesoscale heavy snow bands to form near the coastal regions, leading to bursts of heavy snow (2 - 3" an hour rates) and very gusty winds ... Coastal flooding is also likely around high tide .. A renewed surge of Canadian, cold air will then become entrenched over the Eastern half of the Nation in the wake of the storm, leading to unseasonably cold temperatures for March to continue through the middle of the week ahead, with Florida also feeling the effects of the colder temperatures ... With a blocking pattern remaining in place across the higher latitudes, the nor'easter is expected to directly affect Nova Scotia for Wednesday and then weaken ... This will keep the snowfall in place over the majority of New England on Wednesday near a trough of low pressure. The Central portions of the Nation will be relatively mild and mostly sunny through the middle of the week thanks to a large surface high pressure ridge building .. The Western portions of the Nation will remain increasingly wet/snowy with unsettled pattern with a frontal system approaching and proceeding inland ... The greatest concentration of rainfall will be focused on the favored terrain of Central and Northern California, with some locations forecast to receive 2 to as much as 4" of rainfall through Wednesday AM ... Heavy snowfall is expected across the higher mountainous terrain, with the greatest amounts likely in the Sierra Nevada mountains. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has some severe weather across portions of Southern Florida with the persisting shortwave trough quickly proceeding southeastward with the cold frontal boundary across Flroida .. Moist and sufficiently unstable air is ahead of the front to support thunderstorms ... A few storms are possible for late this morning through the afternoon with local threat of MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAIL primarily there ... The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL RISK for SOUTHERN FLORIDA FOR TODAY ... Be on alert! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the rapidly developing nor'easter as the main weather headline for the early part of the new week over the Western Atlantic ... This is in response to a strong, upper-level disturbance crossing the Southeastern states for today, and widespread rain showers is expected from Florida to central Virginia .. Moderate to heavy snowfall expected for West Virginia and the mountains of Virginia where WINTER STORM WARNINGS are in effect .. After the precipitation ends in the Mid-Atlantic for tonight, attention turns to New England as the third nor'easter in two weeks is expected to bring another round of significant snows from Connecticut to Maine, with some locations getting in excess of a foot or more .. Portions of Upstate New York are also likely to receive heavy snowfall through the mid week .. With the forecast trajectory of the system expected to be further southeast than the last two events, the highest winds and waves will remain relatively over the open offshore waters of the Atlantic, good news there ... The Central portions of the Nation should be relatively mild and mostly sunny over the next few days as a high pressure ridge builds .. The Western portions of the Nation will be increasingly wet/snowy and unsettled as a frontal system approaches and proceeds inland ... The greatest rainfall should be focused on the favored terrain of Central and Northern California, with some locations forecast to receive two to as much as four inches locally through Wednesday AM ... Heavy snowfall is expected across the highest mountain terrains, with the greatest amounts likely for the Sierra Nevada mountains ... HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's outlook has some severe weather to be concerned about as a progressive shortwave trough continues to move southeastward from the Central Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley by this evening, merging with a broader, southern stream jet over the Gulf of Mexico .. This will maintain a strong southwesterly flow with cooler temperatures aloft, that will set the stage for convective development along a cold frontal boundary extending from a weak low in Central Mississippi southwestward to Central Texas then proceeding eastward to Central Alabama and Southeastern Louisiana by tonight on the forecast models ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms across the majority of Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, and Southwestern Alabama for mainly MARGINAL HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS are the main threat .. Very heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning will be a common threat from these storms ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms persist for the majority of the Central Gulf Coastal States .. Be on the alert! Have multiple sources to receive your latest statements, forecasts, and alerts ... Follow the National Weather Service for all the details. NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has an evolving storm system over the South-Central portions of the Nation that will become the main feature of today's outlook ... A surface low over the Deep South is forecast to become better organized as a shortwave disturbance approaches from the Western High Plains .. Showers and thunderstorms will be expected widespread across the majority of the Southeastern states as deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico surges northward and expected to interact with a warm frontal boundary. Some locations from Mississippi to Southern Georgia could get an inch or more of rainfall through Monday. By Monday AM, a new surface low is forecast to develop near the Southeast coastal regions and become a nor'easter as it intensifies and proceeds towards the northeast ... There is some uncertainities on the future track of this nor'easter and thus the direct impacts it will have from the Mid-Atlantic to New England ... The best bet for accumulating snowfall will be for the Central and Southern Appalachians and interior portions of New England .. If this nor'easter tracks closer to the coastal regions, then high winds and coastal flooding will become a real issue. Stay Tuned! HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
The Storm Prediction Center has placed a SLIGHT and MARGINAL RISK in place ... The shortwave trough is digging southeastward from the Northern Rockies to the eastern Oklahoma ... We have a strong mid level northwesterly flow from the Gulf of Mexico that will fuel up some convective activity with a weak surface low proceeding across northwestern Texas to southern Louisiana to southwestern Georgia as well ... The strong low-level warm air advection ahead of the frontal boundary will support for robust thunderstorms and a few isolated surface-based supercells capable of rotation for a few tornadoes ... ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS and SOME HAIL is possible .. SLIGHT RISK is in place for severe storms across portions of Eastern Oklahoma to portions of Central/Western Mississippi ... MARGINAL RISK is in place for severe storms across the areas SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and extending to Southern Louisiana and portions of Western Alabama ... Be sure to remain on alert and have multiple sources to receive your latest forecast, statements, and alerts .. A NOAA WEATHER RADIO is your best bet for protection .. Exercise SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS when WATCHES are issued ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has an evolving storm system over the South Central poritons of the Nation for the weekend that will become the main weather feature for the next few days ... A surface low forming over Texas is forecast to become a better-organized system as a shortwave disturbance approaches from the Western High Plains ... Showers and thunderstorms expected to become widespread ahead of the low as deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico surges on northward and interacts with the warm frontal boundary .. Some locations near Interstate 20 will see up to three inches of rainfall by the end of the weekend, and localized FLASH FLOODING is a possibility where thunderstorm activity become training and persistent ... This low pressure system is expected to reach the Southeast Coastal Regions by Monday AM and resulting in widespread rain showers from Northern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Regions, and snowfall farther inland near the Appalachians ... A weakening storm system approaching California for today is expected to bring widespread rain showers and mountain snowfall to the state through tomorrow morning ,with the greatest concentration of the rainfall between San Diego and San Francisco .. Snow showers are expected from the northern Plains to the Midwest through tonight in association with the upper-level shortwave proceeding through ... HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED; however, we do have an opportunity for a few garden variety thunderstorms in the forecast across Texas Gulf Coastal Region to the middle Mississippi Valley .. While a strong storm or two is possible, no organized severe weather expected ... SATURDAY'S FORECAST: The Storm Prediction Center has placed a SLIGHT and MARGINAL RISK in place ... The shortwave trough is digging southeastward from the Northern Rockies to the eastern Oklahoma ... We have a strong mid level northwesterly flow from the Gulf of Mexico that will fuel up some convective activity with a weak surface low proceeding across northwestern Texas to southern Louisiana to southwestern Georgia as well ... The strong low-level warm air advection ahead of the frontal boundary will support for robust thunderstorms and a few isolated surface-based supercells capable of rotation for a few tornadoes ... ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS and SOME HAIL is possible .. SLIGHT RISK for storms for Saturday is expected from the ARKLATEX to the Florida Panhandle MARGINAL RISK for storms for Saturday is expected from Southeastern Oklahoma to the central Gulf Coastal Region ... Be sure to remain on alert and have multiple sources to receive your latest forecast, statements, and alerts .. A NOAA WEATHER RADIO is your best bet for protection .. Exercise SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS when WATCHES are issued ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has colder than normal temperatures in the forecast to continue going into the upcoming weekend across the majority of the Eastern portions of the Nation in the wake of the strong nor'easter that recently hammered the majority of the Northeast .. A cold upper-level low over the Northeast will provide for scattered to numerous snow showers from the Great Lakes to Main for today along with breezy conditions, making it feel more like January ... Less in the way of snow is expected by Saturday as this upper-level low proceed offshore and moisture decreases ... A weakening storm system approaching California on Saturday is expected to bring some widespread rainfall and mountain snowfall to the state through Sunday morning, with the greatest concentration of rainfall totals expected between Los Angeles and San Francisco .. Rainfall and higher elevation snowfall is likely from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies with the passage of the cold frontal boundary for today ... Finally, by Saturday AM, a new surface low pressure is forecast to develop over the Southern Plains and become better organized as it proceeds across the Deep South for tomorrow night .. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be widespread ahead of the low as deep moisture returns from the Gulf of Mexico and surges northward and interacts with a warm frontal boundary .. Some areas near Interstate 20 could see 1 to as much as 3 inches of rainfall by the end of the weekend and localized flooding is possible where thunderstorms activity becomes persistent ... HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ... NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE LOWER 48 ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a strong nor'easter impacting New England and will begin to lift across the Gulf of Maine for today and then gradually weaken tonight and Friday as the center of low pressure then proceeds insland across interior sections of Maine .. Additional heavy snowfall accumulations are expected across interior portions of the Northeast, and especially northern New England with accumulations of 12 - 18 inches expected ... Some accumulating snowfall will be expected as well around the Lower Great Lakes region and central Appalachians as additional energy aloft drops down to the southeast across the region .. Meanwhile, the remainder of the Eastern portions of the Nation will be generally cold through the remainder of the week as a well-defined upper-level trough settles on southeastward allowing for high temperatures to be as much as 20 degrees BELOW early March standards ... Over the Western portions of the Nation, multiple surface waves of low pressure and supporting energy aloft will allow for a broad area of precipitation over the next couple of days in the forecasat .. Rainfall will continue to spread across the Pacific Northwest and northern California for today's outlook as a cold frontal boundary proceeds inland ... This will allow for the Great Basin to see unsettled weather arriving with a combination of rainfall and snowfall by tonight and continuing into Friday ... Heavy snowfall will occur over the higher elevations, including the Cascades and the northern Rockies .. Snowfall accumulations as much as 1 to 2 feet can be expected through Friday .. Rainfall totals in the lower elevations of the interior will be generally on the light side, but the coastal ranges of Washington, Oregon, and far northern California are looking at up to 2 inches of rainfall ... Temperatures across the West will be generally ABOVE NORMAL for early March standards given the influx of Pacific air across the region ... Finally, the remainder of the Nation is expected to remain dry and relatively mild for early March standards with temperatures generally above normal .. This will especially be the case across the central and southern High Plains where temperatures will be as much as 25 degrees above early March standards .. The dry conditions across this region and warm temperatures will combine with low relative humidities to also support some concerning matters with wildfire activity ... HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED, however, isolated thunderstorms of the garden variety is expected across the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, while lightning strikes cannot be ruled out across portions of the Northeast due to the Nor'easter ... Be on Alert! