SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's Severe Weather threat for this afternoon and evening highlights a MARGINAL RISK for a couple of severe cells, mainly strong storms with possible GUSTY to DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAIL for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley ... BE ON ALERT! Our focus turns to Sunday's Severe Weather Threat ... A lot of uncertainities lie in the forecast for the severe weahter threat across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes ... Timing of the cold frontal boundary passage along with the placement will give the hint to where the worse of the threat will be .. Also, keep in mind, we have a very strong Southerly Flow with Gulf of Mexico moisture transport ahead of the system allowing for this threat to persist ... Steep lapse rates and elevated mixed layer instability is favoring this threat to persistant ... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of LARGE TO SEVERE SIZE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL, DAMAGING TO DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, and ISOLATED TORNADOES are in the forecast for the Lower Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley ... The Storm Prediction Center lists the following: (SUBJECTIVE TO UPDATES and COULD POSSIBLY CHANGE FREQUENTLY) -- ENHANCED RISK in place for portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Northwestern Ohio ... -- SLIGHT RISK across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes ... -- MARGINAL RISK SURROUNDING the SLIGHT RISK in the same region ... Please follow your local National Weather Service office for the latest forecasts, statements, and possible issuance of alerts on Sunday when this threat becomes more apparent ... The forecasting team of the National Storm Channel will keep you all posted on the latest developments and forecasts as they are released ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Both the Atlantic and Pacific basins are relatively quiet and NOT expecting any tropical activity in the next 48 hours ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has A frontal boundary from the Northern Appalachians into the Ohio Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains will proceed off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for tonight's outlook and then the Carolinas by Saturday AM ... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the boundary from the Southern Ohio Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley by tonight ... The showers and storms will continue over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic through Saturday PM .. In addition, rain showers will develop along the frontal zone from portions of the Lower Great Lakes to the Northern Ohio Valley that will proceed off the Northeast/Northern Mid-Atlantic coastal region by late tonight ... Meanwhile, we are watching another frontal boundary from the Northern High Plains to roughly going westward into Northern California and the Pacific Northwest that will slowly progress southward to the Central Plains and going westward to the Great Basin by Saturday PM ... On Saturday into Sunday, the forecast is showing a warm frontal boundary (one to watch very closely) lifting north bound from Northern California to the Northern Rockies that will continue over portions of the Great Basin into the Central Rockies into Saturday PM ... In the meantime, snow showers will begin to develop over portions of the Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Rockies into portions of the Northern High Plains that will then continue onward over portions of the regions through Saturday PM ... For today though, the light snow showers will develop over portions of the Northern Plains that will then expand the axis eastward into the Upper Great Lakes for your overnight ... Moisture will then flow northward over the Middle Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley for late on Friday evening going into the overnight and Saturday PM that will aid in development of rain and snow showers for the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Great Lakes for Saturday into Saturday PM ... In the meantime, onshore persistant flow off the Pacific is expected to aid in development of rain showers over the Pacific Northwest and snow showers for the Cascades through late tonight into Saturday ... Onshore flow will then end ... Onshore flow then proceed into Northern California for Friday PM into Saturday AM while the onshore flow proceeds into Central California on Saturday into Saturday PM .. Rain showers and higher elevation snow showers will then develop over Northern California through Saturday afternoon ... Mainly rain showers expected over Central California with snowfall over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevadas for Saturday into Sunday's forecast ... A lot of weather to watch closely and monitor ... HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer
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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's Severe Weather threat for this afternoon and evening highlights a MARGINAL RISK for a couple potential supercells or two with ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE for Northern Mississippi into Northwestern Alabama with the time frame of 4 to 10 PM CDT for the threat ... Be sure to remain on alert and have MULTIPLE SOURCES to receive updated forecasts, statements, and weather alerts! TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Both the Atlantic and Pacific basins are relatively quiet and NOT expecting any tropical activity in the next 48 hours ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has the main event for the remainder of the week being the transistioning phase to unsettle and stormy pattern across the majority of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and portions of the Northern Plains with a strong trough building and low pressure arriving in the Pacific Northwest which shall usher in some substantially cooler temperatures and a broad amount of precipitation including heavy snowfall .. Some of the heaviest snowfall is concentrating on the Cascades and the Bitterroots of the Northern Rockies .. Some of the heaviest snowfall is also expected to set an axis across the Northern Plains through the end of the week ahead as the low gradually proceeds the Intermountain West ... Temperatures are expected to be well below normal for early November standards as much as 25 degrees in some areas .. By the weekend, expecting some heavy rainfall in the forecast with the same storm system to impact Northern California as this cold frontal boundary associated with the system settles on Southward along the West Coast ... Good news there. Focusing our attent to the Eastern and Southern fringes of the Nation, we are expecting a very warm surge of air and transport of Gulf of Mexico moisture into the vicinties .. Southerly flow ahead of the cold frontal boundary will allow temperatures to soar as much as 25 degrees above early November standards across the Gulf Coastal states with a touch of humidity to bring some instability into the atmosphere as well ... A frontal zone proceeding across the Midwest will proceed into the Ohio Valley and help to focus a very heavy axis of precipitation in the form of showers and a few thunderstorms ... Heaviest of the rainfall is focusing on the Great Lakes where up to 3 to possibly 4" locally is a possibility as this traverses the region ... In the wake of the cold frontal boundary, temperatures are expected to return to normal for November, or slightly below for the same regions mentioned above ... HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster / Lead Weather Analyst David L Saurer SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
Today's Severe Weather threat for this afternoon and evening highlights a BRIEF TORNADO and LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS possible for Southwestern Louisiana and Far Southeastern Texas ... The Storm Prediction Center has placed a MARGINAL RISK in that region .. So be on alert and make sure to have MULTIPLE SOURCES to receive your forecast and alerts ... TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Both the Atlantic and Pacific basins are relatively quiet and NOT expecting any tropical activity in the next 48 hours ... NATIONAL FORECAST: Today's outlook has rain showers and storms lingering over portions of the Southern Plains and Central Gulf States as a frontal system weakens over the vicinity .. Pockets of heavy rainfall are possible along the boundary mainly over Eastern Texas and Louisiana giving the threat of FLASH FLOODING a possibility .. The central low pressure and leading edge of the frontal boundary is expected to continue proceeding to life northeastward through the Great Lakes region and into Southern Canada .. While the precipitation over the majority of the Midwest and Upper Mississippi Valley will fall as rain showers, it is forecast to switch to snow showers for the arrowhead of Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin .. This region could see some accumulations and could see some WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES issued as well ... Cooler temperatures from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast for today is expecting the precipitation to be a mix .. By tomorrow, expecting the temperatures to warm up with readings almost 15 degrees ABOVE NORMAL ahead of a second low pressure system approaching from the West ... Along the Rockies, we are noticing multiple waves of energy in the forecast to proceed aloft to push a cold frontal boundary through the Northern Rockies, Central and Northern Plains, and the Upper Midwest over the next few days .. Daytime rain showers and overnight accumulating snowfall is persistent in the forecast, especially across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley .. Generally, calling for accumulations of two to four inches in the lower elevations of these regions and higher amounts in the higher terrain .. Behind the frontal boundary, temperatures will be cooling off to around 10 to 15 degrees BELOW NORMAL ... Finally, in the Western areas of the Nation, a strong, upper-level system dropping down along the Western Canadian Coastal Region expecting precipitation in the Pacific Northwest by this afternoon ... Expecting the forecast for heavy snowfall in the mountains especially in Washington Cascades with rain in the valley ... Amounts will be near or exceeding a foot in accumulations for the next several days .. So be on alert there ... HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY and REMEMBER to REMAIN WEATHER AWARE! Respectfully Yours, SEMCF Lead Forecaster and Weather Analyst David L Saurer |