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a surface low pressure and associated frontal boundary system is quickly transitioning into a nor'easter and will spread snowfall to the majority of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for today through the remainder of the week ahead ... Numerous WINTER STORM WARNINGS and WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast ... The storm is expected to proceed offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula northward while paralleling the Northeast Coastal Regions .. By Thursday PM, snowfall accumulations could easily surpass 1 foot for areas W of the I-95 corridor .. The major metro areas will be on the gradient in between substantial snowfall totals and light snowfall totals, so there is some uncertainties in how much snowfall will be in the areas like New York City, Philadelphia, Boston, and Baltimore-Washington ... Snowfall will presist over the Great Lakes Region over the next couple of days as low pressure hangs around -- with an additional snowfall accumulations in the range of 6 - 8" possible ... For the Southeast, showers and thunderstorms are expected for portions of central and southern Florida today as the cold frontal boundary proceeds southward. Across the Western areas of the Nation, conditions will generally be dry through this afternoon before low pressure approaches the coastal regions ... Rainfall and mountain snowfall will spread into northern California and the Pacific Northwest this evening and into the Northern Rockies on Thursday ... Rain and snowfall totals will be fairly light for this system through Thursday ... HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook showing some thunderstorms forming along and ahead of a cold frontal boundary that will pose a MARGINAL RISK over sections of Coastal Florida Panhandle for today and west-central Florida for tonight .. Damaging Winds and a weak, brief spin-up tornado or two could become a possibility .. Be sure to remain on alert for the threats ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a widespread heavy snow event in the forecast from the Northern High Plains, the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region and the Northeast as an occluded surface frontal boundary proceeds eastward .. Along and ahead of the trailing cold frontal boundary, showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Western Gulf states northward to the southern Ohio Valley and eastward into the Carolinas and Southeast .. A wave along this frontal boundary will quickly transition this system into a nor'easter, which will bring additionally six to as much as ten inches of snowfall west of the major metro regions, with higher amounts locally possible, to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast for Wednesday and Thursday .. Lighter snowfall is forecast for the Central Appalachians and back into the Northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region ... The heavy snowfall and strong winds have created blizzard conditions yesterday across portions of the Northern Plains that have persist through the overnight hours .. Conditions will begin to improve this morning/afternoon from west to east as the frontal boundary proceeds eastward ... BLIZZARD WARNINGS, WINTER STORM WARNINGS and WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect from the Northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley ... Finally, behind the cold frontal boundary, strong winds and drier air will filter into the Central portions of the Nation .. This will lead to critical fire danger for eastern Colorado through the majority of Kansas and Oklahoma as well as the Texas Panhandle through tonight, and an ELEVATED to CRITICAL risk will remain through Wednesday ... RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect and HIGH WIND WARNINGS are in effect further north across western South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas, as well as eastern Wyoming and Colorado ... Southwestern California is also forecast to expect ELEVATED fire conditions for today, as the Western areas of the Nation is generally expected to remain dry over the next couple of days before low pressure approaches Wednesday PM ... Rainfall will be possible from central California coastal region northward to the Pacific Northwest ... HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF and TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has a shot of a few severe thunderstorms over a portion of Southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley with an upper-level trough cross over the Central Plains with a surface low up in the Dakotas ... These storms for this afternoon and evening hours will be accompanied by LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS and possible ISOLATED LARGE HAIL .. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL RISK for this highlighted region, please stay on alert and listen closely to updates on this forecast ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a storm system with low pressure across the Northern Plains and Upper Midest bringing some widespread snow and strong winds as this upper-level trough and surface cold frontal boundary proceeds eastward through the Central portions of the Nation ... BLIZZARD CONDITIONS are expected from Southwestern North Dakota down across the majority of Central South Dakota and far Northern Nebraska gibven the expected high winds ... 1'+ is expected in the forecast, locally with this winter storm going through Tuesday before the system then begins to proceed towards the Eastern portions of the Nation ... Numerous BLIZZARD WARNINGS and WINTER STORM WARNING, along with WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES and HIGH WIND WARNINGS are in effect from eastern Montana southward to Kansas and east to Wisconsin and northern Illinois .. The snowfall will spread to the Great Lakes, northern Ohio Valley and Northeast by midweek as the frontal boundary proceeds towards the Eastern Seaboard ... Along the trailing cold frontal boundary, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop in the warm sector over the Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest as southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico transports moisture on northward .. The swath of precipitation will spread on eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and including the Gulf Coast and into portions of the Mid-Atlantic region .. Some locally heavy rainfall will occur, but right now the amounts DO NOT appear to be heavy enough to support much in the way of a flooding threat .. We will keep you posted! Gusty winds ahead of a cold frontal boundary and also behind it coupled with low relative humidities will maintain the threat for DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER conditions .. The fire weather threat should tend to subside by Tuesday through as the winds begins to diminish .. Across the Western areas of the Nation, temperatures will start off cool, but with high pressure building in across the Intermountain West, some gradual moderation can be expected ... HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF/TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has severe storms lining line across central and north-central Texas to portions of the Mid-South for today into the evening hours ... Upper level air pattern is intensfying along with a cyclone digging southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest .. Strong shortwave trough is across the Southern Rockies and this will be ejecting east-northeast as a postive tilted system ... The latter trough will then eject into the Central High Plains into Northern Mexico and this will deamplify across the Ozarks and setting the stages for the severe weather ... A cold frontal boundary will slightly progrees eastward and strengthen along with the dryline overtaken from the north to south on the leading frontal aboundary .. This will allow for strong to severe storms to fire up along and ahead of the cold front in the warm sector ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms across North Central Texas into portions of the Mid South where DAMAGING WINDS will become the primary threat along with TORRENTIAL RAINFALL bring MODERATE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS REGION with widespread 3 - 5" in the forecast across the Mid-South, locally higher amounts are possible as well ... LARGE to SEVERE SIZED HAIL and an ISOLATED TORNADO or TWO is a given possibility as well .. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL is a good bet for portions of Missouri for late this afternoon and evening hours ... MARGINAL RISK been introduced for this threat SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK and PORTIONS OF MISSOURI ... SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS are highly advised in the threat regions .. Please allow for multiple sources to receive your forecasts, statements, and alerts ... Highly advised and essential to have a NOAA WEATHER RADIO to inform of the latest conditions and threats ... NOAA WEATHER RADIO is the best aresnal in your protection against Mother Nature ... Please be on alert for today's threats! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a frontal boundary extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern Plains as I mentioned above, will proceed eastward to the Eastern Seaboard by Thursday PM ... Showers and thunderstorms will begin development along and ahead of the boundary from the Western Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coastal Region that will proceed eastward across the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast Coastal Regions by Thursday PM .. The rainfall may become heavy at times with these storms ... Rain showers will also develop over portions of the Ohio Valley into portions of the Southern Appalachians that will expand into portions of the Southern Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast by this evening ... The rainfall also expands into the Northern Mid-Atlantic by Thursday PM ... In addition, snowfall will develop over portions of Northern New England by this evening, continuing through Thursday PM ... Snow showers will also develop over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes overnight Wednesday that will expand into portions of the Western Ohio Valley by Thursday PM ... Meanwhile, strong, upper-level energy will aid in producing snow and lower elevation rain showers over portions of the Southwest into portions of the Central/Southern Rockies by this morning ... The snowfall will proceed out of the Southwest by Wednesday evening and expanding over the Central/Southern Rockies before ending overnight Wednesday ... Finally, onshore Pacific flow ahead of the next Pacific storm system will aid in producing rain showers and higher elevation snow showers over portions of the Pacific Northwest and snow shower over portions of the Northern Rockies through Wednesday PM ... Overnight Wednesday into Thursday PM, the upper-level energy associated with the next low pressure storm system will proceed onshore over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California into the Northern Rockies ... On early Thursday AM into Thursday PM, the snow showers and lower elevation rain showers will expand into Central California and the Great Basin while the snowfall over Central California higher elevations will become heavy at times .... HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst, SEMCF/TRAPT National Storm Channel David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has an ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL threat with a few strong to severe storms over north central and northeastern Texas during the afternoon and over portions of southwest and central Texas for tonight .. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a MARGINAL RISK for this .. Be on alert! Our focus, then, turns to Wednesday's outlook, looking more concerning .. with an upper-level trough proceeding across the Rockies with a mid-level flow remaining over the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley .. The cold frontal boundary progressing over this region will form a pre-frontal trough that will go through the ARKLATEX region with a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms expected in the forecast ... The dew points will favor instability in the afternoon hours .. Thunderstorms will then form along and ahead of the boundary in the warm secor ... Rotating thunderstorms with organized multi celluar features are expected .. These will procude ISOLATED LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE and a ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT .. Bigger story is the abnormal amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture feeding the system allowing for torrential rainfall amounts and flash flooding become a real issue in the region already impact by previous rainfall events that has saturated grounds there .. Ongoing flooding issue will be more intensfied by this set up ... The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of Northeastern Texas .. Southern Arkansas .. Far Northern Louisiana ... and Northwestern Mississippi for a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for tomorrow afternoon and evening hours ... MARGINAL RISK will extend from the Southern Plains into the ARKLATEX and Lower Mississippi Valley .. Severe weather precautions will be necessary for this event .. Be sure to have a way of receiving multiple sources for your latest forecast, statements, and severe weather alerts ... A NOAA WEATHER RADIO would be highly essential for an event of this nature ... Please consider investing in the most important tool in notifications of hazarous weather from Mother Nature .. BE ON ALERT! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a strong frontal boundary extending across the Upper Great Lakes southeastward to the Central High Plains and going westward across the Great Basin and Southern California that is proceeding eastward to the Northeast and Central/Southern Plains by tomorrow PM .. This storm system will bring rainfall and higher elevation snowfall over portions of Central/Southern California that extends into the Southwest overnight, and into portions of the Central/Southern Rockeis by Wednesday PM ... Meanwhile, we are watching a moisture feeder from the Western Gulf of Mexico streaming on northward into the Central/Southern Plain by this afternoon .. This moisture proceeds northeastward into the Great Lakes and the Northeast by Wednesday PM .. Showers and thunderstorms will begin development over portions of the Southern Plains for this morning and then expanding into the Lower Mississippi Valley by this evening .. The aforementioned strong frontal boundary proceeds into the Southern Plains .. The showers and thunderstorms proceeds into the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley by Wednesday AM while continuing over portions of the Southern Plains .. The showers and thunderstorms expand into portions of the Southeast by Wednesday PM while continuing over portions of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains ... In addition, rain and snow showers develop along the boundary overnight Tuesday over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes .. The rain showers proceed over the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and the Central/Southern Appalachians along with portions of the Southeast by Wednesday afternoon expanding into portions of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday PM .. Additionally, snowfall will begin to develop over portions of Northern New England by Wednesday afternoon continuing through Wednesday evening ... In the meantime, onshore Pacific flow over the Pacific Northwest aids in the development of rainfall and higher elevation snowfall over the region with the snowfall expanding into portions of the Northern Rockies by Tuesday PM .. On Wednesday, rainfall and higher elevation snowfall begins development over portions of Northern California expanding southward to Central California by Wednesday PM .. HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF/TRAPT Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather outlook has none expected across the Nation .. Although, a few general thunderstorms could be expected for today across portions of the Southeast, Gulf Coast, deep south Texas, and portions of central/western California ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a frontal boundary extending across the Southeastern states into the Central Gulf Coastal Region that will proceed southward into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday PM and linger across portions of Florida into Tuesday PM .. The system is expected to produce rain showers and thunderstorms along portions of the central/eastern Gulf Coastal Region through this afternoon ... Rain showers will also develop over portions of the Tennessee Valley/Southeast for today that will proceed eastward to the Southeastern Coastal Regions by tonight and off the coast by the overnight hours ... Another frontal boundary is extending from the Northern High Plains to portions of the Great Basin/Northern California that will proceed eastward to the Upper Great Lakes/Central Plains into the Southwest by Tuesday PM .. The system will produce snowfall over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies and portions of Central/Northern California also for today ... As the storm system proceeds inland, the snow levels are expected to lower over the western third of the Nation .. The snowfall will end over portions of the Pacific Northwest briefly for the overnight beginning over portions of Washington state by Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours .. The snowfall will continue over portions of the Northern Rockies into portions of the Great Basin through Tuesday PM .. The snowfall also proceeds into some of the coastal mountains of Southern California Coastal Regions for this afternoon into Tuesday PM .. Finally, for this evening, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico begins to proceed northward over the Southern Plains extending northeastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley .. With the aid of upper-level jet dynamics, showers and thunderstorms will develop over portions of the Southern Plains, a few could become strong to severe by Tuesday afternoon expanding northward into the Central Plains and eastward into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday PM ... For Wednesday and Thursday, we will be watching this system as the potential for severe weather and warmer temperatures with the conditions for instability and helicity begins to rise across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley, stay tuned! HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster, Lead Weather Analyst / SEMCF and TRAPT David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has some thunderstorms expected mainly from Texas eastward along the central Gulf Coastal Region to the Carolinas for today ... A few of these storms may become capable of some hail, localized damaging winds, and a brief or weak tornado or two, mainly across Southeastern Texas and the Hill Country for today, and then across Southern Louisiana into far western Florida Panhandle for tonight .. With this threat, The Storm Prediction Center has placed a MARGINAL RISK ... BE ON THE ALERT! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a frontal boundary extending from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley and then to the Central Gulf Coastal Region proceeding eastward off the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic Coastal Region by Monday AM while lingering over portions of the Southeast through Monday PM ... The system will produce rainfall along and ahead of this boundary from the Great Lakes into portions of the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the Tennessee Valley that will procedd off the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic Coastal Region overnight Sunday .. Rainfall will continue over the Southeast/Tennessee Valley that will proceed eastard to the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern Coastal Region by Monday PM ... Showers and thunderstorms will be confined to Central/Western Gulf Coastal Region on Monday AM and proceeding to portions of the Southeast/Eastern Gulf Coastal Region by Monday PM ... Snowfall will develop over portions of Northern New England for today continuing through Monday AM .. In addition, spotty areas of rain/freezing rain will develop over portions of Northern New England on Sunday into Sunday PM .. Additionally, snowfall develops over portions of the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley that will lift northward into Canada for overnight Sunday ... Meanwhile, a frontal boundary proceeding onshore over the Pacific Northwest will proceed inland to the Northern Plains into the Northern Rockies/Great Basin and into Southern California by Monday PM .. The storm system will produce rain and higher elevation snowfall over the Pacific Northwest and snowfall over the Northern Rockies that will expand southward into portions of the Central Rockies/Great Basin into portions of Central/Northern California Coastal Region by tonight and into Central California by Monday AM into Monday PM .. Furthermore, upper-level energy over portions of the Central/Southern Rockies and Great Basin/Southwest will proceed eastward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Sunday PM .. The energy will aid in developing snowfall over portions of the Central/Southern Rockies and portions of the Great Basin that will end by Sunday PM ... HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has a very concerning manner in which everyone in the threat regions need to pay very close attention to this event .. This has a potential to be destructive throughout the ARKLATEX into the Mid to Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Southern Ohio Valley ... The Storm Prediction Center has issued the following statements: ENHANCED RISK for severe storms for today and tonight across the majority of Northeastern Texas ... Northwestern Louisiana ... Arkansas ... Southeastern Missouri .. Southern Illinois ... Far Southwestern Indiana ... Western Kentucky ... Western Tennessee ... Far Northwestern Alabama ... Northern Mississippi ... and Northern Louisiana ... SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for today and tonight SURROUNDING the ENHANCED RISK and extending westward into Northern Texas ... MARGINAL RISK for severe storms for today and tonight SURROUNDING the ENHANCED and SLIGHT RISK regions ... The forecast is calling for a good bet of severe storms developing now through tonight in the highlighted regions above ... Good bet for DAMAGING WINDS exceeding over 60 mph locally with much higher gusts possible due to a strong, low to mid level jet streak extending over 70 kts in some places ... With the vertical shear and helicity in places .. FEW TORNADOES ARE A GOOD BET, I can't rule out one STRONG TORNADO in the line .. Something we need to watch very closely as this event goes on today ... HAIL will also become a problematic issue across Texas and ArkLaTex region with large to severe size hail a good bet ... We are definitely see some property damage along with trees and power line damage .. Some widespread power outages due to the winds are a good bet ... HEAVY RAINFALL to TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS are LIKELY and this will result in FLASH FLOODING HIGH POTENTIALS in the threat mentioned regions .. Another big issue that is currently ongoing as we speak from the previous rain events ... The biggest location of concerns from what I've gathered from the models, soundings, hodographs, and BUFKIT are regions of Northeastern Texas, majority of Arkansas (especially Central and Southwestern Arkansas) and Western Tennessee as the bulk of the threat ... This threat could expand as the updates come out later today .. Definitely something to be on the watch out for ... SEVERE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS are HIGHLY ADVISED for today's forecast .. Please have multiple sources to receive the latest forecasts, statements, and possible issuances of watches and definite warnings ... FOLKS PLEASE without QUESTION, TAKE THE ADVICE of your LOCAL METEOROLOGISTS and WEATHER TEAMS on the seriousness of this event .. THIS IS ONE NOT TO TAKE LIGHTLY .. When warnings are issues ADHERE TO THEM and SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!!! The forecasting team of the National Storm Channel will be updating the forecast around the clock today and keeping you all posted with the latest developments .... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a wave of low pressure over the Southern High Plains that is deepening rapidly as I typed this and progressing for the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday AM and continuing to proceed to James Bay, Canada by Sunday PM ... This system is producing snowfall over portions of the Central/Southern Rockies into the Central Plains that will proceed northeastward into the Upper Midwest by tonight ... By Sunday evening, the snowfall will proceed out of the Upper Great Lakes into Canada .. The snowfall will be heavy at times over the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes for the overnight Saturday into Sunday ... Addtionally, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the associated frontal boundary over poritons of the Southern Plains into the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys into portions of the Ohio Valley by tonight ... The showers and thunderstorms will proceed eastward to the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast by Sunday PM, while continuing in threat over the Central/Western Gulf Coastal Region ... In addition, rainfall will develop over portions of the Eastern/Northern Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians for this morning proceeding into the Mid-Atlantic by this evening with a few embedded thunderstorms .. The rainfall will proceed into portions of the Northeast by Sunday ... Areas of freezing rain/rain will develop over portions of the interior Northern New England on Sunday as well ... Meanwhile, one area of upper-level energy followed by a second will proceed over the Pacific Northwest proceeding southeastward to the Central/Southern Plains by Sunday PM ... With the addition of onshore, Pacific flow, coastal rainfall and higher elevation snowfall will begin development over the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies through Sunday PM ... For today, however, coastal rainfall and snowfall will begin in the Great Basin and Central Rockies by tonight into Sunday ... A second surge of coastal rainfall and higher elevation snowfall will proceed into the Northwest on Sunday into Sunday evening .. The snow levels will lower with this system for both today and Sunday .. Be aware! HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! We will be having updates on the seriousness of the severe weather event unfolding across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and Dixie Alley throughout today and tonight .. Stay Tuned! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has a few strong to marginally severe storms possible as a couple of rounds will likely impact the Southern Plains through tonight .. VERY LIMITED RISK for an elevated severe storm or two could evolve over central and northern Texas just prior to the bigger event for tomorrow .... TOMORROW'S EVENT IS TURNING MORE SIGNIFICANT!!! THIS COULD BECOME OUR FIRST MAJOR SEVERE STORM EVENT OF THE 2018 SEASON ... ENHANCED RISK for severe storms expected for portions of the ARKLATEX region into the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley impacting the metro regions of Memphis, Little Rock, Jackson TN, North Little Rock and Jonesboro ... SLIGHT RISK has been introduced for portions of Northeast Texas into the Lower and Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys which includes the metro regions of Dallas, Nashville, Arlington TX, Plano and Garland TX ... Finally, a MARGINAL RISK been introduced from portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley extending an axis north-northeastward towards to the Ohio Valley and this would include metro regions of Fort Worth, New Orleans, Louisville KY, Lexington and Fayette KY, and Birmingham .... TORNADOES, WIND DAMAGE, and HAIL will be POSSIBLE with the MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING from the early to mid afternoon through the evening hours ... We are expecting a significant shortwave trough ejecting out of the region of the Central Plains into the highlighted regions .. What we are expected is deepening of the trough and the associated surface low going negative tilt .. This would bring a warm frontal boundary northward throughout the region with a strengthening, low-level jet deepening the event to transport the rich Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region with low 60s dewpoints indicated on the forecast models ... The question remains, just how much instability could develop .. Right now, it is a marginal threat for this to persist due to two things ... CAPE being BELOW value and widespread cloud coverage in the warm sector ... Although, strong to severe storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the strong cold frontal boundary through the region ... If the jet streak can get more strength along with the vertical shear and instability, we could see a decent DAMAGING WIND EVENT along with a FEW TORNADOES .. There could be an upgrade on this event IF the thermodynamic can get more impressive in the environment .. This is something we definitely need to watch very closely and the forecasting team will keep you all up to the latest on this distinct development ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has a storm system over the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley that will proceed northeastward into Southeastern Canada for the overnight ... This system will pull a frontal boundary extending from Western Ohio Valley to the Western Gulf Coastal Regions that will proceed eastward off the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic Coastal Regions then westward to a new wave of low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley by Saturday PM ... Snowfall will develop over portions of the Northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes that will lift northeastward into Canada by this evening ... Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary from the Western Gulf Coast/Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley that will lift northward into portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley by this evening ... Additional showers and thunderstorms will also develop over portions of the Central Gulf Coastal Regions by this evening ... In addition, rainfall will develop over poritons of the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic that will proceed into portions of the Northeast by this evening with snowfall developing over poritons of Northern Maine ... The rainfall will proceed off the Northeast Coastal Region/Northern Mid-Atlantic Coastal Regions by Saturday AM ... A region of rain/freezing rain will develop over portions of the interior New England by now through the evening ... Meanwhile, a developing wave of low pressure over the Southern High Plains will proceed northeastward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Saturday PM ... The associated frontal boundary will proceed from the Southern Rockies/Southwest northeastward to the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coastal Region by Saturday PM ... The storm system will produce snowfall over portions of the Great Basin/Southwest and the Central Rockies that will proceed northeastward into portions of the Central Plains and Central/Southern Rockies by Saturday AM ... The snowfall will continue to proceed into portions of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday PM ... Overnight Friday, expecting showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the associated boundary over the Southern Plains that will proceed into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday PM .. Refer to the above Severe Weather Forecast Summary for details ... Elsewhere, two regions of upper-level energy will proceed into the Pacific Northwest overnight Friday into Saturday AM continuing into portions of the Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin by Saturday PM .. Additionally, onshore flow will develop over the Pacific Northwest for today continuing into Saturday PM .. The energy wave and onshore flow pattern will aid in production of coastal rainfall and higher elevation snowfall over portions of the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Northern Rockies by this evening .. The snowfall axis will expand into poritons of the Central/Northern Rockies and Northern California/Great Basin on Saturday into Saturday PM .. Coastal rainfall will also proceed into portions of Northern California on Saturday into Saturday PM as well ... HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! We will be having updates on the seriousness of the severe weather event unfolding across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and Dixie Alley throughout today and tonight .. Stay Tuned! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has a few strong to marginally severe storms possible for today, mainly across north-central Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas where the main threat is mainly severe hail becoming possible .. Remain on alert! Our focus then turns for the weekend with a complex storm system developing and giving a concerning Severe Weather event for Saturday across a large region .. The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather across portions of Eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys ... MARGINAL RISK is expected for portions of the Southern Plains through the Ohio Valley and Southeastern states ... We are expecting a significant shortwave trough ejecting out of the region of the Central Plains into the highlighted regions .. What we are expected is deepening of the trough and the associated surface low going negative tilt .. This would bring a warm frontal boundary northward throughout the region with a strengthening, low-level jet deepening the event to transport the rich Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region with low 60s dewpoints indicated on the forecast models ... The question remains, just how much instability could develop .. Right now, it is a marginal threat for this to persist due to two things ... CAPE being BELOW value and widespread cloud coverage in the warm sector ... Although, strong to severe storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the strong cold frontal boundary through the region ... If the jet streak can get more strength along with the vertical shear and instability, we could see a decent DAMAGING WIND EVENT along with a FEW TORNADOES .. There could be an upgrade on this event IF the thermodynamic can get more impressive in the environment .. This is something we definitely need to watch very closely and the forecasting team will keep you all up to the latest on this distinct development ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the majority of the Western areas of the Nation remaining in a cold, active persistent weather pattern through the end of the week ahead thanks to a series of multiple impulses dropping southward out of the Canada and reinforcing the broad, upper-level trough entrenched over the region .. Snowfall will spread across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and into the Rockies .. Snowfall will be heavy at times as well across the higher terrain in northern California, southern Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and for portions of the Central Rockies .. The cold airmass entrenched over this region will keep the temperatures almost 25 degrees BELOW late February standards ... The waves of energy exiting the Front Range will proceed into the Plains where a quasi-stationary boundary extends from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic .. Multiple waves of heavy rainfall will be in the forecast as an influx of warm, Gulf moisture advects northbound along the boundary layer ... This rainfall is expected to occur over a board region already saturated from the recent excessive rainfall event .. A SLIGHT to MODERATE risk for FLASH FLOODING main stem river flooding will persist through the end of the week ahead over this region .. In the colder sector, we can expect widespread snowfall for portions of the Plains, Midwest, and Upper Mississippi Valley -- numerous WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for these regions ... Majority of the Eastern Seaboard lies in the warm sector of this system and will continue to have balmy temperatures topping off in the 70s and 80s, whereas, the central portions of the Nation will be mainly below freezing with temperatures as much as 25 degrees BELOW late February standards ... Finally, in regards to the threat of winter weather, there will be an approach of a wave of low pressure from the Tennessee Valley for today that will actually interact with this sufficent colder air entrenched over the Upper Ohio Valley, far northern Mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast for a stripe of some accumulating snowfall and ice .. Meanwhile, there will also be a swath of accumulating snowfall and ice across portions of the Central Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes for today into Friday as low pressure will proceed northeastward up across the regions highlighted ... HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has a few thunderstorms in the outlook from Texas to the Ohio Valley ahead of the eastward progressing cold frontal boundary through tonight .. A few storms may become strong to severe across portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana and Mississippi .. Threat includes LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS and PERHAPS A TORNADO .. Remain on Alert! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has excessive rainfall and AREAL FLOODING continuing from portions of the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region as warm, Gulf of Mexico moisture lifts northward along a slow-progressive cold frontal boundary .. Colder air behind the frontal boundary will allow for snowfall, or possibly some wintry mix/freezing rain .. Numerous WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect from central Texas to Illinois .. MINOR FLOODING is being observed across western portions of Tennessee and Mid-Mississippi Valleys .. Several locations across the Lower Great Lakes/Western Ohio Valley have MINOR FLOODING ongoing and any additional rainfall will likely exacerbate the situation ... Temperatures across the majority of the Eastern Seaboard will be well above normal for mid to late February standards with highs in the 70s with some lower 80s possible, and this has the potential to set record highs ... These late Spring-like temperatures will be short-lived ... The strong frontal boundary over the central portions of the Nation will finally proceed the Central/Northern Appalachians and colder air will spill over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region by the end of the week ahead ... Finally, upper-level energy will proceed through the Pacific Northwest and will spread snow showers from the coastal regions inland and south to northern California .. Majority of the West will have temperatures warmer than seasonal average ... HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has a few thunderstorms expected in the outlook across a broad region of the south-central portions of the Nation into the Midwest, some storms could become strong to severe for late in the afternoon and evening across ARK LA TEX vicinity and Ozarks where a MARGINAL RISK been issued by The Storm Prediction Center for ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS .. Be on the alert! NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the outlook for the next couple of days being featured by a quasi stationary boundary over the Central portions of the Nation bringing the widespread rainfall and some thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and on eastward; with heavy snowfall across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley .. A narrow transition zone will set up in the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley towards the Great Lakes where freezing rain is a possibility .. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect from Nebraska to the Dakotas and eastward into northern Michigan ... Northwestern Nebraska to central South Dakota has WINTER STORM WARNINGS in place ... FLASH FLOOD WATCHES, FLOOD WARNINGS and ADVISORIES are in effect from northeastern Texas to southern Missouri and for the Lower Great Lakes region ... Forecast calling for several inches of rainfall expected along a stalled out frontal boundary over a long duration continuing all week into the weekend .. Run off from the abundance of rainfall will cause regional creeks, streams, and rivers to rise which may lead to significant flooding issues and overflowed banks .. URBANIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR with this excessive rainfall ... Finally, upper-level energy just off the Pacific Northwest Coastal Region will proceed southward to off the Central/Southern California Coastal Regions by Wednesday .. Additional upper-level energy will proceed over the Pacific Northwest for this evening into Wednesday spreading some snowfall to portions of the Pacific Northwest Coastal regions for this afternoon transitioning to rain showers along the Northwest and Northern California Coastal Regions by tonight .. The snowfall will continue just inland over portions of the Northwest mountain ranges into the interior Northern California mountains through Wednesday ... HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather has a few strong to severe storms a possibility over the Southern Plains, mainly for later this afternoon and this evening as The Storm Prediction Center placed a MARGINAL RISK in place ... Damaging Winds and an isolated Tornado or Two could become possible with the dryline mixing eastward into Western Oklahoma and Western Texas during the afternoon before retreating overnight as the lee cyclone becomes established over the Central High Plains .. Be on alert and listen closely to the latest forecasts and alerts ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has widespread snowfall persisting through Tuesday across portions of the Wasatchs, Central/Northern Rockies and into the High Plains as a strong cold frontal boundary proceeds southward through the Rockies and into the Central portions of the Nation .. Accumulations are expected to reach heavy amounts at times, especially across the Central Rockies .. Arctic air will continue to entrenche into the northern states allowing for a significant drop in temperatures over the next couple of days .. Another cold frontal boundary will sag southward from Canada to reinforce the snow generator across the Northern Plains and portions of the Upper Great Lakes .. A vast area from coastal Oregon into Northern California extending all the way to upper Michigan have WINTER STORM WARNINGS and WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES .. The frontal boundary's progression through the Central regions of the Nation will be fairly slow progressive over the next few days which will set the stage for a potentially long duration wet persisting pattern for the Central/Southern Plains and the Mississippi Valley .. A steady plume of warm Gulf of Mexico moisture will transport northward along this boundary .. Scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Texas to the Great Lakes region .. An axis of 2 - 4" is forecast from eastern Texas to lower Michigan, with pockets of 5+" over northeast Texas through the Ozarks .. Thunderstorms will have little movement and/or track over the same region; which will greatly increase the flooding threat .. A MODERATE RISK for excessive rainfall is in effect for Tuesday into Wednesday ... Finally, additionally along the rain/snow line, rain and freezing rain will develop over portions of the Central Plains and into portions of the Upper Great Lakes for today through Tuesday ... HAVE A GREAT MONDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's severe weather is not expected anywhere, nationwide .. However, a few thunderstorms are a possibility from the southern Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley for today into tonight's outlook ... Showers and sproadic thunderstorms are a possibility with lightning across northern California and Oregon coastal regions into the interior West ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has heavy precipitation on the agenda for portions of the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies expecting to spread southward into California, Great Basin, and portions of the Central Rockies as a surface cold frontal boundary plunges through ... Strong winds expected in the forecast to cause blowing and drifting snow .. Majority of the region west of the Continental Divide will have WARNINGS due to the winter weather expected with WINTER STORM WARNINGS, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, and HIGH WIND WARNINGS in effect ... This same frontal system will help to generate a few showers and thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to the Northeast by the mid-week ... An axis of higher rainfall amounts will align from northeast Texas through the Middle Mississippi Valley and to the Great Lakes region as this frontal boundary stalls out over the Central portions of the Nation ... Forecast amounts in the axis will be in the range of two to as much as four inches with some localized areas hitting near five inches .. Flooding concerns will be elevated for Tuesday with SLIGHT to MODERATE risks been issued by the Climate Prediction Center .. An area of rain/freezing rain will begin to develop across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley proceeding into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday PM ... Travel will likely become hazardous in this region of the transition zone ... HAVE A GREAT SUNDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, Lead Forecaster and Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer |